Bad Bunny Super Bowl Song Predictions
Bad Bunny takes the Super Bowl LX halftime stage on February 8 as the first male solo Latin artist to headline the show. Kalshi and Polymarket both have prop bets on which song he opens with. "Tití Me Preguntó" leads across both platforms at 56.0% aggregate odds. "LA MUDANZA" sits second at 15.1% and the widest pricing gap is on "LA MUDANZA", with a 1.50% spread. Our predictions tracker aggregates live odds on the first song for Super Bowl 2026. Includes current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TMP"Tití Me Preguntó"
Vol $155.0K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
56.0%↑ +1.4%
P
57.5%
K
56.0%
LM"LA MUDANZA"
Vol $28.4K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
15.1%↑ +8.4%
P
16.0%
K
14.5%
BI"BAILE INOLVIDABLE"
Vol $13.8K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
14.6%↓ -0.1%
P
14.8%
K
14.5%
NU"NUEVAYOL"
Vol $15.6K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
5.6%↓ -6.6%
P
5.7%
K
5.5%
MOMONACO
Vol $4.3K
Spread —
Agg
5.5%— +0.0%
K
5.5%
DT"DtMF"
Vol $6.9K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
4.0%↓ -0.6%
P
4.5%
K
3.5%
CHChambea
Vol $594
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↑ +1.0%
K
1.5%
EOEoO
Vol $1.1K
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↓ -1.0%
K
1.5%
CA"Callaita"
Vol $1.4K
Spread 1.1%
Agg
1.3%↓ -0.1%
K
1.5%
P
0.4%
DA"DÁKITI"
Vol $1.2K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.1%↑ +0.4%
K
1.5%
P
0.4%
ILI"I Like It"
Vol $488
Spread 1.2%
Agg
0.9%↓ -0.5%
K
1.5%
P
0.4%
MPB"Me Porto Bonito"
Vol $368
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.7%↓ -0.1%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
MI"MIA"
Vol $377
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.6%↑ +0.1%
P
0.6%
K
0.5%
EF"Efecto"
Vol $305
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.5%
SA"Safaera"
Vol $387
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%↓ -0.8%
K
0.5%
P
0.5%
NMC"No Me Conoce - Remix"
Vol $275
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.5%↓ -0.1%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
LS"La Santa"
Vol $328
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.1%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
LJ"La Jumpa"
Vol $187
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.4%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
NE"Neverita"
Vol $187
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.4%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
YO"Yonaguni"
Vol $215
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.4%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
OL"Ojitos Lindos"
Vol $317
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.4%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
PN"PERRO NEGRO"
Vol $242
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.1%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
TBR"Te Boté - Remix"
Vol $244
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.1%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
LC"LA CANCIÓN"
Vol $213
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
UX"un x100to"
Vol $195
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.3%↓ -0.1%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMP "Tití Me Preguntó" | 56.0% ↑ +1.4% | 1.5% | $155.0K |
Kalshi
56.0% |
Polymarket
57.5% |
LM "LA MUDANZA" | 15.1% ↑ +8.4% | 1.5% | $28.4K |
Kalshi
14.5% |
Polymarket
16.0% |
BI "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" | 14.6% ↓ -0.1% | 0.3% | $13.8K |
Kalshi
14.5% |
Polymarket
14.8% |
NU "NUEVAYOL" | 5.6% ↓ -6.6% | 0.2% | $15.6K |
Kalshi
5.5% |
Polymarket
5.7% |
MO MONACO | 5.5% — +0.0% | — | $4.3K |
Kalshi
5.5% | |
DT "DtMF" | 4.0% ↓ -0.6% | 1.0% | $6.9K |
Kalshi
3.5% |
Polymarket
4.5% |
CH Chambea | 1.5% ↑ +1.0% | — | $594 |
Kalshi
1.5% | |
EO EoO | 1.5% ↓ -1.0% | — | $1.1K |
Kalshi
1.5% | |
CA "Callaita" | 1.3% ↓ -0.1% | 1.1% | $1.4K |
Kalshi
1.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
DA "DÁKITI" | 1.1% ↑ +0.4% | 1.0% | $1.2K |
Kalshi
1.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
ILI "I Like It" | 0.9% ↓ -0.5% | 1.2% | $488 |
Kalshi
1.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
MPB "Me Porto Bonito" | 0.7% ↓ -0.1% | 0.2% | $368 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.8% |
MI "MIA" | 0.6% ↑ +0.1% | 0.1% | $377 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.6% |
EF "Efecto" | 0.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $305 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.5% |
SA "Safaera" | 0.5% ↓ -0.8% | 0.0% | $387 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.5% |
NMC "No Me Conoce - Remix" | 0.5% ↓ -0.1% | 0.1% | $275 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
LS "La Santa" | 0.4% ↓ -0.1% | 0.1% | $328 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
LJ "La Jumpa" | 0.4% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $187 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
NE "Neverita" | 0.4% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $187 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
YO "Yonaguni" | 0.4% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $215 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
OL "Ojitos Lindos" | 0.4% ↓ -0.4% | 0.2% | $317 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
PN "PERRO NEGRO" | 0.4% ↓ -0.1% | 0.2% | $242 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
TBR "Te Boté - Remix" | 0.4% ↓ -0.1% | 0.2% | $244 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.4% |
LC "LA CANCIÓN" | 0.3% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $213 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.3% |
UX "un x100to" | 0.3% ↓ -0.1% | 0.2% | $195 |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.3% |
Probability Over Time
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Chart settings
Kalshi dominates the Bad Bunny first song market with 72% of the 24-hour action in market volume. Polymarket lists the same contracts but does not appear to have as much liquidity, yet. The Safaera spread at 4.85% is the widest price gap, with Kalshi at around 6% and Polymarket closer to 1%.
