Super Bowl Odds

Super Bowl props and futures markets

Super Bowl MVP

The quarterback bias continues. Sam Darnold leads at 36%, with Matthew Stafford at 28% and Drake Maye at 30%. Five of the last six Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, so the market is pricing accordingly. Skill position players like Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are available under 10 cents for anyone betting on a non-QB winner.

Entertainment and prop markets

Bad Bunny is locked in at 98% for the halftime show. That market is essentially settled.

Kalshi runs a range of novelty markets including celebrity attendance props, broadcast mention contracts (will Taylor Swift be named 5+ times during the game?), and brand advertising markets tracking which companies will run Super Bowl spots.

Polymarket lists over 200 outcome contracts under Super Bowl, including winning state (California leads at 48% given the NFC Championship features two California-adjacent teams) and winning division (NFC West at 52%).

NFL awards

These settle before the Super Bowl and are mostly locked up. Stafford leads MVP at 81%, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has OPOY at 84%, and Mike Vrabel is the Coach of the Year favorite at 71% after New England’s turnaround.

Here’s a complete list of the props and futures running at Polymarket and current odds

Where to bet on the Super Bowl

The top prediction market platforms have more than enough market liquidity to offer Super Bowl contracts, though the naming convention isn’t “Super Bowl odds” per se. Kalshi calls it “Pro Football Champion” while Polymarket uses “Super Bowl Champion 2026.” Both prediction market apps have significant crossover in available contracts, including team futures, conference winners, division markets, and props like who will be the halftime performer and the winning state (California is leading here).

Here’s where you can legally trade Super Bowl contracts in most states, including California, Texas, and Florida:

• Kalshi: Kalshi operates with direct bank account linking and fiat deposits. The “2026 NFL Championship Winner” market has individual contracts for each team—Rams at 20%, Bills at 13.5%, etc. Kalshi also runs conference championship markets, division winners, and season-long props. Use the Kalshi referral code DEFI to get a free $10 with your first $100 in trades on the Super Bowl.
• Polymarket: Polymarket requires USDC deposits through a crypto wallet. Polymarket’s structure allows for more exotic prop markets than Klashi. I found “Super Bowl – Winning State” (California at 48%) and entertainment props like halftime performer. There were also 208 outcome contracts listed under Super Bowl, meaning you can trade basically any scenario. The trading fees run around 2-3% depending on liquidity, though US market has an introductory price of 0.01%. Gas fees will usually add another $1-5 per trade.

New markets

DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics all launched prediction markets in time for the Super Bowl. Pricing on these apps is significantly higher than Kalshi.

How to bet on the Super Bowl 

When you see “Rams 20¢” that’s literally the price per contract. Buy 100 contracts for $20. If LA wins Super Bowl 60 in February, you collect $100 (each contract pays $1). If they lose, you lose. The 20¢ price reflects what the market (other traders) thinks the actual win probability is.

Kalshi vs Polymarket Super Bowl contracts

Both run the same core markets: team winner, conference champions, division winners. Polymarket goes deeper on props and exotic outcomes. Kalshi is easier when it comes to funding your account.

Here’s a quick tutorial on trading event contracts:

1. Choose your platform and create an account

Select Kalshi (for fiat deposits) or Polymarket (for crypto deposits). You will need to complete KYC verification, which typically takes a few minutes. From there, link your bank account (Kalshi) or fund with USDC (Polymarket).

2. Find your market

Click on the sports markets in the top nav or use the search field and enter Super Bowl. The results should populate with all available Super Bowl contracts, including props. Just like sportsbooks, Super Bowl winner contracts are available year-round. Conference championships, division winners, and player awards are also available.

3. Buy contracts at current market prices

You won’t see the usual odds. Instead, prediction markets show live Super Bowl prices based on supply and demand. If the Bills trade at 13¢ (13% probability), you can buy 100 contracts for $13. Each contract settles at $1.00 if the Bills win and $0.00 if the Bills lose.

4. Trade or hold until settlement

The key difference between prediction markets and sports betting: you can sell anytime before the season ends. If the Bill’s probability rises from 13% to 20%, you can sell your 100 contracts for $20 (making $7 profit) at any time. You do not need to hold until the game.

5. How settlement works

Your Super Bowl contracts settle at $1.00 per share when you win and $0.00 if you lose. Settlement occurs the day after the Super Bowl concludes (typically within 24 hours). The results usually come from official league sources, but you need to read and compare how settlement is determined. Polymarket and Kalshi have different rules. 

Example trade:

• Buy 100 Rams contracts at 20¢ = Total of $20 investment
• Rams reach NFC Championship, probability rises to 35¢
• Option A: Sell now at 35¢ = $35 (profit: $15)
• Option B: Hold through Super Bowl = $100 if Rams win, $0 if they lose

Your ability to exit positions early is what separates prediction markets from traditional sportsbooks with Super Bowl odds. You’re not locked into a bet. You’re trading a position with other people that adjusts with real-time information.