Brazil, Morocco, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and South Africa became the latest teams to qualify for the World Cup Round of 32 yesterday.
They will join Argentina, Colombia, France, Norway, Germany, the Netherlands, Mexico, and the USA in the knockout stage of the tournament.
Prediction markets give Germany a 67% chance of beating Ecuador today. The other game in Group E sees Curaçao take on Ivory Coast. Group F will then conclude with Tunisia vs. Netherlands and Japan vs. Sweden, before Group D wraps as the USMNT takes on Türkiye and Paraguay faces Australia.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Ecuador vs. Germany matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 4 p.m. ET on FOX from MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Ecuador vs. Germany (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Ecuador) | 17% | 17% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 18% | 18% |
| Moneyline (Germany) | 64% | 67% |
| Spread (Ecuador +1.5) | 62% | 62% |
| Spread (Germany -1.5) | 39% | 40% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 60% | 60% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 41% | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 55% | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 46% | 47% |
| First Team to Score (Ecuador) | 29% | 29% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 6% | 5% |
| First Team to Score (Germany) | 68% | 68% |
Ecuador will fight to keep its World Cup dream alive when it takes on Germany today. The Ecuadorians have picked up just one point from two games so far, and they’re now in the last chance saloon.
How Ecuador vs. Germany breaks down
Germany has already won Group E after beating Curaçao 7-1 and Ivory Coast 2-1 in its first two games. Manager Julian Nagelsmann may now decide to rest key players like Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz, and Joshua Kimmich for this game. That could boost Ecuador’s chances of picking up a vital win, but Germany’s reserves are also very dangerous.
Players such as Deniz Undav, Nick Woltemade, Leon Goretzka, and Antonio Rüdiger will be keen to impress Nagelsmann if they start this game. For that reason, Germany is the clear favorite to win this game, priced at 64% with Polymarket and 67% with Kalshi.
Ecuador impressed during the South American World Cup qualifying campaign. La Tri ended up second in the qualifying group, ahead of elite teams like Brazil and Colombia. The squad is full of talented players like Moisés Caicedo and Willian Pacho, but they’ve flopped so far at this tournament. La Tri lost 1-0 to Ivory Coast in its opener, despite creating a glut of chances, then played out a dismal 0-0 draw with Curaçao on Matchday 2.
The Ecuadorians will be fighting for survival in this game, and they’ll be desperate not to end the tournament without scoring a single goal. Both teams to score has paid off in both of Germany’s games so far, and it’s priced at 55% with Polymarket in this match. Undav, who has scored a goal every 19 minutes so far at this tournament, is trading at 39% to find the back of the net in this game.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There are five more World Cup matchups taking place today. We’re now on Matchday 3, so all four teams in each group need to play simultaneously. That’s designed to prevent any team from gaining an unfair tactical advantage.
Curaçao vs. Ivory Coast, 4 p.m. ET
Ivory Coast will clinch the runner-up spot in Group E if it avoids defeat against Curaçao in Philadelphia. Prediction sites make Ivory Coast the heavy favorite to win this game.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Curaçao vs. Ivory Coast (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Curaçao) | 5% | 6% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 11% | 11% |
| Moneyline (Ivory Coast) | 84% | 84% |
| Spread (Curaçao +2.5) | 58% | 59% |
| Spread (Ivory Coast -2.5) | 43% | 43% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 43% | 43% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 58% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 38% | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 63% | 63% |
| First Team to Score (Curaçao) | 16% | 14% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 4% | 5% |
| First Team to Score (Ivory Coast) | 82% | 82% |
Curaçao is the smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup. The island is roughly the same size as New Orleans, and it has a population of just 156,000. That showed during a heavy 7-1 defeat to Germany on Matchday 1, but Curaçao bounced back with a 0-0 draw against Ecuador. Goalkeeper Eloy Room was the hero of that game, as he made 15 saves, and he joked that they should build a statue of him back home.
The team may need more heroics from Room today. Ivory Coast is priced at 84% to win this match, but you can take Ivory Coast -2.5 at 43% if you want more value. The Ivorians beat Ecuador 1-0 in their opener, before suffering a narrow 2-1 defeat to Germany. They have lots of dangerous attackers in their ranks, including Amad Diallo and Yan Diomande, so prediction markets expect a comfortable win for Ivory Coast.
Tunisia vs. Netherlands, 7 p.m. ET
The Netherlands should finish top of Group F if it secures a heavy win against Tunisia at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Prediction sites make the Netherlands an overwhelming favorite, priced at 90% with Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Tunisia vs. Netherlands (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Tunisia) | 3% | 4% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 9% | 9% |
| Moneyline (Netherlands) | 90% | 90% |
| Spread (Tunisia +2.5) | 47% | 48% |
| Spread (Netherlands -2.5) | 54% | 53% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 48% | 49% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 53% | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 35% | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 66% | 68% |
| First Team to Score (Tunisia) | 13% | 12% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 3% | 3% |
| First Team to Score (Netherlands) | 86% | 86% |
Tunisia has endured a calamitous World Cup campaign. The Eagles of Carthage fired their manager following a 5-1 defeat to Sweden on Matchday 1. His replacement couldn’t stop them from losing 4-0 to Japan in their second game, so they’ve already been eliminated from the competition.
