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Super Bowl Commercial Predictions

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Updated 4 minutes ago · 4:16 PM PST

Thirty seconds of Super Bowl airtime costs more than $8 million this year, and prediction markets are letting traders bet on who's buying. Kalshi and Polymarket both offer contracts for brands expected to appear. State Farm (99.3%), Amazon {99.0%) and Google (98.9%) are considered locks with all three trading above 98%. Hims & Hers and Liquid Death are trending on Kalshi, while Coinbase sits at 70.3% and Anthropic remains a coin flip at 51.5%. We aggregate odds and volume, tracking probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison. Stats updated every 30 minutes.

📊 Trade on Kalshi 📈 Trade on Polymarket

Largest Spread

3.40%

Coinbase → View arbs

Consensus Leader

99.3%

State Farm

24H Volume (Share)

$273.4K

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

State Farm

Vol $3.6K Spread —

Agg 99.3%

↑ +0.4%

P 99.3%

Polymarket 99.3%

Vol $3.6K 99.2–99.4¢

Amazon

Vol $6.8K Spread —

Agg 99.0%

↑ +1.1%

P 99.0%

Polymarket 99.0%

Vol $6.8K 98.6–99.4¢

Google

Vol $953 Spread —

Agg 98.9%

— +0.0%

P 98.9%

Polymarket 98.9%

Vol $953 98.6–99.2¢

Toyota

Vol $910 Spread —

Agg 98.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 98.8%

Polymarket 98.8%

Vol $910 98.4–99.1¢

Salesforce

Vol $934 Spread —

Agg 98.6%

— +0.0%

P 98.6%

Polymarket 98.6%

Vol $934 98.2–98.9¢

Liquid Death

Vol $11.9K Spread —

Agg 98.5%

— +0.0%

K 98.5%

Kalshi 98.5%

Vol $11.9K 98–99¢

Pepsi

Vol $20.8K Spread —

Agg 98.5%

— +0.0%

K 98.5%

Kalshi 98.5%

Vol $20.8K 98–99¢

T-Mobile

Vol $33.2K Spread —

Agg 98.5%

↑ +7.0%

K 98.5%

Kalshi 98.5%

Vol $33.2K 98–99¢

OpenAI

Vol $15.2K Spread 0.6%

Agg 97.6%

↑ +0.6%

P 98.1%

K 97.5%

Polymarket 98.1%

Vol $2.3K 97.6–98.5¢

Kalshi 97.5%

Vol $12.8K 97–98¢

Hims & Hers

Vol $3.6K Spread —

Agg 97.5%

— +0.0%

K 97.5%

Kalshi 97.5%

Vol $3.6K 97–98¢

Gemini

Vol $5.3K Spread 31.5%

Agg 86.3%

↓ -4.2%

K 87.5%

P 56.0%

Kalshi 87.5%

Vol $5.1K 87–88¢

Polymarket 56.0%

Vol $211 20–92¢

Disney+

Vol $2.1K Spread —

Agg 81.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 81.5%

Kalshi 81.5%

Vol $2.1K 81–82¢

Paramount+

Vol $11.1K Spread —

Agg 60.5%

↑ +6.5%

K 60.5%

Kalshi 60.5%

Vol $11.1K 60–61¢

Coinbase

Vol $41.8K Spread 6.0%

Agg 59.8%

↓ -10.0%

P 65.5%

K 59.5%

Polymarket 65.5%

Vol $2.3K 64–67¢

Kalshi 59.5%

Vol $39.4K 59–60¢

Anthropic

Vol $28.6K Spread 4.5%

Agg 52.7%

↑ +3.7%

P 57.0%

K 52.5%

Polymarket 57.0%

Vol $1.5K 56–58¢

Kalshi 52.5%

Vol $27.1K 52–53¢

Amazon Prime

Vol $22.0K Spread —

Agg 47.5%

↓ -10.0%

K 47.5%

Kalshi 47.5%

Vol $22.0K 47–48¢

Kraken

Vol $217 Spread —

Agg 36.0%

↑ +30.0%

P 36.0%

Polymarket 36.0%

Vol $217 7–65¢

Netflix

Vol $9.2K Spread —

Agg 35.5%

↓ -4.0%

K 35.5%

Kalshi 35.5%

Vol $9.2K 35–36¢

Allstate

Vol $9.7K Spread 4.5%

Agg 28.0%

↓ -19.0%

P 32.0%

K 27.5%

Polymarket 32.0%

Vol $1.2K 28–36¢

Kalshi 27.5%

Vol $8.6K 26–29¢

Vuori

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 24.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 24.5%

