Texas Sports Betting Options: Trade on Prediction Markets in 2026

Every attempt to change the Texas sports betting laws has died in the state legislature, and the next shot won’t come until 2027. But while Austin stalls, a different kind of sports trading has quietly gone live across the Lone Star State, and it’s completely legal.

Prediction markets, regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, now give Texans access to real trading on sports outcomes, political elections, economic data, crypto prices, and more. Apps like Kalshi, OG, Robinhood, and a growing list of others operate in Texas without the need for state gambling laws because they’re classified as financial exchanges, not online sportsbooks.

The timing couldn’t be better. The Seahawks and Patriots kicks off tomorrow, and for the nearly 30 million people in Texas, prediction markets are paving the way to Super Bowl trading.

Here’s everything you need to know about Kalshi, Polymarket and even DraftKings in Texas.

Best prediction market apps for Super Bowl in Texas

If you’re looking for where to trade tomorrow’s Super Bowl from Texas, Kalshi is our top recommendation. It offers the fastest onboarding, deepest liquidity, and the most extensive Super Bowl menu. OG comes in second with the widest prop selection and the largest sign-up bonus.

Texas prediction site breakdowns

Kalshi: #1 legal app in Texas

Texas availability: ✓ All 50 states

Kalshi is the dominant prediction market in the United States and the one you should probably start with. It holds CFTC designation as a registered contract market, lists more than 4,000 active markets, and processes over $5B in monthly notional volume. Kalshi accepts Texas players without any restrictions. Every market category is available to you: sports, politics, economics, crypto and entertainment. In fact, there’s a dedicated page specifically for event contracts related to the state of Texas.

For sports, Kalshi covers every major league with a Texas franchise and goes deeper than just picking winners. NFL and NBA games offer moneylines, spreads, totals, team totals, player props (touchdown scorers, passing yards, receptions), and custom combos that function like same-game parlays through Kalshi’s request-for-quotation system. All Texas college and pro teams are covered. Beyond sports, Kalshi is the only site where you can access the 2026 Texas attorney general primary, the gubernatorial race, and state-specific political markets alongside national elections and economic indicators.

Strengths: Only app where you can trade Texas-specific political markets like the 2026 AG primary and gubernatorial race with enough action to fill the order. Highest liquidity of any US exchange with over $5B in monthly volume. Supports custom parlays through its RFQ system. Volume on Kalshi has grown over 100x since the exchange launched sports contracts in early 2025. 4% APY on uninvested cash while you decide what to trade.

Drawbacks: Fees on cheap contracts can be steep. Rounding on $0.02 longshots creates effective fees above 12%. Robinhood now routes more than half of Kalshi’s volume, meaning a growing share of the order book depends on a single distribution partner.

OG (Crypto.com)

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

Crypto.com holds the most comprehensive CFTC regulatory stack in the prediction market space, holding DCM, DCO, and FCM licenses. It launched OG as a standalone prediction markets app in February 2026, timed to Super Bowl LX. The exchange was actually the first to list sports event contracts back in early 2025, before Kalshi’s sports expansion gained mainstream attention.

The underlying CDNA infrastructure also powers white-label prediction markets for Fanatics Markets, Underdog, Trump Media’s Truth Predict, and Hollywood.com. Crypto.com’s 150 million existing users can fund trades with Bitcoin, ETH, or traditional fiat currency.

If you’re watching tomorrow’s game, OG offers a fairly deep Super Bowl prop menu within the app: game winner, halftime, MVP, national anthem, coin toss, and player performance markets alongside standard moneylines, spreads, and totals.

Strengths: Widest Super Bowl prop menu of any app heading into tomorrow’s game. Was actually the first exchange to list sports event contracts in early 2025, before Kalshi’s sports expansion gained traction. Full CFTC regulatory stack (DCM + DCO + FCM) means OG doesn’t depend on another exchange to list or settle markets. Powers white-label prediction markets for Fanatics, Underdog, Trump Media’s Truth Predict, and Hollywood.com, giving CDNA the broadest infrastructure footprint in the industry.

Drawbacks: Fee range is wide at $0.02-$0.20 per contract, and it’s not always clear where a given market falls within that range. OG just launched in February 2026, so the standalone app is still finding its footing on things like order execution speed and market discovery. The parent Crypto.com app bundles predictions alongside crypto trading, staking, and DeFi features, which can bury the prediction markets experience if that’s all you’re after.

Robinhood

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

Robinhood’s prediction market offering routes orders through Kalshi, meaning you get access to the same markets and liquidity as Kalshi direct, just wrapped in Robinhood’s familiar brokerage interface. The app processed 2.5 billion contracts in October 2025 alone, tripling its previous quarter. In January 2026, Robinhood acquired MIAXdx alongside Susquehanna International Group to build its own exchange, expected to launch later this year.

The appeal is consolidation. If you already hold stocks or crypto on Robinhood, adding prediction market trading means you can trade Cowboys game outcomes in the same app where you manage your portfolio. Tomorrow’s Super Bowl, next week’s Fed decision, and your stock positions all live under one roof.

Strengths: For Texans who already manage a brokerage account on Robinhood, predictions slot in alongside stocks and crypto with no new app or funding step. Processed 2.5 billion contracts in October 2025 alone, tripling the prior quarter, which signals that retail demand is scaling fast through familiar interfaces. The MIAXdx acquisition positions Robinhood to run its own exchange later in 2026, potentially improving pricing and market variety beyond what Kalshi offers.

Drawbacks: The $0.02 per contract fee is identical to trading on Kalshi directly, so there are no cost savings for routing through Robinhood. Prediction markets are tucked inside a broader app that prioritizes stocks and crypto, so market discovery can feel like an afterthought. The MIAXdx transition later in 2026 could temporarily disrupt how orders are routed or settled.

Polymarket US

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market by global trading volume, processing $3.7 billion in November 2025 alone. But its US presence is still early. The site was banned from the US market from 2022 to 2025 under a CFTC settlement, and returned in December 2025 after acquiring QCEX (a registered DCM) for $112 million. ICE/NYSE invested up to $2 billion at an $8 billion valuation.

The US app is currently sports-only, with politics, crypto, and other categories listed as “coming soon.” What you can trade domestically is limited to single-game markets on the NFL, NBA, NHL, and college football and basketball. Moneylines, mostly, with no props, no combos, and no futures. Polymarket’s US app had no Super Bowl markets at all until Thursday, when a single game-winner contract appeared. The global version is a different story entirely: $699M in Super Bowl winner volume, $234M on the NBA Championship, and a full prop menu from halftime show bets to mention markets. But none of that is accessible from a US account. Polymarket offers the lowest fee structure in the industry at 0.10% on taker orders, but funding requires USDC (a stablecoin), which adds a layer of crypto knowledge that may not suit everyone.

Strengths: Lowest trading fees of any site at 0.10% on taker orders. ICE/NYSE backed the US relaunch with up to $2 billion at an $8 billion valuation, giving the exchange institutional credibility that most crypto-native competitors lack. The global version remains the deepest political prediction market in the world. If and when those categories reach the US app, it will fundamentally change the competitive landscape. Partnerships with DAZN, NHL, and UFC suggest the sports menu will expand quickly.

Drawbacks: The US app is sports-only for now. The political and economic markets that made Polymarket famous aren’t available to American users yet. Funding requires USDC, which means you need to purchase a stablecoin before you can trade, adding a step that fiat-native apps like Kalshi don’t require. The platform promised an August 2025 US launch and missed the entire NFL regular season. Ongoing wash trading concerns on the global version raise questions about how volume figures are reported.

FanDuel Predicts

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

FanDuel Predicts is a separate app from FanDuel Sportsbook, an important distinction for Texas, where the sportsbook can’t legally operate. The prediction markets app launched December 22, 2025, and expanded to Texas on January 14, 2026. It’s built in partnership with CME Group and offers sports event contracts in 18 states, specifically targeting markets where traditional sports betting isn’t legal.

FanDuel has been explicit about its strategy: it will exit sports prediction markets in any state that legalizes sports betting. For Texas, that means FanDuel Predicts is available for the foreseeable future. Legalization isn’t happening before 2027 at the earliest, and likely later.

The app shares CME’s order book with DraftKings Predictions, which means liquidity and market availability are identical across both.

Strengths: $0.01 per contract ties DraftKings as the lowest flat fee in the industry. FanDuel has been transparent that it will exit sports prediction markets in any state that legalizes sports betting. For Texas, that means FanDuel Predicts is here for the foreseeable future since legalization isn’t happening before 2027. The CME Group partnership puts institutional infrastructure behind the order book. Strong responsible gambling tools for users setting limits.

