Bad Bunny First Song Odds: Super Bowl LX Halftime Results

Kalshi was the #1 prediction market for the Bad Bunny first song market with 72% of the 24-hour action in market volume. Polymarket listed the same contracts but did not have as much liquidity. The Safaera spread at 4.85% was the widest price gap, with Kalshi at around 6% and Polymarket closer to 1%.

How the market played out

The Apple Music trailer dropped January 16 with BAILE INoLVIDABLE as the featured track. That drop briefly pushed it to the top of both boards for two weeks until Tití Me Preguntó reclaimed the lead.

This pattern tracked with how halftime openers typically work. Performers rarely lead with their biggest hit. They save that for the climax. Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg opened with “The Next Episode” and saved “Still D.R.E.” for the finale. Shakira opened with “She Wolf” and held “Hips Don’t Lie” until later. The opener needs to build energy and the market priced that dynamic into their prop bets.

✅ Tití Me Preguntó opened the show: This track samples Dominican artist Antony Santos and builds around a hook that works whether you speak Spanish or not. Kalshi priced it slightly higher than Polymarket, but both platforms agreed this was the clear favorite.

First song results

The market got it right. Tití Me Preguntó was the consensus favorite at 52% on Kalshi heading into game day and opened the show as expected. Of the 25+ songs with contracts, only seven appeared in the actual 13-song setlist.

The Cardi B resolution controversy

Cardi B sat at 60%+ to appear in the halftime show performer list heading into game day. If she joined early, that changed the opener math. “I Like It” was her song featuring Bad Bunny, so he probably wouldn’t have opened with a track where he was the guest. Total songs over/under was at 11.5. More guests meant fewer solo tracks, which increased the chance of a medley-style opener.

What actually happened became the biggest resolution dispute of the Super Bowl. Cardi B appeared on stage during the halftime show, dancing alongside Karol G, Pedro Pascal, and Jessica Alba — but she didn’t sing. Kalshi’s contract rules contained contradictory language, defining “performs” to include dancing in one clause while excluding “dancing or appearing on stage without singing/playing instruments” in another. Kalshi invoked Rule 6.3(c), settling the $47.3 million performer market at the last traded price ($0.74 No / $0.26 Yes) rather than declaring a winner. Polymarket resolved its equivalent market as Yes. At least one trader filed a complaint with the CFTC alleging Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act. The episode is a reminder of why reading the full settlement criteria before trading matters. This event resolved in opposite directions across platforms.

Other markets of interest:

Kalshi and Polymarket resolution criteria

Both platforms settled bets based on footage from the halftime show.

Kalshi: Resolved Yes if the listed song was played first. Bad Bunny or a guest performer had to sing at least some lyrics of the specified song. Medleys counted each song in the order they appeared. Interludes, instrumentals while the singer talked, rehearsals, and sound checks didn’t qualify. If cancelled or delayed past March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market would have resolved as No.

Polymarket: Resolved Yes if the listed song was played first by any performer. The performer had to sing at least some lyrics. Resolution sources included official Bad Bunny channels, major broadcast networks, and credible entertainment and news outlets (Billboard, Variety, Rolling Stone, AP, Reuters, major newspapers). Full or partial performances counted if at least reasonably begun. Medleys only counted in order of appearance.

Both prediction markets allowed guest performers to trigger resolution, but Polymarket explicitly listed resolution sources while Kalshi relied on footage plus consensus reporting.

About The Author

Cheryle Shepstone

Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-check. Before DeFi Rate, she led content and growth strategy at Catena Media, where she helped shape content and revenue strategy for regulated and financial markets. She has 20 years of experience in research and marketing strategy

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