Kalshi 24.5%

Vol $1.5K 24–25¢

Temu

Vol $6.2K Spread —

Agg 21.5%

↓ -2.5%

K 21.5%

Kalshi 21.5%

Vol $6.2K 21–22¢

Spotify

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 20.5%

↓ -9.0%

K 20.5%

Kalshi 20.5%

Vol $1.5K 20–21¢

Robinhood

Vol $15 Spread —

Agg 20.5%

— +0.0%

P 20.5%

Polymarket 20.5%

Vol $15 19–22¢

Coca Cola

Vol $602 Spread —

Agg 20.0%

↑ +11.0%

P 20.0%

Polymarket 20.0%

Vol $602 17–23¢

Verizon/Visible

Vol $68 Spread —

Agg 17.5%

↓ -1.0%

P 17.5%

Polymarket 17.5%

Vol $68 13–22¢

Grok

Vol $435 Spread —

Agg 16.5%

↓ -3.0%

K 16.5%

Kalshi 16.5%

Vol $435 16–17¢

Jeep

Vol $10.3K Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↓ -2.0%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $10.3K 15–16¢

Perplexity AI

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $1.1K 15–16¢

Apple

Vol $296 Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↓ -2.5%

P 15.5%

Polymarket 15.5%

Vol $296 14–17¢

Crypto.com

Vol $121 Spread —

Agg 14.0%

↑ +0.5%

P 14.0%

Polymarket 14.0%

Vol $121 13–15¢

Athletic Greens

Vol $1.4K Spread —

Agg 13.5%

↓ -6.0%

K 13.5%

Kalshi 13.5%

Vol $1.4K 13–14¢

Nike

Vol $6.9K Spread —

Agg 13.5%

↑ +4.0%

K 13.5%

Kalshi 13.5%

Vol $6.9K 13–14¢

Progressive

Vol $327 Spread —

Agg 13.5%

↓ -4.5%

P 13.5%

Polymarket 13.5%

Vol $327 7–20¢

SHEIN

Vol $80 Spread —

Agg 12.5%

↓ -7.0%

K 12.5%

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $80 12–13¢

BlueChew

Vol $1.2K Spread —

Agg 11.5%

↓ -8.0%

K 11.5%

Kalshi 11.5%

Vol $1.2K 11–12¢

NVIDIA

Vol $387 Spread 0.5%

Agg 11.4%

↓ -1.6%

K 11.5%

P 11.0%

Kalshi 11.5%

Vol $336 11–12¢

Polymarket 11.0%

Vol $51 10–12¢

DoorDash

Vol $9.1K Spread —

Agg 10.5%

↓ -3.0%

K 10.5%

Kalshi 10.5%

Vol $9.1K 10–11¢

Yeezy

Vol $952 Spread —

Agg 9.5%

↓ -3.0%

K 9.5%

Kalshi 9.5%

Vol $952 9–10¢

Tesla

Vol $992 Spread —

Agg 8.5%

↓ -7.0%

K 8.5%

Kalshi 8.5%

Vol $992 8–9¢

Ripple

Vol $42 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

— +0.0%

P 7.0%

Polymarket 7.0%

Vol $42 4–10¢

XOX

xAI or X

Vol $43 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -1.0%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $43 5–8¢