Drawbacks: Shares CME’s order book with DraftKings Predictions, so the markets, pricing, and liquidity are functionally identical between the two apps. The only real difference is the interface. FanDuel splits revenue 50/50 with CME, which means the economics may not support long-term investment in the product. Projected $350M in cumulative losses through the end of 2026 raises questions about how long the app will be supported.

DraftKings Predictions

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

DraftKings launched its prediction markets product on December 19, 2025, available in 38 states including Texas. Like FanDuel Predicts, it routes through CME Group and shares the same order book, so the markets, liquidity, and pricing are functionally identical between the two apps. DraftKings also acquired Railbird Exchange (a DCM license) in October 2025 for future integration, which could eventually give it an independent exchange.

The DraftKings brand carries weight with Texas sports fans who already use the app for daily fantasy. ESPN and NBCUniversal media integrations provide a layer of content around the trading experience. Markets cover NFL, NBA, NHL, college football, college basketball, and economics.

Strengths: Just expanded its Super Bowl menu by adding Crypto.com contracts alongside CME Group, giving it a wider selection than FanDuel Predicts for tomorrow’s game. $0.01 per contract fee matches FanDuel as the lowest. ESPN and NBCUniversal media integrations provide context around markets that other apps don’t offer. The Railbird Exchange acquisition positions DraftKings to operate its own exchange independently of CME, which could unlock custom markets and better economics.

Drawbacks: The base CME order book is identical to FanDuel, with no differentiation on liquidity or pricing for non-Crypto.com markets. Combo slips (parlays) are pre-built, not customizable, so you can’t construct your own multi-leg trades. The app launched in only 38 states with sports in 17, meaning the broader footprint is narrower than Kalshi’s nationwide availability. $50M in projected launch costs suggest the product is still a bet on the category rather than a standalone business.

Fanatics Markets

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

Fanatics was the first traditional sportsbook brand to launch a CFTC-regulated prediction market, going live December 3-6, 2025. The app runs on Crypto.com’s CDNA infrastructure with Paragon Global Markets handling FCM duties. Phase 1 covers sports, finance, economics, and politics. A Phase 2 expansion planned for early 2026 adds crypto, stocks and IPOs, climate, pop culture, tech and AI, movies, and music.

The Fanatics ecosystem, which includes 17 million users across merchandise, collectibles, and sportsbook products, provides a built-in audience. The shared wallet across Fanatics products is a convenience for existing users.

Strengths: First traditional sportsbook brand to launch a CFTC-regulated prediction market, going live in early December 2025. The Fanatics ecosystem spans 17 million users across merchandise, collectibles, and sportsbook products, and the shared wallet means existing Fanatics customers can fund prediction trades without a separate deposit. Phase 2 roadmap adds crypto, stocks and IPOs, climate, pop culture, tech and AI, movies, and music. If delivered, it would rival Kalshi’s market diversity.

Drawbacks: Runs on Crypto.com’s CDNA infrastructure, so fees mirror the same $0.02-$0.20 range. Phase 1 categories are limited to sports, finance, economics, and politics. No welcome bonus or promotional offer at launch, which puts it behind competitors like Kalshi and OG on user acquisition incentives.

Gemini Predictions

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

Gemini launched its prediction market on December 15, 2025, after a five-year DCM application process, one of the longer regulatory runways in the industry. The app is operated by Gemini Titan, LLC, an affiliate of the Winklevoss twins’ crypto exchange, and positions predictions as part of a “super app” strategy alongside crypto trading and staking.

Gemini covers NFL, college football, NBA, politics (2026 midterms), and economics. One unusual feature: Gemini uses official NFL and college football team logos in its interface, something no other CFTC-regulated site does without formal league partnerships.

Strengths: Owns its own DCM license after a five-year application process, giving it full regulatory independence from Kalshi or CME. Fee-free trading during a limited-time launch promotion removes the cost barrier entirely for early adopters. Up to $250 sign-up bonus tied to trading volume benchmarks. Part of the Winklevoss twins’ “super app” strategy alongside crypto trading and staking, which could attract users who want everything in one place.

Drawbacks: Launched December 2025 and is still building liquidity. Order books are thin compared to Kalshi or Polymarket, particularly on less popular markets. Uses official NFL and college football team logos in its interface without formal league licensing deals, which could create legal exposure. Android app is not yet available, limiting the user base to iOS and desktop.

