USA to Win World Cup 2026: Group D Odds & Predictions

Match preview and odds analysis

Prediction markets give the US team a 2% chance to win the 2026 World Cup. That puts them well behind Spain (15%), England (13%), and France (11%) — but ahead of every other CONCACAF side. A more realistic market for those looking to back Team USA: the USMNT is priced at 46% to win Group D, making them the clear favorites ahead of Paraguay (23%).

The USMNT ended 2025 on a genuine high note, going unbeaten across their final five matches under head coach Mauricio Pochettino, including comfortable wins over Paraguay and Uruguay in November. Those results restored confidence in a program that looked directionless earlier in the year.

Pochettino has settled on a 3-4-2-1 formation that suits this squad’s strengths — athletic wing-backs, a deep midfield, and Pulisic operating in a free role behind the striker. Most of the core players are in their mid-20s and playing regularly at major European clubs.

Pochettino has four pre-tournament friendlies to finalize his plans: Belgium and Portugal in Atlanta in March, followed by Senegal in Charlotte and Germany in Chicago in early June. He’ll name his 26-man squad in late May. The current USA Men’s World Cup odds reflect a team with a realistic path to the quarterfinals but not much further.

Group draw and tournament path: a West Coast Swing for the USMNT

The Americans have never advanced past the quarterfinals in the modern World Cup era, and they were knocked out in the Round of 16 in 2022 after a 3-1 loss to the Netherlands. The group stage should be manageable, but the knockout rounds are where this team has historically hit a wall. Home support will help — the USMNT plays all three group games on the West Coast — but the Americans remain underdogs against European and South American sides in the knockout rounds.

The USMNT will play their group stage games on the West Coast. Their first matchup begins in Los Angeles, and they will then head to Seattle to face Australia, before returning to LA for their final game. They look capable of winning all three matches. Most predictions have them finishing top of Group D. The top two teams from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advance to a Round of 32.

• USA vs Paraguay (June 12, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles): The USA will kick off their group stage campaign against a well-drilled Paraguay team. The Paraguayans only conceded 10 goals in 18 qualifying games, and that superb defensive record earned them a place at the World Cup. This could be a tight, low-scoring game, but the Americans are the favorite, with a 49% chance of winning, according to Kalshi traders.
• USA vs Australia (June 19, Lumen Field, Seattle): This could prove to be a pivotal game between the Americans and the Socceroos. Australia is a disciplined, hardworking team, but the USA has more quality in midfield and attack.
• USA vs Playoff qualifier (June 25, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles): Mauricio Pochettino’s men will end their group stage campaign against a European team. There are four potential opponents: Turkey, Slovakia, Kosovo, or Romania. Turkey looks like the strongest of that bunch, featuring elite players like Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Çalhanoğlu. If the Turks qualify, they could battle it out with the USA for first place in Group D, so this would be a crucial match.

If the Stars and Stripes win Group D, they will face the third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J in the Round of 32. They would be the heavy favorites for that game, and most predictions have them advancing comfortably. Their most likely opponent in the Round of 16 would be Belgium. The Belgians would probably be the slight favorites, but they’re past their best, and key players like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne have struggled with injuries.

That game would take place in Seattle, so the USA would enjoy strong home support. If they win, they will advance to the quarterfinals in Inglewood. Their most likely opponent would be Spain, the reigning European champion and the consensus World Cup favorite with prediction markets. Anyone betting on the USA to win the World Cup is essentially betting they can beat Spain — a low-probability outcome, but not impossible on home soil.

If the USA finishes second in Group D, they would face a tougher path through the bracket. For that reason, Team USA will be focused on winning the group.

For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.

Key players to watch: the USA needs Pulisic to stay healthy

The elephant in the room is Christian Pulisic’s fitness — and it’s the single biggest factor in the USA’s World Cup odds. The AC Milan forward has dealt with a hamstring injury and bursitis this season, starting just three of Milan’s last nine Serie A matches. He hasn’t registered a single goal contribution in 2026. Pochettino addressed it directly in a recent press conference, saying Pulisic has been “playing, then not playing, then on the bench.” Allegri gave a positive update on February 21, and Pulisic told Access Hollywood he’s “close to being where I want to be” physically — but this is the defining variable for the USA’s tournament ceiling.

Pochettino has explicitly said no one is guaranteed. He told reporters in November that “no one can feel safe,” naming Pulisic and Adams specifically as examples of players who shouldn’t assume they’re in.

That said, the media consensus on near-locks (barring injury) is pretty tight:

• Widely considered locks: Pulisic, Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Matt Freese (GK), Antonee Robinson
• Likely locks but with caveats: Malik Tillman (injury history), Sergino Dest, Alex Freeman, Mark McKenzie
• The striker spot is wide open: Balogun is the presumptive starter, but Wright just made a statement with the hat trick, Pepi is returning from his broken arm, and Patrick Agyemang is a Pochettino favorite from his MLS pipeline.
• Notable uncertainty: Gio Reyna (currently frozen out at Gladbach on an “individual training program”), Yunus Musah (barely playing at Atalanta)

Related markets for the USA

The World Cup is expected to be the second-largest betting event in North America this year, behind the Super Bowl. It will also be the first time sports bettors in California and Texas can legally access sports markets through prediction sites and trade on the Men’s team.

You will find several World Cup prediction markets available beyond the USA’s outright odds:

• To win Group D: The US Men’s Team is trending at a 46% chance of winning Group D. That leaves them as the favorites, ahead of Paraguay (23%). Turkey could emerge as a key rival if it qualifies for the tournament.
• To qualify for the knockout stage: The Stars and Stripes have an 89% chance of reaching the Round of 32 and better odds of this stage compared to Mexico and Canada, the other two host nations. They need to clinch a top-two finish in Group D, or they must be one of the eight best third-place teams.
• To reach a certain stage: You can also bet on how far the USA will go — Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final. If you think the Americans hit their usual ceiling in the Round of 16, that contract may offer better value than the outright winner.
• Golden Boot: Pulisic is trading at 2% on Kalshi to be the top scorer at the World Cup. Strikers like Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland are the favorites.
• World Cup prop markets: You can also trade on World Cup props that traditional sports betting sites don’t carry — whether Messi or Ronaldo will play, who sings the official World Cup song, whether Trump attends the final, or whether any US-scheduled games get relocated abroad. If you’re looking for action beyond match outcomes, Polymarket has the widest selection and the most liquidity.