Hyundai

Vol $660 Spread —

Agg 5.3%

↑ +2.2%

P 5.3%

Polymarket 5.3%

Vol $660 4.5–6¢

Perplexity

Vol $498 Spread —

Agg 4.2%

↓ -13.3%

P 4.2%

Polymarket 4.2%

Vol $498 1.3–7¢

Solana

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.1%

↑ +0.1%

P 4.1%

Polymarket 4.1%

Vol $0 1.2–6.9¢

Zyn

Vol $666 Spread —

Agg 3.5%

↓ -1.0%

K 3.5%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $666 3–4¢

DeepSeek

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 2.0%

↓ -0.5%

P 2.0%

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $0 1.1–2.8¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
SF State Farm	99.3% ↑ +0.4%	—	$3.6K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 99.3% 99.2–99.4¢ Vol $3.6K
AM Amazon	99.0% ↑ +1.1%	—	$6.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 99.0% 98.6–99.4¢ Vol $6.8K
GO Google	98.9% — +0.0%	—	$953	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 98.9% 98.6–99.2¢ Vol $953
TO Toyota	98.8% ↑ +0.2%	—	$910	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 98.8% 98.4–99.1¢ Vol $910
SA Salesforce	98.6% — +0.0%	—	$934	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 98.6% 98.2–98.9¢ Vol $934
LD Liquid Death	98.5% — +0.0%	—	$11.9K	Kalshi 98.5% 98–99¢ Vol $11.9K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
PE Pepsi	98.5% — +0.0%	—	$20.8K	Kalshi 98.5% 98–99¢ Vol $20.8K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
TM T-Mobile	98.5% ↑ +7.0%	—	$33.2K	Kalshi 98.5% 98–99¢ Vol $33.2K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
OP OpenAI	97.6% ↑ +0.6%	0.6%	$15.2K	Kalshi 97.5% 97–98¢ Vol $12.8K	Polymarket 98.1% 97.6–98.5¢ Vol $2.3K
HH Hims & Hers	97.5% — +0.0%	—	$3.6K	Kalshi 97.5% 97–98¢ Vol $3.6K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
GE Gemini	86.3% ↓ -4.2%	31.5%	$5.3K	Kalshi 87.5% 87–88¢ Vol $5.1K	Polymarket 56.0% 20–92¢ Vol $211
DI Disney+	81.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$2.1K	Kalshi 81.5% 81–82¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
PA Paramount+	60.5% ↑ +6.5%	—	$11.1K	Kalshi 60.5% 60–61¢ Vol $11.1K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
CO Coinbase	59.8% ↓ -10.0%	6.0%	$41.8K	Kalshi 59.5% 59–60¢ Vol $39.4K	Polymarket 65.5% 64–67¢ Vol $2.3K
AN Anthropic	52.7% ↑ +3.7%	4.5%	$28.6K	Kalshi 52.5% 52–53¢ Vol $27.1K	Polymarket 57.0% 56–58¢ Vol $1.5K
AP Amazon Prime	47.5% ↓ -10.0%	—	$22.0K	Kalshi 47.5% 47–48¢ Vol $22.0K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
KR Kraken	36.0% ↑ +30.0%	—	$217	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 36.0% 7–65¢ Vol $217
NE Netflix	35.5% ↓ -4.0%	—	$9.2K	Kalshi 35.5% 35–36¢ Vol $9.2K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
AL Allstate	28.0% ↓ -19.0%	4.5%	$9.7K	Kalshi 27.5% 26–29¢ Vol $8.6K	Polymarket 32.0% 28–36¢ Vol $1.2K
VU Vuori	24.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$1.5K	Kalshi 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
TE Temu	21.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$6.2K	Kalshi 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $6.2K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
SP Spotify	20.5% ↓ -9.0%	—	$1.5K	Kalshi 20.5% 20–21¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
RO Robinhood	20.5% — +0.0%	—	$15	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 20.5% 19–22¢ Vol $15
CC Coca Cola	20.0% ↑ +11.0%	—	$602	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 20.0% 17–23¢ Vol $602
VV Verizon/Visible	17.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$68	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 17.5% 13–22¢ Vol $68
GR Grok	16.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$435	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $435	Polymarket — — Vol $0
JE Jeep	15.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$10.3K	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $10.3K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
PA Perplexity AI	15.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $1.1K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
AP Apple	15.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$296	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 15.5% 14–17¢ Vol $296
CC Crypto.com	14.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$121	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 14.0% 13–15¢ Vol $121
AG Athletic Greens	13.5% ↓ -6.0%	—	$1.4K	Kalshi 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
NI Nike	13.5% ↑ +4.0%	—	$6.9K	Kalshi 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $6.9K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
PR Progressive	13.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$327	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 13.5% 7–20¢ Vol $327
SH SHEIN	12.5% ↓ -7.0%	—	$80	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $80	Polymarket — — Vol $0
BL BlueChew	11.5% ↓ -8.0%	—	$1.2K	Kalshi 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
NV NVIDIA	11.4% ↓ -1.6%	0.5%	$387	Kalshi 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $336	Polymarket 11.0% 10–12¢ Vol $51
DO DoorDash	10.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$9.1K	Kalshi 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $9.1K	Polymarket — — Vol $0
YE Yeezy	9.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$952	Kalshi 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $952	Polymarket — — Vol $0
TE Tesla	8.5% ↓ -7.0%	—	$992	Kalshi 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $992	Polymarket — — Vol $0
RI Ripple	7.0% — +0.0%	—	$42	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 7.0% 4–10¢ Vol $42
XOX xAI or X	6.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$43	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 6.5% 5–8¢ Vol $43
HY Hyundai	5.3% ↑ +2.2%	—	$660	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 5.3% 4.5–6¢ Vol $660
PE Perplexity	4.2% ↓ -13.3%	—	$498	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 4.2% 1.3–7¢ Vol $498
SO Solana	4.1% ↑ +0.1%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 4.1% 1.2–6.9¢ Vol $0
ZY Zyn	3.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$666	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $666	Polymarket — — Vol $0
DE DeepSeek	2.0% ↓ -0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 2.0% 1.1–2.8¢ Vol $0

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Quick Links
CO Coinbase	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 60¢	Sell @ P 64¢	+4.00%	+3.40%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
AN Anthropic	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 53¢	Sell @ P 56¢	+3.00%	+2.47%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
OP OpenAI	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 98¢	Sell @ P 97.6¢	-0.40%	-1.38%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
AL Allstate	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 29¢	Sell @ P 28¢	-1.00%	-1.29%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
NV NVIDIA	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 12¢	Sell @ K 11¢	-1.00%	-1.11%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GE Gemini	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 92¢	Sell @ K 87¢	-5.00%	-5.87%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Quick Link
SF State Farm	KR Kraken	Polymarket	A 99.3%	B 36.0%	+63.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AM Amazon	KR Kraken	Polymarket	A 99.0%	B 36.0%	+63.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GO Google	KR Kraken	Polymarket	A 98.9%	B 36.0%	+62.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TO Toyota	KR Kraken	Polymarket	A 98.8%	B 36.0%	+62.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SA Salesforce	KR Kraken	Polymarket	A 98.6%	B 36.0%	+62.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
OP OpenAI	KR Kraken	Polymarket	A 98.1%	B 36.0%	+62.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
LD Liquid Death	AN Anthropic	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 52.5%	+46.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
PE Pepsi	AN Anthropic	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 52.5%	+46.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TM T-Mobile	AN Anthropic	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 52.5%	+46.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
OP OpenAI	AN Anthropic	Kalshi	A 97.5%	B 52.5%	+45.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
HH Hims & Hers	AN Anthropic	Kalshi	A 97.5%	B 52.5%	+45.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SF State Farm	GE Gemini	Polymarket	A 99.3%	B 56.0%	+43.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AM Amazon	GE Gemini	Polymarket	A 99.0%	B 56.0%	+43.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GO Google	GE Gemini	Polymarket	A 98.9%	B 56.0%	+42.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TO Toyota	GE Gemini	Polymarket	A 98.8%	B 56.0%	+42.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SA Salesforce	GE Gemini	Polymarket	A 98.6%	B 56.0%	+42.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SF State Farm	AN Anthropic	Polymarket	A 99.3%	B 57.0%	+42.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
OP OpenAI	GE Gemini	Polymarket	A 98.1%	B 56.0%	+42.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AM Amazon	AN Anthropic	Polymarket	A 99.0%	B 57.0%	+42.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GO Google	AN Anthropic	Polymarket	A 98.9%	B 57.0%	+41.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TO Toyota	AN Anthropic	Polymarket	A 98.8%	B 57.0%	+41.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SA Salesforce	AN Anthropic	Polymarket	A 98.6%	B 57.0%	+41.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
OP OpenAI	AN Anthropic	Polymarket	A 98.1%	B 57.0%	+41.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
LD Liquid Death	CO Coinbase	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 59.5%	+39.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
PE Pepsi	CO Coinbase	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 59.5%	+39.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TM T-Mobile	CO Coinbase	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 59.5%	+39.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
LD Liquid Death	PA Paramount+	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 60.5%	+38.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
PE Pepsi	PA Paramount+	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 60.5%	+38.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TM T-Mobile	PA Paramount+	Kalshi	A 98.5%	B 60.5%	+38.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
OP OpenAI	CO Coinbase	Kalshi	A 97.5%	B 59.5%	+38.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Super Bowl LX advertisers: confirmed brands

