Kalshi PGA Championship-related markets showed about $129.6 million in live volume as of this morning. The outright winner market accounted for about $110.4 million of that total, while newly active finishing-position, round-leader, scoring, category, head-to-head, and combo markets added the rest.
By comparison, Polymarket Global has about $1.37 million in outright event volume, while Polymarket US has about $216,000 in DefiRate-tracked outright notional. That’s roughly 80-to-1 against Polymarket Global and 510-to-1 against Polymarket US on the same broad market.
Kalshi and Polymarket Global both carry outright and finishing-position markets, while Polymarket US carries the outright and round-leader markets in DefiRate’s current snapshot. Category winners, head-to-heads, combo/exotics, and the deeper scoring props are Kalshi-only.
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in almost every market.
2026 PGA Championship odds board
| MARKET | LEADING | ODDS | VENUE | VOLUME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outright winner | ||||
| Outright winner | Scottie Scheffler | 15.5–17.0% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $110.4M |
| Finishing position | ||||
| Top 5 finish | Scottie Scheffler | 48–49% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $1.50M |
| Top 10 finish | Scottie Scheffler | 57–61% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $1.83M |
| Top 20 finish | Scottie Scheffler | 75–81% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $2.43M |
| Make the cut | Scottie Scheffler | 92.5% | Kalshi | $369K |
| Round leaders | ||||
| Round 1 leader | Scottie Scheffler | 5.4–6.0% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $10.5M |
| Round 2 leader | Scottie Scheffler (K); Jon Rahm (P) | 7.5% Kalshi; 18.2% Poly | Kalshi | $34K |
| Round 3 leader | Scottie Scheffler (K); Hao Li (P) | 10.0–10.1% Kalshi; 26.4% Poly | Kalshi, Polymarket | $14K |
| Winner by player category | ||||
| USA | Scottie Scheffler | 25.5% | Kalshi | $31K |
| Europe | Rory McIlroy | 11% | Kalshi | $28K |
| LIV | Jon Rahm | 34.5% | Kalshi | $52K |
| Asia-Pacific | Si Woo Kim | 16.5% | Kalshi | $16K |
| College/recent amateur | Derek Berg | 11.5% | Kalshi | $70K |
| Head-to-head matchups | ||||
| Young vs DeChambeau | Cameron Young | 58.5% | Kalshi | $23K |
| Scheffler vs McIlroy | Scottie Scheffler | 61.5% | Kalshi | $19K |
| Koepka vs Reed | Brooks Koepka | 52.5% | Kalshi | $15K |
| Combo/exotics | ||||
| Top 20 finish basket (7 legs) | Scheffler, McIlroy, Young, Fowler, Fleetwood, Reitan, Hojgaard all Top 20 | — | Kalshi | $3.04M |
| Make-cut basket (18 legs) | Scheffler, McIlroy, DeChambeau, Koepka, Morikawa + 13 others all make cut | — | Kalshi | $395K |
| Spieth double (2 legs) | Jordan Spieth Top 5 + outright winner | — | Kalshi | $78K |
| Scoring props | ||||
| Winning score | −13 to −15 | 32.5% | Kalshi | $37K |
| Low round of tournament | Under 66.5 | 99% | Kalshi | $21K |
| Margin of victory | Exactly 1 stroke | 31.5% | Kalshi | $2.1K |
| Tournament props | ||||
| 1+ holes-in-one | Yes | 47.5% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $80K |
| Playoff at end of regulation | Yes | 20.5% | Kalshi | $7.7K |
Leading outcome per open market · refreshed May 14, 2026 around 13:05 UTC unless otherwise noted.
Source: DefiRate aggregation from Kalshi live market/API data, Polymarket Gamma API data, and Polymarket US API snapshots. Volumes shown are Kalshi volume unless the text explicitly identifies Polymarket or Polymarket US.
Scheffler is the favorite in a $100 million outright market
The Kalshi outright winner event has cleared about $110.4 million in volume across 156 player contracts. Scheffler’s individual YES contract accounts for about $4.41 million of that total and trades around 16–17%. Polymarket Global and Polymarket US are in the same broad range for Scheffler, though the exact tick varies by venue and timestamp. Scheffler’s price is still roughly comparable to McIlroy and Cameron Young combined.
- The top five by current Kalshi price capture roughly the high-40s share of the displayed outright probability. The other 151 players split the remainder.
- McIlroy remains near the top of the board around 7–8%, but ranks behind the most-traded names by contract volume at roughly $2.56 million in current Kalshi live data.
- Jordan Spieth has about $4.20 million on a roughly 1.5–1.9% contract, second-most volume in the whole market. Spieth needs the PGA Championship, the only major he hasn’t won, to complete the career Grand Slam.
The same pattern shows up further down the board: Harry Hall has about $1.67 million on a sub-1% contract, Alex Fitzpatrick about $2.00 million, J.J. Spaun about $1.52 million, and Akshay Bhatia about $1.39 million.
Cameron Young remains one of the leading contenders by price at roughly 7%, and also one of the highest-volume contracts at about $3.78 million. Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, and McIlroy are also among the most-traded outright names.
Scheffler won the 2025 PGA at Quail Hollow, has two Masters titles, and enters Aronimink as the world’s top-ranked player. McIlroy is the back-to-back Masters champion chasing the calendar Grand Slam. Cameron Young remains near the top of the market board and has top-10 finishes in six of his last seven starts.
Round 1 leader is the second-biggest market on the board
Scheffler leads Kalshi’s Round 1 market around 5.4–6.0%, the Round 2 market around 7.5%, and the Round 3 market around 10%. Later-round markets are thinner and can differ more by venue, so those prices should be read as live market snapshots rather than a stable cross-platform consensus.
Kalshi and Polymarket Global are broadly aligned on Scheffler as a leading Round 1 name, while DefiRate’s latest Polymarket US snapshot differs in later rounds: Jon Rahm led the Round 2 board and Hao Li led the Round 3 board at the time of review, against Kalshi’s Scheffler-led later-round markets.
The Round 1 leader market on Kalshi has accumulated about $10.5 million in volume. Round 2 leader has cleared about $34,000, which should pick up after today’s results and re-price around a much narrower set of contenders.
Polymarket lists different favorites in finishing-position markets
Kalshi and Polymarket list different player sets and have different liquidity profiles in their top-5, top-10, and top-20 finish markets, which means the “favorite” on each platform isn’t necessarily available, liquid, or priced comparably on the other.
Polymarket finishing-position books are much thinner than Kalshi’s and can show stale or odd prices in Gamma search, so treat cross-platform finishing-position leaders as a venue-availability comparison rather than a clean consensus board:
- Top 5: Kalshi currently has Scheffler around 48–49%; Polymarket’s top-5 board should be verified at the exact market/order-book level before naming a definitive leader.
- Top 10: Kalshi has Scheffler around 57–61%; Polymarket’s listed leaders can differ because its player set and liquidity are not identical.
- Top 20: Kalshi has Scheffler around 75–81%; Polymarket’s displayed leaders should be treated cautiously where books are thin.
Polymarket Global volume on these finishing-position markets is tiny relative to Kalshi, roughly low-five-figures per market versus about $1.5 million, $1.8 million, and $2.4 million on Kalshi’s top-5, top-10, and top-20 markets.
The make-the-cut market is Kalshi-only in this review. Scheffler trades around 92.5%, and the market has about $369,000 in Kalshi volume. Aronimink, designed by Donald Ross, defends through positional precision rather than length. Scheffler is among the best iron players on tour.
The 7-leg combo is the third-biggest PGA market
The 7-leg top-20 finish basket — Scheffler, McIlroy, Young, Fowler, Fleetwood, Reitan, Hojgaard — has cleared $3.04 million. That single basket is bigger than every individual finishing-position market on Kalshi except the top 20.
Even with Scheffler’s 76% top-20 anchor, the basket requires the six other named players to all finish inside the top 20 as well.
The 18-leg make-cut basket has generated $395,000 in volume. Named legs include DeChambeau, Koepka, Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Schauffele. If each leg were independent at 90%, the basket would price around 15%, though the actual market can differ because golf outcomes and cut probabilities are correlated.
The Spieth double at $78,000 is a 2-leg same-player combo: top-5 finish AND outright winner. Since winning a tournament automatically clears the top-5 leg, the combo resolves identically to a straight Spieth outright. Same trade, different ticker.
Winner by player category
Kalshi’s player-category markets split the field by nationality, tour, and experience. Volumes range from $16,000 to $70,000.
- USA: Scheffler 25.5%. Roughly 1.5x his outright price; the category excludes the European and LIV fields.
- Europe: McIlroy 11%. The back-to-back Masters champion is priced at just 11% to win his own region. The market sees real competition from Hatton, Hojgaard, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, and Rahm.
- LIV: Jon Rahm 34.5%. The thinnest pool of top-line talent, and Rahm is the consensus pick over DeChambeau and Koepka.
- Asia-Pacific: Si Woo Kim 16.5%. The favorite in a wide-open category.
- College/recent amateur: Derek Berg 11.5%. The longest-shot category for a winner. $70,000 in volume.
Head-to-head matchups
Kalshi’s head-to-head markets carry two-player matchups with prices clustered around 50/50. The biggest by volume:
- Cameron Young over Bryson DeChambeau: 58.5% ($23K). Young has top-10 finishes in six of his last seven starts and remains near the top of the PGA Championship market board.
- Scheffler over McIlroy: 61.5% ($19K). Consistent with the outright board.
- Brooks Koepka over Patrick Reed: 52.5% ($15K). A near coin flip on two LIV players in the same field.
Scoring and tournament props
The winning-score market on Kalshi prices −13 to −15 at 32.5%. Aronimink hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since the 2018 BMW Championship and hasn’t held a major since 1962. At the 2018 event, Keegan Bradley carded a -20, winning in a playoff over Justin Rose.
The low-round market at 99% under 66.5 is priced like a near-certainty, though it is not resolved until the market settles. Margin of victory at exactly 1 stroke (31.5%) is the modal outcome. Major championship Sundays rarely produce blowouts.
Kalshi and Polymarket Global are in agreement on the hole-in-one market around 47.5%. Volume is sitting around $80,000 on Kalshi, with under $300 on Polymarket Global. The playoff probability sits around 20.5%.
How to watch
The 2026 PGA Championship runs Thursday, May 14, through Sunday, May 17. ESPN carries Rounds 1 and 2 from 12-8 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday, plus early weekend coverage from 10 a.m.-1 p.m. ET Saturday and Sunday. CBS picks up the primary broadcast from 1-7 p.m. ET Saturday and Sunday. ESPN+ streams featured groups, featured holes, and morning coverage all four days. Paramount+ streams the CBS weekend coverage.
