Prediction Markets Trump Administration Odds

Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?

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Updated 47 minutes ago · 12:04 AM PDT

Kash Patel is the favorite to leave the Trump administration in 2026 at prediction markets, trading at 75.0% on "Who will leave the Trump administration this year" market as White House frustration with the FBI director mounts. Todd Blancheholds second on the board, with traders pricing in reported pre-midterm pressure from the White House at 60.5% and the fallout from Joe Kent's resignation in protest of the Iran war. Three Cabinet-level departures have already cleared the board this year. The contract resolves December 31, 2026, with pricing aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), updated hourly. Aggregated cross-platform odds for Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

60.39%

Tulsi Gabbard → View arbs

Current Favorite

75.0%

Kash Patel +10.1%

30D Volume (Share)

$1.2M

Momentum Leader

+17.0%

Mike Huckabee YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Who will leave the Trump administration this year?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Kash Patel

Vol $347.3K Spread 7.0%

Agg 75.0%

↑ +10.1%

K 78.5%

G 78.5%

P 71.5%

Todd Blanche

Vol $10.0K Spread —

Agg 60.5%

↑ +10.0%

K 60.5%

Kalshi 60.5%

Vol $10.0K 60–61¢

Amy Gleason

Vol $1.7K Spread —

Agg 57.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 57.5%

Kalshi 57.5%

Vol $1.7K 57–58¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $5.2K Spread —

Agg 57.0%

↓ -10.2%

P 57.0%

Polymarket 57.0%

Vol $5.2K 55.1–58.9¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $182.6K Spread 59.0%