NBC Universal has sold out its ad inventory for Super Bowl LX, with 30-second spots reaching $8 to $10 million. The list of confirmed advertisers includes:

Budweiser (Confirmed)	Bud Light (Confirmed)	Michelob Ultra (Confirmed)
Instacart (Confirmed)	Pepsi Zero Sugar (Confirmed)	Dunkin’ (Confirmed)
Uber Eats (Confirmed)	Hellmann’s (Confirmed)	Pringles (Confirmed)
Toyota (Confirmed)	Cadillac (Confirmed)	Oikos (Confirmed)
Liquid I.V. (Confirmed)	Squarespace (Confirmed)	He Gets Us (Confirmed)
SVEDKA Vodka (Confirmed)	Kinder Bueno (Confirmed)	State Farm (Confirmed)
OpenAI (Confirmed)	Dove (Confirmed)	TurboTax (Confirmed)
Lay’s (Confirmed)	WeatherTech (Confirmed)	Google (Unconfirmed)
Salesforce (Unconfirmed)	Liquid Death (Unconfirmed)	Amazon (Unconfirmed)
Hims & Hers (Unconfirmed)	T-Mobile (Unconfirmed)	Gemini (Unconfirmed)
Disney+ (Unconfirmed)	Coinbase (Unconfirmed)	Amazon Prime (Unconfirmed)
Paramount+ (Unconfirmed)	Anthropic (Unconfirmed)	Allstate (Unconfirmed)
Netflix (Unconfirmed)	Spotify (Unconfirmed)	Temu (Unconfirmed)
Robinhood (Unconfirmed)	Verizon/Visible (Unconfirmed)	Progressive (Unconfirmed)
Jeep (Unconfirmed)

Who’s sitting out

Nike will not air a Super Bowl ad this year after returning to the game last year following a 27-year absence.

How this market resolves

Kalshi: Kalshi’s market asks “Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Pro Football Championship?”. Your contract resolves to “Yes” if the listed company runs one or more advertisements during the national broadcast of Super Bowl LX on Fox. The advertisement must air between kickoff and the final whistle to qualify.

Resolution criteria allows co-funded or co-branded ads for all listed companies involved. Brands at least 50% owned by a listed company count for the parent (e.g., Beats counts for Apple). The resolution source is the official broadcast of Super Bowl LX, with consensus of credible reporting as backup.

Kalshi charges trading fees up to 2% per contract, with lower fees at probability extremes. Deposits via ACH are free; debit cards incur a 2% deposit fee and $2 withdrawal fee.

Polymarket: Polymarket’s market asks “Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?”. Your contract resolves to “Yes” if the brand airs a qualifying advertisement during the broadcast. Qualifying ads include commercials featuring the brand, sponsorship segments clearly identifying the brand (e.g., “This halftime show brought to you by…”), or branded content integration with prominent display. The ad must occur after kickoff and before regulation time (or overtime) ends.

Stadium signage without dedicated airtime, pre-game ads, post-game ads, streaming-only ads, regional ads, and parent company ads without specific brand identification do not qualify. Co-branded advertisements with equal billing count as qualifying. Resolution sources will include NFL, CBS Sports, NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ABC Sports, ESPN, The New York Times, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Ad Age, Marketing Land, Sports Business Journal, USA Today, CNN, and STAT News.

