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Fed Chair Nominee Odds and Predictions

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Updated 46 minutes ago · 1:41 PM PST

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Prediction markets currently have Rick Rieder as the favorite at 37.1% probability of being named, or +170 odds and Kevin Warsh at 31.4%, or +218. Our Fed Chair nominee odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini to show consensus probabilities on who Trump will formally nominate to replace Jerome Powell. Total volume stands at $5.4M in the last 24 hours. It's expected the announcement will come early this month, though markets have set settlement date for Dec. 31, 2026. Our data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing across Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.

Largest Spread

1.67%

Kevin Warsh → View arbs

Consensus Leader

37.1%

Rick Rieder

24H Volume (Share)

$5.4M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Rick Rieder

Vol $584.6K Spread 1.0%

Agg 37.1%

↑ +2.8%

G 37.5%

P 37.3%

K 36.5%

Gemini 37.5%

Vol $1.1K 35–40¢

Polymarket 37.3%

Vol $408.9K 37.2–37.4¢

Kalshi 36.5%

Vol $174.6K 36–37¢

Kevin Warsh

Vol $313.0K Spread 3.5%

Agg 31.4%

↑ +4.8%

K 33.5%

F 33.0%

P 30.5%

G 30.0%

Kalshi 33.5%

Vol $93.8K 33–34¢

ForecastEx 33.0%

Vol $1.5K 33¢

Polymarket 30.5%

Vol $217.6K 30–31¢

Gemini 30.0%

Vol $151 28–32¢

Christopher Waller

Vol $438.5K Spread 1.5%

Agg 13.9%

↓ -3.0%

K 14.5%

G 14.0%

P 13.8%

F 13.0%

Kalshi 14.5%

Vol $57.6K 14–15¢

Gemini 14.0%

Vol $408 12–16¢

Polymarket 13.8%

Vol $380.3K 13.7–13.9¢

ForecastEx 13.0%

Vol $197 13¢

Kevin Hassett

Vol $347.2K Spread 2.5%

Agg 7.5%

↑ +0.5%

F 10.0%

P 7.6%

K 7.5%

G 7.5%

ForecastEx 10.0%

Vol $2 10¢

Polymarket 7.6%

Vol $325.2K 7.5–7.6¢

Kalshi 7.5%

Vol $22.0K 7–8¢

Gemini 7.5%

Vol $8 6–9¢

Scott Bessent

Vol $287.1K Spread 1.7%

Agg 3.7%

↓ -1.7%

P 3.7%

K 3.5%

F 2.0%

Polymarket 3.7%

Vol $276.9K 3.6–3.8¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $10.1K 3–4¢

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $16 2¢

Judy Shelton

Vol $568.8K Spread 2.5%

Agg 3.0%

↑ +0.3%

F 5.0%

P 3.1%

K 2.5%

ForecastEx 5.0%

Vol $0 5¢

Polymarket 3.1%

Vol $546.0K 3–3.1¢

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $22.8K 2–3¢

Stephen Miran

Vol $635.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.9%

↑ +0.4%

P 2.0%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $630.9K 1.9–2¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $4.1K 1–2¢

Michelle Bowman

Vol $616.9K Spread 1.5%

Agg 1.4%

↑ +0.1%

F 2.0%

P 1.5%

K 0.5%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $0 2¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $613.3K 1.4–1.5¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $3.6K 0–1¢

LKL

Lorie K. Logan

Vol $2 Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $0 0.1¢

David Malpass

Vol $91.3K Spread 1.8%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.2%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $0 2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $15 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $91.2K 0.1–0.2¢

Jerome Powell

Vol $341.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $24 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $341.6K 0.1–0.2¢

Larry Kudlow

Vol $2.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $21 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $2.0K 0.1¢

Ron Paul

Vol $2.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $9 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $2.0K 0.1¢

Bill Pulte

Vol $13.4K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $42 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $13.4K 0.1¢

Janet Yellen

Vol $3.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $5 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $3.0K 0.1¢

DTH

Donald Trump (Himself)

Vol $21.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $32 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $21.0K 0.1¢

Howard Lutnick

Vol $27.5K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $34 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $27.5K 0.1¢

JBB

James B. Bullard

Vol $31.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $18 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $31.1K 0.1¢

David Zervos

Vol $105.9K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $42 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $105.9K 0.1¢

Arthur Laffer

Vol $7.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $7.0K 0.1¢

Philip Jefferson

Vol $2.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $2.0K 0.1¢

Marc Sumerlin

Vol $396.6K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $3 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $396.6K 0.1¢

