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2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 28 minutes ago · 5:41 AM PST

Prediction markets have J.D. Vance as the favorite candidate to win the 2028 Republican nominee race, with a 51.9% probability or, -108 odds. Marco Rubio holds second at 13.0% (+667) , while Donald J. Trump sits in third at 3.5% (+2,798). Total volume for Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $2.7M in the last 24 hours with $10.2K on Kalshi and $2.6M on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

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Largest Spread

3.34%

Marco Rubio → View arbs

Consensus Leader

51.9%

J.D. Vance

24H Volume (Share)

$2.7M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $26.7K Spread 4.0%

Agg 51.9%

↓ -1.1%

P 52.5%

K 48.5%

Polymarket 52.5%

Vol $23.0K 52–53¢

Kalshi 48.5%

Vol $3.7K 48–49¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $24.2K Spread 4.1%

Agg 13.0%

↓ -0.4%

K 16.5%

P 12.5%

Kalshi 16.5%

Vol $3.5K 16–17¢

Polymarket 12.5%

Vol $20.6K 12.4–12.5¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $76.7K Spread 0.1%

Agg 3.5%

↑ +0.2%

K 3.5%

P 3.5%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $1.6K 3–4¢

Polymarket 3.5%

Vol $75.1K 3.4–3.5¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $6.5K Spread 0.5%

Agg 3.0%

— +0.0%

K 3.5%

P 3.0%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $267 3–4¢

Polymarket 3.0%

Vol $6.2K 2.9–3.1¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $7.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 2.5%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $386 2–3¢

Polymarket 2.5%

Vol $7.5K 2.4–2.5¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $13.4K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.7%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.7%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $350 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $13.0K 1.6–1.7¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $36.6K Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.6%

↓ -0.2%

K 2.5%

P 1.6%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $17 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $36.6K 1.5–1.6¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $3 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $3 1–2¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $560.9K Spread 0.0%

Agg 1.5%

↑ +0.3%

K 1.5%

P 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $4 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $560.9K 1.4–1.5¢

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $13.3K Spread 2.2%

Agg 1.4%

↓ -0.2%

K 3.5%

P 1.4%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $33 3–4¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $13.3K 1.3–1.4¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $12.5K Spread 1.2%

Agg 1.4%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.4%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $0 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $12.5K 1.3–1.4¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $8.4K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.2%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $14 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $8.4K 1.1–1.2¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $87.3K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.2%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $87.3K 1.1–1.2¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $5.8K Spread —

Agg 1.1%

↓ -0.1%

P 1.1%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $5.8K 1–1.1¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $77.9K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $77.9K 0.8–0.9¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $94.3K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

K 1.5%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $94.3K 0.8–0.9¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $7.0K Spread 1.8%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $3 2–3¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $7.0K 0.7–0.8¢

Rand Paul

Vol $59.3K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $59.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $32.5K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $262 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $32.3K 0.6–0.7¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $11.2K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $11.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $85.8K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $85.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Erika Kirk

Vol $6.3K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.6%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $6.3K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $33 0–1¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $256.0K Spread 1.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $8 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $256.0K 0.5–0.6¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $110.2K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $110.2K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Elon Musk

Vol $47.9K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $47.9K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $5 0–1¢

Mike Pence

Vol $92.3K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $92.3K 0.4–0.5¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $127.4K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $127.4K 0.4–0.5¢

Katie Britt

Vol $307.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $307.8K 0.4–0.5¢

John Thune

Vol $54.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $54.1K 0.4–0.5¢

Elise Stefanik

Vol $210.4K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $210.4K 0.4–0.5¢

Byron Donalds

Vol $91.2K Spread 1.0%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $91.2K 0.4–0.5¢

Tom Brady

Vol $99.4K Spread —

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $99.4K 0.4–0.5¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
JDV J.D. Vance	51.9% ↓ -1.1%	4.0%	$26.7K	Kalshi 48.5% 48–49¢ Vol $3.7K	Polymarket 52.5% 52–53¢ Vol $23.0K
MR Marco Rubio	13.0% ↓ -0.4%	4.1%	$24.2K	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $3.5K	Polymarket 12.5% 12.4–12.5¢ Vol $20.6K
DJT Donald J. Trump	3.5% ↑ +0.2%	0.1%	$76.7K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $1.6K	Polymarket 3.5% 3.4–3.5¢ Vol $75.1K
RD Ron DeSantis	3.0% — +0.0%	0.5%	$6.5K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $267	Polymarket 3.0% 2.9–3.1¢ Vol $6.2K
TC Tucker Carlson	2.5% — +0.0%	0.1%	$7.8K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $386	Polymarket 2.5% 2.4–2.5¢ Vol $7.5K
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	1.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$13.4K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $350	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $13.0K
TC Ted Cruz	1.6% ↓ -0.2%	1.0%	$36.6K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $17	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $36.6K
TM Thomas Massie	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$3	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $3	Polymarket — — Vol $0
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.5% ↑ +0.3%	0.0%	$560.9K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $4	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $560.9K
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	1.4% ↓ -0.2%	2.2%	$13.3K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $33	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $13.3K
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.4% — +0.0%	1.2%	$12.5K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $12.5K
NH Nikki Haley	1.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$8.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $14	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $8.4K
BK Brian Kemp	1.2% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$87.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $87.3K
IT Ivanka Trump	1.1% ↓ -0.1%	—	$5.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $5.8K
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.9% — +0.0%	0.6%	$77.9K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $77.9K
JH Josh Hawley	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$94.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $94.3K
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.8% — +0.0%	1.8%	$7.0K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $7.0K
RP Rand Paul	0.8% — +0.0%	—	$59.3K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $59.3K
SB Steve Bannon	0.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$32.5K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $262	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $32.3K
GA Greg Abbott	0.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$11.2K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $11.2K
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$85.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $85.8K
EK Erika Kirk	0.6% — +0.0%	0.1%	$6.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $33	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $6.3K
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.5% — +0.0%	1.0%	$256.0K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $8	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $256.0K
MG Matt Gaetz	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$110.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $110.2K
EM Elon Musk	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$47.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $47.9K
MP Mike Pence	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$92.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $92.3K
KN Kristi Noem	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$127.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $127.4K
KB Katie Britt	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$307.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $307.8K
JT John Thune	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$54.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $54.1K
ES Elise Stefanik	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$210.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $210.4K
BD Byron Donalds	0.4% — +0.0%	1.0%	$91.2K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $91.2K
TB Tom Brady	0.4% — +0.0%	—	$99.4K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $99.4K

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Quick Links
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 12.5¢	Sell @ K 16¢	+3.50%	+3.34%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 49¢	Sell @ P 52¢	+3.00%	+2.51%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.60%	+1.53%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+1.20%	+1.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SB Steve Bannon	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.7¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.1¢	Sell @ K 3¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MP Mike Pence	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JT John Thune	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.5¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.5¢	Sell @ K 3¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Quick Link
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 1.35%	+51.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 1.35%	+51.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 1.45%	+51.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 1.55%	+50.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 1.65%	+50.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 2.45%	+50.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 3.00%	+49.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 3.45%	+49.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 2.50%	+46.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 2.50%	+46.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 2.50%	+46.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 2.50%	+46.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 2.50%	+46.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 3.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 3.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 3.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 52.50%	B 12.45%	+40.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi	A 48.50%	B 16.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 2.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 2.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 2.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 2.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 2.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 3.50%	+13.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 3.50%	+13.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 16.50%	B 3.50%	+13.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 12.45%	B 1.35%	+11.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 12.45%	B 1.35%	+11.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 12.45%	B 1.45%	+11.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 12.45%	B 1.55%	+10.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.