Songs most likely to win
The Apple Music trailer dropped January 16 with BAILE INoLVIDABLE as the featured track. That drop briefly pushed it to the top of both boards for two weeks until Tití Me Preguntó reclaimed the lead.
This pattern tracks with how halftime openers typically work. Performers rarely lead with their biggest hit. They save that for the climax. Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg opened with “The Next Episode” and saved “Still D.R.E.” for the finale. Shakira opened with “She Wolf” and held “Hips Don’t Lie” until later. The opener needs to build energy and the market is pricing that dynamic into their prop bets.
- Tití Me Preguntó (K: 52% / P: 49%): Tití Me Preguntó has over 1.9 billion Spotify streams and Time Magazine named it Song of the Year in 2022. The track samples Dominican artist Antony Santos and builds around a hook that works whether you speak Spanish or not. This song is leading right now as markets expect Bad Bunny to chase the energy early without burning his biggest material. Kalshi prices it slightly higher than Polymarket, but both platforms agree this is the clear favorite.
- BAILE INoLVIDABLE (K: 25% / P: 24%): BAILE INoLVIDABLE is Bad Bunny’s most streamed track right now and the centerpiece of his Grammy-winning album Debí Tirar Más Fotos. The song features student musicians from Puerto Rico’s Escuela Libre de la Música and peaked at #3 on the Hot 100. The official Super Bowl trailer featured this track, which explains why it briefly led both boards in mid-January. But the price has drifted since. The market seems to think trailer placement doesn’t guarantee opener status. Bad Bunny might be saving this for later in the set as a climactic Puerto Rico moment rather than burning it first.
- LA MUDANZA (K: 8% / P: 8.5%): LA MUDANZA is most likely the momentum play. The song climbed nearly 5 points in the last 24 hours and is the biggest move on the board. This is a slower, more emotional track about family and roots. It opens with storytelling before the beat fully kicks in. As the first solo Latin artist to headline the Super Bowl, opening with a song about where he comes from fits the moment. A quiet open that builds could work as a scene-setter for what follows. The market is betting he opens slow and builds from there. Volume is thin ($28K), but we expect this to pick up over the weekend.
- NUEVAYoL (K: 7% / P: 6.5%): NUEVAYoL is an ode to New York’s Latino community. LeBron James was filmed dancing to this at the Puerto Rico residency, drink in hand. The tempo is higher than LA MUDANZA and the upbeat nature of the song fits as a better opener. It’s worth a look if you think Bad Bunny wants to acknowledge the diaspora before leaning into island pride.
- Safaera (K: 6% / P: 1.15%): Safaera has the widest pricing gap on the predictions board. Kalshi has it at five times Polymarket’s price. This track is a reggaeton cut from YHLQMDLG that samples multiple classic beats. It’s chaotic, high-energy, and a deep cut. At the residency, it was a fan-favorite moment with the casita stage set. If you have a strong opinion either way, one side is offering a better number.
What if Cardi B makes an appearance?
Cardi B sits at 60%+ to appear in the halftime show performer list. If she joins early, that changes the opener math. “I Like It” is her song featuring Bad Bunny, so he probably wouldn’t open with a track where he’s the guest. Total songs over/under is at 11.5. More guests mean fewer solo tracks, which increases the chance of a medley-style opener.
Other markets of interest:
| Who will attend the Big Game? | Who will perform at the halftime show? | Super Bowl MVP |
| Who will advertise during the Super Bowl? | What will the announcers say? | Super Bowl squares |
Kalshi and Polymarket resolution criteria
Both platforms settle bets based on footage from the halftime show.
Kalshi: Resolves Yes if the listed song is played first. Bad Bunny or a guest performer must sing at least some lyrics of the specified song. Medleys count each song in the order they appear. Interludes, instrumentals while the singer talks, rehearsals, and sound checks don’t qualify. If cancelled or delayed past March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves as No.
Polymarket: Resolves Yes if the listed song is played first by any performer. The performer must sing at least some lyrics. Resolution sources include official Bad Bunny channels, major broadcast networks, and credible entertainment and news outlets (Billboard, Variety, Rolling Stone, AP, Reuters, major newspapers). Full or partial performances count if at least reasonably begun. Medleys only count in order of appearance.
The real difference between the two: Both prediction markets allow guest performers to trigger resolution, but Polymarket explicitly lists resolution sources while Kalshi relies on footage plus consensus reporting.
