Prediction Markets 2028 Republican VP Nominee

2028 Republican VP Nominee Odds & Predictions

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Updated 5 minutes ago · 6:09 PM PDT

2028 US President Odds Republican Nominee for President

Prediction markets have J.D. Vance as the favorite for 2028 Republican VP nominee race, with a 31.5% probability or, +217 odds. Joe Kent is coming in at second with 30.0% (+233), while Marco Rubio has a 27.0% chance. Total volume for the 2028 Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $37.5K in the last 30 days with $33.6K on Kalshi and $3.9K on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and OG to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

5.02%

J.D. Vance → View arbs

Consensus Leader

31.5%

J.D. Vance +1.5%

30D Volume (Share)

$37.5K

Momentum Leader

+4.5%

Joe Kent 30D change

List of 2028 Republican VP Nominee Considerations

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $5.6K Spread 24.5%

Agg 31.5%

↑ +1.5%

P 31.5%

K 7.1%

G 7.0%

Joe Kent

Vol $102 Spread —

Agg 30.0%

↑ +4.5%

P 30.0%

Polymarket 30.0%

Vol $102 1–59¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $5.2K Spread 8.0%

Agg 27.0%

— +0.0%

O 32.0%

K 27.0%

G 24.5%

P 24.0%

OG 32.0%

32¢

Tom Brady

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 24.0%

— +0.0%

P 24.0%

Polymarket 24.0%

Vol $112 1–47¢

Rand Paul

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 23.5%

↓ -4.0%

P 23.5%

Polymarket 23.5%

Vol $112 1–46¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $102 Spread —

Agg 22.5%

— +0.0%

P 22.5%

Polymarket 22.5%

Vol $102 1–44¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 21.5%

— +0.0%

P 21.5%

Polymarket 21.5%

Vol $112 1–42¢

Donald Trump

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 20.0%

↓ -0.5%

P 20.0%

Polymarket 20.0%

Vol $112 1–39¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 17.5%

— +0.0%

P 17.5%

Polymarket 17.5%

Vol $112 1–34¢

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 16.5%

↓ -9.0%

P 16.5%

Polymarket 16.5%

Vol $112 1–32¢

Elise Stefanik

Vol $527 Spread 31.6%

Agg 15.5%

↓ -20.0%

P 34.6%

O 9.0%

K 3.0%

Polymarket 34.6%

Vol $98 1.1–68.1¢

OG 9.0%

9¢

Kalshi 3.0%

Vol $428 2–4¢

Eric Trump

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↓ -0.5%

P 15.5%

Polymarket 15.5%

Vol $112 1–30¢

Mike Pence

Vol $109 Spread —

Agg 15.0%

— +0.0%

P 15.0%

Polymarket 15.0%

Vol $109 1–29¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $545 Spread 20.2%

Agg 14.0%

↓ -8.3%

P 25.5%

O 11.0%

K 5.4%

Polymarket 25.5%

Vol $112 1–50¢

OG 11.0%

11¢

Kalshi 5.4%

Vol $433 5–5.7¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $215 Spread 31.6%

Agg 13.8%

↓ -9.2%

P 33.0%

O 7.0%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 33.0%

Vol $102 1–65¢

OG 7.0%

7¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $113 1–1.9¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 13.5%

— +0.0%

P 13.5%

Polymarket 13.5%

Vol $112 1–26¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $959 Spread 28.5%

Agg 12.8%

↓ -14.7%

P 30.0%

O 7.0%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 30.0%

Vol $112 1–59¢

OG 7.0%

7¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $847 1.2–1.8¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $230 Spread 17.7%

Agg 12.5%

↓ -10.6%

P 22.0%

O 11.0%

K 4.4%

Polymarket 22.0%

Vol $109 1–43¢

OG 11.0%

11¢

Kalshi 4.4%

Vol $121 3–5.7¢

Pete Hegseth

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 12.0%

↓ -2.0%

P 12.0%

Polymarket 12.0%

Vol $112 24¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 11.5%

↓ -1.0%

P 11.5%

Polymarket 11.5%

Vol $112 1–22¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $637 Spread 23.0%

