Rep. Chris Pappas is asking House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer to subpoena internal records from online prediction market platforms, escalating congressional scrutiny over suspiciously timed trades tied to military action, Iran war developments and foreign policy decisions.
The request comes as lawmakers point to alleged prediction market profits from nonpublic national-security information, while federal investigators are also probing suspicious oil futures trades placed before Iran-related announcements. Together, the allegations suggest Congress and federal investigators are now looking across both prediction markets and traditional commodities markets for signs that traders used advance knowledge of government decisions to profit.
In a letter to Comer, Pappas and six other House Democrats asked the committee to “open an investigation into apparent corruption and insider trading occurring in online prediction markets.” The lawmakers said public trading data can show suspicious activity, but platform records are likely necessary to identify the people behind the trades.
“The American public has a legitimate interest in knowing whether individuals entrusted with classified national security information have used that access for personal financial gain,” the lawmakers wrote. “A committee investigation, enforced with subpoenas, will include internal records, which are the only means by which the individuals who conducted these trades can be identified and the question of whether these platforms are upholding their responsibilities can be answered.”
The letter was signed by Pappas, House Oversight Committee member Rashida Tlaib, Sara Jacobs, Dina Titus, Seth Magaziner, Maggie Goodlander and Seth Moulton. It says lawmakers are “deeply concerned” that people with access to sensitive government information used that access for personal financial gain, and asks Oversight to investigate who placed the trades, whether any laws were broken and whether prediction market platforms are doing enough to prevent insider trading around national security events.
The request extends a growing congressional focus on prediction markets this year. Lawmakers have introduced a series of bills targeting everything from insider trading by public officials to sports event contracts, while separate congressional letters have pressed regulators, committee leaders and industry executives over offshore markets, Iran-linked trading and the social harms tied to online wagering.
Suspicious Iran and other military-related trades drive subpoena request
Pappas’ letter lays out several examples that lawmakers say point to possible misuse of sensitive information around Iran-related military and diplomatic events.
One account allegedly earned nearly $1 million while correctly forecasting unannounced U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, according to the letter. Lawmakers said the trader had a 93% success rate and entered positions shortly before strikes in October 2024, June 2025 and February 2026.
The letter also describes 38 accounts that allegedly made more than $2 million from Feb. 28 strikes after the accounts were funded the previous week. In another example, lawmakers said at least 50 new accounts took similar positions on an April 7 U.S./Iran ceasefire, with some accounts created minutes before the ceasefire was announced.
Those examples are meant to show the limits of public market data. Trading pages can reveal when positions were opened and how much money was made, but lawmakers say platform-level information is needed to connect those accounts to real people.
Lawmakers also pointed to recent criminal cases involving prediction markets and national-security information. Israeli authorities have charged two people, including a military reservist, for allegedly using classified information to place Iran-related bets on the Polymarket global platform.
The letter also references Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier charged by federal prosecutors in Manhattan with using classified information to profit from Polymarket bets tied to a U.S. military operation involving Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a parallel civil complaint against Van Dyke.
Pappas and the other lawmakers also raise access-control questions around Polymarket’s international platform, where most of the activity reportedly occurred. U.S. users are barred from accessing that site under Polymarket’s 2022 settlement with the CFTC, a point that overlaps with a separate letter lawmakers sent last month urging the agency to act against offshore prediction markets offering contracts tied to war, military operations and other national security events. That letter argued offshore platforms should not be able to sidestep U.S. derivatives law when their markets are tied to U.S. government actions.
The letter concludes by saying that Congress “has both the authority and the responsibility to determine whether existing ethics, classification, and financial disclosure laws have been violated, and whether legislative action is necessary to prevent recurrence.” The lawmakers say they can not fulfill that responsibility without knowing who placed the trades in question, and requested a response outlining Oversight’s approach by May 22.
DOJ probes oil trades tied to Iran war news
The lawmakers’ request for subpoenas comes as federal investigators are examining suspiciously timed trades in traditional oil markets tied to Iran war developments.
NBC News reported last week the Justice Department is probing a series of oil-market trades placed before major Iran-related announcements, including whether traders had advance knowledge of policy decisions that moved crude prices. NBC also reported that federal investigators are pursuing a separate probe into suspicious activity on prediction market platforms tied to Iran war developments.
Reuters reported that well-timed bets against oil prices totaled as much as $7 billion across crude, diesel and gasoline futures in March and April. The trades included short positions on markets operated by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, according to Reuters.
Those markets are separate from the prediction market platforms cited in the Pappas letter. But the overlap is notable because both exchange operators have ties to the growing prediction market sector. CME Group provides event contracts through partnerships with platforms like FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions, while Intercontinental Exchange has disclosed $1.6 billion in direct investments in Polymarket.
The parallel scrutiny shows how Iran-related trading concerns are now reaching both traditional commodity markets and prediction market platforms. In both cases, the central question is whether anyone used advance knowledge of government decisions to profit before the information became public.
Other recent congressional letters raise prediction market concerns
The Pappas request follows other recent congressional letters pressing for more scrutiny of prediction markets.
Last month, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, another House Oversight Committee member, asked Comer to hold a hearing and launch an investigation into whether senior Trump administration officials, their relatives or associates traded on advance knowledge of Iran war developments. Krishnamoorthi’s letter focused partly on social media comments from Trump before oil prices moved sharply.
Other lawmakers have focused on consumer protection and gambling harms. Reps. Valerie Foushee and Paul Tonko sent a letter earlier this week to sports betting and prediction market CEOs, including leaders at Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood, pressing them on underage access, advertising practices and addiction risks.
The Pappas letter is more closely tied to Krishnamoorthi’s Iran-trading concerns, but it takes a different route. While Krishnamoorthi asked for a hearing focused on possible trading by officials, Pappas is seeking platform records that could more directly show how the trades happened, who was behind them and what the companies saw internally before or after the wagers were placed.
