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2026 Oscars Odds and Prediction Markets

Author Author Thumbnail Cheryle Shepstone
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Cheryle Shepstone Director of Content
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...
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Editor Author Thumbnail Valerie Cross
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Valerie Cross Editorial Director
Valerie Cross is a reporter, editor, and prediction markets analyst with more than a decade of experience covering legal gaming and emerging financial markets. She joined DeFi Rate in 2026 after reporting on the rise of ...
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Updated: March 9, 2026

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    Oscars weekend is one of the biggest nights in prediction markets outside of politics and sports. Kalshi and Polymarket between them are running dozens of active markets across Best Picture, every acting and directing category, nominations, supporting categories, and even mention markets.

    The volume reflects it. Best Picture has already crossed $13 million across both platforms, with acting categories close behind. If you’re looking for a legal way to get in on the Oscars odds, prediction markets are available in all 50 states through sites like Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts. Most sportsbooks don’t carry Oscars markets at all or its not legal.

    Below we’ve compiled live odds across all major categories, updated every 30 minutes from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. FanDuel Predicts is also running Oscars markets with a $25 no-deposit bonus. We’re working on getting access to the APIs to integrate those.

    Prediction sites with Oscars trading

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    Good bonus, liquidity is lower than Kalshi

    Odds on Best Picture

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    OBA
    One Battle After Another
    Vol $113.6K Spread 1.0%
    Agg -289
    ↓ -0.2%
    P -292
    K -277
    G -277
    Polymarket -292
    Vol $91.5K 74–75¢
    Kalshi -277
    Vol $21.9K 73–74¢
    Gemini -277
    Vol $103 70–77¢
    SI
    Sinners
    Vol $121.5K Spread 0.4%
    Agg +352
    ↑ +0.8%
    K +344
    G +344
    P +352
    Kalshi +344
    Vol $13.0K 22–23¢
    Gemini +344
    Vol $227 19–26¢
    Polymarket +352
    Vol $108.3K 22–22.2¢
    HA
    Hamnet
    Vol $110.7K Spread 1.1%
    Agg +6,776
    ↓ -0.7%
    K +3,900
    G +6,567
    P +6,797
    Kalshi +3,900
    Vol $465 2–3¢
    Gemini +6,567
    Vol $0 3–0¢
    Polymarket +6,797
    Vol $110.2K 1.4–1.5¢
    MS
    Marty Supreme
    Vol $66.3K Spread 0.9%
    Agg +8,583
    ↓ -0.1%
    G +4,900
    K +6,567
    P +8,596
    Gemini +4,900
    Vol $0 4–0¢
    Kalshi +6,567
    Vol $331 1–2¢
    Polymarket +8,596
    Vol $66.0K 1.1–1.2¢
    TI
    Tie
    Vol $1 Spread —
    Agg +19,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $1 0–1¢
    SV
    Sentimental Value
    Vol $68.8K Spread 0.5%
    Agg +22,122
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    P +22,122
    G —
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $20 0–1¢
    Polymarket +22,122
    Vol $68.7K 0.4–0.5¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    FR
    Frankenstein
    Vol $162.6K Spread 0.3%
    Agg +39,900
    ↓ -0.2%
    K +19,900
    P +39,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $3 0–1¢
    Polymarket +39,900
    Vol $162.6K 0.2–0.3¢
    TSA
    The Secret Agent
    Vol $86.0K Spread 0.3%
    Agg +39,900
    ↓ -0.1%
    K +19,900
    P +39,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $10 0–1¢
    Polymarket +39,900
    Vol $86.0K 0.2–0.3¢
    BU
    Bugonia
    Vol $198.9K Spread 0.5%
    Agg +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    K +19,900
    P +66,567
    G —
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $14 0–1¢
    Polymarket +66,567
    Vol $198.9K 0.1–0.2¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    F1
    F1
    Vol $173.0K Spread 0.4%
    Agg +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    K +19,900
    P +66,567
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $0 0–1¢
    Polymarket +66,567
    Vol $173.0K 0.1–0.2¢
    TD
    Train Dreams
    Vol $240.4K Spread 0.4%
    Agg +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    K +19,900
    P +66,567
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $25 0–1¢
    Polymarket +66,567
    Vol $240.4K 0.1–0.2¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketGemini
    OBA
    One Battle After Another
    -289
    ↓ -0.2%
    1.0%
    $113.6K
    Kalshi -277
    73–74¢ Vol $21.9K
    Polymarket -292
    74–75¢ Vol $91.5K
    Gemini -277
    70–77¢ Vol $103
    SI
    Sinners
    +352
    ↑ +0.8%
    0.4%
    $121.5K
    Kalshi +344
    22–23¢ Vol $13.0K
    Polymarket +352
    22–22.2¢ Vol $108.3K
    Gemini +344
    19–26¢ Vol $227
    HA
    Hamnet
    +6,776
    ↓ -0.7%
    1.1%
    $110.7K
    Kalshi +3,900
    2–3¢ Vol $465
    Polymarket +6,797
    1.4–1.5¢ Vol $110.2K
    Gemini +6,567
    3–0¢ Vol $0
    MS
    Marty Supreme
    +8,583
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.9%
    $66.3K
    Kalshi +6,567
    1–2¢ Vol $331
    Polymarket +8,596
    1.1–1.2¢ Vol $66.0K
    Gemini +4,900
    4–0¢ Vol $0
    TI
    Tie
    +19,900
    — +0.0%
    —
    $1
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $1
    Polymarket —
    —
    Gemini —
    —
    SV
    Sentimental Value
    +22,122
    — +0.0%
    0.5%
    $68.8K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $20
    Polymarket +22,122
    0.4–0.5¢ Vol $68.7K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    FR
    Frankenstein
    +39,900
    ↓ -0.2%
    0.3%
    $162.6K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $3
    Polymarket +39,900
    0.2–0.3¢ Vol $162.6K
    Gemini —
    —
    TSA
    The Secret Agent
    +39,900
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.3%
    $86.0K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $10
    Polymarket +39,900
    0.2–0.3¢ Vol $86.0K
    Gemini —
    —
    BU
    Bugonia
    +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.5%
    $198.9K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $14
    Polymarket +66,567
    0.1–0.2¢ Vol $198.9K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    F1
    F1
    +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.4%
    $173.0K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $0
    Polymarket +66,567
    0.1–0.2¢ Vol $173.0K
    Gemini —
    —
    TD
    Train Dreams
    +66,567
    ↓ -0.1%
    0.4%
    $240.4K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $25
    Polymarket +66,567
    0.1–0.2¢ Vol $240.4K
    Gemini —
    —