Agg 11.0%

↓ -16.5%

P 24.5%

O 7.0%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 24.5%

Vol $112 1–48¢

OG 7.0%

7¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $525 1–2¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 10.5%

↓ -1.5%

P 10.5%

Polymarket 10.5%

Vol $112 1–20¢

John Thune

Vol $113 Spread 24.1%

Agg 10.4%

↓ -29.9%

P 24.7%

O 6.0%

K 0.6%

Polymarket 24.7%

Vol $101 1.1–48.2¢

OG 6.0%

6¢

Kalshi 0.6%

Vol $12 0.3–0.9¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $1.4K Spread 16.4%

Agg 9.9%

↓ -10.1%

P 19.0%

O 8.0%

K 2.6%

Polymarket 19.0%

Vol $112 1–37¢

OG 8.0%

8¢

Kalshi 2.6%

Vol $1.3K 2.2–3¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $112 Spread —

Agg 9.0%

↓ -3.5%

P 9.0%

Polymarket 9.0%

Vol $112 1–17¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $2.6K Spread 16.3%

Agg 8.7%

↓ -9.6%

P 17.8%

O 7.0%

K 1.4%

Polymarket 17.8%

Vol $113 2.3–33.2¢

OG 7.0%

7¢

Kalshi 1.4%

Vol $2.5K 1–1.8¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $960 Spread 5.7%

Agg 6.4%

↑ +2.1%

O 10.0%

G 5.0%

K 4.3%

OG 10.0%

10¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $5.2K Spread 10.1%

Agg 6.3%

↓ -7.2%

P 11.0%

O 7.0%

K 1.0%

Polymarket 11.0%

Vol $112 1–21¢

OG 7.0%

7¢

Kalshi 1.0%

Vol $5.0K 0.3–1.6¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $2.5K Spread 13.5%

Agg 6.2%

↓ -17.8%

P 15.0%

O 7.0%

G 1.5%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 15.0%

Vol $112 1–29¢

OG 7.0%

7¢

Erika Kirk

Vol $6.3K Spread 14.0%

Agg 5.5%

↓ -1.1%

P 19.5%

O 11.0%

K 5.5%

Polymarket 19.5%

Vol $112 3–36¢

OG 11.0%

11¢

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $6.2K 5–6¢

Elon Musk

Vol $113 Spread 7.9%

Agg 4.1%

↓ -15.1%

P 8.0%

K 0.2%

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $408 Spread 6.1%

Agg 3.9%

↓ -3.1%

O 10.0%

K 3.9%

OG 10.0%

10¢

Kalshi 3.9%

Vol $408 3–4.8¢

Byron Donalds

Vol $440 Spread 26.5%

Agg 3.5%

↓ -21.0%

P 30.0%

O 9.0%

K 3.5%

Polymarket 30.0%

Vol $112 1–59¢

OG 9.0%

9¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $328 3–4¢

Katie Britt

Vol $409 Spread 22.5%

Agg 2.6%

↓ -24.5%

P 25.0%

O 9.0%

K 2.6%

Polymarket 25.0%

Vol $112 1–49¢

OG 9.0%

9¢

Kalshi 2.6%

Vol $297 2.1–3¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $1.3K Spread 12.3%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -12.8%

P 14.5%

O 8.0%

G 2.5%

K 2.3%

Polymarket 14.5%

Vol $112 1–28¢

OG 8.0%

8¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $114 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

P 1.5%

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $114 1–2¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $112 Spread 17.3%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -17.8%

