Prediction Markets 2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 3 hours ago · 1:56 AM PDT

Prediction markets have J.D. Vance as the favorite candidate to win the 2028 Republican nominee race, with a 39.2% probability or, +155 odds. Marco Rubio holds second at 26.1% (+283) , while Tucker Carlson sits in third at 3.1% (+3,147). Total volume for Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $6.0M in the last 24 hours with $16.3K on Kalshi and $5.9M on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

2.83%

Tucker Carlson → View arbs

Consensus Leader

39.2%

J.D. Vance 13.5%

24H Volume (Share)

$6.0M

Momentum Leader

+16.7%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $80.2K Spread 1.3%

Agg 39.2%

↓ -13.5%

P 39.3%

F 39.0%

K 38.0%

Polymarket 39.3%

Vol $73.1K 39.2–39.4¢

ForecastEx 39.0%

Vol $39 39¢

Kalshi 38.0%

Vol $7.1K 37–39¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $113.5K Spread 3.9%

Agg 26.1%

↑ +16.7%

F 30.0%

K 27.5%

P 26.1%

ForecastEx 30.0%

Vol $0 30¢

Kalshi 27.5%

Vol $6.5K 27–28¢

Polymarket 26.1%

Vol $107.0K 26–26.1¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $308.1K Spread 4.0%

Agg 3.1%

↑ +0.3%

K 7.0%

P 3.1%

Kalshi 7.0%

Vol $2.3K 6–8¢

Polymarket 3.1%

Vol $305.8K 3–3.1¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $102.5K Spread 1.5%

Agg 3.1%

↓ -1.0%

K 4.5%

P 3.1%

F 3.0%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $120 4–5¢

Polymarket 3.1%

Vol $102.4K 3–3.1¢

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $58 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↑ +1.0%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $58 2–3¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $28.2K Spread 6.2%

Agg 1.9%

↓ -2.9%

F 8.0%

K 3.5%

P 1.8%

ForecastEx 8.0%

Vol $0 8¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $77 3–4¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $28.1K 1.8–1.9¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $86.6K Spread 0.0%

Agg 1.5%

↑ +0.4%

K 1.5%

P 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $86.6K 1.4–1.5¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $43.6K Spread 2.7%

Agg 1.4%

↑ +0.2%

F 4.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.4%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $14 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $43.6K 1.3–1.4¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $96.7K Spread 3.8%

Agg 1.3%

↓ -1.2%

F 5.0%

K 3.5%

P 1.3%

ForecastEx 5.0%

Vol $0 5¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $52 3–4¢

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $96.6K 1.2–1.3¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $44.4K Spread —

Agg 1.3%

↑ +0.1%

P 1.3%

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $44.4K 1.2–1.3¢

Rand Paul

Vol $95.4K Spread —

Agg 1.3%

↑ +0.5%

P 1.3%

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $95.4K 1.2–1.3¢

Elon Musk

Vol $15.3K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.3%

P 1.2%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $15.3K 1.1–1.2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $48.5K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.6%

P 1.2%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $48.5K 1.1–1.2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2 0–1¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $58.7K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.2%

↓ -0.2%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $5 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $58.7K 1.1–1.2¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $33.3K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.2%

↓ -1.2%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $3 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $33.3K 1.1–1.2¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $336.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.1%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.1%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $11 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $336.8K 1–1.1¢

Katie Britt

Vol $55.9K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $55.9K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $383.5K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $383.5K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Tom Brady

Vol $95.2K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $95.2K 0.8–0.9¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $258.3K Spread 3.2%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

F 4.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.9%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $258.3K 0.8–0.9¢

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $33.7K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -1.3%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $8 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $33.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $316.6K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.4%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $316.6K 0.7–0.8¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $167.7K Spread 3.3%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.2%

F 4.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $167.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Elise Stefanik

Vol $334.7K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $334.7K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

John Thune

Vol $221.9K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $221.9K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $738.2K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $738.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $115.5K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $115.5K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $81.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $81.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $349.6K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $349.6K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Byron Donalds

Vol $218.4K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $218.4K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Erika Kirk

Vol $96.5K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $96.5K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $9 0–1¢

Mike Pence

Vol $1.0M Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $1.0M 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	39.2% ↓ -13.5%	1.3%	$80.2K	Kalshi 38.0% 37–39¢ Vol $7.1K	Polymarket 39.3% 39.2–39.4¢ Vol $73.1K	ForecastEx 39.0% 39¢ Vol $39
MR Marco Rubio	26.1% ↑ +16.7%	3.9%	$113.5K	Kalshi 27.5% 27–28¢ Vol $6.5K	Polymarket 26.1% 26–26.1¢ Vol $107.0K	ForecastEx 30.0% 30¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	3.1% ↑ +0.3%	4.0%	$308.1K	Kalshi 7.0% 6–8¢ Vol $2.3K	Polymarket 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $305.8K	ForecastEx — —
RD Ron DeSantis	3.1% ↓ -1.0%	1.5%	$102.5K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $120	Polymarket 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $102.4K	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
TM Thomas Massie	2.5% ↑ +1.0%	—	$58	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $58	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
DJT Donald J. Trump	1.9% ↓ -2.9%	6.2%	$28.2K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $77	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $28.1K	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $0
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.5% ↑ +0.4%	0.0%	$86.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $86.6K	ForecastEx — —
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.4% ↑ +0.2%	2.7%	$43.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $14	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $43.6K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	1.3% ↓ -1.2%	3.8%	$96.7K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $52	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $96.6K	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
IT Ivanka Trump	1.3% ↑ +0.1%	—	$44.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $44.4K	ForecastEx — —
RP Rand Paul	1.3% ↑ +0.5%	—	$95.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $95.4K	ForecastEx — —
EM Elon Musk	1.2% ↑ +0.3%	0.7%	$15.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $15.3K	ForecastEx — —
MG Matt Gaetz	1.2% ↑ +0.6%	0.7%	$48.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $48.5K	ForecastEx — —
NH Nikki Haley	1.2% ↓ -0.2%	0.4%	$58.7K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $58.7K	ForecastEx — —
TC Ted Cruz	1.2% ↓ -1.2%	0.4%	$33.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $33.3K	ForecastEx — —
BK Brian Kemp	1.1% — +0.0%	0.4%	$336.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $11	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $336.8K	ForecastEx — —
KB Katie Britt	1.1% ↑ +0.4%	0.6%	$55.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $55.9K	ForecastEx — —
GA Greg Abbott	0.9% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$383.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $383.5K	ForecastEx — —
TB Tom Brady	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	—	$95.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $95.2K	ForecastEx — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	3.2%	$258.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $258.3K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.8% ↓ -1.3%	0.8%	$33.7K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $8	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $33.7K	ForecastEx — —
JH Josh Hawley	0.8% ↓ -0.4%	0.8%	$316.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $316.6K	ForecastEx — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.8% ↓ -0.2%	3.3%	$167.7K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $167.7K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
ES Elise Stefanik	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$334.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $334.7K	ForecastEx — —
JT John Thune	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.1%	$221.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $221.9K	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	—	$738.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $738.2K	ForecastEx — —
KN Kristi Noem	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$115.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $115.5K	ForecastEx — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$81.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $81.1K	ForecastEx — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.7% ↓ -0.3%	0.1%	$349.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $349.6K	ForecastEx — —
BD Byron Donalds	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$218.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $218.4K	ForecastEx — —
EK Erika Kirk	0.5% ↓ -0.2%	0.0%	$96.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $9	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $96.5K	ForecastEx — —
MP Mike Pence	0.5% ↓ -0.1%	0.0%	$1.0M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $1.0M	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.1¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+2.90%	+2.83%	Yes
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.70%	+1.63%	Yes
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 26.1¢	Sell @ K 27¢	+0.90%	+0.63%	No
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.1¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 39¢	Sell @ P 39.2¢	+0.20%	-0.19%	No
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
JH Josh Hawley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
SB Steve Bannon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
MP Mike Pence	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 39.3%	B 1.3%	+38.05%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 39.3%	B 1.3%	+38.05%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RP Rand Paul	Polymarket	A 39.3%	B 1.3%	+38.05%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 39.3%	B 1.4%	+37.95%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 39.3%	B 1.5%	+37.85%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 39.3%	B 1.8%	+37.45%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi	A 38.0%	B 1.5%	+36.50%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 38.0%	B 1.5%	+36.50%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi	A 38.0%	B 1.5%	+36.50%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 39.3%	B 3.1%	+36.25%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 39.3%	B 3.1%	+36.25%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 38.0%	B 2.5%	+35.50%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 38.0%	B 3.5%	+34.50%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 38.0%	B 3.5%	+34.50%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 38.0%	B 4.5%	+33.50%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 38.0%	B 7.0%	+31.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 1.5%	+26.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 1.5%	+26.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 1.5%	+26.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 2.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 26.1%	B 1.3%	+24.80%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 26.1%	B 1.3%	+24.80%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	RP Rand Paul	Polymarket	A 26.1%	B 1.3%	+24.80%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 26.1%	B 1.4%	+24.70%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 26.1%	B 1.5%	+24.60%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 26.1%	B 1.8%	+24.20%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 3.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 3.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 4.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 26.1%	B 3.1%	+23.00%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.