Larry Lindsey

Vol $1.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $1.0K 0.1¢

Barron Trump

Vol $264.1K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $264.1K 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	ForecastEx
RR Rick Rieder	37.1% ↑ +2.8%	1.0%	$584.6K	Kalshi 36.5% 36–37¢ Vol $174.6K	Polymarket 37.3% 37.2–37.4¢ Vol $408.9K	Gemini 37.5% 35–40¢ Vol $1.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KW Kevin Warsh	31.4% ↑ +4.8%	3.5%	$313.0K	Kalshi 33.5% 33–34¢ Vol $93.8K	Polymarket 30.5% 30–31¢ Vol $217.6K	Gemini 30.0% 28–32¢ Vol $151	ForecastEx 33.0% 33¢ Vol $1.5K
CW Christopher Waller	13.9% ↓ -3.0%	1.5%	$438.5K	Kalshi 14.5% 14–15¢ Vol $57.6K	Polymarket 13.8% 13.7–13.9¢ Vol $380.3K	Gemini 14.0% 12–16¢ Vol $408	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $197
KH Kevin Hassett	7.5% ↑ +0.5%	2.5%	$347.2K	Kalshi 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $22.0K	Polymarket 7.6% 7.5–7.6¢ Vol $325.2K	Gemini 7.5% 6–9¢ Vol $8	ForecastEx 10.0% 10¢ Vol $2
SB Scott Bessent	3.7% ↓ -1.7%	1.7%	$287.1K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $10.1K	Polymarket 3.7% 3.6–3.8¢ Vol $276.9K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢ Vol $16
JS Judy Shelton	3.0% ↑ +0.3%	2.5%	$568.8K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $22.8K	Polymarket 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $546.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
SM Stephen Miran	1.9% ↑ +0.4%	0.5%	$635.0K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $4.1K	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $630.9K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MB Michelle Bowman	1.4% ↑ +0.1%	1.5%	$616.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $3.6K	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $613.3K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢ Vol $0
LKL Lorie K. Logan	0.5% ↑ +0.5%	0.5%	$2	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DM David Malpass	0.2% ↓ -0.2%	1.8%	$91.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $15	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $91.2K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢ Vol $0
JP Jerome Powell	0.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$341.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $24	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $341.6K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
LK Larry Kudlow	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$2.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $21	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $2.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RP Ron Paul	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$2.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $9	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $2.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BP Bill Pulte	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$13.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $42	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $13.4K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JY Janet Yellen	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$3.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $3.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DTH Donald Trump (Himself)	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$21.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $32	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $21.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
HL Howard Lutnick	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$27.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $34	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $27.5K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JBB James B. Bullard	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$31.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $18	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $31.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DZ David Zervos	0.1% ↓ -0.1%	0.5%	$105.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $42	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $105.9K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
AL Arthur Laffer	0.1% ↓ -0.4%	0.5%	$7.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $7.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
PJ Philip Jefferson	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$2.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $2.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MS Marc Sumerlin	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$396.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $396.6K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
LL Larry Lindsey	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$1.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BT Barron Trump	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$264.1K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $264.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
KW Kevin Warsh	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 31¢	Sell @ K 33¢	+2.00%	+1.67%	Yes
MB Michelle Bowman	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.4¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
RR Rick Rieder	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 37¢	Sell @ P 37.2¢	+0.20%	-0.17%	No
CW Christopher Waller	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 13.9¢	Sell @ K 14¢	+0.10%	-0.04%	No
JS Judy Shelton	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 3¢	Sell @ P 3¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
LKL Lorie K. Logan	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
LK Larry Kudlow	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
RP Ron Paul	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
BP Bill Pulte	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
JY Janet Yellen	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
DTH Donald Trump (Himself)	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
JBB James B. Bullard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
DZ David Zervos	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
AL Arthur Laffer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
PJ Philip Jefferson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
MS Marc Sumerlin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
LL Larry Lindsey	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
SM Stephen Miran	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2¢	Sell @ P 1.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
DM David Malpass	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
SB Scott Bessent	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 4¢	Sell @ P 3.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
KH Kevin Hassett	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 8¢	Sell @ P 7.5¢	-0.50%	-0.58%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
RR Rick Rieder	DM David Malpass	Polymarket	A 37.30%	B 0.15%	+37.15%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket	A 37.30%	B 0.15%	+37.15%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	MB Michelle Bowman	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 0.50%	+36.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	LKL Lorie K. Logan	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 0.50%	+36.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	DM David Malpass	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 0.50%	+36.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	MB Michelle Bowman	Polymarket	A 37.30%	B 1.45%	+35.85%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	SM Stephen Miran	Polymarket	A 37.30%	B 1.95%	+35.35%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	SM Stephen Miran	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 1.50%	+35.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	JS Judy Shelton	Polymarket	A 37.30%	B 3.05%	+34.25%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	JS Judy Shelton	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 2.50%	+34.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket	A 37.30%	B 3.70%	+33.60%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	MB Michelle Bowman	Kalshi	A 33.50%	B 0.50%	+33.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	LKL Lorie K. Logan	Kalshi	A 33.50%	B 0.50%	+33.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	DM David Malpass	Kalshi	A 33.50%	B 0.50%	+33.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	SB Scott Bessent	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 3.50%	+33.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SM Stephen Miran	Kalshi	A 33.50%	B 1.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JS Judy Shelton	Kalshi	A 33.50%	B 2.50%	+31.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	DM David Malpass	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 0.15%	+30.35%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 0.15%	+30.35%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SB Scott Bessent	Kalshi	A 33.50%	B 3.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KH Kevin Hassett	Gemini	A 37.50%	B 7.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KH Kevin Hassett	Polymarket	A 37.30%	B 7.55%	+29.75%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	MB Michelle Bowman	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 1.45%	+29.05%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KH Kevin Hassett	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 7.50%	+29.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SM Stephen Miran	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 1.95%	+28.55%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JS Judy Shelton	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 3.05%	+27.45%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 3.70%	+26.80%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	KH Kevin Hassett	Kalshi	A 33.50%	B 7.50%	+26.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	CW Christopher Waller	Polymarket	A 37.30%	B 13.80%	+23.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	CW Christopher Waller	Gemini	A 37.50%	B 14.00%	+23.50%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.