The players may lack motivation for this game, so the Dutch are priced at 54% to cover a 2.5-goal spread. That’s understandable when you consider that Tunisia has lost by a four-goal margin in both of its games so far.
The Netherlands began its campaign with a 2-2 draw against Japan, but the Oranje roared back to form with a 5-1 victory over Sweden. Ronald Koeman shifted Donyell Malen out to the right wing for that game, allowing Brian Brobbey to play as a traditional center-forward, and Brobbey scored twice. The Netherlands is now level on four points with Japan at the top of Group F. The teams also have an identical goal difference, so the Dutch players know they need a heavy win to guarantee first place today.
Japan vs. Sweden, 7 p.m. ET
This promises to be an entertaining game between two high-scoring teams. The action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET in Dallas.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Japan vs. Sweden (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Japan) | 52% | 54% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 27% | 27% |
| Moneyline (Sweden) | 21% | 22% |
| Spread (Japan -1.5) | 28% | 29% |
| Spread (Sweden +1.5) | 73% | 72% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 52% | 53% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 49% | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 57% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 44% | 43% |
| First Team to Score (Japan) | 60% | 60% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 6% |
| First Team to Score (Sweden) | 35% | 35% |
Sweden has arguably been the most entertaining team at the 2026 World Cup. The Swedes cruised to a 5-1 win against Tunisia, before losing 5-1 to the Netherlands. They look dangerous in attack, as Premier League stars Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, and Yasin Ayari have linked up well, but their defending has been woeful.
Japan did well to earn a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, before thumping Tunisia 4-0, so the players should be full of confidence. The Japanese forwards have enough quality to expose Sweden’s defensive frailties, but Japan could struggle to deal with the sheer physicality of Gyökeres and Isak at the other end of the pitch.
Both teams to score is trading at 57% with Polymarket, while over 2.5 goals is priced at 52%, and they could be popular markets. Isak has one goal and three assists in two games so far, and he’s priced at 38% with Kalshi to either score or assist in this game.
Türkiye vs. USA, 10 p.m. ET
This is a dead rubber, as Türkiye has already been eliminated and the USA has already won Group D. It could be a muted affair, but prediction markets make the USMNT the favorite to secure victory in front of a partisan crowd in Los Angeles.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Türkiye vs. USA (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Türkiye) | 25% | 26% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 23% | 23% |
| Moneyline (USA) | 52% | 55% |
| Spread (Türkiye +1.5) | 72% | 68% |
| Spread (USA -1.5) | 29% | 33% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 58% | 56% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 43% | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 57% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 44% | 44% |
| First Team to Score (Türkiye) | 37% | 37% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 7% |
| First Team to Score (USA) | 59% | 60% |
USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino is expected to rotate his team for this game. Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson probably won’t play. They’ve all picked up yellow cards, so they’d be suspended for the USA’s Round of 32 game if they were booked. All yellow cards will be wiped after the group stage, so there’s no need for Pochettino to risk them.
Christian Pulisic missed the USA’s 2-0 win against Australia with an injury, so he’s also unlikely to feature, while other players could be given a breather. However, the reserves will be keen to impress Pochettino, and they’ll also want to put on a show for their fans in Los Angeles, so the USMNT is priced at 52% with Polymarket and 55% with Kalshi to win this game.
Türkiye had 62 shots in its first two games, but it failed to score, losing 2-0 to Australia and 1-0 to Paraguay. If you think Türkiye can finally end its goal drought against a weakened USA team, both teams to score is trading at 57% with Polymarket.
Paraguay vs. Australia, 10 p.m. ET
These teams will fight for the runner-up spot in Group D when they lock horns in San Francisco. Australia has a superior goal difference right now, so a draw would be enough to secure second place for the Socceroos.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Paraguay vs. Australia (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Paraguay) | 35% | 34% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 43% | 43% |
| Moneyline (Australia) | 24% | 25% |
| Spread (Paraguay -1.5) | 14% | 17% |
| Spread (Australia +1.5) | 87% | 87% |
| Total Goals (Over 1.5) | 59% | 59% |
| Total Goals (Under 1.5) | 42% | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 43% | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 58% | 58% |
| First Team to Score (Paraguay) | 42% | 42% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 21% | 20% |
| First Team to Score (Australia) | 39% | 40% |
A draw would probably suit both teams in this game. Australia would qualify for the Round of 32 as the group runner-up, while Paraguay would also qualify as one of the eight best third-place teams. For that reason, the draw is priced at 43%.
Traders are expecting a tight, low-scoring game, with under 1.5 goals priced at 42%. Both teams to score is trading at just 43%, so this is unlikely to be a particularly entertaining affair.
Final Stretch of Group Stage
Several teams will book their places in the World Cup Round of 32 today. Matchday 3 continues tomorrow, and soccer fans can look forward to six games:
- Norway vs. France
- Senegal vs. Iraq
- Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia
- Uruguay vs. Spain
- New Zealand vs. Belgium
- Egypt vs. Iran
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