    Odds on Best Director

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    PTA
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    Vol $38.9K Spread 1.5%
    Agg -998
    ↑ +0.4%
    P -1,076
    K -953
    G -900
    Polymarket -1,076
    Vol $15.3K 91–92¢
    Kalshi -953
    Vol $23.6K 90–91¢
    Gemini -900
    Vol $0 87–93¢
    RC
    Ryan Coogler
    Vol $18.6K Spread 1.1%
    Agg +1,162
    ↓ -0.1%
    G +1,011
    K +1,076
    P +1,174
    Gemini +1,011
    Vol $0 6–12¢
    Kalshi +1,076
    Vol $2.1K 8–9¢
    Polymarket +1,174
    Vol $16.5K 7.8–7.9¢
    CZ
    Chloe Zhao
    Vol $8.2K Spread 1.5%
    Agg +10,765
    ↑ +0.2%
    K +6,567
    P +11,011
    G —
    Kalshi +6,567
    Vol $281 1–2¢
    Polymarket +11,011
    Vol $8.0K 0.8–1¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    TI
    Tie
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg +19,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $0 0–1¢
    JS
    Josh Safdie
    Vol $7.9K Spread 0.8%
    Agg +39,836
    — +0.0%
    G +9,900
    K +19,900
    P +39,900
    Gemini +9,900
    Vol $0 2–0¢
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $13 0–1¢
    Polymarket +39,900
    Vol $7.9K 0.2–0.3¢
    JT
    Joachim Trier
    Vol $5.5K Spread 2.3%
    Agg +49,900
    — +0.0%
    G +3,900
    K +19,900
    P +49,900
    Gemini +3,900
    Vol $0 2–3¢
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $0 0–1¢
    Polymarket +49,900
    Vol $5.5K 0.1–0.3¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketGemini
    PTA
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    -998
    ↑ +0.4%
    1.5%
    $38.9K
    Kalshi -953
    90–91¢ Vol $23.6K
    Polymarket -1,076
    91–92¢ Vol $15.3K
    Gemini -900
    87–93¢ Vol $0
    RC
    Ryan Coogler
    +1,162
    ↓ -0.1%
    1.1%
    $18.6K
    Kalshi +1,076
    8–9¢ Vol $2.1K
    Polymarket +1,174
    7.8–7.9¢ Vol $16.5K
    Gemini +1,011
    6–12¢ Vol $0
    CZ
    Chloe Zhao
    +10,765
    ↑ +0.2%
    1.5%
    $8.2K
    Kalshi +6,567
    1–2¢ Vol $281
    Polymarket +11,011
    0.8–1¢ Vol $8.0K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    TI
    Tie
    +19,900
    — +0.0%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $0
    Polymarket —
    —
    Gemini —
    —
    JS
    Josh Safdie
    +39,836
    — +0.0%
    0.8%
    $7.9K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $13
    Polymarket +39,900
    0.2–0.3¢ Vol $7.9K
    Gemini +9,900
    2–0¢ Vol $0
    JT
    Joachim Trier
    +49,900
    — +0.0%
    2.3%
    $5.5K
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $0
    Polymarket +49,900
    0.1–0.3¢ Vol $5.5K
    Gemini +3,900
    2–3¢ Vol $0