Agg 55.3%

↓ -7.5%

K 62.5%

P 52.5%

G 3.5%

Howard Lutnick

Vol $78.0K Spread 55.5%

Agg 54.7%

↑ +2.1%

K 55.5%

P 53.5%

G 0.0%

Karoline Leavitt

Vol $105.8K Spread 7.0%

Agg 50.7%

↑ +1.5%

K 51.5%

G 51.0%

P 44.5%

Pete Hegseth

Vol $266.8K Spread 5.5%

Agg 45.4%

↓ -5.0%

K 45.5%

G 44.5%

P 40.0%

Mike Huckabee

Vol $1.4K Spread —

Agg 43.0%

↑ +17.0%

K 43.0%

Kalshi 43.0%

Vol $1.4K 40–46¢

Lee Zeldin

Vol $12.8K Spread 53.5%

Agg 42.3%

↑ +3.5%

K 53.5%

P 36.5%

G 0.0%

Susie Wiles

Vol $23.0K Spread 11.0%

Agg 38.6%

↓ -0.3%

G 44.0%

K 43.5%

P 33.0%

Chris Wright

Vol $3.9K Spread —

Agg 38.0%

↑ +6.0%

K 38.0%

Kalshi 38.0%

Vol $3.9K 36–40¢

Dan Scavino

Vol $65 Spread —

Agg 36.5%

↑ +3.0%

P 36.5%

Polymarket 36.5%

Vol $65 1–72¢

David Sacks

Vol $2.2K Spread —

Agg 33.0%

↑ +3.5%

P 33.0%

Polymarket 33.0%

Vol $2.2K 26.9–39¢

Bill Pulte

Vol $920 Spread —

Agg 30.5%

↓ -3.0%

K 30.5%

Kalshi 30.5%

Vol $920 29–32¢

Steve Witkoff

Vol $3.1K Spread —

Agg 28.5%

↓ -12.5%

K 28.5%

Kalshi 28.5%

Vol $3.1K 27–30¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy

Vol $23.9K Spread 31.0%

Agg 28.2%

↑ +3.7%

K 31.0%

P 26.5%

G 0.0%

Tom Homan

Vol $2.0K Spread 2.0%

Agg 26.5%

↑ +8.5%

K 26.5%

P 24.5%

Peter Navarro

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 24.5%

↑ +2.5%

K 24.5%

Kalshi 24.5%

Vol $1.1K 23–26¢

Linda McMahon

Vol $2.5K Spread —

Agg 24.0%

↓ -4.5%

K 24.0%

Kalshi 24.0%

Vol $2.5K 23–25¢

Rodney Scott

Vol $248 Spread —

Agg 23.5%

↓ -3.5%

K 23.5%

Kalshi 23.5%

Vol $248 23–24¢

Scott Turner

Vol $116 Spread —

Agg 22.5%

↑ +1.0%

K 22.5%

Kalshi 22.5%

Vol $116 22–23¢

Sean Duffy

Vol $2.5K Spread —

Agg 22.5%

↓ -10.5%

K 22.5%

Kalshi 22.5%

Vol $2.5K 20–25¢

Mehmet Oz

Vol $1.2K Spread —

Agg 22.0%

— +0.0%

K 22.0%

Kalshi 22.0%

Vol $1.2K 21–23¢

Brendan Carr

Vol $344 Spread —

Agg 21.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 21.5%

Kalshi 21.5%

Vol $344 19–24¢

John Ratcliffe

Vol $2.1K Spread 36.5%

Agg 21.5%

↑ +8.3%

P 36.5%

K 21.5%

G 0.0%

Kelly Loeffler

Vol $381 Spread —

Agg 21.5%

↓ -2.0%

K 21.5%

Kalshi 21.5%

Vol $381 19–24¢

Scott Bessent

Vol $8.8K Spread 0.5%

Agg 21.5%

↑ +2.9%

K 21.5%

P 21.0%

Brooke Rollins

Vol $874 Spread —

Agg 21.0%

↓ -1.0%

K 21.0%

Kalshi 21.0%

Vol $874 20–22¢

Stephen Miller

Vol $10.7K Spread 2.5%

Agg 19.8%

↓ -6.1%

K 22.0%

P 19.5%

Doug Collins

Vol $252 Spread —

Agg 19.5%

↑ +3.0%

K 19.5%

Kalshi 19.5%

Vol $252 19–20¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $18.5K Spread 1.5%

Agg 19.0%

↓ -0.5%

K 20.0%

P 18.5%

Doug Burgum

Vol $389 Spread —

Agg 18.0%

↑ +1.0%

K 18.0%

Kalshi 18.0%

Vol $389 16–20¢

Russell Vought

Vol $254 Spread 23.0%

Agg 18.0%

↓ -3.0%

P 41.0%

K 18.0%

Jamieson Greer

Vol $103 Spread —

Agg 17.0%

↑ +1.0%

K 17.0%

Kalshi 17.0%

Vol $103 15–19¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
KP Kash Patel	75.0% ↑ +10.1%	7.0%	$347.3K	Kalshi 78.5% 78–79¢ Vol $226.4K	Polymarket 71.5% 70–73¢ Vol $120.9K	Gemini 78.5% 76–81¢
TB Todd Blanche	60.5% ↑ +10.0%	—	$10.0K	Kalshi 60.5% 60–61¢ Vol $10.0K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
AG Amy Gleason	57.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$1.7K	Kalshi 57.5% 57–58¢ Vol $1.7K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KN Kristi Noem	57.0% ↓ -10.2%	—	$5.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 57.0% 55.1–58.9¢ Vol $5.2K	Gemini — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	55.3% ↓ -7.5%	59.0%	$182.6K	Kalshi 62.5% 61–64¢ Vol $107.4K	Polymarket 52.5% 52–53¢ Vol $75.1K	Gemini 3.5% 7–0¢
HL Howard Lutnick	54.7% ↑ +2.1%	55.5%	$78.0K	Kalshi 55.5% 55–56¢ Vol $42.0K	Polymarket 53.5% 53–54¢ Vol $36.0K	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢
KL Karoline Leavitt	50.7% ↑ +1.5%	7.0%	$105.8K	Kalshi 51.5% 51–52¢ Vol $86.9K	Polymarket 44.5% 44–45¢ Vol $18.9K	Gemini 51.0% 48–54¢
PH Pete Hegseth	45.4% ↓ -5.0%	5.5%	$266.8K	Kalshi 45.5% 45–46¢ Vol $196.8K	Polymarket 40.0% 39–41¢ Vol $69.9K	Gemini 44.5% 42–47¢
MH Mike Huckabee	43.0% ↑ +17.0%	—	$1.4K	Kalshi 43.0% 40–46¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
LZ Lee Zeldin	42.3% ↑ +3.5%	53.5%	$12.8K	Kalshi 53.5% 52–55¢ Vol $8.8K	Polymarket 36.5% 28–45¢ Vol $4.0K	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢
SW Susie Wiles	38.6% ↓ -0.3%	11.0%	$23.0K	Kalshi 43.5% 43–44¢ Vol $15.2K	Polymarket 33.0% 30–36¢ Vol $7.7K	Gemini 44.0% 41–47¢
CW Chris Wright	38.0% ↑ +6.0%	—	$3.9K	Kalshi 38.0% 36–40¢ Vol $3.9K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DS Dan Scavino	36.5% ↑ +3.0%	—	$65	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 36.5% 1–72¢ Vol $65	Gemini — —
DS David Sacks	33.0% ↑ +3.5%	—	$2.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 33.0% 26.9–39¢ Vol $2.2K	Gemini — —
BP Bill Pulte	30.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$920	Kalshi 30.5% 29–32¢ Vol $920	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SW Steve Witkoff	28.5% ↓ -12.5%	—	$3.1K	Kalshi 28.5% 27–30¢ Vol $3.1K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	28.2% ↑ +3.7%	31.0%	$23.9K	Kalshi 31.0% 29–33¢ Vol $18.7K	Polymarket 26.5% 22–31¢ Vol $5.1K	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢
TH Tom Homan	26.5% ↑ +8.5%	2.0%	$2.0K	Kalshi 26.5% 24–29¢ Vol $2.0K	Polymarket 24.5% 6–43¢ Vol $66	Gemini — —
PN Peter Navarro	24.5% ↑ +2.5%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi 24.5% 23–26¢ Vol $1.1K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
LM Linda McMahon	24.0% ↓ -4.5%	—	$2.5K	Kalshi 24.0% 23–25¢ Vol $2.5K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RS Rodney Scott	23.5% ↓ -3.5%	—	$248	Kalshi 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $248	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
ST Scott Turner	22.5% ↑ +1.0%	—	$116	Kalshi 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $116	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SD Sean Duffy	22.5% ↓ -10.5%	—	$2.5K	Kalshi 22.5% 20–25¢ Vol $2.5K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MO Mehmet Oz	22.0% — +0.0%	—	$1.2K	Kalshi 22.0% 21–23¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
BC Brendan Carr	21.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$344	Kalshi 21.5% 19–24¢ Vol $344	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
JR John Ratcliffe	21.5% ↑ +8.3%	36.5%	$2.1K	Kalshi 21.5% 19–24¢ Vol $2.0K	Polymarket 36.5% 6–67¢ Vol $89	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢
KL Kelly Loeffler	21.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$381	Kalshi 21.5% 19–24¢ Vol $381	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SB Scott Bessent	21.5% ↑ +2.9%	0.5%	$8.8K	Kalshi 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $7.8K	Polymarket 21.0% 11–31¢ Vol $1.0K	Gemini — —
BR Brooke Rollins	21.0% ↓ -1.0%	—	$874	Kalshi 21.0% 20–22¢ Vol $874	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SM Stephen Miller	19.8% ↓ -6.1%	2.5%	$10.7K	Kalshi 22.0% 21–23¢ Vol $10.0K	Polymarket 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $732	Gemini — —
DC Doug Collins	19.5% ↑ +3.0%	—	$252	Kalshi 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $252	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MR Marco Rubio	19.0% ↓ -0.5%	1.5%	$18.5K	Kalshi 20.0% 19–21¢ Vol $16.9K	Polymarket 18.5% 17–20¢ Vol $1.7K	Gemini — —
DB Doug Burgum	18.0% ↑ +1.0%	—	$389	Kalshi 18.0% 16–20¢ Vol $389	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RV Russell Vought	18.0% ↓ -3.0%	23.0%	$254	Kalshi 18.0% 16–20¢ Vol $220	Polymarket 41.0% 9–73¢ Vol $34	Gemini — —
JG Jamieson Greer	17.0% ↑ +1.0%	—	$103	Kalshi 17.0% 15–19¢ Vol $103	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 0¢	Sell @ K 61¢	+61.00%	+60.39%	Yes	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
HL Howard Lutnick	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 0¢	Sell @ K 55¢	+55.00%	+54.45%	Yes	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
LZ Lee Zeldin	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 0¢	Sell @ K 52¢	+52.00%	+51.48%	Yes	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 0¢	Sell @ K 29¢	+29.00%	+28.71%	Yes	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
JR John Ratcliffe	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 0¢	Sell @ K 19¢	+19.00%	+18.81%	Yes	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 36¢	Sell @ K 43¢	+7.00%	+6.57%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 45¢	Sell @ K 51¢	+6.00%	+5.49%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 73¢	Sell @ K 78¢	+5.00%	+4.22%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 41¢	Sell @ K 45¢	+4.00%	+3.55%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SM Stephen Miller	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 20¢	Sell @ K 21¢	+1.00%	+0.79%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 20¢	Sell @ K 19¢	-1.00%	-1.19%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 31¢	Sell @ K 21¢	-10.00%	-10.21%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 20¢	Sell @ P 9¢	-11.00%	-11.20%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TH Tom Homan	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 43¢	Sell @ K 24¢	-19.00%	-19.24%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
KP Kash Patel	HL Howard Lutnick	Gemini	A 78.5%	B 0.0%	+78.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	LZ Lee Zeldin	Gemini	A 78.5%	B 0.0%	+78.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Gemini	A 78.5%	B 0.0%	+78.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	JR John Ratcliffe	Gemini	A 78.5%	B 0.0%	+78.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Gemini	A 78.5%	B 3.5%	+75.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	HL Howard Lutnick	Gemini	A 51.0%	B 0.0%	+51.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	LZ Lee Zeldin	Gemini	A 51.0%	B 0.0%	+51.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Gemini	A 51.0%	B 0.0%	+51.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	JR John Ratcliffe	Gemini	A 51.0%	B 0.0%	+51.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Gemini	A 51.0%	B 3.5%	+47.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	HL Howard Lutnick	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 0.0%	+44.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	LZ Lee Zeldin	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 0.0%	+44.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 0.0%	+44.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	JR John Ratcliffe	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 0.0%	+44.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	HL Howard Lutnick	Gemini	A 44.0%	B 0.0%	+44.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	LZ Lee Zeldin	Gemini	A 44.0%	B 0.0%	+44.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Gemini	A 44.0%	B 0.0%	+44.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	JR John Ratcliffe	Gemini	A 44.0%	B 0.0%	+44.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 3.5%	+41.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Gemini	A 44.0%	B 3.5%	+40.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	MH Mike Huckabee	Kalshi	A 78.5%	B 43.0%	+35.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 78.5%	B 43.5%	+35.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	LZ Lee Zeldin	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 36.5%	+35.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	DS Dan Scavino	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 36.5%	+35.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	JR John Ratcliffe	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 36.5%	+35.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	SW Susie Wiles	Gemini	A 78.5%	B 44.0%	+34.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	PH Pete Hegseth	Gemini	A 78.5%	B 44.5%	+34.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 78.5%	B 45.5%	+33.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 40.0%	+31.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	RV Russell Vought	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 41.0%	+30.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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