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Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 25 minutes ago · 7:40 AM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $75,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 100.0% implied probability ({{agg.rank1.odds_american}} aggregated odds). The $75,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $281.1K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $1.6K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $276.8K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing. We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

2.13%

$200,000 → View arbs

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$75,000 +32.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$281.1K

Momentum Leader

+46.5%

$65,000 YTD change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +32.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$65,000

Vol $0 Spread 5.0%

Agg 97.5%

↑ +46.5%

P 100.0%

F 95.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

ForecastEx 95.0%

Vol $0 95¢

$55,000

Vol $4.4K Spread —

Agg 70.0%

↑ +35.5%

P 70.0%

Polymarket 70.0%

Vol $4.4K 69–71¢

$45,000

Vol $5.3K Spread —

Agg 45.5%

↑ +24.5%

P 45.5%

Polymarket 45.5%

Vol $5.3K 45–46¢

$100,000

Vol $3.4K Spread 3.5%

Agg 38.3%

↓ -46.2%

P 39.5%

K 36.5%

F 36.0%

Polymarket 39.5%

Vol $2.1K 39–40¢

Kalshi 36.5%

Vol $806 36–37¢

ForecastEx 36.0%

Vol $480 36¢

$110,000

Vol $2.2K Spread 7.0%

Agg 25.9%

↓ -38.1%

K 30.0%

P 25.0%

F 23.0%

Kalshi 30.0%

Vol $476 26–34¢

Polymarket 25.0%

Vol $1.5K 24–26¢

ForecastEx 23.0%

Vol $191 23¢

$35,000

Vol $910 Spread —

Agg 25.5%

↑ +12.0%

P 25.5%

Polymarket 25.5%

Vol $910 25–26¢

$120,000

Vol $514 Spread 5.5%

Agg 24.3%

↓ -23.7%

F 27.0%

K 23.0%

P 21.5%

ForecastEx 27.0%

Vol $226 27¢

Kalshi 23.0%

Vol $122 21–25¢

Polymarket 21.5%

Vol $166 21–22¢

$25,000

Vol $449 Spread —

Agg 14.5%

↑ +7.0%

P 14.5%

Polymarket 14.5%

Vol $449 13–16¢

$130,000

Vol $530 Spread 7.5%

Agg 11.6%

↓ -26.9%

K 17.5%

P 13.5%

F 10.0%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $95 16–19¢

Polymarket 13.5%

Vol $45 13–14¢

ForecastEx 10.0%

Vol $390 10¢

$140,000

Vol $53.9K Spread 4.5%

Agg 10.5%

↓ -17.5%

F 15.0%

K 13.0%

P 10.5%

ForecastEx 15.0%

Vol $135 15¢

Kalshi 13.0%

Vol $36 12–14¢

Polymarket 10.5%

Vol $53.7K 10–11¢

$150,000

Vol $1.3K Spread 4.5%

Agg 9.1%

↓ -12.9%

F 13.0%

K 11.5%

P 8.5%

ForecastEx 13.0%

Vol $130 13¢

Kalshi 11.5%

Vol $49 10–13¢

Polymarket 8.5%

Vol $1.1K 8–9¢

$160,000

Vol $1.8K Spread —

Agg 7.5%

↓ -10.0%

P 7.5%

Polymarket 7.5%

Vol $1.8K 7–8¢

$170,000

Vol $40 Spread —

Agg 7.5%

↓ -5.5%

P 7.5%

Polymarket 7.5%

Vol $40 7–8¢

$15,000

Vol $91.3K Spread —

Agg 6.8%

↑ +1.8%

P 6.8%

Polymarket 6.8%

Vol $91.3K 6.7–6.8¢

$180,000

Vol $77 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -4.0%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $77 6–7¢

$190,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -2.5%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $0 6–7¢

$200,000

Vol $9.7K Spread 2.7%

Agg 4.8%

↓ -3.7%

K 7.5%

F 6.0%

P 4.8%

Kalshi 7.5%

Vol $21 7–8¢

ForecastEx 6.0%

Vol $1 6¢

Polymarket 4.8%

Vol $9.7K 4.7–4.8¢

$250,000

Vol $104.2K Spread —

Agg 4.4%

↓ -0.3%

P 4.4%

Polymarket 4.4%

Vol $104.2K 4.3–4.4¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
70 $75,000	100.0% ↑ +32.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
60 $65,000	97.5% ↑ +46.5%	5.0%	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 95.0% 95¢ Vol $0
50 $55,000	70.0% ↑ +35.5%	—	$4.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 70.0% 69–71¢ Vol $4.4K	ForecastEx — —
40 $45,000	45.5% ↑ +24.5%	—	$5.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 45.5% 45–46¢ Vol $5.3K	ForecastEx — —
10 $100,000	38.3% ↓ -46.2%	3.5%	$3.4K	Kalshi 36.5% 36–37¢ Vol $806	Polymarket 39.5% 39–40¢ Vol $2.1K	ForecastEx 36.0% 36¢ Vol $480
10 $110,000	25.9% ↓ -38.1%	7.0%	$2.2K	Kalshi 30.0% 26–34¢ Vol $476	Polymarket 25.0% 24–26¢ Vol $1.5K	ForecastEx 23.0% 23¢ Vol $191
30 $35,000	25.5% ↑ +12.0%	—	$910	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $910	ForecastEx — —
10 $120,000	24.3% ↓ -23.7%	5.5%	$514	Kalshi 23.0% 21–25¢ Vol $122	Polymarket 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $166	ForecastEx 27.0% 27¢ Vol $226
20 $25,000	14.5% ↑ +7.0%	—	$449	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 14.5% 13–16¢ Vol $449	ForecastEx — —
10 $130,000	11.6% ↓ -26.9%	7.5%	$530	Kalshi 17.5% 16–19¢ Vol $95	Polymarket 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $45	ForecastEx 10.0% 10¢ Vol $390
10 $140,000	10.5% ↓ -17.5%	4.5%	$53.9K	Kalshi 13.0% 12–14¢ Vol $36	Polymarket 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $53.7K	ForecastEx 15.0% 15¢ Vol $135
10 $150,000	9.1% ↓ -12.9%	4.5%	$1.3K	Kalshi 11.5% 10–13¢ Vol $49	Polymarket 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $1.1K	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $130
10 $160,000	7.5% ↓ -10.0%	—	$1.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $1.8K	ForecastEx — —
10 $170,000	7.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$40	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $40	ForecastEx — —
10 $15,000	6.8% ↑ +1.8%	—	$91.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.8% 6.7–6.8¢ Vol $91.3K	ForecastEx — —
10 $180,000	6.5% ↓ -4.0%	—	$77	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $77	ForecastEx — —
10 $190,000	6.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
20 $200,000	4.8% ↓ -3.7%	2.7%	$9.7K	Kalshi 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $21	Polymarket 4.8% 4.7–4.8¢ Vol $9.7K	ForecastEx 6.0% 6¢ Vol $1
20 $250,000	4.4% ↓ -0.3%	—	$104.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.4% 4.3–4.4¢ Vol $104.2K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.8¢	Sell @ K 7¢	+2.20%	+2.13%	Yes
10 $100,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 37¢	Sell @ P 39¢	+2.00%	+1.63%	Yes
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 14¢	Sell @ K 16¢	+2.00%	+1.84%	Yes
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 9¢	Sell @ K 10¢	+1.00%	+0.90%	No
10 $140,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 11¢	Sell @ K 12¢	+1.00%	+0.88%	No
10 $110,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 26¢	Sell @ K 26¢	+0.00%	-0.26%	No
10 $120,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 22¢	Sell @ K 21¢	-1.00%	-1.21%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 13.5%	+86.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 13.5%	+86.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 14.5%	+85.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 14.5%	+85.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.5%	+78.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.5%	+78.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.0%	+75.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.0%	+75.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 39.5%	+60.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 39.5%	+60.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 70.0%	B 13.5%	+56.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 70.0%	B 14.5%	+55.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 45.5%	+54.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 45.5%	+54.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 70.0%	B 21.5%	+48.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 70.0%	B 25.0%	+45.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 70.0%	B 25.5%	+44.50%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 45.5%	B 13.5%	+32.00%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 45.5%	B 14.5%	+31.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 70.0%	B 39.5%	+30.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 70.0%	+30.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 70.0%	+30.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 36.5%	B 7.5%	+29.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 39.5%	B 13.5%	+26.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 36.5%	B 11.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 39.5%	B 14.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 70.0%	B 45.5%	+24.50%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 45.5%	B 21.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.