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WTI Oil Price Predictions: How High Will Spot Price Get in 2026?

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Updated 41 minutes ago · 3:42 PM PDT

Prediction markets are pricing oil above $100 by year end as a near-certainty, and the spot price is doing a lot of the work for them. WTI crude has already breached $98 a barrel i March, putting the $100 threshold within striking distance and explaining why the higher price brackets have seen the most trading activity on Kalshi. One important caveat before reading too much into the cross-platform data: Kalshi's oil markets resolve against the end-of-year price, while Polymarket prices monthly contracts. They're not answering the same question, and the volume split heavily favors Kalshi's annual markets as a result. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for price of oil in 2026 is updated every 30 minutes with probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Largest Spread

0.00%

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$85.01 or above +0.5%

24H Volume (Share)

$190.0K

Momentum Leader

+7.5%

$72 YTD change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Kalshi vs. Polymarket price of oil markets

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

80O

$85.01 or above

Vol $40.3K Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +0.5%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $40.3K 0–100¢

90O

$90.01 or above

Vol $25.9K Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +0.5%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $25.9K 0–100¢

$48

Vol $301 Spread —

Agg 98.9%

— +0.0%

P 98.9%

Polymarket 98.9%

Vol $301 98–99.7¢

$52

Vol $497 Spread —

Agg 98.6%

— +0.0%

P 98.6%

Polymarket 98.6%

Vol $497 97.5–99.7¢

$56

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 97.5%

— +0.0%

P 97.5%

Polymarket 97.5%

Vol $0 96–98.9¢

$60

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 93.5%

— +0.0%

P 93.5%

Polymarket 93.5%

Vol $0 90–97¢

$64

Vol $40 Spread —

Agg 90.5%

↓ -0.5%

P 90.5%

Polymarket 90.5%

Vol $40 85–96¢

$72

Vol $36 Spread —

Agg 89.0%

↑ +7.5%

P 89.0%

Polymarket 89.0%

Vol $36 82–96¢

90O

$95.01 or above

Vol $36.1K Spread —

Agg 87.0%

↓ -10.5%

K 87.0%

Kalshi 87.0%

Vol $36.1K 85–89¢

$76

Vol $47 Spread —

Agg 81.0%

↓ -10.0%

P 81.0%

Polymarket 81.0%

Vol $47 69–93¢

10O

$100.01 or above

Vol $8.5K Spread —

Agg 72.0%

↓ -20.0%

K 72.0%

Kalshi 72.0%

Vol $8.5K 68–76¢

$80

Vol $137 Spread —

Agg 68.0%

↓ -27.0%

P 68.0%

Polymarket 68.0%

Vol $137 51–85¢

10O

$105.01 or above

Vol $3.1K Spread —

Agg 61.0%

↓ -36.5%

K 61.0%

Kalshi 61.0%

Vol $3.1K 54–68¢

10O

$110.01 or above

Vol $3.2K Spread —

Agg 56.0%

↓ -36.5%

K 56.0%

Kalshi 56.0%

Vol $3.2K 49–63¢

$68

Vol $142 Spread —

Agg 54.5%

↓ -40.5%

P 54.5%

Polymarket 54.5%

Vol $142 13–96¢

10O

$115.01 or above

Vol $6.6K Spread —

Agg 50.5%

↓ -44.0%

K 50.5%

Kalshi 50.5%

Vol $6.6K 50–51¢

$84

Vol $210 Spread —

Agg 50.5%

↓ -26.5%

P 50.5%

Polymarket 50.5%

Vol $210 14–87¢

10O

$120.01 or above

Vol $12.8K Spread —

Agg 43.0%

↓ -37.0%

K 43.0%

Kalshi 43.0%

Vol $12.8K 42–44¢

10O

$125.01 or above

Vol $7.0K Spread —

Agg 39.5%

↓ -32.5%

K 39.5%

Kalshi 39.5%

