Prediction Markets 2028 Republican VP Nominee

2028 Republican VP Nominee Odds & Predictions

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Updated 7 minutes ago · 7:47 AM PDT

2028 US President Odds Republican Nominee for President

Prediction markets have Marco Rubio as the favorite for 2028 Republican VP nominee race, with a 28.9% probability or, +247 odds. Ted Cruz is coming in at second with 17.5% (+471), while J.D. Vance has a 6.5% chance. Total volume for the 2028 Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $83.6K in the last 30 days with $69.8K on Kalshi and $13.8K on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and OG to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

1.73%

Byron Donalds → View arbs

Current Favorite

28.9%

Marco Rubio 0.2%

30D Volume (Share)

$83.6K

Momentum Leader

+16.1%

Ted Cruz 30D change

List of 2028 Republican VP Nominee Considerations

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Marco Rubio

Vol $5.3K Spread 5.5%

Agg 28.9%

↓ -0.2%

O 33.0%

P 30.5%

G 28.5%

K 27.5%

Ted Cruz

Vol $822 Spread 16.4%

Agg 17.5%

↑ +16.1%

P 17.8%

O 7.0%

G 1.5%

K 1.4%

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $3.8K Spread 0.2%

Agg 6.5%

— +0.0%

P 6.5%

G 6.5%

K 6.3%

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $330 Spread —

Agg 5.8%

↓ -2.6%

P 5.8%

Polymarket 5.8%

Vol $330 5.5–6¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $452 Spread —

Agg 5.3%

↓ -5.8%

P 5.3%

Polymarket 5.3%

Vol $452 5.1–5.4¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $1.7K Spread 1.3%

Agg 4.8%

↑ +0.6%

K 4.8%

G 3.5%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $155 Spread —

Agg 4.7%

↑ +0.3%

P 4.7%

Polymarket 4.7%

Vol $155 0.3–9¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $2.3K Spread 6.0%

Agg 4.0%

↓ -0.2%

O 10.0%

K 4.0%

Donald Trump

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 4.0%

↑ +1.0%

P 4.0%

Polymarket 4.0%

Vol $1.5K 1.7–6.2¢

Rand Paul

Vol $214 Spread —

Agg 3.8%

↓ -3.0%

P 3.8%

Polymarket 3.8%

Vol $214 0.2–7.4¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $676 Spread —

Agg 3.7%

↑ +1.3%

P 3.7%

Polymarket 3.7%

Vol $676 2.7–4.6¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $378 Spread 5.7%

Agg 3.1%

↑ +0.4%

O 7.0%

P 3.2%

K 1.4%

Elise Stefanik

Vol $178 Spread 5.6%

Agg 3.1%

↑ +1.4%

O 8.0%

P 3.2%

K 2.4%

Tucker Carlson

Vol $148 Spread —

Agg 2.8%

↓ -2.3%

P 2.8%

Polymarket 2.8%

Vol $148 0.2–5.3¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $587 Spread 6.5%

Agg 2.6%

↓ -0.1%

O 9.0%

K 2.8%

P 2.6%

Kristi Noem

Vol $157 Spread —

Agg 2.4%

↑ +1.8%

P 2.4%

Polymarket 2.4%

Vol $157 0.2–4.5¢

Joe Kent

Vol $142 Spread —

Agg 2.3%

↓ -0.2%

P 2.3%

Polymarket 2.3%

Vol $142 0.2–4.4¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $265 Spread 5.4%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -0.2%

O 7.0%

P 2.3%

K 1.6%

Elon Musk

Vol $160 Spread 1.9%

Agg 2.2%

↑ +1.0%

P 2.3%

K 0.4%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $135 Spread —

Agg 2.2%

↓ -2.0%

P 2.2%

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $135 0.4–3.9¢

Erika Kirk

Vol $3.4K Spread 8.1%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -0.7%

O 9.0%

K 3.0%

P 1.0%

Katie Britt

Vol $838 Spread 7.6%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -1.3%

O 9.0%

K 2.8%

P 1.4%

Nikki Haley

Vol $556 Spread 5.7%

Agg 1.4%

↓ -7.1%

O 7.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.4%

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $50.3K Spread 7.4%

Agg 1.1%

↓ -3.7%

O 8.0%

K 2.5%

P 0.7%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $1.4K Spread 6.3%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -2.5%

O 7.0%

K 1.7%

P 0.7%

Pete Hegseth

Vol $388 Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $388 0.4–1.5¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $4.5K Spread 7.4%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -1.3%

O 8.0%

K 1.8%

G 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $147 Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $147 0.1–1.4¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $360 Spread 5.6%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.9%

