Trump prediction markets are tradeable contracts that settle on specific actions, statements, and decisions Donald Trump takes as the sitting US president.
Two contracts on different exchanges can both be “Trump impeachment” markets and resolve in completely different ways. One might pay out only if the House votes to impeach within a calendar window; another might require Senate removal; a third might trigger on the introduction of articles. Pricing drifts across exchanges because of these settlement differences, not because the underlying probability is moving.
Next to sports markets, what Trump says or does accounts for a significant amount of trading. Combined, these markets generate roughly $200M–$300M per week in volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, with major news cycles pushing past $500M.
| Key details | |
|---|---|
| Most active markets | Mention markets, Cabinet and AG appointment contracts, tariff and trade policy markets |
| Trump prediction market volume | Roughly $200M–$300M per week. Trump’s 2026 State of the Union drove $17M+ in combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume — the largest political speech event prediction markets have ever priced |
| Conflict of interest | Donald Trump Jr. is a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi and sits on Polymarket’s advisory board, with his firm 1789 Capital invested in Polymarket |
Most common Trump market categories
The mix of available Trump contracts shifts with news cycles and exchange listing decisions, but a few categories appear consistently across venues.
Impeachment markets
These settle on whether the US House of Representatives votes to impeach Trump a third time — not whether the Senate later votes to remove him. The two are separate contracts on most exchanges, and they price independently.
Legal markets
Contracts in this category cover ongoing Trump litigation — pending lawsuits, appeals, and Supreme Court cases tied to the administration. New markets open as cases move through the courts, with resolution often tied to specific decision dates rather than case outcomes alone.
Mention markets
These cover Trump’s verbal comments and his social media posts. Some contracts separate the two channels; others combine them into a single market.
Live probability on What Trump Will Say this Week.
Personnel markets
These cover Cabinet departures, replacement nominations, and whether nominees clear Senate confirmation. Supreme Court vacancy markets fall in this category as well.
Removal markets
These settle on whether the Senate votes to remove Trump from office — a separate, later step from House impeachment. Most contracts have a calendar deadline; if no removal vote occurs by then, the market resolves NO.
Trade policy markets
Tariff markets are the most active here — whether Trump imposes new tariffs, adjusts rates on specific goods or countries, or rescinds existing ones. Trade agreement markets (USMCA, new bilateral deals) sit in the same category.
How prediction market contracts work
Each contract trades between $0.00 and $1.00, with the price representing the market’s implied probability of the event. A YES contract priced at $0.65 means the market is implying a 65% chance the event happens. The corresponding NO contract trades around $0.35 — the two sides sum to roughly $1.00 minus the bid-ask spread.
When a market resolves, winning contracts pay out $1.00 and losing contracts pay $0.00. Profit is the difference between your entry price and the resolution payout.
Take a Trump mention market priced at $0.91 on YES. If you buy at that price and the mention occurs within the contract terms, you receive $1.00 — a $0.09 profit per contract. If it doesn’t occur, the contract resolves at $0.00 and you lose your $0.91 entry. The reverse applies if you bought NO at $0.09: a YES resolution costs you the $0.09; a NO resolution pays $1.00.
Prices move on order flow. Heavy buying on YES pushes the YES price up and the NO price down. The closer a contract trades to $1.00, the more confident the market is in that outcome — and the worse the risk-reward for entering late on the favored side.
Prediction markets with Trump contracts
Kalshi carries the deepest catalog of Trump contracts for US users, covering everything from Cabinet appointments to specific policy actions. Volume on individual markets is uneven, but the variety is unmatched among CFTC-regulated venues.
DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts both carry Trump contracts as well, though their listings skew toward the highest-volume markets rather than the long tail. Polymarket — which resumed US operations in December 2025 after CFTC approval — is the other major venue and tends to carry the highest international liquidity on Trump-related contracts.
How Trump markets resolve
Resolution language is contract-specific, and the differences matter. Identical-sounding markets on different exchanges can settle on different events, different deadlines, and different sourcing standards. Read the resolution criteria before entering, not after.