    Odds on Best Supporting Actor

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    SP
    Sean Penn
    Vol $25.0K Spread 1.0%
    Agg -244
    ↑ +1.4%
    P -251
    K -239
    G -239
    Polymarket -251
    Vol $9.8K 71–72¢
    Kalshi -239
    Vol $15.2K 70–71¢
    Gemini -239
    Vol $10 67–74¢
    SS
    Stellan Skarsgard
    Vol $6.9K Spread 0.5%
    Agg +445
    ↓ -1.2%
    P +441
    G +441
    K +456
    Polymarket +441
    Vol $4.5K 18–19¢
    Gemini +441
    Vol $16 15–22¢
    Kalshi +456
    Vol $2.3K 17–19¢
    DL
    Delroy Lindo
    Vol $29.7K Spread 0.5%
    Agg +1,242
    ↓ -1.0%
    K +1,233
    P +1,242
    G +1,329
    Kalshi +1,233
    Vol $2.3K 7–8¢
    Polymarket +1,242
    Vol $27.4K 7.3–7.6¢
    Gemini +1,329
    Vol $0 4–10¢
    BDT
    Benicio del Toro
    Vol $27.2K Spread 2.1%
    Agg +4,666
    ↑ +0.8%
    P +4,662
    K +6,567
    G —
    Polymarket +4,662
    Vol $27.2K 2–2.2¢
    Kalshi +6,567
    Vol $89 1–2¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    JE
    Jacob Elordi
    Vol $4.6K Spread 1.5%
    Agg +10,771
    ↓ -0.2%
    K +6,567
    P +11,011
    G —
    Kalshi +6,567
    Vol $152 1–2¢
    Polymarket +11,011
    Vol $4.4K 0.7–1.1¢
    Gemini —
    Vol $0 0–0¢
    TI
    Tie
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg +19,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $0 0–1¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketGemini
    SP
    Sean Penn
    -244
    ↑ +1.4%
    1.0%
    $25.0K
    Kalshi -239
    70–71¢ Vol $15.2K
    Polymarket -251
    71–72¢ Vol $9.8K
    Gemini -239
    67–74¢ Vol $10
    SS
    Stellan Skarsgard
    +445
    ↓ -1.2%
    0.5%
    $6.9K
    Kalshi +456
    17–19¢ Vol $2.3K
    Polymarket +441
    18–19¢ Vol $4.5K
    Gemini +441
    15–22¢ Vol $16
    DL
    Delroy Lindo
    +1,242
    ↓ -1.0%
    0.5%
    $29.7K
    Kalshi +1,233
    7–8¢ Vol $2.3K
    Polymarket +1,242
    7.3–7.6¢ Vol $27.4K
    Gemini +1,329
    4–10¢ Vol $0
    BDT
    Benicio del Toro
    +4,666
    ↑ +0.8%
    2.1%
    $27.2K
    Kalshi +6,567
    1–2¢ Vol $89
    Polymarket +4,662
    2–2.2¢ Vol $27.2K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    JE
    Jacob Elordi
    +10,771
    ↓ -0.2%
    1.5%
    $4.6K
    Kalshi +6,567
    1–2¢ Vol $152
    Polymarket +11,011
    0.7–1.1¢ Vol $4.4K
    Gemini —
    0–0¢ Vol $0
    TI
    Tie
    +19,900
    — +0.0%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $0
    Polymarket —
    —
    Gemini —
    —

