Team USA will aim to make a winning start to their 2026 World Cup campaign when they face Paraguay in Los Angeles on Saturday.
Traders give the USMNT a 48% chance of winning the game, but they will need to break down a stout Paraguay defense. A draw (tie) is priced at 28% on Kalshi and 30% on Polymarket, while Paraguay trades at 23-25%.
Can the USMNT’s forwards break down Paraguay’s defense?
Christian Pulisic has played a starring role for the USA since making his debut in 2016. He has scored 33 goals in 86 games for his country over the past decade, leading the USA to three CONCACAF Nations League titles.
However, Captain America is coming off an underwhelming season for AC Milan. Pulisic scored nine times, but he ended the season on a 21-game goal drought, which is concerning.
He broke that drought by scoring in the USMNT’s 3-2 friendly win against Senegal on May 31, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be firing on all cylinders at the World Cup. If not, fellow forwards like Folarin Balogun and Malik Tillman will need to step up.
Balogun scored 22 goals for club and country in the 2025/26 season, and he’s likely to lead the line for the USMNT at this tournament. Tillman, Ricardo Pepi, and Timothy Weah provide additional firepower, but they’ll need to be at their best to breach this robust Paraguayan defense.
Alderete and Gómez star for Paraguay
Paraguay conceded just 10 goals in 18 games during the South American World Cup qualifying campaign. La Albirroja’s best result was a 1-0 win against a Brazil team featuring world-class forwards like Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo.
They also battled to an impressive 2-1 victory over Argentina, the reigning world champion. Lautaro Martínez made it 1-0 to Argentina in the 12th minute, but goals from Antonio Sanabria and Omar Alderete turned things around for Paraguay.
The defense was up against Martínez, Lionel Messi, and Julián Álvarez – three of the best forwards in the world – that day, so they did well to concede just a single goal.
Paraguay played three friendlies in 2026: a 1-0 win against Greece, a 2-1 loss to Morocco, and a 4-0 victory over Nicaragua. It is No. 40 in the FIFA world rankings, 23 places below the USA, but the squad looks strong. Alderete and Gustavo Gómez form a strong defensive duo, while the midfield is full of tenacious, tactically astute players.
La Albirroja lacks a world-class forward, but Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso are pretty dangerous in attack, so the USMNT’s full-backs will be busy on Saturday.
USMNT the favorite across Kalshi and Polymarket
Kalshi traders gave the USA a 51% chance of beating Paraguay a couple of days ago, but the price has now dipped to 48%. If you think the USMNT will fail to beat Paraguay (lose or tie), you can buy “No” contracts at 53¢.
Polymarket traders assigned the USMNT a 67% chance of beating Paraguay after the group stage draw in August 2025. They’ve grown increasingly bearish in the ensuing months, so the USA is also trading at 48% with Polymarket to win this game.
Paraguay is priced at 25% with Polymarket, compared to 23% at Kalshi. That’s a significant spread, so it’s worth visiting Polymarket if you think La Albirroja can pull off an upset.
If you expect a heavy win for the USA, you can buy “Yes” contracts at 23¢ on them to cover a 1.5-goal spread at Kalshi or Polymarket. That means the USMNT would need to win by a margin of at least 2 goals.
Contracts settle at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t, so you’d earn 77¢ on each contract if Team USA cruised to a comfortable victory.
Markets giving a 61% chance the game is under 2.5 goals
The total goals market has proved popular at Polymarket, with more than $160,000 in trading volume. Over 2.5 goals is currently trading at 40¢, while under 2.5 goals is trading at 61¢.
It’s easy to see why traders expect a tight, low-scoring affair. Paraguay’s games averaged just 1.33 goals during its qualifying campaign. Fourteen of La Albirroja’s 18 matches saw under 2.5 goals, so this is unlikely to be a high-scoring thriller.
If you want to push it further, under 1.5 goals has a 34% chance of landing in this game, according to Polymarket traders.
The exact score markets also point to a low-scoring game. The most likely final score is 1-0 to the USA, according to traders, followed by a 1-1 draw, a 2-0 win for the USA, and a 0-0 draw.
Prop menu expanding, with first team to score, shots on target and saves
You’ll find a long list of props on this game at the leading prediction sites. Kalshi will let you predict whether a player will score, assist, or score multiple goals. The site is also offering markets on total corners, team corners, the first team to score, or whether both teams will score.
There are even more props at Polymarket, which also offers markets on how many shots each player will attempt. DraftKings Predictions has an even deeper menu of props, covering shots on target, saves, and cards.
Referee Wilton Sampaio showed three red cards in Mexico’s 2-0 win against South Africa on Thursday, and that could set the tone for the rest of the tournament. That’s remarkable when you consider that only four red cards were shown during the entire 2022 World Cup.
DraftKings Predictions is offering +900 (10%) on various players being sent off in this game. This game will be refereed by Danny Makkelie, who has only issued approximately 0.1 red cards per game during his career.