O 6.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $330 Spread 6.3%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.6%

O 7.0%

K 1.1%

P 0.8%

Eric Trump

Vol $325 Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.9%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $325 0.6–0.8¢

Byron Donalds

Vol $643 Spread 7.4%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -2.0%

O 8.0%

K 2.7%

P 0.7%

Greg Abbott

Vol $223 Spread 5.4%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.9%

O 6.0%

K 0.9%

P 0.7%

John Thune

Vol $287 Spread 5.5%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

O 6.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Mike Pence

Vol $145 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.7%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $145 0.2–0.9¢

Tom Brady

Vol $135 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -2.0%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $135 0.1–0.9¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $140 Spread —

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $140 0.1–0.8¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	OG
MR Marco Rubio	28.9% ↓ -0.2%	5.5%	$5.3K	Kalshi 27.5% 27–28¢ Vol $1.7K	Polymarket 30.5% 30–31¢ Vol $3.6K	Gemini 28.5% 28–29¢	OG 33.0% 33¢
TC Ted Cruz	17.5% ↑ +16.1%	16.4%	$822	Kalshi 1.4% 1.2–1.6¢ Vol $190	Polymarket 17.8% 1.3–34.3¢ Vol $632	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢	OG 7.0% 7¢
JDV J.D. Vance	6.5% — +0.0%	0.2%	$3.8K	Kalshi 6.3% 5.6–7¢ Vol $3.5K	Polymarket 6.5% 5–8¢ Vol $360	Gemini 6.5% 6–7¢	OG — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	5.8% ↓ -2.6%	—	$330	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 5.8% 5.5–6¢ Vol $330	Gemini — —	OG — —
TM Thomas Massie	5.3% ↓ -5.8%	—	$452	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 5.3% 5.1–5.4¢ Vol $452	Gemini — —	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump	4.8% ↑ +0.6%	1.3%	$1.7K	Kalshi 4.8% 4.6–5¢ Vol $1.7K	Polymarket — —	Gemini 3.5% 3–4¢	OG — —
IT Ivanka Trump	4.7% ↑ +0.3%	—	$155	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.7% 0.3–9¢ Vol $155	Gemini — —	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	4.0% ↓ -0.2%	6.0%	$2.3K	Kalshi 4.0% 3.9–4.1¢ Vol $2.3K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 10.0% 10¢
DT Donald Trump	4.0% ↑ +1.0%	—	$1.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.0% 1.7–6.2¢ Vol $1.5K	Gemini — —	OG — —
RP Rand Paul	3.8% ↓ -3.0%	—	$214	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.8% 0.2–7.4¢ Vol $214	Gemini — —	OG — —
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	3.7% ↑ +1.3%	—	$676	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.7% 2.7–4.6¢ Vol $676	Gemini — —	OG — —
BK Brian Kemp	3.1% ↑ +0.4%	5.7%	$378	Kalshi 1.4% 0.9–1.8¢ Vol $10	Polymarket 3.2% 1.2–5.1¢ Vol $367	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
ES Elise Stefanik	3.1% ↑ +1.4%	5.6%	$178	Kalshi 2.4% 2.1–2.7¢ Vol $13	Polymarket 3.2% 0.4–5.9¢ Vol $165	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
TC Tucker Carlson	2.8% ↓ -2.3%	—	$148	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.8% 0.2–5.3¢ Vol $148	Gemini — —	OG — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	2.6% ↓ -0.1%	6.5%	$587	Kalshi 2.8% 2.2–3.3¢ Vol $327	Polymarket 2.6% 1.1–4¢ Vol $260	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
KN Kristi Noem	2.4% ↑ +1.8%	—	$157	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.4% 0.2–4.5¢ Vol $157	Gemini — —	OG — —
JK Joe Kent	2.3% ↓ -0.2%	—	$142	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.3% 0.2–4.4¢ Vol $142	Gemini — —	OG — —
JH Josh Hawley	2.3% ↓ -0.2%	5.4%	$265	Kalshi 1.6% 1.4–1.8¢ Vol $39	Polymarket 2.3% 0.3–4.3¢ Vol $226	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
EM Elon Musk	2.2% ↑ +1.0%	1.9%	$160	Kalshi 0.4% 0.2–0.6¢ Vol $25	Polymarket 2.3% 0.2–4.4¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG — —
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	2.2% ↓ -2.0%	—	$135	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.2% 0.4–3.9¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG — —
EK Erika Kirk	1.5% ↓ -0.7%	8.1%	$3.4K	Kalshi 3.0% 2.4–3.6¢ Vol $3.3K	Polymarket 1.0% 0.3–1.6¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
KB Katie Britt	1.5% ↓ -1.3%	7.6%	$838	Kalshi 2.8% 2.5–3¢ Vol $703	Polymarket 1.4% 0.6–2.2¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
NH Nikki Haley	1.4% ↓ -7.1%	5.7%	$556	Kalshi 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $87	Polymarket 1.4% 0.8–1.9¢ Vol $469	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.1% ↓ -3.7%	7.4%	$50.3K	Kalshi 2.5% 2.4–2.5¢ Vol $50.1K	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $228	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
TG Tulsi Gabbard	1.0% ↓ -2.5%	6.3%	$1.4K	Kalshi 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $693	Polymarket 0.7% 0.5–0.9¢ Vol $678	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
PH Pete Hegseth	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	—	$388	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.4–1.5¢ Vol $388	Gemini — —	OG — —
RD Ron DeSantis	0.8% ↓ -1.3%	7.4%	$4.5K	Kalshi 1.8% 1.1–2.4¢ Vol $4.3K	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $170	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢	OG 8.0% 8¢
KK Kim Kardashian	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	—	$147	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.1–1.4¢ Vol $147	Gemini — —	OG — —
MG Matt Gaetz	0.8% ↓ -0.9%	5.6%	$360	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $225	Polymarket 0.8% 0.1–1.4¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.8% ↓ -0.6%	6.3%	$330	Kalshi 1.1% 0.6–1.5¢ Vol $123	Polymarket 0.8% 0.6–0.9¢ Vol $208	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
ET Eric Trump	0.7% ↓ -0.9%	—	$325	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.8¢ Vol $325	Gemini — —	OG — —
BD Byron Donalds	0.7% ↓ -2.0%	7.4%	$643	Kalshi 2.7% 2.5–2.8¢ Vol $372	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $271	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
GA Greg Abbott	0.7% ↓ -0.9%	5.4%	$223	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 0.7% 0.5–0.8¢ Vol $217	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
JT John Thune	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	5.5%	$287	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.7¢ Vol $20	Polymarket 0.7% 0.5–0.8¢ Vol $267	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
MP Mike Pence	0.5% ↓ -0.7%	—	$145	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.5% 0.2–0.9¢ Vol $145	Gemini — —	OG — —
TB Tom Brady	0.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$135	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.5% 0.1–0.9¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.4% ↓ -0.3%	—	$140	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.4% 0.1–0.8¢ Vol $140	Gemini — —	OG — —