    Odds on Best Actor

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    MBJ
    Michael B. Jordan
    Vol $224.2K Spread 0.1%
    Agg -150
    ↑ +12.7%
    P -150
    K -150
    Polymarket -150
    Vol $145.6K 59.9–60.2¢
    Kalshi -150
    Vol $78.6K 59–61¢
    TC
    Timothee Chalamet
    Vol $108.2K Spread 2.0%
    Agg +216
    ↓ -13.9%
    P +208
    K +228
    Polymarket +208
    Vol $62.6K 32–33¢
    Kalshi +228
    Vol $45.5K 30–31¢
    LD
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Vol $52.0K Spread 0.8%
    Agg +2,576
    ↑ +0.1%
    K +2,122
    P +2,603
    Kalshi +2,122
    Vol $2.4K 4–5¢
    Polymarket +2,603
    Vol $49.6K 3.6–3.8¢
    WM
    Wagner Moura
    Vol $71.6K Spread 1.8%
    Agg +3,499
    ↓ -0.8%
    K +2,122
    P +3,604
    Kalshi +2,122
    Vol $3.1K 4–5¢
    Polymarket +3,604
    Vol $68.5K 2.6–2.8¢
    EH
    Ethan Hawke
    Vol $49.7K Spread 1.5%
    Agg +9,569
    ↑ +0.1%
    K +3,900
    P +9,900
    Kalshi +3,900
    Vol $1.1K 2–3¢
    Polymarket +9,900
    Vol $48.5K 0.9–1.1¢
    TI
    Tie
    Vol $77 Spread —
    Agg +19,900
    — +0.0%
    K +19,900
    Kalshi +19,900
    Vol $77 0–1¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarket
    MBJ
    Michael B. Jordan
    -150
    ↑ +12.7%
    0.1%
    $224.2K
    Kalshi -150
    59–61¢ Vol $78.6K
    Polymarket -150
    59.9–60.2¢ Vol $145.6K
    TC
    Timothee Chalamet
    +216
    ↓ -13.9%
    2.0%
    $108.2K
    Kalshi +228
    30–31¢ Vol $45.5K
    Polymarket +208
    32–33¢ Vol $62.6K
    LD
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    +2,576
    ↑ +0.1%
    0.8%
    $52.0K
    Kalshi +2,122
    4–5¢ Vol $2.4K
    Polymarket +2,603
    3.6–3.8¢ Vol $49.6K
    WM
    Wagner Moura
    +3,499
    ↓ -0.8%
    1.8%
    $71.6K
    Kalshi +2,122
    4–5¢ Vol $3.1K
    Polymarket +3,604
    2.6–2.8¢ Vol $68.5K
    EH
    Ethan Hawke
    +9,569
    ↑ +0.1%
    1.5%
    $49.7K
    Kalshi +3,900
    2–3¢ Vol $1.1K
    Polymarket +9,900
    0.9–1.1¢ Vol $48.5K
    TI
    Tie
    +19,900
    — +0.0%
    —
    $77
    Kalshi +19,900
    0–1¢ Vol $77
    Polymarket —
    —

    Available prop markets

    Who will attend the Oscars?

