Kevin Warsh Officially Nominated to Fed Chair on March 4

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Updated 2 weeks ago · 8:40 AM PST

President Trump announced this morning that he's nominating Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, beating out Judy Shelton. Warsh previously served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, where he was central to the bank's response to the 2008 financial crisis. He was a finalist in the 2017 Fed chair search before Trump ultimately selected Powell. Prediction markets signaled the pick hours before the official announcement. On Kalshi's Fed chair market, Warsh's odds surged from 31.2% to 81% on the evening of January 29 after reports emerged that he had met with Trump at the White House. By this morning, his probability had climbed above 95%.

Largest Spread

3.85%

Judy Shelton

Consensus Leader

99.7%

Kevin Warsh +59.2%

Total Volume (Share)

—

Momentum Leader

+59.2%

Kevin Warsh All-time change

Probability Over Time

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Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Kevin Warsh

Vol — Spread 0.9%

Agg 99.7%

↑ +59.2%

P 99.9%

K 99.5%

F 99.0%

Polymarket 99.9%

Vol $52.1M 99.8–99.9¢

Kalshi 99.5%

Vol $15.9M 99–100¢

ForecastEx 99.0%

99¢

DTH

Donald Trump (Himself)

Vol $23.6M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $24.5K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $23.6M 0.1¢

Judy Shelton

Vol — Spread 3.9%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -2.3%

F 4.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

ForecastEx 4.0%

4¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $28.4M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $109.9M 0.1–0.2¢

Bill Pulte

Vol $24.5M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $12.1K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $24.5M 0.1¢

Arthur Laffer

Vol $21.2M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2.7K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $21.2M 0.1¢

Jerome Powell

Vol $27.9M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $12.7K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $27.9M 0.1¢

Barron Trump

Vol $20.9M Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $20.9M 0.1¢

Christopher Waller

Vol — Spread 2.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -11.5%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 2.0%

2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $3.4M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $29.2M 0.1¢

David Malpass

Vol — Spread 2.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 2.0%

2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $14.1K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $6.3M 0.1¢

David Zervos

Vol $18.0M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $61.0K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $17.9M 0.1¢

Howard Lutnick

Vol $3.0M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $6.8K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $3.0M 0.1¢

JBB

James B. Bullard

Vol $2.8M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $22.3K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $2.8M 0.1¢

Janet Yellen

Vol $21.3M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $341 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $21.3M 0.1¢

Kevin Hassett

Vol — Spread 2.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -39.5%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 2.0%

2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $5.2M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $36.1M 0.1¢

Larry Kudlow

Vol $10.4M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2.7K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $10.4M 0.1¢

Larry Lindsey

Vol $6.1M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $10.4K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $6.1M 0.1¢

LKL

Lorie K. Logan

Vol $2.9M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $15.2K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $2.9M 0.1¢

Marc Sumerlin

Vol $4.4M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $23.4K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $4.3M 0.1¢

Michelle Bowman

Vol — Spread 2.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -2.5%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 2.0%

2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $3.5M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $26.0M 0.1¢

Philip Jefferson

Vol $10.8M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $13.4K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $10.8M 0.1¢

Rick Rieder

Vol — Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -4.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $4.4M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $35.5M 0.1¢

Ron Paul

Vol $12.7M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $500 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $12.7M 0.1¢

Scott Bessent

Vol — Spread 2.9%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -2.5%

F 3.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 3.0%

3¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1.9M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $38.7M 0.1¢

Stephen Miran

Vol $24.1M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1.3M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $22.8M 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	ForecastEx
KW Kevin Warsh	99.7% ↑ +59.2%	0.9%	—	Kalshi 99.5% 99–100¢ Vol $15.9M	Polymarket 99.9% 99.8–99.9¢ Vol $52.1M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 99.0% 99¢
DTH Donald Trump (Himself)	0.5% — +0.0%	0.5%	$23.6M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $24.5K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $23.6M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
JS Judy Shelton	0.2% ↓ -2.3%	3.9%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $28.4M	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $109.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢
BP Bill Pulte	0.1% ↓ -0.4%	0.5%	$24.5M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $12.1K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $24.5M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
AL Arthur Laffer	0.1% ↓ -0.4%	0.5%	$21.2M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $21.2M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
JP Jerome Powell	0.1% ↓ -0.4%	0.5%	$27.9M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $12.7K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $27.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
BT Barron Trump	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$20.9M	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $20.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
CW Christopher Waller	0.1% ↓ -11.5%	2.0%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $3.4M	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $29.2M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢
DM David Malpass	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	2.0%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $14.1K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6.3M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢
DZ David Zervos	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$18.0M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $61.0K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $17.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
HL Howard Lutnick	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$3.0M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $6.8K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $3.0M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
JBB James B. Bullard	0.1% ↓ -0.1%	0.5%	$2.8M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $22.3K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $2.8M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
JY Janet Yellen	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$21.3M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $341	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $21.3M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
KH Kevin Hassett	0.1% ↓ -39.5%	2.0%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5.2M	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $36.1M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢
LK Larry Kudlow	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$10.4M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $10.4M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
LL Larry Lindsey	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$6.1M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $10.4K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6.1M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
LKL Lorie K. Logan	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$2.9M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $15.2K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $2.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
MS Marc Sumerlin	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$4.4M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $23.4K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $4.3M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
MB Michelle Bowman	0.1% ↓ -2.5%	2.0%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $3.5M	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $26.0M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢
PJ Philip Jefferson	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$10.8M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $13.4K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $10.8M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
RR Rick Rieder	0.1% ↓ -4.5%	0.5%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $4.4M	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $35.5M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
RP Ron Paul	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$12.7M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $500	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $12.7M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
SB Scott Bessent	0.1% ↓ -2.5%	2.9%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1.9M	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $38.7M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢
SM Stephen Miran	0.1% ↓ -0.1%	0.5%	$24.1M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1.3M	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $22.8M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —