Prediction Markets 2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 3 minutes ago · 9:01 AM PDT

Democratic Presidential Odds Republican VP Odds

J.D. Vance continues to lead the 2028 Republican nomination at 33.9%, but his lead has narrowed since January as Iran-war backlash tests his MAGA standing. Marjorie Taylor Greene broke ranks in March to float Tucker Carlson as an alternative. Marco Rubio has closed the gap to 25.4% on a 35% CPAC straw-poll finish and a central role in Iran diplomacy that Vance has stepped back from. Tucker Carlson sits at 6.5% likely due to his "zero ambition," but kept in play by Trump's public break with him and the MAGA fracture over Iran. The Republican nominee market has traded $406.2K in the last 24 hours. Our custom Republican Nominee odds blends live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Forecastex into a single consensus probability, refreshed hourly.

Largest Spread

3.32%

Marco Rubio → View arbs

Current Favorite

33.9%

J.D. Vance 18.8%

24H Volume (Share)

$427.4K

Momentum Leader

+16.0%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $11.2K Spread 5.6%

Agg 33.9%

↓ -18.8%

F 39.0%

K 35.5%

P 33.4%

Marco Rubio

Vol $11.4K Spread 10.6%

Agg 25.4%

↑ +16.0%

F 35.0%

K 28.5%

P 24.3%

Tucker Carlson

Vol $14.4K Spread 2.1%

Agg 6.5%

↑ +3.8%

P 7.6%

K 5.6%

Ron DeSantis

Vol $16.7K Spread 1.6%

Agg 3.5%

↓ -0.6%

K 4.5%

F 4.0%

P 2.9%

Thomas Massie

Vol $350 Spread —

Agg 2.7%

↑ +1.2%

K 2.7%

Kalshi 2.7%

Vol $350 2.6–2.7¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $13.9K Spread 2.2%

Agg 2.5%

— +0.0%

K 4.7%

F 4.0%

P 2.5%

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $5.0K Spread 4.8%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -2.5%

F 7.0%

K 2.8%

P 2.3%

Greg Abbott

Vol $326 Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.5%

↑ +0.8%

P 1.5%

K 0.4%

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $4.3K Spread 2.9%

Agg 1.3%

↑ +0.2%

F 4.0%

P 1.4%

K 1.1%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $2.3K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.3%

K 0.4%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $2.4K Spread 3.5%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.4%

F 4.0%

P 1.2%

K 0.5%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $3.6K Spread —

Agg 1.1%

↓ -0.1%

P 1.1%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $3.6K 1–1.1¢

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $3.5K Spread 0.2%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -1.1%

K 1.2%

P 1.0%

Rand Paul

Vol $2.5K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $2.5K 0.9–1¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $7.4K Spread 0.0%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -1.4%

K 1.0%

P 1.0%

Elon Musk

Vol $2.3K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

P 1.0%

K 0.2%

Josh Hawley

Vol $83.0K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.3%

K 0.9%

P 0.9%

Katie Britt

Vol $14.1K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.9%

K 0.4%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $5.2K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $5.2K 0.8–0.9¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $7.6K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.9%

K 0.4%

Tom Brady

Vol $16.1K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $16.1K 0.8–0.9¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $10.8K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.5%

P 0.9%

K 0.6%

Brian Kemp

Vol $6.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.9%

K 0.8%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $11.2K Spread 3.7%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

F 4.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.4%

Byron Donalds

Vol $14.9K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Elise Stefanik

Vol $26.9K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.2%

Erika Kirk

Vol $20.8K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.2%

John Thune

Vol $31.2K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.2%

Matt Gaetz

Vol $14.8K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.2%

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $24.6K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Kristi Noem

Vol $21.6K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.1%

Mike Pence

Vol $16.9K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.6%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	33.9% ↓ -18.8%	5.6%	$11.2K	Kalshi 35.5% 35–36¢ Vol $2.9K	Polymarket 33.4% 33.3–33.4¢ Vol $8.2K	ForecastEx 39.0% 39¢ Vol $0
MR Marco Rubio	25.4% ↑ +16.0%	10.6%	$11.4K	Kalshi 28.5% 28–29¢ Vol $3.0K	Polymarket 24.3% 24.3–24.4¢ Vol $8.4K	ForecastEx 35.0% 35¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	6.5% ↑ +3.8%	2.1%	$14.4K	Kalshi 5.6% 5.5–5.7¢ Vol $7.8K	Polymarket 7.6% 7.6–7.7¢ Vol $6.6K	ForecastEx — —
RD Ron DeSantis	3.5% ↓ -0.6%	1.6%	$16.7K	Kalshi 4.5% 4.4–4.6¢ Vol $6.4K	Polymarket 2.9% 2.8–2.9¢ Vol $10.3K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TM Thomas Massie	2.7% ↑ +1.2%	—	$350	Kalshi 2.7% 2.6–2.7¢ Vol $350	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	2.5% — +0.0%	2.2%	$13.9K	Kalshi 4.7% 4.6–4.7¢ Vol $42	Polymarket 2.5% 2.4–2.5¢ Vol $13.9K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
DJT Donald J. Trump	2.3% ↓ -2.5%	4.8%	$5.0K	Kalshi 2.8% 2.7–2.8¢ Vol $217	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $4.8K	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
GA Greg Abbott	1.5% ↑ +0.8%	1.0%	$326	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $326	ForecastEx — —
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.3% ↑ +0.2%	2.9%	$4.3K	Kalshi 1.1% 0.9–1.2¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $4.2K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.2% ↑ +0.2%	0.9%	$2.3K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.5¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $2.3K	ForecastEx — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	1.2% ↑ +0.4%	3.5%	$2.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $2.4K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
IT Ivanka Trump	1.1% ↓ -0.1%	—	$3.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $3.6K	ForecastEx — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	1.0% ↓ -1.1%	0.2%	$3.5K	Kalshi 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $3.5K	ForecastEx — —
RP Rand Paul	1.0% ↑ +0.2%	—	$2.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $2.5K	ForecastEx — —
TC Ted Cruz	1.0% ↓ -1.4%	0.0%	$7.4K	Kalshi 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $4	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $7.4K	ForecastEx — —
EM Elon Musk	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.8%	$2.3K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $21	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $2.3K	ForecastEx — —
JH Josh Hawley	0.9% ↓ -0.3%	0.0%	$83.0K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $83.0K	ForecastEx — —
KB Katie Britt	0.9% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$14.1K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $14.1K	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.9% — +0.0%	—	$5.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $5.2K	ForecastEx — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.9% ↓ -0.1%	0.5%	$7.6K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $7.6K	ForecastEx — —
TB Tom Brady	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	—	$16.1K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $16.1K	ForecastEx — —
NH Nikki Haley	0.8% ↓ -0.5%	0.3%	$10.8K	Kalshi 0.6% 0.5–0.7¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $10.8K	ForecastEx — —
BK Brian Kemp	0.8% ↓ -0.2%	0.1%	$6.1K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.9¢ Vol $25	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $6.1K	ForecastEx — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	3.7%	$11.2K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $4	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $11.2K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
BD Byron Donalds	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$14.9K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $14.9K	ForecastEx — —
ES Elise Stefanik	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$26.9K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.3¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $26.9K	ForecastEx — —
EK Erika Kirk	0.8% — +0.0%	0.6%	$20.8K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $20.8K	ForecastEx — —
JT John Thune	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.6%	$31.2K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $31.2K	ForecastEx — —
MG Matt Gaetz	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.6%	$14.8K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $14.8K	ForecastEx — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.2%	$24.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $24.6K	ForecastEx — —
KN Kristi Noem	0.7% — +0.0%	0.5%	$21.6K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.2¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $21.6K	ForecastEx — —
MP Mike Pence	0.6% — +0.0%	0.2%	$16.9K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.6¢ Vol $477	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $16.4K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 24.4¢	Sell @ K 28¢	+3.60%	+3.32%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.5¢	Sell @ K 4.6¢	+2.10%	+2.03%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 5.7¢	Sell @ P 7.6¢	+1.90%	+1.83%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.9¢	Sell @ K 4.4¢	+1.50%	+1.43%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 33.4¢	Sell @ K 35¢	+1.60%	+1.25%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 1.4¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 1.2¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 2.7¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SB Steve Bannon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.7¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.2¢	Sell @ P 1.3¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1.1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MP Mike Pence	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.9¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 35.5%	B 1.0%	+34.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 35.5%	B 1.1%	+34.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 35.5%	B 1.2%	+34.35%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 35.5%	B 2.7%	+32.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 35.5%	B 2.8%	+32.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket	A 33.4%	B 1.2%	+32.20%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 33.4%	B 1.3%	+32.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 33.4%	B 1.4%	+32.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GA Greg Abbott	Polymarket	A 33.4%	B 1.5%	+31.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 33.4%	B 2.3%	+31.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 35.5%	B 4.5%	+31.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 33.4%	B 2.5%	+30.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 35.5%	B 4.7%	+30.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 33.4%	B 2.9%	+30.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 35.5%	B 5.6%	+29.90%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 28.5%	B 1.0%	+27.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 28.5%	B 1.1%	+27.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 28.5%	B 1.2%	+27.35%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 28.5%	B 2.7%	+25.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 28.5%	B 2.8%	+25.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 33.4%	B 7.6%	+25.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 28.5%	B 4.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 28.5%	B 4.7%	+23.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket	A 24.3%	B 1.2%	+23.20%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 24.3%	B 1.3%	+23.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 24.3%	B 1.4%	+23.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 28.5%	B 5.6%	+22.90%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GA Greg Abbott	Polymarket	A 24.3%	B 1.5%	+22.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 24.3%	B 2.3%	+22.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 24.3%	B 2.5%	+21.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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