Vol $7.0K 39–40¢

10O

$130.01 or above

Vol $12.2K Spread —

Agg 35.5%

↓ -35.5%

K 35.5%

Kalshi 35.5%

Vol $12.2K 34–37¢

10O

$135.01 or above

Vol $5.5K Spread —

Agg 31.5%

↓ -29.5%

K 31.5%

Kalshi 31.5%

Vol $5.5K 30–33¢

10O

$140.01 or above

Vol $10.0K Spread —

Agg 26.5%

↓ -22.0%

K 26.5%

Kalshi 26.5%

Vol $10.0K 26–27¢

10O

$150.01 or above

Vol $9.3K Spread —

Agg 24.5%

↓ -7.5%

K 24.5%

Kalshi 24.5%

Vol $9.3K 24–25¢

10O

$180.01 or above

Vol $5.0K Spread —

Agg 14.0%

↓ -1.5%

K 14.0%

Kalshi 14.0%

Vol $5.0K 13–15¢

10O

$160.01 or above

Vol $3.0K Spread —

Agg 13.5%

↓ -13.0%

K 13.5%

Kalshi 13.5%

Vol $3.0K 13–14¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
80O $85.01 or above	100.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$40.3K	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $40.3K	Polymarket — —
90O $90.01 or above	100.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$25.9K	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $25.9K	Polymarket — —
48 $48	98.9% — +0.0%	—	$301	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 98.9% 98–99.7¢ Vol $301
52 $52	98.6% — +0.0%	—	$497	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 98.6% 97.5–99.7¢ Vol $497
56 $56	97.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 97.5% 96–98.9¢ Vol $0
60 $60	93.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 93.5% 90–97¢ Vol $0
64 $64	90.5% ↓ -0.5%	—	$40	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 90.5% 85–96¢ Vol $40
72 $72	89.0% ↑ +7.5%	—	$36	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 89.0% 82–96¢ Vol $36
90O $95.01 or above	87.0% ↓ -10.5%	—	$36.1K	Kalshi 87.0% 85–89¢ Vol $36.1K	Polymarket — —
76 $76	81.0% ↓ -10.0%	—	$47	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 81.0% 69–93¢ Vol $47
10O $100.01 or above	72.0% ↓ -20.0%	—	$8.5K	Kalshi 72.0% 68–76¢ Vol $8.5K	Polymarket — —
80 $80	68.0% ↓ -27.0%	—	$137	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 68.0% 51–85¢ Vol $137
10O $105.01 or above	61.0% ↓ -36.5%	—	$3.1K	Kalshi 61.0% 54–68¢ Vol $3.1K	Polymarket — —
10O $110.01 or above	56.0% ↓ -36.5%	—	$3.2K	Kalshi 56.0% 49–63¢ Vol $3.2K	Polymarket — —
68 $68	54.5% ↓ -40.5%	—	$142	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 54.5% 13–96¢ Vol $142
10O $115.01 or above	50.5% ↓ -44.0%	—	$6.6K	Kalshi 50.5% 50–51¢ Vol $6.6K	Polymarket — —
84 $84	50.5% ↓ -26.5%	—	$210	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 50.5% 14–87¢ Vol $210
10O $120.01 or above	43.0% ↓ -37.0%	—	$12.8K	Kalshi 43.0% 42–44¢ Vol $12.8K	Polymarket — —
10O $125.01 or above	39.5% ↓ -32.5%	—	$7.0K	Kalshi 39.5% 39–40¢ Vol $7.0K	Polymarket — —
10O $130.01 or above	35.5% ↓ -35.5%	—	$12.2K	Kalshi 35.5% 34–37¢ Vol $12.2K	Polymarket — —
10O $135.01 or above	31.5% ↓ -29.5%	—	$5.5K	Kalshi 31.5% 30–33¢ Vol $5.5K	Polymarket — —
10O $140.01 or above	26.5% ↓ -22.0%	—	$10.0K	Kalshi 26.5% 26–27¢ Vol $10.0K	Polymarket — —
10O $150.01 or above	24.5% ↓ -7.5%	—	$9.3K	Kalshi 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $9.3K	Polymarket — —
10O $180.01 or above	14.0% ↓ -1.5%	—	$5.0K	Kalshi 14.0% 13–15¢ Vol $5.0K	Polymarket — —
10O $160.01 or above	13.5% ↓ -13.0%	—	$3.0K	Kalshi 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $3.0K	Polymarket — —

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.