The World Cup Round of 32 is now set after England, Croatia, and DR Congo earned crucial wins on Saturday. Soccer fans can now look forward to 16 games over the next six days, including the USA’s showdown with Bosnia and Herzegovina.
We’ve previewed all 16 games and discussed where the value lies for traders, with insights from Kalshi and Polymarket.
How the Round of 32 works
The remaining 32 teams will now go into a single-elimination bracket. There won’t be any more draws: if two teams are tied at the end of regulation time, the game will go to extra time. If they still can’t be separated after an extra 30 minutes, a penalty shootout will determine the winner.
Just bear in mind that most contracts will settle at the end of regulation time (90 minutes, plus injury time). Markets like the three-way moneyline, total goals, spreads, player props, and game props don’t cover extra time or penalties.
There’s one exception: you can now predict whether a team will advance to the next round. For example, Canada is trading at 73% with Kalshi to advance to the Round of 32, whereas South Africa is priced at 27%. This market takes extra time and penalties into account.
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| Platform | Sign-up bonus | Promo code | How to claim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Polymarket | Deposit $20, Get $50 Bonus |
RATE
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| Team to advance | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 94% | 93% |
| France | 90% | 89% |
| England | 90% | 89% |
| Spain | 85% | 84% |
| Germany | 84% | 85% |
| USA | 84% | 84% |
| Canada | 76% | 73% |
| Colombia | 75% | 74% |
| Brazil | 73% | 73% |
| Switzerland | 70% | 69% |
| Portugal | 67% | 66% |
| Norway | 66% | 66% |
| Netherlands | 63% | 61% |
| Mexico | 61% | 61% |
| Belgium | 61% | 61% |
| Egypt | 56% | 57% |
| Australia | 43% | 44% |
| Senegal | 40% | 38% |
| Ecuador | 39% | 40% |
| Morocco | 37% | 39% |
| Ivory Coast | 36% | 34% |
| Croatia | 33% | 34% |
| Japan | 30% | 28% |
| Algeria | 29% | 29% |
| South Africa | 27% | 27% |
| Ghana | 23% | 30% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 18% | 17% |
| Paraguay | 17% | 16% |
| Austria | 16% | 15% |
| DR Congo | 12% | 13% |
| Sweden | 11% | 12% |
| Cape Verde | 7% | 7% |
Round of 32 odds on Canada, Mexico, and the USA
The three co-hosts all advanced to the Round of 32. The USA and Mexico won their groups, while Canada finished second. Prediction markets expect all three teams to advance to the Round of 16:
- South Africa vs. Canada. The Round of 32 begins with Canada taking on South Africa at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles today (3 p.m. ET). Canada is priced at 75% with Polymarket and 73% with Kalshi to advance to the next round. The CanMNT scored eight goals in three group stage games, so it could cause problems for South Africa’s defense. Kalshi also has 60% on Canada to win in regulation time, which could be a popular market.
- Mexico vs. Ecuador. This game takes place in Mexico City on Tuesday (9 p.m. ET), and home advantage could be crucial for Mexico. Kalshi has 62% on Mexico to advance after El Tri won all three of their group stage games. However, Ecuador is fresh from a 2-1 win against Germany, and it won’t go down without a fight. It could be a tight, low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals priced at 67%.
- USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina. The USMNT is a heavy favorite to advance to the Round of 16, priced at 83% with Kalshi. Mauricio Pochettino’s men should have enough quality to get the job done in regulation time, so backing the USA on the moneyline at 72% offers more value in this game (8 p.m. ET on Wednesday in San Francisco). Alternatively, Team USA is trading at 47% to cover a 1.5-goal spread against Bosnia and Herzegovina, which lost 4-1 to Switzerland during the group stage.
Argentina, France, and England are among the heavy favorites
The World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams this year, and FIFA added an extra round – the Round of 32 – as part of the new format. That was always going to result in a few mismatches, and some elite teams are overwhelming favorites to advance to the next round. These are the most obvious David vs. Goliath battles:
- Argentina vs. Cape Verde. Argentina is trading at 92% to advance to the next round. Cape Verde drew all three group stage games, including a 0-0 tie with Spain, but it’s hard to see the Blue Sharks containing Lionel Messi. He scored six goals in the group stage, and he could run riot against Cape Verde (6 p.m. ET on Friday in Miami).
- France vs. Sweden. Les Bleus are the World Cup favorites after winning all three group stage games. They’re trading at 89% to advance against Sweden, which conceded eight goals in three group stage matches. The game takes place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, and France is priced at 77% with Polymarket to win in regulation time.
- England vs. DR Congo. Prediction markets expect England to outclass DR Congo when the teams meet in Atlanta at 12 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The Three Lions are trading at 88% to advance to the next round, and you can back them at 52% to cover a 1.5-goal spread in regulation time.
European and South American heavyweights predicted to win
Prediction sites give several other European and South American heavyweights a strong chance of winning their Round of 32 games:
- Spain vs. Austria. Spain is the reigning European champion, and it’s currently on a 34-game unbeaten run. La Roja haven’t conceded a single goal so far at this tournament, and they’re the clear favorites to beat Austria. The game takes place at SoFi Stadium at 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, and Spain is priced at 85% with Polymarket to knock the Austrians out of the tournament.
- Colombia vs. Ghana. Traders expect the Colombians to make short work of Ghana in this game (9:30 p.m. ET on Friday, July 3, in Kansas City). They’re priced at 76% to advance following Ghana’s 2-1 defeat to Croatia.
- Germany vs. Paraguay. Kalshi traders give Germany a 73% chance of reaching the Round of 16. Die Mannschaft will play against Paraguay in the Round of 32 on Monday. The game kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET in Boston. Paraguay has a stout defense, but prediction markets expect Germany’s forwards to prevail in this matchup after they scored 10 goals in three group stage matches. Both teams to score has paid off in all of Germany’s World Cup games so far, and it’s trading at 47% with Polymarket in this matchup.
- Brazil vs. Japan. Kalshi traders give Brazil a 73% chance of reaching the Round of 16 at the expense of Japan. The Seleção beat Haiti 3-0 and Scotland 3-0 in their last two games, so they’ll be surging with momentum. Vinícius Júnior has scored four goals in three matches at this tournament, and he’s trading at 44% with Polymarket to find the back of the net in this game (1 p.m. ET on Monday in Houston).
- Switzerland vs. Algeria. The Swiss won Group A after beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1 and Canada 2-1 in their last two games. They’re priced at 70% with Polymarket to get the better of Algeria, which conceded seven goals in three group stage matches.
- Portugal vs. Croatia. The Portuguese finished second in their group after drawing 0-0 with Colombia on Saturday. However, Portugal is priced at 66% with Kalshi to knock Croatia out of the tournament when the teams meet in Toronto on Thursday (7 p.m. ET). Croatia scored in all three group stage games – a 4-2 defeat to England, a 1-0 win against Panama, and a 2-1 win against Ghana – so both teams to score could be popular. That’s trading at 49% with Kalshi.
- Norway vs. Ivory Coast. The Norwegians booked a place in the Round of 32 after beating Iraq and Senegal. They rested their key players for a 4-1 defeat to France on Matchday 3, so the likes of Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard should be fresh for this game against the Ivory Coast (1 p.m. ET on Tuesday in Dallas). Norway is priced at 65% to advance, but Ivory Coast played well in the group stage, so this isn’t a slam-dunk.
Round of 32 games that could go either way
The Round of 32 has also served up a few blockbuster clashes. These games could go either way, as they pit evenly matched teams against one another:
- Netherlands vs. Morocco. The Dutch are trading at 63% with Kalshi to knock Morocco out of the tournament after winning their group with an unbeaten record. However, Morocco was also unbeaten in the group stage. The Atlas Lions drew 1-1 with Brazil, before beating Scotland and Haiti, and they’re now No. 6 in the FIFA world rankings – one place ahead of the Netherlands. This intriguing game kicks off at 9 p.m. ET on Monday in Monterrey.
- Belgium vs. Senegal. The Belgians could only draw with Egypt and Iraq in their first two games, but they then thumped New Zealand 5-1. That result ensured they won their group, but they now face a daunting showdown with Senegal. The Lions of Teranga suffered narrow defeats to France and Norway, but they then beat New Zealand 5-0 this week. They’re priced at 38% to advance, while Belgium is trading at 62% with Kalshi.
- Australia vs. Egypt. Prediction markets expect a very tight game between these teams. Egypt is trading at 56% to advance, while Australia is priced at 44%. Traders see it as almost a coin flip, but Egypt has much more firepower in attack than Australia, so that 56% could prove popular.
