2026 World Cup Odds: Spain Favorite at 15.5% Prediction Markets

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2026 World Cup Odds (Winner)

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Updated 20 minutes ago · 1:40 AM PST

Spain is the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup at prediction markets with 15.5%, or +545 odds. England trades at 14.4% (+593) and France at 12.4% (+705). The World Cup winner contract has generated $2.2M in trading volume, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. Settlement is on July 20, 2026—one day after the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.Our 2026 FIFA World Cup odds tracker aggregates live pricing using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), with hourly updates

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Largest Spread

0.87%

England

Consensus Leader

15.5%

Spain

24H Volume (Share)

$2.2M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Spain

Vol $49.1K Spread 1.0%

Agg 15.5%

↓ -0.1%

K 16.5%

P 15.5%

Kalshi 16.5%

Vol $689 16–17¢

Polymarket 15.5%

Vol $48.4K 15–16¢

England

Vol $25.8K Spread 2.0%

Agg 14.4%

↑ +0.2%

P 14.5%

K 12.5%

Polymarket 14.5%

Vol $25.0K 14–15¢

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $805 12–13¢

France

Vol $5.4K Spread 1.0%

Agg 12.4%

↓ -0.1%

P 12.5%

K 11.5%

Polymarket 12.5%

Vol $5.0K 12–13¢

Kalshi 11.5%

Vol $414 11–12¢

Argentina

Vol $11.9K Spread 1.0%

Agg 10.5%

— +0.0%

P 10.5%

K 9.5%

Polymarket 10.5%

Vol $11.8K 10–11¢

Kalshi 9.5%

Vol $95 9–10¢

Brazil

Vol $29.7K Spread 0.0%

Agg 9.5%

— +0.0%

K 9.5%

P 9.5%

Kalshi 9.5%

Vol $218 9–10¢

Polymarket 9.5%

Vol $29.5K 9–10¢

Portugal

Vol $21.7K Spread 1.3%

Agg 7.3%

↓ -0.1%

K 8.5%

P 7.2%

Kalshi 8.5%

Vol $116 8–9¢

Polymarket 7.2%

Vol $21.6K 7.2–7.3¢

Germany

Vol $21.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 6.1%

— +0.0%

K 6.5%

P 6.1%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $133 6–7¢

Polymarket 6.1%

Vol $21.7K 6–6.2¢

Netherlands

Vol $18.0K Spread 0.2%

Agg 3.4%

↓ -0.1%

K 3.5%

P 3.4%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $53 3–4¢

Polymarket 3.4%

Vol $17.9K 3.3–3.4¢

Norway

Vol $23.6K Spread 0.8%

Agg 2.8%

↑ +0.1%

K 3.5%

P 2.8%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $6 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.8%

Vol $23.6K 2.7–2.8¢

Italy

Vol $26.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 2.1%

↓ -0.1%

K 2.5%

P 2.1%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $4 2–3¢

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $26.1K 2–2.1¢

Japan

Vol $38.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.8%

↑ +0.5%

P 1.8%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $38.8K 1.8–1.9¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $7 1–2¢

Morocco

Vol $24.0K Spread 0.3%

Agg 1.7%

↓ -0.1%

P 1.8%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $24.0K 1.7–1.8¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $13 1–2¢

Belgium

Vol $18.5K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.7%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.7%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $0 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $18.5K 1.6–1.7¢

Colombia

Vol $20.8K Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.6%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.6%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $32 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $20.8K 1.5–1.6¢

USA

Vol $28.1K Spread 1.5%

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 3.0%

P 1.5%

Kalshi 3.0%

Vol $150 2–4¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $27.9K 1.4–1.6¢

Uruguay

Vol $124.9K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.1%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.1%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $2 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $124.9K 1–1.1¢

Mexico

Vol $30.8K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $75 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $30.8K 0.9–1¢

Croatia

Vol $150.8K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $23 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $150.8K 0.8–0.9¢

Ecuador

Vol $48.6K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $48.5K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $6 0–1¢

Switzerland

Vol $66.3K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $66.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Senegal

Vol $24.5K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $24.5K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $23 0–1¢

Wales

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Ukraine

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Turkey

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Sweden

Vol $1 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Romania

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Poland

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Panama

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Northern Ireland

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Ireland

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Denmark

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Scotland

Vol $52.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $52.1K 0.4–0.5¢

Egypt

Vol $61.4K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $61.4K 0.4–0.5¢

Austria

Vol $106.6K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $106.6K 0.4–0.5¢

Paraguay

Vol $37.5K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $37.5K 0.3–0.4¢

South Korea

Vol $127.7K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $7 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $127.7K 0.3–0.4¢

Ivory Coast

Vol $43.4K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $43.4K 0.3–0.4¢

Canada

Vol $90.3K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $90.3K 0.3–0.4¢

Uzbekistan

Vol $113.5K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $113.5K 0.2–0.3¢

Saudi Arabia

Vol $41.1K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $41.1K 0.2–0.3¢

Qatar

Vol $37.2K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $37.2K 0.2–0.3¢

Iran

Vol $121.8K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $121.8K 0.2–0.3¢

Ghana

Vol $43.7K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $43.7K 0.2–0.3¢

Algeria

Vol $32.8K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $32.8K 0.2–0.3¢

Australia

Vol $41.1K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $41.1K 0.2–0.3¢

Tunisia

Vol $31.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $31.8K 0.1–0.2¢

South Africa

Vol $21.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $21.6K 0.1–0.2¢

New Zealand

Vol $160.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $160.6K 0.1–0.2¢

Jordan

Vol $30.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $30.6K 0.1–0.2¢

Haiti

Vol $75.7K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $75.7K 0.1–0.2¢

Curacao

Vol $88.7K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $88.7K 0.1–0.2¢

Cape Verde

Vol $32.2K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $32.2K 0.1–0.2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
SP Spain	15.5% ↓ -0.1%	1.0%	$49.1K	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $689	Polymarket 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $48.4K
EN England	14.4% ↑ +0.2%	2.0%	$25.8K	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $805	Polymarket 14.5% 14–15¢ Vol $25.0K
FR France	12.4% ↓ -0.1%	1.0%	$5.4K	Kalshi 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $414	Polymarket 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $5.0K
AR Argentina	10.5% — +0.0%	1.0%	$11.9K	Kalshi 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $95	Polymarket 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $11.8K
BR Brazil	9.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$29.7K	Kalshi 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $218	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $29.5K
PO Portugal	7.3% ↓ -0.1%	1.3%	$21.7K	Kalshi 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $116	Polymarket 7.2% 7.2–7.3¢ Vol $21.6K
GE Germany	6.1% — +0.0%	0.4%	$21.8K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $133	Polymarket 6.1% 6–6.2¢ Vol $21.7K
NE Netherlands	3.4% ↓ -0.1%	0.2%	$18.0K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $53	Polymarket 3.4% 3.3–3.4¢ Vol $17.9K
NO Norway	2.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.8%	$23.6K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 2.8% 2.7–2.8¢ Vol $23.6K
IT Italy	2.1% ↓ -0.1%	0.5%	$26.1K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $4	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $26.1K
JA Japan	1.8% ↑ +0.5%	0.4%	$38.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $7	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $38.8K
MO Morocco	1.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.3%	$24.0K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $13	Polymarket 1.8% 1.7–1.8¢ Vol $24.0K
BE Belgium	1.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$18.5K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $18.5K
CO Colombia	1.6% — +0.0%	1.0%	$20.8K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $32	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $20.8K
US USA	1.5% — +0.0%	1.5%	$28.1K	Kalshi 3.0% 2–4¢ Vol $150	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $27.9K
UR Uruguay	1.1% — +0.0%	0.4%	$124.9K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $124.9K
ME Mexico	1.0% — +0.0%	0.5%	$30.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $75	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $30.8K
CR Croatia	0.9% — +0.0%	0.6%	$150.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $23	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $150.8K
EC Ecuador	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$48.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $48.5K
SW Switzerland	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$66.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $66.3K
SE Senegal	0.7% — +0.0%	0.2%	$24.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $23	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $24.5K
WA Wales	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
UK Ukraine	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
TU Turkey	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
SW Sweden	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket — — Vol $0
RO Romania	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
PO Poland	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
PA Panama	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
NI Northern Ireland	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
IR Ireland	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
DE Denmark	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
SC Scotland	0.4% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$52.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $52.1K
EG Egypt	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$61.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $61.4K
AU Austria	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$106.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $106.6K
PA Paraguay	0.4% — +0.0%	0.2%	$37.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $37.5K
SK South Korea	0.4% — +0.0%	0.2%	$127.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $7	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $127.7K
IC Ivory Coast	0.4% — +0.0%	0.2%	$43.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $43.4K
CA Canada	0.4% — +0.0%	0.2%	$90.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $90.3K
UZ Uzbekistan	0.3% — +0.0%	0.3%	$113.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $113.5K
SA Saudi Arabia	0.3% — +0.0%	0.3%	$41.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $41.1K
QA Qatar	0.3% — +0.0%	0.3%	$37.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $37.2K
IR Iran	0.3% — +0.0%	0.3%	$121.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $121.8K
GH Ghana	0.3% — +0.0%	0.3%	$43.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $43.7K
AL Algeria	0.3% — +0.0%	0.3%	$32.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $32.8K
AU Australia	0.3% — +0.0%	0.3%	$41.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $41.1K
TU Tunisia	0.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$31.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $31.8K
SA South Africa	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.4%	$21.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $21.6K
NZ New Zealand	0.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$160.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $160.6K
JO Jordan	0.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$30.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $30.6K
HA Haiti	0.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$75.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $75.7K
CU Curacao	0.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$88.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $88.7K
CV Cape Verde	0.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$32.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $32.2K

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Quick Links
EN England	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 13¢	Sell @ P 14¢	+1.00%	+0.87%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
PO Portugal	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 7.3¢	Sell @ K 8¢	+0.70%	+0.62%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CO Colombia	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
US USA	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BE Belgium	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.7¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
NO Norway	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.8¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CR Croatia	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SP Spain	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 16¢	Sell @ K 16¢	+0.00%	-0.16%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
FR France	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 12¢	Sell @ P 12¢	+0.00%	-0.12%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
AR Argentina	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 10¢	Sell @ P 10¢	+0.00%	-0.10%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
ME Mexico	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
UR Uruguay	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
IT Italy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TU Tunisia	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SA South Africa	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
NZ New Zealand	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JO Jordan	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
HA Haiti	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CU Curacao	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CV Cape Verde	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GE Germany	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 6.2¢	Sell @ K 6¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JA Japan	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2¢	Sell @ P 1.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MO Morocco	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2¢	Sell @ P 1.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EC Ecuador	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SW Switzerland	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SE Senegal	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
UZ Uzbekistan	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SA Saudi Arabia	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
QA Qatar	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
IR Iran	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GH Ghana	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AL Algeria	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AU Australia	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PA Paraguay	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.40%	-0.40%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SK South Korea	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.40%	-0.40%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
IC Ivory Coast	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.40%	-0.40%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CA Canada	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.40%	-0.40%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
NE Netherlands	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.4¢	Sell @ K 3¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SC Scotland	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EG Egypt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AU Austria	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BR Brazil	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 10¢	Sell @ P 9¢	-1.00%	-1.10%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Quick Link
SP Spain	US USA	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 3.00%	+13.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SP Spain	IT Italy	Polymarket	A 15.50%	B 2.05%	+13.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SP Spain	NE Netherlands	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 3.50%	+13.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SP Spain	NO Norway	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 3.50%	+13.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SP Spain	NO Norway	Polymarket	A 15.50%	B 2.75%	+12.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
EN England	IT Italy	Polymarket	A 14.50%	B 2.05%	+12.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SP Spain	NE Netherlands	Polymarket	A 15.50%	B 3.35%	+12.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
EN England	NO Norway	Polymarket	A 14.50%	B 2.75%	+11.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
EN England	NE Netherlands	Polymarket	A 14.50%	B 3.35%	+11.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
FR France	IT Italy	Polymarket	A 12.50%	B 2.05%	+10.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SP Spain	GE Germany	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 6.50%	+10.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
FR France	NO Norway	Polymarket	A 12.50%	B 2.75%	+9.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
EN England	US USA	Kalshi	A 12.50%	B 3.00%	+9.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SP Spain	GE Germany	Polymarket	A 15.50%	B 6.10%	+9.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
FR France	NE Netherlands	Polymarket	A 12.50%	B 3.35%	+9.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
EN England	NE Netherlands	Kalshi	A 12.50%	B 3.50%	+9.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
EN England	NO Norway	Kalshi	A 12.50%	B 3.50%	+9.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
FR France	US USA	Kalshi	A 11.50%	B 3.00%	+8.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AR Argentina	IT Italy	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.05%	+8.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
EN England	GE Germany	Polymarket	A 14.50%	B 6.10%	+8.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SP Spain	PO Portugal	Polymarket	A 15.50%	B 7.25%	+8.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SP Spain	PO Portugal	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 8.50%	+8.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
FR France	NE Netherlands	Kalshi	A 11.50%	B 3.50%	+8.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
FR France	NO Norway	Kalshi	A 11.50%	B 3.50%	+8.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AR Argentina	NO Norway	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.75%	+7.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
BR Brazil	IT Italy	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 2.05%	+7.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
EN England	PO Portugal	Polymarket	A 14.50%	B 7.25%	+7.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AR Argentina	NE Netherlands	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 3.35%	+7.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SP Spain	AR Argentina	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 9.50%	+7.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SP Spain	BR Brazil	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 9.50%	+7.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

About The Author

Cheryle Shepstone

Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-check. Before DeFi Rate, she led content and growth strategy at Catena Media, where she helped shape content and revenue strategy for regulated and financial markets. She has 20 years of experience in research and marketing strategy