The clearest example is the impeachment-vs-removal distinction.
Trump impeachment markets vs. Trump removal markets
Impeachment is a House vote; removal is a Senate vote. They are two separate processes, decided by two separate chambers, and prediction markets price them as two separate contracts.
The House votes first on articles of impeachment, requiring a simple majority. If that vote passes, the president has been impeached. That is the end of the impeachment process — it does not, on its own, remove the president from office.
If the House impeaches, the Senate then conducts a trial. House members serve as prosecutors; senators sit as jurors. At the trial’s conclusion, the Senate votes on removal. Removal requires a two-thirds supermajority — a far steeper threshold than impeachment.
Impeachment markets resolve on the House vote alone. Removal markets resolve on the Senate vote alone. A YES on impeachment implies nothing about a removal market; the two are independent outcomes priced separately, and the spread between them frequently exceeds 50 cents.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket for Trump markets
The split between the two largest exchanges is narrower than it was a year ago. Polymarket regained US access in December 2025 after the CFTC issued an Amended Order of Designation, ending the offshore-only window that had constrained American users since 2022. Both exchanges now list deep Trump catalogs for US users.
Kalshi’s contracts skew toward administrative and policy events — Cabinet appointments, executive actions, meetings with foreign leaders. Polymarket carries deep international liquidity on the same Trump-related questions and tends to list more contracts framed around specific dated outcomes.
A conflict-of-interest question hangs over both. Donald Trump Jr. is a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi and also sits on Polymarket’s advisory board, with his firm 1789 Capital holding a financial stake in Polymarket. The dual role across two competing exchanges has drawn scrutiny from regulators and reporters covering the sector.
War-related markets concerning Trump
Federal statutes bar US-regulated exchanges from listing contracts on armed conflicts. Polymarket continues to list war-related markets internationally, though its US-facing catalog is restricted accordingly.
Kalshi works around this with adjacent markets — whether the US will resume control of the Panama Canal, whether it will acquire territory in Greenland — but those contracts settle on negotiated transactions, not military action. The federal restriction on direct armed-conflict contracts is unlikely to lift without legislative change.
What moves Trump market prices
Trump markets resolve on confirmed, publicly reported events — but prices move long before resolution. Cabinet interviews, congressional statements, and on-the-record comments from administration officials all feed into pricing as traders try to read the direction of decisions before they’re announced.
Polling and approval-rating shifts move volume on longer-dated markets, particularly those tied to congressional control or the 2028 nominee field. Sudden swings in approval send volume rippling across the entire Trump-adjacent catalog — traders chase the Trump tag first and refine later.
Related markets
Trump’s role as president links his markets to a broader set of contracts. Movement in any of the following can trigger repricing across Trump-specific markets.
2026 US House majority markets
House control is tightly coupled with Trump impeachment markets — a Democratic majority dramatically raises the probability of a third impeachment vote. Trump’s approval rating moves these markets in turn, since Republican House candidates run partly on the administration’s record.
2026 US Senate majority markets
Senate control drives both removal market pricing and the broader nominee-confirmation catalog. A 60-vote majority changes the math on legislative passage; a two-thirds majority changes the math on removal. Both directly affect prices on related Trump contracts.
2028 US presidential election markets
Trump is term-limited, but his approval rating shapes the eventual Republican nominee’s odds. Several markets handicap whether that nominee will be a Trump family member, with prices that move on every signal from the family’s political and business activities.
Truth Predicts
Trump Media announced plans last fall to launch its own prediction markets exchange under the Truth Predicts brand. Trump’s majority ownership of Trump Media creates a structural conflict — if Truth Predicts lists markets connected to Trump’s own actions, the resolution authority sits with a company he controls.
How Truth Predicts handles this in practice will determine its credibility relative to Kalshi and Polymarket. Independent oracle integration, third-party resolution sources, or a self-imposed exclusion of Trump-related contracts are the available paths; the platform’s choice will be the first thing to watch when contracts go live.