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    WTC
    Will Timothée Chalamet attend the Oscars
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg -8,991
    — +0.0%
    P -8,991
    Polymarket -8,991
    Vol $0 98.2–99.6¢
    WLD
    Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars
    Vol $199 Spread —
    Agg -4,662
    ↑ +6.7%
    P -4,662
    Polymarket -4,662
    Vol $199 96.7–99.1¢
    WMB
    Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars
    Vol $175 Spread —
    Agg -4,551
    ↓ -1.4%
    P -4,551
    Polymarket -4,551
    Vol $175 96.5–99.2¢
    WKJ
    Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars
    Vol $219 Spread —
    Agg -3,409
    ↓ -1.1%
    P -3,409
    Polymarket -3,409
    Vol $219 96.6–97.7¢
    WES
    Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars
    Vol $29 Spread —
    Agg -2,400
    ↓ -3.4%
    P -2,400
    Polymarket -2,400
    Vol $29 92.6–99.4¢
    KJ
    Kylie Jenner
    Vol $2 Spread —
    Agg -2,122
    — +0.0%
    K -2,122
    Kalshi -2,122
    Vol $2 94–97¢
    LD
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Vol $175 Spread —
    Agg -1,718
    ↓ -2.0%
    K -1,718
    Kalshi -1,718
    Vol $175 92–97¢
    SP
    Sean Penn
    Vol $42 Spread —
    Agg -770
    ↓ -0.5%
    K -770
    Kalshi -770
    Vol $42 87–90¢
    WZA
    Will Zendaya attend the Oscars
    Vol $46 Spread —
    Agg -335
    ↓ -1.5%
    P -335
    Polymarket -335
    Vol $46 71–83¢
    ZE
    Zendaya
    Vol $2.2K Spread —
    Agg -335
    ↓ -2.5%
    K -335
    Kalshi -335
    Vol $2.2K 75–79¢
    WNK
    Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg -300
    — +0.0%
    P -300
    Polymarket -300
    Vol $0 53–97¢
    WMR
    Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars
    Vol $8 Spread —
    Agg -245
    ↓ -16.5%
    P -245
    Polymarket -245
    Vol $8 68–74¢
    MR
    Margot Robbie
    Vol $823 Spread —
    Agg -239
    ↓ -8.5%
    K -239
    Kalshi -239
    Vol $823 69–72¢
    RG
    Ryan Gosling
    Vol $111 Spread —
    Agg -228
    ↓ -2.0%
    K -228
    Kalshi -228
    Vol $111 67–72¢
    HW
    Hudson Williams
    Vol $241 Spread —
    Agg -199
    — +0.0%
    K -199
    Kalshi -199
    Vol $241 64–69¢
    WHW
    Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg -135
    ↓ -7.5%
    P -135
    Polymarket -135
    Vol $0 42–73¢
    CS
    Connor Storrie
    Vol $277 Spread —
    Agg -130
    ↑ +0.5%
    K -130
    Kalshi -130
    Vol $277 54–59¢
    WCS
    Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars
    Vol $22 Spread —
    Agg -120
    ↑ +8.5%
    P -120
    Polymarket -120
    Vol $22 40–69¢
    WSR
    Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars
    Vol $10 Spread —
    Agg -113
    ↑ +0.5%
    P -113
    Polymarket -113
    Vol $10 18–88¢
    WRG
    Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars
    Vol $176 Spread —
    Agg -111
    ↓ -16.5%
    P -111
    Polymarket -111
    Vol $176 30–75¢
    HS
    Hailee Steinfeld
    Vol $492 Spread —
    Agg +194
    ↓ -10.5%
    K +194
    Kalshi +194
    Vol $492 24–44¢
    WTS
    Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars
    Vol $4 Spread —
    Agg +658
    ↑ +0.3%
    P +658
    Polymarket +658
    Vol $4 1.8–24.6¢
    KH
    Kevin Hart
    Vol $36 Spread —
    Agg +700
    ↓ -2.5%
    K +700
    Kalshi +700
    Vol $36 10–15¢
    OJ
    Olivia Jade
    Vol $6 Spread —
    Agg +733
    ↑ +1.5%
    K +733
    Kalshi +733
    Vol $6 8–16¢
    WKH
    Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg +733
    ↓ -1.5%
    P +733
    Polymarket +733
    Vol $0 6–18¢
    TS
    Taylor Swift
    Vol $8 Spread —
    Agg +1,233
    ↓ -0.5%
    K +1,233
    Kalshi +1,233
    Vol $8 5–10¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarket
    WTC
    Will Timothée Chalamet attend the Oscars
    -8,991
    — +0.0%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -8,991
    98.2–99.6¢ Vol $0
    WLD
    Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars
    -4,662
    ↑ +6.7%
    —
    $199
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -4,662
    96.7–99.1¢ Vol $199
    WMB
    Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars
    -4,551
    ↓ -1.4%
    —
    $175
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -4,551
    96.5–99.2¢ Vol $175
    WKJ
    Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars
    -3,409
    ↓ -1.1%
    —
    $219
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -3,409
    96.6–97.7¢ Vol $219
    WES
    Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars
    -2,400
    ↓ -3.4%
    —
    $29
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -2,400
    92.6–99.4¢ Vol $29
    KJ
    Kylie Jenner
    -2,122
    — +0.0%
    —
    $2
    Kalshi -2,122
    94–97¢ Vol $2
    Polymarket —
    —
    LD
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    -1,718
    ↓ -2.0%
    —
    $175
    Kalshi -1,718
    92–97¢ Vol $175
    Polymarket —
    —
    SP
    Sean Penn
    -770
    ↓ -0.5%
    —
    $42
    Kalshi -770
    87–90¢ Vol $42
    Polymarket —
    —
    WZA
    Will Zendaya attend the Oscars
    -335
    ↓ -1.5%
    —
    $46
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -335
    71–83¢ Vol $46
    ZE
    Zendaya
    -335
    ↓ -2.5%
    —
    $2.2K
    Kalshi -335
    75–79¢ Vol $2.2K
    Polymarket —
    —
    WNK
    Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars
    -300
    — +0.0%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -300
    53–97¢ Vol $0
    WMR
    Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars
    -245
    ↓ -16.5%
    —
    $8
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -245
    68–74¢ Vol $8
    MR
    Margot Robbie
    -239
    ↓ -8.5%
    —
    $823
    Kalshi -239
    69–72¢ Vol $823
    Polymarket —
    —
    RG
    Ryan Gosling
    -228
    ↓ -2.0%
    —
    $111
    Kalshi -228
    67–72¢ Vol $111
    Polymarket —
    —
    HW
    Hudson Williams
    -199
    — +0.0%
    —
    $241
    Kalshi -199
    64–69¢ Vol $241
    Polymarket —
    —
    WHW
    Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars
    -135
    ↓ -7.5%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -135
    42–73¢ Vol $0
    CS
    Connor Storrie
    -130
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $277
    Kalshi -130
    54–59¢ Vol $277
    Polymarket —
    —
    WCS
    Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars
    -120
    ↑ +8.5%
    —
    $22
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -120
    40–69¢ Vol $22
    WSR
    Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars
    -113
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $10
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -113
    18–88¢ Vol $10
    WRG
    Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars
    -111
    ↓ -16.5%
    —
    $176
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket -111
    30–75¢ Vol $176
    HS
    Hailee Steinfeld
    +194
    ↓ -10.5%
    —
    $492
    Kalshi +194
    24–44¢ Vol $492
    Polymarket —
    —
    WTS
    Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars
    +658
    ↑ +0.3%
    —
    $4
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket +658
    1.8–24.6¢ Vol $4
    KH
    Kevin Hart
    +700
    ↓ -2.5%
    —
    $36
    Kalshi +700
    10–15¢ Vol $36
    Polymarket —
    —
    OJ
    Olivia Jade
    +733
    ↑ +1.5%
    —
    $6
    Kalshi +733
    8–16¢ Vol $6
    Polymarket —
    —
    WKH
    Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars
    +733
    ↓ -1.5%
    —
    $0
    Kalshi —
    —
    Polymarket +733
    6–18¢ Vol $0
    TS
    Taylor Swift
    +1,233
    ↓ -0.5%
    —
    $8
    Kalshi +1,233
    5–10¢ Vol $8
    Polymarket —
    —

