Colts vs. Chiefs Week 2 Odds & Predictions
Sunday Night Football sends Indianapolis to Arrowhead Stadium for a Week 2 matchup with Kansas City on September 20 at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Traders currently make Kansas City the favorite at -251 (71.5% implied probability), while Indianapolis is priced at +239 (29.5%). Our Colts vs. Chiefs board aggregates exact full-game winner markets from Kalshi and Polymarket into a volume-weighted consensus, then compares venue odds, spreads and trading volume with hourly updates.
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Current Colts vs. Chiefs Odds: Kansas City Favorite to Win
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
KCKansas City
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
71.5%↓ -2.0%
K
71.5%
P
71.0%
U
69.5%
INIndianapolis
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
29.5%↑ +3.5%
U
31.0%
K
29.5%
P
29.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kansas City | 71.5% ↓ -2.0% | 2.0% | — |
Kalshi
71.5%
|
Polymarket
71.0%
|
Polymarket US
69.5%
|
IN Indianapolis | 29.5% ↑ +3.5% | 2.0% | — |
Kalshi
29.5%
|
Polymarket
29.0%
|
Polymarket US
31.0%
|
Week 2 line movement: Colts vs. Chiefs
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Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kansas City |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 31¢ | Sell @ K 70¢ | +39.00% | +38.30% |
Yes | |
IN Indianapolis |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 30¢ | Sell @ U 30.5¢ | +0.50% | +0.20% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kansas City |
IN Indianapolis |
Kalshi | A 71.5% | B 29.5% | +42.00% | Buy spread | |
KC Kansas City |
IN Indianapolis |
Polymarket | A 71.0% | B 29.0% | +42.00% | Buy spread | |
KC Kansas City |
IN Indianapolis |
Polymarket US | A 69.5% | B 31.0% | +38.50% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
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NFL Week 2 Odds: Daily Predictions and Lines
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