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2026 Oscars Odds and Prediction Markets

Author Author Thumbnail Cheryle Shepstone
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Cheryle Shepstone Director of Content
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...
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Editor Author Thumbnail Valerie Cross
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Valerie Cross Editorial Director
Valerie Cross is a reporter, editor, and prediction markets analyst with more than a decade of experience covering legal gaming and emerging financial markets. She joined DeFi Rate in 2026 after reporting on the rise of ...
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Updated: March 9, 2026

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    Oscars weekend is one of the biggest nights in prediction markets outside of politics and sports. Kalshi and Polymarket between them are running dozens of active markets across Best Picture, every acting and directing category, nominations, supporting categories, and even mention markets.

    The volume reflects it. Best Picture has already crossed $13 million across both platforms, with acting categories close behind. If you’re looking for a legal way to get in on the Oscars odds, prediction markets are available in all 50 states through sites like Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts. Most sportsbooks don’t carry Oscars markets at all or its not legal.

    Below we’ve compiled live odds across all major categories, updated every 30 minutes from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. FanDuel Predicts is also running Oscars markets with a $25 no-deposit bonus. We’re working on getting access to the APIs to integrate those.

    Prediction sites with Oscars trading

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    Good bonus, liquidity is lower than Kalshi

    Odds on Best Picture

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    OBA
    One Battle After Another
    Vol $94.3K Spread 1.0%
    Agg -280
    ↓ -0.8%
    K -292
    G -292
    P -277
    Kalshi -292
    Vol $17.0K 74–75¢
    Gemini -292
    Vol $103 71–78¢
    Polymarket -277
    Vol $77.1K 73–74¢
    SI
    Sinners
    Vol $137.2K Spread 0.4%
    Agg +351
    ↑ +1.3%
    K +344
    G +344
    P +351
    Kalshi +344
    Vol $13.4K 22–23¢
    Gemini +344
    Vol $227 19–26¢
    Polymarket +351
    Vol $123.5K 22.1–22.2¢
    HA
    Hamnet
    Vol $107.6K Spread 1.0%
    Agg +5,296
    ↓ -0.6%
    K +3,900
    P +5,305
    G +6,567
    Kalshi +3,900
    Vol $528 2–3¢
    Polymarket +5,305
    Vol $107.0K 1.8–1.9¢
    Gemini +6,567
    Vol $0 3–0¢
    MS
    Marty Supreme
    Vol $65.1K Spread 0.7%
    Agg +7,303
    — +0.0%
    G +4,900
    K +6,567
    P +7,307
    Gemini +4,900
    Vol $0 4–0¢
    Kalshi +6,567
    Vol $342 1–2¢
    Polymarket +7,307
    Vol $64.7K 1.3–1.4¢
    SV
    Sentimental Value
    Vol $65.4K Spread 0.5%
    Agg +18,082
    — +0.0%
    P +18,082
    K +19,900
    G —
    Polymarket +18,082
    Vol $65.3K 0.5–0.6¢
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $21 0–1¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    TI
    Tie
    Vol $1 Spread —
    Agg +19,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $1 0–1¢
    FR
    Frankenstein
    Vol $166.1K Spread 0.3%
    Agg +39,900
    ↓ -0.1%
    K +19,900
    P +39,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $3 0–1¢
    Polymarket +39,900
    Vol $166.1K 0.2–0.3¢
    TSA
    The Secret Agent
    Vol $87.7K Spread 0.3%
    Agg +39,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    P +39,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $10 0–1¢
    Polymarket +39,900
    Vol $87.7K 0.2–0.3¢
    BU
    Bugonia
    Vol $200.1K Spread 0.5%
    Agg +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    K +19,900
    P +66,567
    G —
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $22 0–1¢
    Polymarket +66,567
    Vol $200.1K 0.1–0.2¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    F1
    F1
    Vol $169.5K Spread 0.4%
    Agg +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    K +19,900
    P +66,567
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $1 0–1¢
    Polymarket +66,567
    Vol $169.5K 0.1–0.2¢
    TD
    Train Dreams
    Vol $249.9K Spread 0.4%
    Agg +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    K +19,900
    P +66,567
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $26 0–1¢
    Polymarket +66,567
    Vol $249.8K 0.1–0.2¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketGemini
    OBA
    One Battle After Another
    -280
    ↓ -0.8%
    1.0%
    $94.3K
    Kalshi -292
    74–75¢ Vol $17.0K
    Polymarket -277
    73–74¢ Vol $77.1K
    Gemini -292
    71–78¢ Vol $103
    SI
    Sinners
    +351
    ↑ +1.3%
    0.4%
    $137.2K
    Kalshi +344
    22–23¢ Vol $13.4K
    Polymarket +351
    22.1–22.2¢ Vol $123.5K
    Gemini +344
    19–26¢ Vol $227
    HA
    Hamnet
    +5,296
    ↓ -0.6%
    1.0%
    $107.6K
    Kalshi +3,900
    2–3¢ Vol $528
    Polymarket +5,305
    1.8–1.9¢ Vol $107.0K
    Gemini +6,567
    3–0¢ Vol $0
    MS
    Marty Supreme
    +7,303
    — +0.0%
    0.7%
    $65.1K
    Kalshi +6,567
    1–2¢ Vol $342
    Polymarket +7,307
    1.3–1.4¢ Vol $64.7K
    Gemini +4,900
    4–0¢ Vol $0
    SV
    Sentimental Value
    +18,082
    — +0.0%
    0.5%
    $65.4K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $21
    Polymarket +18,082
    0.5–0.6¢ Vol $65.3K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    TI
    Tie
    +19,900
    — +0.0%
    —
    $1
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $1
    Polymarket —
    —
    Gemini —
    —
    FR
    Frankenstein
    +39,900
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.3%
    $166.1K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $3
    Polymarket +39,900
    0.2–0.3¢ Vol $166.1K
    Gemini —
    —
    TSA
    The Secret Agent
    +39,900
    — +0.0%
    0.3%
    $87.7K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $10
    Polymarket +39,900
    0.2–0.3¢ Vol $87.7K
    Gemini —
    —
    BU
    Bugonia
    +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.5%
    $200.1K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $22
    Polymarket +66,567
    0.1–0.2¢ Vol $200.1K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    F1
    F1
    +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.4%
    $169.5K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $1
    Polymarket +66,567
    0.1–0.2¢ Vol $169.5K
    Gemini —
    —
    TD
    Train Dreams
    +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.4%
    $249.9K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $26
    Polymarket +66,567
    0.1–0.2¢ Vol $249.8K
    Gemini —
    —

    Odds on Best Director

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    PTA
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    Vol $49.1K Spread 1.5%
    Agg -1,000
    ↑ +0.8%
    P -1,076
    K -953
    G -900
    Polymarket -1,076
    Vol $20.0K 91–92¢
    Kalshi -953
    Vol $29.0K 90–91¢
    Gemini -900
    Vol $0 87–93¢
    RC
    Ryan Coogler
    Vol $19.5K Spread 1.2%
    Agg +1,170
    ↓ -0.1%
    G +1,011
    K +1,076
    P +1,182
    Gemini +1,011
    Vol $0 6–12¢
    Kalshi +1,076
    Vol $2.0K 8–9¢
    Polymarket +1,182
    Vol $17.5K 7.7–7.9¢
    CZ
    Chloe Zhao
    Vol $8.8K Spread 1.5%
    Agg +10,234
    ↑ +0.3%
    K +6,567
    P +10,426
    G —
    Kalshi +6,567
    Vol $283 1–2¢
    Polymarket +10,426
    Vol $8.5K 0.9–1¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    TI
    Tie
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg +19,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $0 0–1¢
    JS
    Josh Safdie
    Vol $6.8K Spread 0.8%
    Agg +49,775
    ↓ -0.1%
    G +9,900
    K +19,900
    P +49,900
    Gemini +9,900
    Vol $0 2–0¢
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $12 0–1¢
    Polymarket +49,900
    Vol $6.8K 0.1–0.3¢
    JT
    Joachim Trier
    Vol $4.4K Spread 2.4%
    Agg +66,567
    — +0.0%
    G +3,900
    K +19,900
    P +66,567
    Gemini +3,900
    Vol $0 2–3¢
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $0 0–1¢
    Polymarket +66,567
    Vol $4.4K 0.1–0.2¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketGemini
    PTA
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    -1,000
    ↑ +0.8%
    1.5%
    $49.1K
    Kalshi -953
    90–91¢ Vol $29.0K
    Polymarket -1,076
    91–92¢ Vol $20.0K
    Gemini -900
    87–93¢ Vol $0
    RC
    Ryan Coogler
    +1,170
    ↓ -0.1%
    1.2%
    $19.5K
    Kalshi +1,076
    8–9¢ Vol $2.0K
    Polymarket +1,182
    7.7–7.9¢ Vol $17.5K
    Gemini +1,011
    6–12¢ Vol $0
    CZ
    Chloe Zhao
    +10,234
    ↑ +0.3%
    1.5%
    $8.8K
    Kalshi +6,567
    1–2¢ Vol $283
    Polymarket +10,426
    0.9–1¢ Vol $8.5K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    TI
    Tie
    +19,900
    — +0.0%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $0
    Polymarket —
    —
    Gemini —
    —
    JS
    Josh Safdie
    +49,775
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.8%
    $6.8K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $12
    Polymarket +49,900
    0.1–0.3¢ Vol $6.8K
    Gemini +9,900
    2–0¢ Vol $0
    JT
    Joachim Trier
    +66,567
    — +0.0%
    2.4%
    $4.4K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $0
    Polymarket +66,567
    0.1–0.2¢ Vol $4.4K
    Gemini +3,900
    2–3¢ Vol $0

    Odds on Best Supporting Actor

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    SP
    Sean Penn
    Vol $26.6K Spread 1.5%
    Agg -248
    ↑ +1.8%
    P -257
    K -239
    G -239
    Polymarket -257
    Vol $13.5K 71–73¢
    Kalshi -239
    Vol $13.1K 70–71¢
    Gemini -239
    Vol $10 67–74¢
    SS
    Stellan Skarsgard
    Vol $6.5K Spread 0.5%
    Agg +456
    ↓ -1.5%
    G +441
    K +456
    P +456
    Gemini +441
    Vol $16 15–22¢
    Kalshi +456
    Vol $2.4K 17–19¢
    Polymarket +456
    Vol $4.2K 17–19¢
    DL
    Delroy Lindo
    Vol $9.4K Spread 0.8%
    Agg +1,349
    ↓ -0.7%
    K +1,233
    G +1,329
    P +1,393
    Kalshi +1,233
    Vol $2.4K 7–8¢
    Gemini +1,329
    Vol $0 4–10¢
    Polymarket +1,393
    Vol $7.0K 6.5–6.9¢
    BDT
    Benicio del Toro
    Vol $23.5K Spread 2.0%
    Agg +4,905
    ↑ +0.7%
    P +4,900
    K +6,567
    G —
    Polymarket +4,900
    Vol $23.4K 1.9–2.1¢
    Kalshi +6,567
    Vol $90 1–2¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    JE
    Jacob Elordi
    Vol $4.5K Spread 1.5%
    Agg +10,661
    — +0.0%
    K +6,567
    P +11,011
    G —
    Kalshi +6,567
    Vol $219 1–2¢
    Polymarket +11,011
    Vol $4.3K 0.7–1.1¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    TI
    Tie
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg +19,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $0 0–1¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketGemini
    SP
    Sean Penn
    -248
    ↑ +1.8%
    1.5%
    $26.6K
    Kalshi -239
    70–71¢ Vol $13.1K
    Polymarket -257
    71–73¢ Vol $13.5K
    Gemini -239
    67–74¢ Vol $10
    SS
    Stellan Skarsgard
    +456
    ↓ -1.5%
    0.5%
    $6.5K
    Kalshi +456
    17–19¢ Vol $2.4K
    Polymarket +456
    17–19¢ Vol $4.2K
    Gemini +441
    15–22¢ Vol $16
    DL
    Delroy Lindo
    +1,349
    ↓ -0.7%
    0.8%
    $9.4K
    Kalshi +1,233
    7–8¢ Vol $2.4K
    Polymarket +1,393
    6.5–6.9¢ Vol $7.0K
    Gemini +1,329
    4–10¢ Vol $0
    BDT
    Benicio del Toro
    +4,905
    ↑ +0.7%
    2.0%
    $23.5K
    Kalshi +6,567
    1–2¢ Vol $90
    Polymarket +4,900
    1.9–2.1¢ Vol $23.4K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    JE
    Jacob Elordi
    +10,661
    — +0.0%
    1.5%
    $4.5K
    Kalshi +6,567
    1–2¢ Vol $219
    Polymarket +11,011
    0.7–1.1¢ Vol $4.3K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    TI
    Tie
    +19,900
    — +0.0%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $0
    Polymarket —
    —
    Gemini —
    —

    Odds on Best Actor

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    MBJ
    Michael B. Jordan
    Vol $225.5K Spread 1.0%
    Agg -157
    ↑ +13.5%
    P -160
    K -153
    Polymarket -160
    Vol $147.2K 61.2–61.8¢
    Kalshi -153
    Vol $78.4K 60–61¢
    TC
    Timothee Chalamet
    Vol $109.5K Spread 0.0%
    Agg +217
    ↓ -14.2%
    K +217
    P +217
    Kalshi +217
    Vol $47.2K 31–32¢
    Polymarket +217
    Vol $62.3K 31–32¢
    LD
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Vol $50.8K Spread 1.0%
    Agg +2,681
    — +0.0%
    K +2,122
    P +2,717
    Kalshi +2,122
    Vol $2.5K 4–5¢
    Polymarket +2,717
    Vol $48.4K 3.5–3.6¢
    WM
    Wagner Moura
    Vol $71.2K Spread 1.6%
    Agg +3,214
    ↑ +0.2%
    K +2,122
    P +3,290
    Kalshi +2,122
    Vol $3.1K 4–5¢
    Polymarket +3,290
    Vol $68.1K 2.9–3¢
    EH
    Ethan Hawke
    Vol $50.8K Spread 1.6%
    Agg +10,628
    ↓ -0.2%
    K +3,900
    P +11,011
    Kalshi +3,900
    Vol $1.0K 2–3¢
    Polymarket +11,011
    Vol $49.8K 0.8–1¢
    TI
    Tie
    Vol $76 Spread —
    Agg +19,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $76 0–1¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarket
    MBJ
    Michael B. Jordan
    -157
    ↑ +13.5%
    1.0%
    $225.5K
    Kalshi -153
    60–61¢ Vol $78.4K
    Polymarket -160
    61.2–61.8¢ Vol $147.2K
    TC
    Timothee Chalamet
    +217
    ↓ -14.2%
    0.0%
    $109.5K
    Kalshi +217
    31–32¢ Vol $47.2K
    Polymarket +217
    31–32¢ Vol $62.3K
    LD
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    +2,681
    — +0.0%
    1.0%
    $50.8K
    Kalshi +2,122
    4–5¢ Vol $2.5K
    Polymarket +2,717
    3.5–3.6¢ Vol $48.4K
    WM
    Wagner Moura
    +3,214
    ↑ +0.2%
    1.6%
    $71.2K
    Kalshi +2,122
    4–5¢ Vol $3.1K
    Polymarket +3,290
    2.9–3¢ Vol $68.1K
    EH
    Ethan Hawke
    +10,628
    ↓ -0.2%
    1.6%
    $50.8K
    Kalshi +3,900
    2–3¢ Vol $1.0K
    Polymarket +11,011
    0.8–1¢ Vol $49.8K
    TI
    Tie
    +19,900
    — +0.0%
    —
    $76
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $76
    Polymarket —
    —

    Available prop markets

    Who will attend the Oscars?

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    WES
    Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars
    Vol $29 Spread —
    Agg -13,233
    ↓ -0.1%
    P -13,233
    Polymarket -13,233
    Vol $29 99.1–99.4¢
    WTC
    Will Timothée Chalamet attend the Oscars
    Vol $2 Spread —
    Agg -8,991
    — +0.0%
    P -8,991
    Polymarket -8,991
    Vol $2 98.2–99.6¢
    WLD
    Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars
    Vol $193 Spread —
    Agg -4,662
    ↑ +5.9%
    P -4,662
    Polymarket -4,662
    Vol $193 96.7–99.1¢
    WMB
    Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars
    Vol $157 Spread —
    Agg -4,551
    ↓ -1.4%
    P -4,551
    Polymarket -4,551
    Vol $157 96.5–99.2¢
    WKJ
    Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars
    Vol $219 Spread —
    Agg -3,409
    ↓ -0.7%
    P -3,409
    Polymarket -3,409
    Vol $219 96.6–97.7¢
    KJ
    Kylie Jenner
    Vol $12 Spread —
    Agg -2,122
    ↑ +0.5%
    K -2,122
    Kalshi -2,122
    Vol $12 94–97¢
    LD
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Vol $175 Spread —
    Agg -1,718
    ↓ -1.5%
    K -1,718
    Kalshi -1,718
    Vol $175 92–97¢
    SP
    Sean Penn
    Vol $42 Spread —
    Agg -770
    ↓ -0.5%
    K -770
    Kalshi -770
    Vol $42 87–90¢
    WZA
    Will Zendaya attend the Oscars
    Vol $46 Spread —
    Agg -335
    ↓ -2.0%
    P -335
    Polymarket -335
    Vol $46 71–83¢
    ZE
    Zendaya
    Vol $2.2K Spread —
    Agg -335
    ↓ -2.5%
    K -335
    Kalshi -335
    Vol $2.2K 75–79¢
    WNK
    Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg -300
    — +0.0%
    P -300
    Polymarket -300
    Vol $0 53–97¢
    WMR
    Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars
    Vol $8 Spread —
    Agg -270
    ↓ -9.0%
    P -270
    Polymarket -270
    Vol $8 68–78¢
    MR
    Margot Robbie
    Vol $842 Spread —
    Agg -239
    ↓ -13.0%
    K -239
    Kalshi -239
    Vol $842 69–72¢
    RG
    Ryan Gosling
    Vol $108 Spread —
    Agg -228
    ↓ -2.0%
    K -228
    Kalshi -228
    Vol $108 67–72¢
    HW
    Hudson Williams
    Vol $247 Spread —
    Agg -199
    ↑ +3.0%
    K -199
    Kalshi -199
    Vol $247 64–69¢
    WCS
    Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars
    Vol $33 Spread —
    Agg -138
    ↑ +13.0%
    P -138
    Polymarket -138
    Vol $33 38–78¢
    CS
    Connor Storrie
    Vol $298 Spread —
    Agg -133
    ↑ +0.5%
    K -133
    Kalshi -133
    Vol $298 55–59¢
    WHW
    Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg -117
    ↓ -2.5%
    P -117
    Polymarket -117
    Vol $0 35–73¢
    WRG
    Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars
    Vol $178 Spread —
    Agg -117
    ↓ -10.5%
    P -117
    Polymarket -117
    Vol $178 33–75¢
    WSR
    Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars
    Vol $10 Spread —
    Agg -113
    ↑ +0.5%
    P -113
    Polymarket -113
    Vol $10 18–88¢
    HS
    Hailee Steinfeld
    Vol $433 Spread —
    Agg +239
    ↓ -6.0%
    K +239
    Kalshi +239
    Vol $433 15–44¢
    WKH
    Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg +545
    ↑ +1.5%
    P +545
    Polymarket +545
    Vol $0 6–25¢
    WTS
    Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars
    Vol $4 Spread —
    Agg +658
    ↑ +0.1%
    P +658
    Polymarket +658
    Vol $4 1.8–24.6¢
    KH
    Kevin Hart
    Vol $40 Spread —
    Agg +700
    ↓ -0.5%
    K +700
    Kalshi +700
    Vol $40 10–15¢
    OJ
    Olivia Jade
    Vol $2 Spread —
    Agg +809
    ↑ +0.5%
    K +809
    Kalshi +809
    Vol $2 7–15¢
    TS
    Taylor Swift
    Vol $4 Spread —
    Agg +1,233
    ↓ -0.5%
    K +1,233
    Kalshi +1,233
    Vol $4 5–10¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarket
    WES
    Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars
    -13,233
    ↓ -0.1%
    —
    $29
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -13,233
    99.1–99.4¢ Vol $29
    WTC
    Will Timothée Chalamet attend the Oscars
    -8,991
    — +0.0%
    —
    $2
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -8,991
    98.2–99.6¢ Vol $2
    WLD
    Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars
    -4,662
    ↑ +5.9%
    —
    $193
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -4,662
    96.7–99.1¢ Vol $193
    WMB
    Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars
    -4,551
    ↓ -1.4%
    —
    $157
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -4,551
    96.5–99.2¢ Vol $157
    WKJ
    Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars
    -3,409
    ↓ -0.7%
    —
    $219
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -3,409
    96.6–97.7¢ Vol $219
    KJ
    Kylie Jenner
    -2,122
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $12
    Kalshi -2,122
    94–97¢ Vol $12
    Polymarket —
    —
    LD
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    -1,718
    ↓ -1.5%
    —
    $175
    Kalshi -1,718
    92–97¢ Vol $175
    Polymarket —
    —
    SP
    Sean Penn
    -770
    ↓ -0.5%
    —
    $42
    Kalshi -770
    87–90¢ Vol $42
    Polymarket —
    —
    WZA
    Will Zendaya attend the Oscars
    -335
    ↓ -2.0%
    —
    $46
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -335
    71–83¢ Vol $46
    ZE
    Zendaya
    -335
    ↓ -2.5%
    —
    $2.2K
    Kalshi -335
    75–79¢ Vol $2.2K
    Polymarket —
    —
    WNK
    Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars
    -300
    — +0.0%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -300
    53–97¢ Vol $0
    WMR
    Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars
    -270
    ↓ -9.0%
    —
    $8
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -270
    68–78¢ Vol $8
    MR
    Margot Robbie
    -239
    ↓ -13.0%
    —
    $842
    Kalshi -239
    69–72¢ Vol $842
    Polymarket —
    —
    RG
    Ryan Gosling
    -228
    ↓ -2.0%
    —
    $108
    Kalshi -228
    67–72¢ Vol $108
    Polymarket —
    —
    HW
    Hudson Williams
    -199
    ↑ +3.0%
    —
    $247
    Kalshi -199
    64–69¢ Vol $247
    Polymarket —
    —
    WCS
    Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars
    -138
    ↑ +13.0%
    —
    $33
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -138
    38–78¢ Vol $33
    CS
    Connor Storrie
    -133
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $298
    Kalshi -133
    55–59¢ Vol $298
    Polymarket —
    —
    WHW
    Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars
    -117
    ↓ -2.5%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -117
    35–73¢ Vol $0
    WRG
    Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars
    -117
    ↓ -10.5%
    —
    $178
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -117
    33–75¢ Vol $178
    WSR
    Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars
    -113
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $10
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -113
    18–88¢ Vol $10
    HS
    Hailee Steinfeld
    +239
    ↓ -6.0%
    —
    $433
    Kalshi +239
    15–44¢ Vol $433
    Polymarket —
    —
    WKH
    Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars
    +545
    ↑ +1.5%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket +545
    6–25¢ Vol $0
    WTS
    Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars
    +658
    ↑ +0.1%
    —
    $4
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket +658
    1.8–24.6¢ Vol $4
    KH
    Kevin Hart
    +700
    ↓ -0.5%
    —
    $40
    Kalshi +700
    10–15¢ Vol $40
    Polymarket —
    —
    OJ
    Olivia Jade
    +809
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $2
    Kalshi +809
    7–15¢ Vol $2
    Polymarket —
    —
    TS
    Taylor Swift
    +1,233
    ↓ -0.5%
    —
    $4
    Kalshi +1,233
    5–10¢ Vol $4
    Polymarket —
    —

    What will the host say at the Oscars

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    MO
    "Mom"
    Vol $312 Spread —
    Agg 93.0%
    — +0.0%
    P 93.0%
    Polymarket 93.0%
    Vol $312 92–94¢
    NE
    "Netflix"
    Vol $10 Spread —
    Agg 87.0%
    ↑ +0.5%
    P 87.0%
    Polymarket 87.0%
    Vol $10 80–94¢
    PE
    "Peace"
    Vol $25 Spread —
    Agg 85.5%
    ↑ +1.0%
    P 85.5%
    Polymarket 85.5%
    Vol $25 81–90¢
    AOA
    "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"
    Vol $129 Spread —
    Agg 84.0%
    ↓ -2.0%
    P 84.0%
    Polymarket 84.0%
    Vol $129 79–89¢
    PR
    "President"
    Vol $297 Spread —
    Agg 83.5%
    — +0.0%
    P 83.5%
    Polymarket 83.5%
    Vol $297 77–90¢
    LE
    "Leo"
    Vol $10 Spread —
    Agg 79.5%
    ↑ +13.5%
    P 79.5%
    Polymarket 79.5%
    Vol $10 76–83¢
    CH
    "Chalamet"
    Vol $83 Spread —
    Agg 70.0%
    — +0.0%
    P 70.0%
    Polymarket 70.0%
    Vol $83 66–74¢
    PA
    "Palestine"
    Vol $12 Spread —
    Agg 69.5%
    ↑ +7.5%
    P 69.5%
    Polymarket 69.5%
    Vol $12 65–74¢
    IOI
    "Iran" or "Iranian"
    Vol $63 Spread —
    Agg 69.0%
    ↑ +0.5%
    P 69.0%
    Polymarket 69.0%
    Vol $63 68–70¢
    ME
    "Middle East"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 64.5%
    ↑ +2.0%
    P 64.5%
    Polymarket 64.5%
    Vol $0 57–72¢
    AL
    "Alien"
    Vol $9 Spread —
    Agg 63.5%
    ↑ +22.5%
    P 63.5%
    Polymarket 63.5%
    Vol $9 57–70¢
    KY
    "Kylie"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 62.5%
    ↑ +15.0%
    P 62.5%
    Polymarket 62.5%
    Vol $0 51–74¢
    UK
    "Ukraine"
    Vol $41 Spread —
    Agg 58.5%
    ↑ +11.0%
    P 58.5%
    Polymarket 58.5%
    Vol $41 53–64¢
    TR
    "Trump"
    Vol $501 Spread —
    Agg 56.0%
    ↑ +8.0%
    P 56.0%
    Polymarket 56.0%
    Vol $501 52–60¢
    EP
    "Epstein"
    Vol $941 Spread —
    Agg 54.0%
    — +0.0%
    P 54.0%
    Polymarket 54.0%
    Vol $941 46–62¢
    HO
    "Hottest"
    Vol $41 Spread —
    Agg 53.0%
    ↑ +11.5%
    P 53.0%
    Polymarket 53.0%
    Vol $41 45–61¢
    SE
    "Sex"
    Vol $2 Spread —
    Agg 48.5%
    — +0.0%
    P 48.5%
    Polymarket 48.5%
    Vol $2 31–66¢
    SH
    "Shame"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 43.5%
    ↓ -3.5%
    P 43.5%
    Polymarket 43.5%
    Vol $0 13–74¢
    EL
    "Ellison"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 42.0%
    ↓ -3.0%
    P 42.0%
    Polymarket 42.0%
    Vol $0 22–62¢
    GR
    "Greenland"
    Vol $14 Spread —
    Agg 38.5%
    ↓ -4.0%
    P 38.5%
    Polymarket 38.5%
    Vol $14 9–68¢
    EL
    "Elon"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 37.5%
    ↓ -0.5%
    P 37.5%
    Polymarket 37.5%
    Vol $0 17–58¢
    IOO
    "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice"
    Vol $43 Spread —
    Agg 35.0%
    ↓ -8.5%
    P 35.0%
    Polymarket 35.0%
    Vol $43 12–58¢
    AOC
    "Anthropic" or "Claude"
    Vol $26 Spread —
    Agg 34.0%
    ↓ -2.5%
    P 34.0%
    Polymarket 34.0%
    Vol $26 9–59¢
    WH
    "White House"
    Vol $10 Spread —
    Agg 32.5%
    ↓ -5.0%
    P 32.5%
    Polymarket 32.5%
    Vol $10 10–55¢
    DB
    "Dream Big"
    Vol $54 Spread —
    Agg 29.5%
    ↓ -12.5%
    P 29.5%
    Polymarket 29.5%
    Vol $54 12–47¢
    WSO
    "Will Smith" or "Punch"
    Vol $25 Spread —
    Agg 28.0%
    ↓ -12.0%
    P 28.0%
    Polymarket 28.0%
    Vol $25 21–35¢
    PO
    "Polymarket"
    Vol $261 Spread —
    Agg 18.0%
    ↓ -12.0%
    P 18.0%
    Polymarket 18.0%
    Vol $261 12–24¢
    CK
    "Charlie Kirk"
    Vol $32 Spread —
    Agg 12.0%
    ↓ -1.5%
    P 12.0%
    Polymarket 12.0%
    Vol $32 8–16¢
    ZOZ
    "Zionist" or "Zionism"
    Vol $63 Spread —
    Agg 9.5%
    ↓ -10.0%
    P 9.5%
    Polymarket 9.5%
    Vol $63 7–12¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumePolymarket
    MO
    "Mom"
    93.0%
    — +0.0%
    —
    $312
    Polymarket 93.0%
    92–94¢ Vol $312
    NE
    "Netflix"
    87.0%
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $10
    Polymarket 87.0%
    80–94¢ Vol $10
    PE
    "Peace"
    85.5%
    ↑ +1.0%
    —
    $25
    Polymarket 85.5%
    81–90¢ Vol $25
    AOA
    "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"
    84.0%
    ↓ -2.0%
    —
    $129
    Polymarket 84.0%
    79–89¢ Vol $129
    PR
    "President"
    83.5%
    — +0.0%
    —
    $297
    Polymarket 83.5%
    77–90¢ Vol $297
    LE
    "Leo"
    79.5%
    ↑ +13.5%
    —
    $10
    Polymarket 79.5%
    76–83¢ Vol $10
    CH
    "Chalamet"
    70.0%
    — +0.0%
    —
    $83
    Polymarket 70.0%
    66–74¢ Vol $83
    PA
    "Palestine"
    69.5%
    ↑ +7.5%
    —
    $12
    Polymarket 69.5%
    65–74¢ Vol $12
    IOI
    "Iran" or "Iranian"
    69.0%
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $63
    Polymarket 69.0%
    68–70¢ Vol $63
    ME
    "Middle East"
    64.5%
    ↑ +2.0%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 64.5%
    57–72¢ Vol $0
    AL
    "Alien"
    63.5%
    ↑ +22.5%
    —
    $9
    Polymarket 63.5%
    57–70¢ Vol $9
    KY
    "Kylie"
    62.5%
    ↑ +15.0%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 62.5%
    51–74¢ Vol $0
    UK
    "Ukraine"
    58.5%
    ↑ +11.0%
    —
    $41
    Polymarket 58.5%
    53–64¢ Vol $41
    TR
    "Trump"
    56.0%
    ↑ +8.0%
    —
    $501
    Polymarket 56.0%
    52–60¢ Vol $501
    EP
    "Epstein"
    54.0%
    — +0.0%
    —
    $941
    Polymarket 54.0%
    46–62¢ Vol $941
    HO
    "Hottest"
    53.0%
    ↑ +11.5%
    —
    $41
    Polymarket 53.0%
    45–61¢ Vol $41
    SE
    "Sex"
    48.5%
    — +0.0%
    —
    $2
    Polymarket 48.5%
    31–66¢ Vol $2
    SH
    "Shame"
    43.5%
    ↓ -3.5%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 43.5%
    13–74¢ Vol $0
    EL
    "Ellison"
    42.0%
    ↓ -3.0%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 42.0%
    22–62¢ Vol $0
    GR
    "Greenland"
    38.5%
    ↓ -4.0%
    —
    $14
    Polymarket 38.5%
    9–68¢ Vol $14
    EL
    "Elon"
    37.5%
    ↓ -0.5%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 37.5%
    17–58¢ Vol $0
    IOO
    "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice"
    35.0%
    ↓ -8.5%
    —
    $43
    Polymarket 35.0%
    12–58¢ Vol $43
    AOC
    "Anthropic" or "Claude"
    34.0%
    ↓ -2.5%
    —
    $26
    Polymarket 34.0%
    9–59¢ Vol $26
    WH
    "White House"
    32.5%
    ↓ -5.0%
    —
    $10
    Polymarket 32.5%
    10–55¢ Vol $10
    DB
    "Dream Big"
    29.5%
    ↓ -12.5%
    —
    $54
    Polymarket 29.5%
    12–47¢ Vol $54
    WSO
    "Will Smith" or "Punch"
    28.0%
    ↓ -12.0%
    —
    $25
    Polymarket 28.0%
    21–35¢ Vol $25
    PO
    "Polymarket"
    18.0%
    ↓ -12.0%
    —
    $261
    Polymarket 18.0%
    12–24¢ Vol $261
    CK
    "Charlie Kirk"
    12.0%
    ↓ -1.5%
    —
    $32
    Polymarket 12.0%
    8–16¢ Vol $32
    ZOZ
    "Zionist" or "Zionism"
    9.5%
    ↓ -10.0%
    —
    $63
    Polymarket 9.5%
    7–12¢ Vol $63

    Methodology & Data Mapping

    How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

    Aggregation Method

    Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

    Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

    Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

    Data Sources & Cadence

    Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

    Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

    Outcome Mapping

    Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

    Spread & Liquidity

    Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

    Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

    Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.