Polymarket’s global exchange charges no trading fees on most markets, though standard blockchain gas fees apply for deposits and withdrawals. The upcoming Polymarket US exchange will charge 0.01% per trade.

Key difference: Polymarket explicitly includes sponsorship segments and branded integrations beyond traditional commercials. Kalshi’s rules are more narrowly focused on advertisements only.

More Super Bowl markets

Super Bowl odds	Halftime show odds
Announcer mention odds	Prediction market promos
Super Bowl MVP odds	Free Super Bowl squares

Prediction market angle

Kalshi and Polymarket both run markets asking which brands will advertise during the game. The combined volume for this market has exceeded $2.1 million, though these markets carry unique risks.

Brands that have publicly confirmed plans trade near certainty. Examples of this include OpenAI at 97-98% after the Wall Street Journal reported its ad buy. Google and Liquid Death both trade at 99% following confirmations to industry publications. These near-certain outcomes function as low-yield “bonds” in prediction markets.

As with other markets, Super Bowl ads run a risk for information leaks. Hundreds of employees at any given company know whether their employer is running a spot before it’s publicly announced. Kalshi prohibits insider trading in its rulebook, but enforcement is difficult to verify. Polymarket’s global exchange has no such restrictions.

CNBC reported that Spotify’s odds on Kalshi spiked from $0.35 to $0.69 on January 19 before settling back down, a pattern consistent with potential insider activity. As of this writing, Spotify “Yes” is trading at 29.5%.

NFL bans prediction markets from advertising

In an ironic twist, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket can advertise during the game. The NFL added prediction markets to its “prohibited categories” list alongside tobacco, pornography and firearms, citing concerns about market manipulation and lack of regulatory safeguards. DraftKings and FanDuel will run sportsbook ads, but their prediction market products cannot be mentioned.

Super Bowl ad history (2016-2026)

Brand	Last 10 years
State Farm	2020, 2021, 2024, 2026
Google	2017, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Toyota	2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026
Salesforce	2022, 2025, 2026
Liquid Death	2025, 2026
Pepsi	2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2026
Amazon	2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025
Hims & Hers	2024, 2026
OpenAI	2025, 2026
T-Mobile	2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Gemini (Google)	2024, 2025
Disney+	2022, 2024, 2025
Coinbase	2022
Amazon Prime	2022
Paramount+	2019, 2021, 2023
Anthropic	Never advertised
Allstate	2021
Netflix	2017, 2018, 2022, 2023
Spotify	Never advertised
Temu	2024, 2025
Verizon/Visible	2017, 2021, 2022, 2024
Progressive	2020, 2024
Jeep	2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2025

Our source information is reviewed periodically to ensure accuracy, with dates noted of the last change.

“2026 Super Bowl Advertisers.” iSpot. Accessed February 3, 2026. https://www.ispot.tv/events/2026-super-bowl-advertisers
“Super Bowl Commercials 2026: All the Ads and Teasers We’ve Seen So Far.” Tom’s Guide. Accessed February 3, 2026. https://www.tomsguide.com/entertainment/streaming/super-bowl-commercials-2026-all-the-ads-and-teasers-weve-seen-so-far
“2026 Super Bowl Ad Cost Reaches Staggering Amount.” Sportsnaut. Accessed February 3, 2026. https://sportsnaut.com/nfl/2026-super-bowl-ad-cost-10-million
“Super Bowl Ad Prediction Market Contracts.” CNBC. January 30, 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/super-bowl-ad-prediction-market-contracts.html

About The Author

Cheryle Shepstone

Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-check. Before DeFi Rate, she led content and growth strategy at Catena Media, where she helped shape content and revenue strategy for regulated and financial markets. She has 20 years of experience in research and marketing strategy

Super Bowl Commercial Predictions

Current Odds Snapshot

Probability Over Time

Arbitrage Scanner

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome Diff

Super Bowl LX advertisers: confirmed brands

Who’s sitting out

How this market resolves

Prediction market angle

NFL bans prediction markets from advertising

Super Bowl ad history (2016-2026)

Sources: