Spain became the latest European heavyweight to qualify for the World Cup knockout stage after thrashing Saudi Arabia 4-0 yesterday. La Roja will join in-form teams like Germany, the Netherlands, Mexico, and the USA in the Round of 32.
Prediction markets give Argentina a 68% chance of beating Austria today. France, the outright World Cup favorite, is also in action against Iraq, and Norway then takes on Senegal in another big game.
Here’s where the markets are pricing the Argentina vs. Austria matchup across Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET in Dallas. Kalshi and Polymarket have promos available for this game. Get $10 at Kalshi using the code RATE or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus with your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Argentina) | 68% | 69% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 23% | 22% |
| Moneyline (Austria) | 12% | 12% |
| Spread (Argentina -1.5) | 40% | 38% |
| Spread (Austria +1.5) | 61% | 63% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 51% | 50% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 50% | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 48% | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 53% | 53% |
| First Team to Score (Argentina) | 71% | 71% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 25% | 24% |
| First Team to Score (Austria) | 6% | 5% |
These teams are level on three points apiece at the top of Group J after securing emphatic wins on Matchday 1. Lionel Messi’s hat-trick inspired Argentina to a 3-0 victory over Algeria, while Austria beat Jordan 3-1. They will now meet for a pivotal clash in Dallas at 1 p.m. ET this afternoon.
Argentina is trading at 64% with Polymarket and Kalshi to win this game. The reigning world champion has an embarrassment of attacking riches, so Argentina could cause problems for Austria’s defense. Messi was magnificent against Algeria on Matchday 1, while the likes of Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez provide extra firepower. Messi is trading at 51% with Kalshi to score in this game, and he’s priced at 61% to either score or assist.
The Austrians didn’t look entirely convincing during that 3-1 win against Jordan on Matchday 1. Yazan Al-Arab’s own goal handed them a 2-1 lead in the 77th minute, and they were only assured of victory after a late penalty kick from Marko Arnautović. Austria will face a much sterner test of its mettle against Argentina. Prediction sites give Austria a 12% chance of winning, while a draw sits at 23%.
Over 2.5 goals is trading at 51%. That looks interesting, as it paid off in both of these teams’ opening games of the tournament.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
Argentina vs. Austria is the standout game today, but soccer fans can also look forward to another three high-profile matches. Here are the prediction market odds for the rest of the day’s World Cup matchups.
France vs. Iraq, 5 p.m. ET
Prediction markets expect France to secure a heavy win against Iraq when the teams clash in Philadelphia this afternoon.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (France) | 91% | 90% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 7% | 8% |
| Moneyline (Iraq) | 2.5% | 3% |
| Spread (France -2.5) | 57% | 58% |
| Spread (Iraq +2.5) | 44% | 43% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 53% | 53% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 48% | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 33% | 32% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 68% | 69% |
| First Team to Score (France) | 88% | 88% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 4% | 3% |
| First Team to Score (Iraq) | 12% | 10% |
France is priced at 19.8% with Polymarket and 19.5% with Kalshi to win the World Cup after beating Senegal 3-1 in its opener. Star striker Kylian Mbappé scored twice in that game, and Bradley Barcola was also on target.
By contrast, Iraq is priced at 89% with Kalshi to finish bottom of Group I after losing 4-1 to Norway on Matchday 1. The Iraqis created plenty of chances in that game, but their finishing was poor, and they couldn’t deal with Norway striker Erling Haaland. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of stopping Mbappé, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, and Désiré Doué – four of the world’s best forwards – in Philadelphia this afternoon.
France is trading at 91% to win the match, which reflects the gulf in quality between these teams. If you want more value, you can back France to cover a 2.5-goal spread, which is trading at 57% with Polymarket. Mbappé, the favorite to win the World Cup Golden Boot, is priced at 66% to score in this game. Olise, who provided a brilliant assist for Mbappé against Senegal, is trading at 41% to get another assist today.
Norway vs. Senegal, 8 p.m. ET
Norway’s players should be full of confidence after cruising to that 4-1 win against Iraq last week. The defense looked a little flimsy, but the Norwegian attackers were devastating throughout that game. Norway will face a tougher game against Senegal in New Jersey today, but it’s priced at 45% to win.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Norway) | 45% | 46% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 28% | 28% |
| Moneyline (Senegal) | 29% | 28% |
| Spread (Norway -1.5) | 23% | 24% |
| Spread (Senegal +1.5) | 78% | 77% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 52% | 52% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 49% | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 57% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 44% | 43% |
| First Team to Score (Norway) | 54% | 54% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 7% |
| First Team to Score (Senegal) | 42% | 42% |
Both teams to score could be a popular market for this game. It paid off in Norway’s 4-1 win against Iraq and Senegal’s 3-1 defeat to France, and it’s trading at 57% with Polymarket.
Senegal’s defenders couldn’t cope with the pace and movement of Mbappé on Matchday 1, which suggests they could struggle to contain Haaland today. However, the Lions of Teranga also look dangerous in attack, and the likes of Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, Ismaïla Sarr, and Ibrahim Mbaye could exploit Norway’s defensive weaknesses.
Jordan vs. Algeria, 11 p.m. ET
These teams could end up battling for third place in Group J, so this promises to be a pivotal game. Jordan lost 3-1 to Austria in its opener, while Algeria suffered a 3-0 defeat to Argentina. Prediction sites give Algeria a 63% chance of beating Jordan in San Francisco tonight.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Jordan) | 16% | 16% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 23% | 23% |
| Moneyline (Algeria) | 64% | 62% |
| Spread (Jordan +1.5) | 63% | 64% |
| Spread (Algeria -1.5) | 38% | 37% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 51% | 51% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 50% | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 49% | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 52% | 52% |
| First Team to Score (Jordan) | 29% | 27% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 8% | 8% |
| First Team to Score (Algeria) | 67% | 67% |
Algeria didn’t offer much in attack during that 3-0 defeat to Argentina, but the forwards should have more chances to impress against Jordan. Marseille striker Amine Gouiri has scored 10 goals in 24 games for his country, and he will spearhead the Algerian attack today. He’s priced at 41% to score.
The Jordanians showed grit and determination against Austria on Matchday 1, but they were ultimately outclassed. Both teams to score is priced at 49%, but prediction markets expect Algeria to get the better of Jordan.
Several teams can qualify for the World Cup Round of 32 today, but the drama doesn’t end there. Matchday 2 concludes with four big games tomorrow, including England vs. Ghana, and Matchday 3 will then get underway with Switzerland vs. Canada on Wednesday.
For live World Cup pricing across both platforms and every current sign-up offer, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