    What will the host say at the Oscars

    Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

    Sort:
    MO
    "Mom"
    Vol $292 Spread —
    Agg 93.0%
    — +0.0%
    P 93.0%
    Polymarket 93.0%
    Vol $292 92–94¢
    NE
    "Netflix"
    Vol $10 Spread —
    Agg 88.0%
    ↑ +0.5%
    P 88.0%
    Polymarket 88.0%
    Vol $10 82–94¢
    PE
    "Peace"
    Vol $25 Spread —
    Agg 85.5%
    ↑ +0.5%
    P 85.5%
    Polymarket 85.5%
    Vol $25 81–90¢
    AOA
    "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"
    Vol $30 Spread —
    Agg 84.0%
    — +0.0%
    P 84.0%
    Polymarket 84.0%
    Vol $30 79–89¢
    PR
    "President"
    Vol $297 Spread —
    Agg 83.5%
    ↓ -0.5%
    P 83.5%
    Polymarket 83.5%
    Vol $297 77–90¢
    LE
    "Leo"
    Vol $83 Spread —
    Agg 69.5%
    ↑ +3.0%
    P 69.5%
    Polymarket 69.5%
    Vol $83 60–79¢
    CH
    "Chalamet"
    Vol $55 Spread —
    Agg 69.0%
    ↓ -3.0%
    P 69.0%
    Polymarket 69.0%
    Vol $55 65–73¢
    IOI
    "Iran" or "Iranian"
    Vol $129 Spread —
    Agg 69.0%
    ↑ +1.0%
    P 69.0%
    Polymarket 69.0%
    Vol $129 68–70¢
    PA
    "Palestine"
    Vol $12 Spread —
    Agg 69.0%
    ↑ +7.0%
    P 69.0%
    Polymarket 69.0%
    Vol $12 64–74¢
    AL
    "Alien"
    Vol $9 Spread —
    Agg 65.0%
    ↑ +24.0%
    P 65.0%
    Polymarket 65.0%
    Vol $9 60–70¢
    ME
    "Middle East"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 65.0%
    ↑ +2.5%
    P 65.0%
    Polymarket 65.0%
    Vol $0 58–72¢
    UK
    "Ukraine"
    Vol $109 Spread —
    Agg 65.0%
    ↑ +17.5%
    P 65.0%
    Polymarket 65.0%
    Vol $109 54–76¢
    KY
    "Kylie"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 62.5%
    ↑ +15.0%
    P 62.5%
    Polymarket 62.5%
    Vol $0 51–74¢
    TR
    "Trump"
    Vol $440 Spread —
    Agg 58.5%
    ↑ +7.5%
    P 58.5%
    Polymarket 58.5%
    Vol $440 54–63¢
    EP
    "Epstein"
    Vol $1.1K Spread —
    Agg 55.0%
    ↑ +2.5%
    P 55.0%
    Polymarket 55.0%
    Vol $1.1K 50–60¢
    HO
    "Hottest"
    Vol $43 Spread —
    Agg 53.0%
    ↑ +11.0%
    P 53.0%
    Polymarket 53.0%
    Vol $43 45–61¢
    AOC
    "Anthropic" or "Claude"
    Vol $26 Spread —
    Agg 50.0%
    ↑ +11.5%
    P 50.0%
    Polymarket 50.0%
    Vol $26 41–59¢
    SE
    "Sex"
    Vol $2 Spread —
    Agg 48.5%
    ↑ +0.5%
    P 48.5%
    Polymarket 48.5%
    Vol $2 31–66¢
    WSO
    "Will Smith" or "Punch"
    Vol $52 Spread —
    Agg 47.5%
    ↑ +7.5%
    P 47.5%
    Polymarket 47.5%
    Vol $52 25–70¢
    SH
    "Shame"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 45.0%
    ↓ -1.5%
    P 45.0%
    Polymarket 45.0%
    Vol $0 15–75¢
    EL
    "Ellison"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 42.0%
    ↑ +0.5%
    P 42.0%
    Polymarket 42.0%
    Vol $0 22–62¢
    EL
    "Elon"
    Vol $0 Spread —
    Agg 37.5%
    — +0.0%
    P 37.5%
    Polymarket 37.5%
    Vol $0 17–58¢
    DB
    "Dream Big"
    Vol $54 Spread —
    Agg 35.5%
    ↓ -6.5%
    P 35.5%
    Polymarket 35.5%
    Vol $54 24–47¢
    IOO
    "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice"
    Vol $43 Spread —
    Agg 35.0%
    ↓ -8.5%
    P 35.0%
    Polymarket 35.0%
    Vol $43 12–58¢
    GR
    "Greenland"
    Vol $14 Spread —
    Agg 34.0%
    ↓ -8.0%
    P 34.0%
    Polymarket 34.0%
    Vol $14 9–59¢
    WH
    "White House"
    Vol $10 Spread —
    Agg 30.0%
    ↓ -7.0%
    P 30.0%
    Polymarket 30.0%
    Vol $10 10–50¢
    PO
    "Polymarket"
    Vol $274 Spread —
    Agg 22.5%
    ↓ -7.5%
    P 22.5%
    Polymarket 22.5%
    Vol $274 16–29¢
    CK
    "Charlie Kirk"
    Vol $39 Spread —
    Agg 12.0%
    ↓ -1.0%
    P 12.0%
    Polymarket 12.0%
    Vol $39 8–16¢
    ZOZ
    "Zionist" or "Zionism"
    Vol $63 Spread —
    Agg 7.5%
    ↓ -1.5%
    P 7.5%
    Polymarket 7.5%
    Vol $63 6–9¢
    OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumePolymarket
    MO
    "Mom"
    93.0%
    — +0.0%
    —
    $292
    Polymarket 93.0%
    92–94¢ Vol $292
    NE
    "Netflix"
    88.0%
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $10
    Polymarket 88.0%
    82–94¢ Vol $10
    PE
    "Peace"
    85.5%
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $25
    Polymarket 85.5%
    81–90¢ Vol $25
    AOA
    "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"
    84.0%
    — +0.0%
    —
    $30
    Polymarket 84.0%
    79–89¢ Vol $30
    PR
    "President"
    83.5%
    ↓ -0.5%
    —
    $297
    Polymarket 83.5%
    77–90¢ Vol $297
    LE
    "Leo"
    69.5%
    ↑ +3.0%
    —
    $83
    Polymarket 69.5%
    60–79¢ Vol $83
    CH
    "Chalamet"
    69.0%
    ↓ -3.0%
    —
    $55
    Polymarket 69.0%
    65–73¢ Vol $55
    IOI
    "Iran" or "Iranian"
    69.0%
    ↑ +1.0%
    —
    $129
    Polymarket 69.0%
    68–70¢ Vol $129
    PA
    "Palestine"
    69.0%
    ↑ +7.0%
    —
    $12
    Polymarket 69.0%
    64–74¢ Vol $12
    AL
    "Alien"
    65.0%
    ↑ +24.0%
    —
    $9
    Polymarket 65.0%
    60–70¢ Vol $9
    ME
    "Middle East"
    65.0%
    ↑ +2.5%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 65.0%
    58–72¢ Vol $0
    UK
    "Ukraine"
    65.0%
    ↑ +17.5%
    —
    $109
    Polymarket 65.0%
    54–76¢ Vol $109
    KY
    "Kylie"
    62.5%
    ↑ +15.0%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 62.5%
    51–74¢ Vol $0
    TR
    "Trump"
    58.5%
    ↑ +7.5%
    —
    $440
    Polymarket 58.5%
    54–63¢ Vol $440
    EP
    "Epstein"
    55.0%
    ↑ +2.5%
    —
    $1.1K
    Polymarket 55.0%
    50–60¢ Vol $1.1K
    HO
    "Hottest"
    53.0%
    ↑ +11.0%
    —
    $43
    Polymarket 53.0%
    45–61¢ Vol $43
    AOC
    "Anthropic" or "Claude"
    50.0%
    ↑ +11.5%
    —
    $26
    Polymarket 50.0%
    41–59¢ Vol $26
    SE
    "Sex"
    48.5%
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $2
    Polymarket 48.5%
    31–66¢ Vol $2
    WSO
    "Will Smith" or "Punch"
    47.5%
    ↑ +7.5%
    —
    $52
    Polymarket 47.5%
    25–70¢ Vol $52
    SH
    "Shame"
    45.0%
    ↓ -1.5%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 45.0%
    15–75¢ Vol $0
    EL
    "Ellison"
    42.0%
    ↑ +0.5%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 42.0%
    22–62¢ Vol $0
    EL
    "Elon"
    37.5%
    — +0.0%
    —
    $0
    Polymarket 37.5%
    17–58¢ Vol $0
    DB
    "Dream Big"
    35.5%
    ↓ -6.5%
    —
    $54
    Polymarket 35.5%
    24–47¢ Vol $54
    IOO
    "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice"
    35.0%
    ↓ -8.5%
    —
    $43
    Polymarket 35.0%
    12–58¢ Vol $43
    GR
    "Greenland"
    34.0%
    ↓ -8.0%
    —
    $14
    Polymarket 34.0%
    9–59¢ Vol $14
    WH
    "White House"
    30.0%
    ↓ -7.0%
    —
    $10
    Polymarket 30.0%
    10–50¢ Vol $10
    PO
    "Polymarket"
    22.5%
    ↓ -7.5%
    —
    $274
    Polymarket 22.5%
    16–29¢ Vol $274
    CK
    "Charlie Kirk"
    12.0%
    ↓ -1.0%
    —
    $39
    Polymarket 12.0%
    8–16¢ Vol $39
    ZOZ
    "Zionist" or "Zionism"
    7.5%
    ↓ -1.5%
    —
    $63
    Polymarket 7.5%
    6–9¢ Vol $63

    Methodology & Data Mapping

    How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

    Aggregation Method

    Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

    Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

    Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

    Data Sources & Cadence

    Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

    Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

    Outcome Mapping

    Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

    Spread & Liquidity

    Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

    Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

    Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.