Probability Over Time

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Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
BD Byron Donalds	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 2.5¢	+1.80%	+1.73%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 28¢	Sell @ P 30¢	+2.00%	+1.72%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 2.4¢	+1.70%	+1.63%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2.4¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1.6¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 4¢	Sell @ K 4.6¢	+0.60%	+0.51%	No	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1.1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.2¢	Sell @ K 2.5¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.7¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 0.6¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.1¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.6¢	Sell @ P 1.3¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.2¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 1.4¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.8¢	Sell @ P 1.2¢	-0.60%	-0.67%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Gemini	Buy @ K 7¢	Sell @ G 6¢	-1.00%	-1.09%	No	K ↗︎ G ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.8¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	-1.50%	-1.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4¢	Sell @ K 2.2¢	-1.80%	-1.87%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2.7¢	Sell @ P 0.4¢	-2.30%	-2.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
MR Marco Rubio	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 3.2%	+27.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Gemini	A 28.5%	B 1.5%	+27.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Gemini	A 28.5%	B 1.5%	+27.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 3.7%	+26.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RP Rand Paul	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 3.8%	+26.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DT Donald Trump	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 4.0%	+26.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 4.7%	+25.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 5.3%	+25.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 2.4%	+25.10%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 2.5%	+25.05%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 28.5%	B 3.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 2.7%	+24.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 2.8%	+24.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 2.8%	+24.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 5.8%	+24.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 3.0%	+24.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 6.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 4.0%	+23.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 4.8%	+22.70%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Gemini	A 28.5%	B 6.5%	+22.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 6.3%	+21.20%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 17.8%	B 3.2%	+14.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 17.8%	B 3.7%	+14.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	RP Rand Paul	Polymarket	A 17.8%	B 3.8%	+14.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	DT Donald Trump	Polymarket	A 17.8%	B 4.0%	+13.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 17.8%	B 4.7%	+13.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 17.8%	+12.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	TM Thomas Massie	Polymarket	A 17.8%	B 5.3%	+12.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 17.8%	B 5.8%	+12.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	JDV J.D. Vance	Polymarket	A 17.8%	B 6.5%	+11.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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