Steelers vs. Patriots Week 2 Odds & Predictions
Pittsburgh visits Gillette Stadium for an AFC matchup with New England on Sunday, September 20 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. The prediction-market consensus has New England favored at -174 (63.5% implied probability), with Pittsburgh trading at +167 (37.5%). DeFi Rate's Steelers vs. Patriots tracker uses exact full-game winner contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket to calculate a volume-weighted line, compare venue pricing and surface the widest spread, with fresh data every hour.
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Current Steelers vs. Patriots Odds: New England Favorite to Win
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
NENew England
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
63.5%↓ -4.0%
K
63.5%
P
63.0%
U
62.5%
PIPittsburgh
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
37.5%↑ +5.0%
U
38.0%
K
37.5%
P
37.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE New England | 63.5% ↓ -4.0% | 1.0% | — |
Kalshi
63.5%
|
Polymarket
63.0%
|
Polymarket US
62.5%
|
PI Pittsburgh | 37.5% ↑ +5.0% | 1.0% | — |
Kalshi
37.5%
|
Polymarket
37.0%
|
Polymarket US
38.0%
|
Week 2 line movement: Steelers vs. Patriots
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Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE New England |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 39¢ | Sell @ K 63¢ | +24.00% | +23.37% |
Yes | |
PI Pittsburgh |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 38¢ | Sell @ U 37.5¢ | -0.50% | -0.88% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE New England |
PI Pittsburgh |
Kalshi | A 63.5% | B 37.5% | +26.00% | Buy spread | |
NE New England |
PI Pittsburgh |
Polymarket | A 63.0% | B 37.0% | +26.00% | Buy spread | |
NE New England |
PI Pittsburgh |
Polymarket US | A 62.5% | B 38.0% | +24.50% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
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