Prediction markets have taken in over $1 billion in Super Bowl volume, with more than $230 million trading on the Kalshi game-winner contract alone. With kickoff at Levi’s Stadium in two hours, we’ve put together a snapshot of our tracked Super Bowl odds markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Super Bowl LX odds board
| Market | Leading outcome | Prob | Odds | Venues | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game lines | |||||
Game winner | Seattle Seahawks | 66.5% | -199 | KP | $230.8M |
Spread (SEA -2.5) | Seattle covers | 64.0% | -178 | K | — |
| Player props | |||||
Super Bowl MVP | Sam Darnold | 46.0% | +117 | KP | $21.7M |
| Entertainment & halftime | |||||
Halftime guest performer | Cardi B | 52.0% | +108 | KP | $25.6M |
Bad Bunny first song | Tití Me Preguntó | 67.0% | -203 | KP | $73.3M |
| Celebrity attendance | |||||
Who will attend? | Cardi B | 95.5% | -2122 | KP | $1.8M+ |
Most traded celebrity | Timothée Chalamet | — | — | K | $13.7K |
| Super Bowl advertisers | |||||
Brand will advertise | Paramount+ | 48.0% | +108 | KP | $46.1M |
Coin-flip brand | Temu | 46.0% | +117 | KP | — |
| Announcer mention markets | |||||
Coin-flip mention | What a Catch | 51.0% | +96 | KP | $3.4M |
Meme mention 35 terms on Kalshi · 27 on Poly | Patrick Mahomes | — | — | KP | $48M szn |
Seahawks favored, but prediction markets see a tighter game
Key prediction market odds (as of Feb. 8, 2026 at 5:20 EST):
- Moneyline: Seattle Seahawks -199 (Kalshi) / -207 (Polymarket) | New England Patriots +190 (Kalshi) / +207 (Polymarket)
- Spread: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-178) (Kalshi contract threshold)
- Cross-platform spread: 3.9% on Patriots, 1.5% on Seahawks
- Traditional sportsbook line: SEA -4.5, O/U 45.5 via DraftKings
Seattle is trading at 66–67 cents on Kalshi’s game-winner contract (-199) and 67.4–67.5 cents on Polymarket (-207). That’s tighter than the DraftKings sportsbook line, which has the Seahawks at -240 (4.5-point favorites). New England has moved up 2.1 percent on the day across platforms.
Traditional sportsbooks have Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite, tied for the widest Super Bowl spread in 15 years. Kalshi’s spread contract at SEA -2.5 is only pricing a Seattle cover at 64 percent, suggesting prediction market bettors are less convinced the Seahawks run away with this than the Vegas consensus.
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Sam Darnold is the MVP favorite
Kalshi’s MVP market has Darnold at 46 percent (+117), with the contract having drawn $21.7 million in volume. Drake Maye is trading at roughly +240 on both platforms.
Quarterbacks on the winning team take MVP about 70 percent of the time. Maye was a full participant in all three practices this week after telling reporters on Thursday that his throwing shoulder had “turned a corner.” He carries no injury designation.
Darnold is similarly clear after being limited with an oblique injury since the divisional round.
The halftime show is drawing more volume than the MVP race
Bad Bunny’s halftime performance has generated $64.3 million in volume on Kalshi’s first-song contract alone, compared to $21.7 million traded on MVP. Tití Me Preguntó is the leading outcome at 61 percent (-156). The Puerto Rican artist, who won Album of the Year at the 2026 Grammys last week, previously appeared at the Super Bowl LIV halftime in 2020 alongside Jennifer Lopez and Shakira.
The guest performer contract has Cardi B at 60.5 percent (-153). Her attendance contract is separately trading at 95.5 percent on $1.8 million in volume.
Timothée Chalamet is the most-traded name in the celebrity attendance market at $13.7K in volume, though the category overall is one of the smaller Super Bowl pools.
Advertiser contracts total $46.1 million as information leaks loom
The “will this brand advertise during the Super Bowl” category has drawn $46.1 million in combined volume across Kalshi and Polymarket. Paramount+ is the leading outcome at 48 percent (+108), while Temu sits at 46 percent (+117).
These contracts are susceptible to information asymmetry — ad agency employees, media buyers, and network sales staff all have advance knowledge of the commercial lineup. Prices can spike or collapse in the hours before kickoff as information leaks into the market.
Mention markets: the category that didn’t exist a year ago
Announcer mention markets — binary contracts on whether specific words or phrases will be said during the broadcast — have generated $3.4 million in Super Bowl volume and $48 million across the full NFL season, a 715 percent increase from the category’s debut.
“What a Catch” is the closest coin flip at 51 percent (+96). Patrick Mahomes remains the most-traded mention term despite the Chiefs missing the playoffs. Cris Collinsworth calls his sixth Super Bowl alongside Mike Tirico on NBC.
Kalshi lists 35 mention terms for Super Bowl LX. Polymarket has 27.
Injury report: both teams mostly healthy
The final injury report cleared almost everyone. Both Darnold (oblique) and Maye (shoulder) are full go. Seattle rookie safety Nick Emmanwori, who sprained his ankle Wednesday, practiced fully Friday and has no game designation. Head coach Mike Macdonald quipped: “Turns out, he’s alive.”
New England’s biggest question marks are linebacker Robert Spillane (ankle) and edge rusher Harold Landry (knee), both listed as questionable. Spillane, who exited the AFC Championship early, has told reporters he plans to play. Landry missed the conference title game entirely.
The Patriots elevated running back D’Ernest Johnson and defensive lineman Leonard Taylor III from the practice squad Saturday.
Game details
Seahawks vs. Patriots kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, and Universo from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Charlie Puth sings the national anthem. Green Day opens the ceremony. Bad Bunny headlines halftime.
All prediction market prices are as of approximately 4:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 8, 2026. Prices update continuously and may differ at the time of reading.