P 17.5%

O 6.0%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 17.5%

Vol $112 1–34¢

OG 6.0%

6¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $0 0.1–0.2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	OG
JDV J.D. Vance	31.5% ↑ +1.5%	24.5%	$5.6K	Kalshi 7.1% 6.3–7.9¢ Vol $5.4K	Polymarket 31.5% 13–50¢ Vol $145	Gemini 7.0% 5–9¢	OG — —
JK Joe Kent	30.0% ↑ +4.5%	—	$102	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 30.0% 1–59¢ Vol $102	Gemini — —	OG — —
MR Marco Rubio	27.0% — +0.0%	8.0%	$5.2K	Kalshi 27.0% 26–28¢ Vol $5.1K	Polymarket 24.0% 9–39¢ Vol $107	Gemini 24.5% 22–27¢	OG 32.0% 32¢
TB Tom Brady	24.0% — +0.0%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 24.0% 1–47¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
RP Rand Paul	23.5% ↓ -4.0%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 23.5% 1–46¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
KK Kim Kardashian	22.5% — +0.0%	—	$102	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 22.5% 1–44¢ Vol $102	Gemini — —	OG — —
TC Tucker Carlson	21.5% — +0.0%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 21.5% 1–42¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
DT Donald Trump	20.0% ↓ -0.5%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 20.0% 1–39¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
TM Thomas Massie	17.5% — +0.0%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 17.5% 1–34¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	16.5% ↓ -9.0%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 16.5% 1–32¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
ES Elise Stefanik	15.5% ↓ -20.0%	31.6%	$527	Kalshi 3.0% 2–4¢ Vol $428	Polymarket 34.6% 1.1–68.1¢ Vol $98	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
ET Eric Trump	15.5% ↓ -0.5%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 15.5% 1–30¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
MP Mike Pence	15.0% — +0.0%	—	$109	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 15.0% 1–29¢ Vol $109	Gemini — —	OG — —
GY Glenn Youngkin	14.0% ↓ -8.3%	20.2%	$545	Kalshi 5.4% 5–5.7¢ Vol $433	Polymarket 25.5% 1–50¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 11.0% 11¢
GA Greg Abbott	13.8% ↓ -9.2%	31.6%	$215	Kalshi 1.5% 1–1.9¢ Vol $113	Polymarket 33.0% 1–65¢ Vol $102	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	13.5% — +0.0%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 13.5% 1–26¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
JH Josh Hawley	12.8% ↓ -14.7%	28.5%	$959	Kalshi 1.5% 1.2–1.8¢ Vol $847	Polymarket 30.0% 1–59¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	12.5% ↓ -10.6%	17.7%	$230	Kalshi 4.4% 3–5.7¢ Vol $121	Polymarket 22.0% 1–43¢ Vol $109	Gemini — —	OG 11.0% 11¢
PH Pete Hegseth	12.0% ↓ -2.0%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 12.0% 24¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
KN Kristi Noem	11.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 11.5% 1–22¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
BK Brian Kemp	11.0% ↓ -16.5%	23.0%	$637	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $525	Polymarket 24.5% 1–48¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
SB Steve Bannon	10.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 10.5% 1–20¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
JT John Thune	10.4% ↓ -29.9%	24.1%	$113	Kalshi 0.6% 0.3–0.9¢ Vol $12	Polymarket 24.7% 1.1–48.2¢ Vol $101	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
TG Tulsi Gabbard	9.9% ↓ -10.1%	16.4%	$1.4K	Kalshi 2.6% 2.2–3¢ Vol $1.3K	Polymarket 19.0% 1–37¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
IT Ivanka Trump	9.0% ↓ -3.5%	—	$112	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 9.0% 1–17¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
NH Nikki Haley	8.7% ↓ -9.6%	16.3%	$2.6K	Kalshi 1.4% 1–1.8¢ Vol $2.5K	Polymarket 17.8% 2.3–33.2¢ Vol $113	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
DJT Donald J. Trump	6.4% ↑ +2.1%	5.7%	$960	Kalshi 4.3% 4–4.6¢ Vol $960	Polymarket — —	Gemini 5.0% 3–7¢	OG 10.0% 10¢
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	6.3% ↓ -7.2%	10.1%	$5.2K	Kalshi 1.0% 0.3–1.6¢ Vol $5.0K	Polymarket 11.0% 1–21¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
TC Ted Cruz	6.2% ↓ -17.8%	13.5%	$2.5K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–1.9¢ Vol $2.4K	Polymarket 15.0% 1–29¢ Vol $112	Gemini 1.5% 0–3¢	OG 7.0% 7¢
EK Erika Kirk	5.5% ↓ -1.1%	14.0%	$6.3K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $6.2K	Polymarket 19.5% 3–36¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 11.0% 11¢
EM Elon Musk	4.1% ↓ -15.1%	7.9%	$113	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 8.0% 1–15¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	3.9% ↓ -3.1%	6.1%	$408	Kalshi 3.9% 3–4.8¢ Vol $408	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 10.0% 10¢
BD Byron Donalds	3.5% ↓ -21.0%	26.5%	$440	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $328	Polymarket 30.0% 1–59¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
KB Katie Britt	2.6% ↓ -24.5%	22.5%	$409	Kalshi 2.6% 2.1–3¢ Vol $297	Polymarket 25.0% 1–49¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
RD Ron DeSantis	2.3% ↓ -12.8%	12.3%	$1.3K	Kalshi 2.3% 2–2.5¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 14.5% 1–28¢ Vol $112	Gemini 2.5% 1–4¢	OG 8.0% 8¢
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$114	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $114	Gemini — —	OG — —
MG Matt Gaetz	0.2% ↓ -17.8%	17.3%	$112	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 17.5% 1–34¢ Vol $112	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢

Probability Over Time

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Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

Cross-Venue Spread

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 7.9¢	Sell @ P 13¢	+5.10%	+5.02%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.8¢	Sell @ P 2.3¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.9¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.6¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-0.60%	-0.67%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.8¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-0.80%	-0.87%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.9¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-0.90%	-0.97%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.9¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-0.90%	-0.97%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 27¢	Sell @ K 26¢	-1.00%	-1.37%	No	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2.5¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-1.50%	-1.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi → Gemini	Buy @ K 4.6¢	Sell @ G 3¢	-1.60%	-1.68%	No	K ↗︎ G ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 3¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-2.00%	-2.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 3¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-2.00%	-2.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 4¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	-2.90%	-2.97%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 6¢	Sell @ P 3¢	-3.00%	-3.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 4¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-3.00%	-3.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 5.7¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-4.70%	-4.77%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 5.7¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-4.70%	-4.77%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
MR Marco Rubio	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 2.6%	+24.40%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 3.0%	+24.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 3.5%	+23.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 3.9%	+23.10%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Gemini	A 24.5%	B 1.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 4.3%	+22.70%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 4.4%	+22.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Gemini	A 24.5%	B 2.5%	+22.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 5.4%	+21.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 5.5%	+21.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi	A 27.0%	B 7.1%	+19.90%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 24.5%	B 5.0%	+19.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Gemini	A 24.5%	B 7.0%	+17.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 34.6%	B 24.5%	+10.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	JT John Thune	Polymarket	A 34.6%	B 24.7%	+9.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	KB Katie Britt	Polymarket	A 34.6%	B 25.0%	+9.60%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 34.6%	B 25.5%	+9.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 33.0%	B 24.5%	+8.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	JT John Thune	Polymarket	A 33.0%	B 24.7%	+8.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	KB Katie Britt	Polymarket	A 33.0%	B 25.0%	+8.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 33.0%	B 25.5%	+7.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 31.5%	B 24.5%	+7.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JT John Thune	Polymarket	A 31.5%	B 24.7%	+6.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KB Katie Britt	Polymarket	A 31.5%	B 25.0%	+6.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 31.5%	B 25.5%	+6.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Gemini	A 7.0%	B 1.5%	+5.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JK Joe Kent	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 30.0%	B 24.5%	+5.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 30.0%	B 24.5%	+5.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 30.0%	B 24.5%	+5.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JK Joe Kent	JT John Thune	Polymarket	A 30.0%	B 24.7%	+5.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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