Coinbase Predictions

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

Coinbase went live with prediction markets on January 28, 2026, making it the newest entrant on this list. The publicly traded exchange (NASDAQ: COIN) partnered with Kalshi to offer the full Kalshi market library through the Coinbase app, covering sports, politics, economics, crypto, and culture. Users fund trades with USD or USDC from their existing Coinbase balance. The company also acquired The Clearing Company in December 2025, a prediction markets firm focused on regulated onchain markets, signaling a longer-term commitment to the space.

If you already hold crypto on Coinbase, adding prediction market trading is seamless. No new account, no separate funding step.

Strengths: Newest entrant on this list (January 28, 2026) and the only publicly traded company (NASDAQ: COIN) offering prediction markets, which adds a layer of institutional accountability. Full access to Kalshi’s 3,500+ market library covering sports, politics, economics, crypto, and culture. Fund trades directly from an existing Coinbase balance in USD or USDC with no separate account or deposit step. The December 2025 acquisition of The Clearing Company signals longer-term commitment beyond a simple reseller arrangement.

Drawbacks: Same Kalshi fees apply, so there’s no cost advantage over trading on Kalshi directly. The prediction markets feature just launched and is still being built out within the broader Coinbase app and doesn’t yet feel like a dedicated trading experience. CEO Brian Armstrong’s “word bet” stunt during the October 2025 earnings call drew manipulation criticism and raised questions about how seriously the company takes market integrity.

PrizePicks Predict

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

PrizePicks, the largest daily fantasy sports app in the US with over 20 million users, expanded into prediction markets through a multi-year Kalshi partnership. All event contracts are Kalshi-listed markets accessible through the existing PrizePicks app. Team Picks cover game winners, spreads, totals, and futures. Culture Picks span politics, entertainment, and pop culture.

If you’re already on PrizePicks for DFS, prediction markets show up as a new tab rather than a separate app. No additional download or account creation required.

Strengths: Largest DFS app in the US with over 20 million users, so the built-in audience is massive. Prediction markets appear as a new tab inside the existing app. No download, no separate account, no additional KYC if you’re already verified. Offers both Team Picks (sports) and Culture Picks (politics, entertainment, pop culture) through the Kalshi partnership. First DFS operator to earn iCAP accreditation from the National Council on Problem Gambling, paired with a Kindbridge mental health partnership for user support.

Drawbacks: Standard Kalshi fees with no discount for routing through PrizePicks. The Culture Picks category is available in 48 states but Team Picks (sports) availability varies. Texas is covered, but the inconsistency across states can cause confusion. No dedicated prediction market promotional offer yet, which puts PrizePicks behind competitors offering sign-up bonuses.

Underdog Predictions

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

Underdog became the first sports gaming operator to launch prediction market trades when it went live on September 2, 2025. The app runs on Crypto.com’s CDNA exchange and covers NFL, NBA, MLB, college football, and more. The interface looks and feels like a traditional sportsbook. Team picks, spreads, totals, and combos are presented in a way that any sports bettor would recognize immediately.

If you want the closest thing to a sportsbook experience without actually using a sportsbook, Underdog’s presentation is hard to beat. Trade on Cowboys spreads, Rockets totals, or Astros futures in a layout designed to feel familiar.

Strengths: First sports gaming operator to launch prediction market trades (September 2, 2025), giving it a head start in designing a sportsbook-style interface for event contracts. The layout presents team picks, spreads, totals, and combos in a format any sports bettor would recognize immediately, making it the lowest learning curve of any app on this list. CFTC-regulated through Crypto.com’s CDNA infrastructure with real-time price updates during live games.

Drawbacks: CDNA fee range of $0.02-$0.20 per contract, and the per-market fee isn’t always transparent upfront. Smaller state footprint than Kalshi (23+ states vs. all 50). Requires granting Crypto.com account consent for prediction trading, which adds a step and may feel unfamiliar for users who don’t otherwise interact with Crypto.com products.

Sleeper

Texas availability: ✓ Confirmed

Sleeper launched prediction markets on February 6, 2026, just two days before tomorrow’s Super Bowl. The fantasy sports app, which has 10 million users, now routes prediction market orders through Kalshi after securing NFA approval in January 2026. That approval came after Sleeper sued the CFTC for allegedly dragging its feet on the FCM application; the company dropped the suit once the green light arrived.

Backed by Andreessen Horowitz and General Catalyst, Sleeper combines fantasy leagues, social features, scores, news, and now real-money predictions in one app. For Texans running fantasy leagues with friends on Sleeper, prediction markets are now built into the same app. Trade on tomorrow’s Super Bowl between group chat messages about your fantasy roster.

Strengths: The only app that combines fantasy leagues, DFS, social features, and prediction markets under one roof. For Texans already running leagues with friends on Sleeper, predictions are now built into the group chat experience. 10 million existing users give it a community layer that standalone prediction apps can’t match. Straightforward fee structure at ~$0.02 per contract ($0.01 Sleeper + $0.01 Kalshi) with no hidden surcharges. Full Kalshi sports library including Super Bowl novelty markets is available from day one.

Drawbacks: Sports-only for now. Politics, economics, and entertainment markets are planned but not yet live. Launched just two days ago (February 6, 2026), making it the newest and least tested app on this list. Prediction market trades and DFS picks can’t be combined on a single slip, which limits the cross-product appeal. Full KYC verification including SSN and government ID is required even if you’ve been using Sleeper for fantasy for years.

What a prediction market looks like:

Are prediction markets legal in Texas?

Yes. Prediction markets operate in Texas under federal CFTC jurisdiction, and the legal basis is straightforward: these exchanges are registered as Designated Contract Markets with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the same federal body that oversees futures and swaps trading. When you trade on Kalshi, Robinhood, or another regulated prediction site from Texas, you’re trading event contracts classified as financial derivatives, not placing wagers under state gambling law.

This distinction matters because Texas has some of the strictest gambling prohibitions in the country. Under Texas Penal Code 47.02, gambling is a criminal offense classified as a Class C misdemeanor. The Texas Constitution requires the legislature to pass laws prohibiting “lotteries and gift enterprises,” with narrow carve-outs for charitable bingo, the state lottery, and charitable raffles. There are no licensed sportsbooks, no legal online sports betting in Texas, and no commercial casinos.

Prediction markets exist outside this framework because they fall under federal financial regulation rather than state gambling law. Kalshi’s lead attorney Neal Katyal, a former acting US Solicitor General, has argued across multiple federal courts that “mountains of authority confirm that the [federal law] preempts application of state law” and that “letting each state regulate [prediction markets] differently would plainly frustrate Congress’s aim of bringing futures markets under a uniform set of regulations.”

Multiple federal courts have backed this position. In April 2025, district courts in both Nevada and New Jersey granted Kalshi preliminary injunctions, finding that the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over transactions on designated contract markets. The law firm Stinson LLP put it in plain terms: “the CFTC is the only entity that can take authoritative action against Kalshi, and it has chosen not to do so.”

This legal reality goes a long way toward explaining why Texas hasn’t acted. While roughly a dozen states have issued cease-and-desist orders or filed lawsuits against prediction market operators, Texas is conspicuously absent from that list. When 38 state attorneys general filed an amicus brief supporting Maryland’s case against Kalshi, arguing states retain authority to regulate gambling, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was one of the few AGs who chose not to sign. His office did not respond to press requests for comment. Texas also has not joined the 35+ states that filed letters supporting federal lawsuits against these exchanges.

Nexstar’s FOX 44 investigation noted in January 2026: “While many states are now questioning the legality of prediction markets, Paxton appears to be sitting this one out.”

The federal posture has only strengthened. Under new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, the agency formally withdrew its 2024 proposed rule that would have banned sports and political prediction markets. Selig has also suggested the Trump administration could challenge states that have dragged Kalshi to court, signaling that the federal government may actively defend these exchanges.

The outcome of this legal battle won’t be decided in Austin. It will be resolved in federal appellate courts and potentially the Supreme Court. Until then, prediction markets operate freely across the state with no legal challenge from any Texas authority.

The 2026 AG race wildcard

One potential variable is the March 3, 2026 Republican primary for Texas attorney general. Texas Scorecard asked candidates about prediction markets directly. Ryan Reitz, a former deputy attorney general, said he would use “every lawful tool available” to enforce Texas gambling laws and noted the AG’s Consumer Protection Division “can pursue civil enforcement actions against individuals or entities that mislead Texans about the legality of their gambling or betting operations.” Senator Joan Huffman has also entered the race.

While the current AG has taken no action, a successor could theoretically adopt a different stance. That said, any challenge would face the same federal preemption arguments that have prevailed in multiple courts, and would be swimming against the current of the Trump administration’s CFTC, which has signaled it would back prediction market operators.

Getting started: how to open an account from Texas

Setting up a prediction market account from Texas takes about 10 minutes. Here’s the process.

1. Pick an app. Kalshi is the best starting point for those of us in Texas wanting to trade on sports or political races. It has the widest market selection, highest liquidity, and the most straightforward sign-up. If you already use Robinhood for investing, adding predictions to your existing account is the path of least resistance. If you want the deepest Super Bowl prop menu for tomorrow, OG has the edge.
2. Verify your identity. Every CFTC-regulated site requires Know Your Customer (KYC) verification. Have your Texas driver’s license or passport, Social Security Number, current address, phone number, and email ready. Some apps approve instantly; others take a business day or two, particularly for common names or recently changed addresses.
3. Fund your account. ACH bank transfer is free on most sites and the most cost-effective route. It can take 1-3 business days to fully clear, but many apps make funds available immediately through instant deposit. Debit cards provide instant funding but carry fees. Kalshi charges 2%, for example. Polymarket requires USDC (a stablecoin), which means you’ll need to purchase it on a crypto exchange first.
4. Start with what you know. If you’re new to event trading, pick a market you follow closely. Tomorrow’s Super Bowl is an obvious entry point. You already have an opinion on the outcome, and the binary Yes/No contract structure is simpler than a traditional sportsbook parlay card. Contracts can be as cheap as a few cents, so there’s no need to risk significant capital while you’re learning the mechanics.

Sports prediction markets vs. sports betting in Texas

There’s no licensed sportsbook in Texas. No FanDuel Sportsbook, no DraftKings Sportsbook, no BetMGM. Those operators can’t legally operate here. But while there are no Texas sports betting apps, their prediction market counterparts, FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions, are fully available, along with Kalshi, Robinhood, and the rest of the apps listed above.

The products overlap but they aren’t identical. Here’s what separates prediction market trading from traditional sports betting.

Who you’re trading against. If you’ve been betting at Bovada or BetOnline from Texas, you’ve been betting offshore and against the house. The operator sets the lines, bakes in a margin (usually 10% or more), and profits when you lose. On a prediction market exchange, you trade against other users. Prices are set by supply and demand, bids and asks, the same way stock prices move. There’s no house edge built into the odds.

How pricing works. Prediction market contracts are listed as Yes/No binaries priced between $0.01 and $0.99. The price represents the market’s implied probability. If Seahawks contracts are trading at $0.62 heading into tomorrow’s Super Bowl, the market is pricing Seattle at roughly a 62% chance of winning. Buy at $0.62, and a correct prediction pays $1.00, a $0.38 profit per contract. An incorrect prediction pays $0.00. Most apps now let you toggle the display to traditional American odds (use our prediction market calculators to convert between formats) if that’s what you’re used to.

You can exit anytime. This is one of the biggest practical differences. A traditional sports bet is locked in until the event ends. A prediction market position can be sold at any point before settlement. If you buy Seahawks contracts at $0.55 in the morning and the price moves to $0.75 after a strong first quarter, you can sell for a profit without waiting for the final score. Positions are liquid, just like stocks.

Market depth is more limited. A full sportsbook offers hundreds of props on a single NFL game: individual quarter lines, drive results, exact score margins, and deep player stat markets. Prediction market sites are expanding into player props, parlays, and same-game combos, but the menu is still thinner. Kalshi and Polymarket are the closest to matching sportsbook depth, followed by OG and DraftKings; apps running only on CME’s order book (FanDuel Predicts) are more limited. For some traders, the simpler selection is actually easier to navigate.

Tax treatment: prediction markets have a Texas-sized advantage

Federal tax treatment is one of the most underappreciated differences between prediction markets and sports betting, and it’s especially relevant for Texans.

Prediction market profits are taxed as capital gains because the contracts are classified as commodity derivatives. That means:

• Losses offset gains, and up to $3,000 in net losses can be deducted against ordinary income per year
• You don’t need to itemize deductions to claim losses
• Gains are taxed at capital gains rates, not as gambling income. For 2026, the IRS long-term rates are 0% (single filers with taxable income up to $49,450, or $98,900 for married filing jointly), 15% (up to $545,500 single / $600,050 joint), and 20% above those thresholds. Short-term gains on contracts held one year or less are taxed at ordinary income rates ranging from 10% to 37%.

Traditional gambling winnings receive much less favorable treatment. Losses can only be deducted against gambling winnings, and only if you itemize. The One Big Beautiful Bill introduced an additional cap on gambling loss deductions at 90% of reported winnings, making the math even worse for active bettors.

Here’s where you come out furthest ahead: Texas has no state income tax. Prediction market profits face federal capital gains treatment only. No state income tax, no state gambling tax. If and when Texas eventually legalizes sports betting, those winnings would be taxed federally as gambling income (a less favorable category), though still untouched at the state level. For now, trading prediction markets from Texas carries one of the lightest tax burdens anywhere in the country.

What can you trade from Texas?

Prediction markets have moved well beyond their roots in political forecasting. Here’s what’s available to you across major apps and exchanges.

Sports contracts

This is the largest category by volume and the one driving Kalshi’s explosive growth. You can access contracts on every major league with a state presence:

• NFL: Cowboys, Texans, plus the full league. Game winners, spreads, totals, player props, and futures. Tomorrow’s Super Bowl LX is the single highest-volume event in prediction market history (and probably sports betting history, too).
• NBA: Mavericks, Rockets, Spurs. Championship, conference, and regular season markets.
• MLB: Rangers, Astros. Division, pennant, and World Series futures alongside regular-season games.
• NHL: Stars. Conference and Stanley Cup markets.
• College football and basketball: Longhorns, Aggies, Red Raiders, Horned Frogs, Bears, Cougars, and the full national schedule including March Madness.
• MLS: FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo, Austin FC.
• Tennis, golf, NASCAR, international soccer, and more.

Live trading is where prediction markets distinguish themselves. Prices update in real time as games unfold, and you can enter or exit positions at any point based on what you’re seeing on the field. Fees are charged per trade and vary by app.

Politics and elections

Texas-specific markets are available on Kalshi, including the 2026 gubernatorial race and the attorney general Republican primary. The governor’s race features incumbent Greg Abbott seeking an unprecedented fourth term against state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, the leading Democratic challenger. The AG Republican primary on March 3 is a four-way contest to replace Ken Paxton, who left the office to run for U.S. Senate: U.S. Rep. Chip Roy leads early polling at roughly 40%, followed by state Sen. Joan Huffman, former Paxton deputy Aaron Reitz, and state Sen. Mayes Middleton. National markets will allow trading on the congressional races, presidential approval, policy outcomes, and specific legislative questions. Kalshi processed over $1 billion in election trades during the 2024 presidential cycle.

Economics

Federal Reserve rate decisions, CPI prints, unemployment data, GDP figures. These markets attract traders looking to hedge macro exposure or speculate on economic direction. Available on Kalshi, Robinhood, FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions, and ForecastEx (Interactive Brokers).

Crypto

Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets, all-time high predictions, and token-specific markets. Available across most sites, with Polymarket and Crypto.com/OG offering the deepest crypto-related selection.

Entertainment

Trade on Oscar, Grammy, and Emmy predictions. You will also find reality TV outcomes, box office performance and mention markets where you can predict the outcome of what someone may or may not say. These markets tend to be lower liquidity and shorter duration. They’re fun to trade around cultural moments but not where serious volume lives.

Super Bowl LX: trading on tomorrow’s game from Texas

Tomorrow’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots is the biggest single event in prediction market history. Kalshi’s Super Bowl contract volume has topped $150 million, a 450% jump from last year’s game. For Texans, it’s also a proof of concept: the largest demonstration yet that prediction markets can fill the gap left by the state’s refusal to legalize sports betting.

The NFL is well aware of how prediction markets are being used, as DeFi Rate detailed in our Super Bowl prediction markets guide. The league banned both Kalshi and Polymarket from purchasing ad space during the Super Bowl LX broadcast on NBC. This past week, they somewhat recanted and with new messaging around prediction markets and the following day, released a statement that players are not be owners.

What’s available for tomorrow’s game:

Kalshi and OG offer the deepest Super Bowl menus: game winner, point spread, game total, MVP, halftime show props, national anthem duration, coin toss, Gatorade color, and a growing list of player performance markets. You can build parlays on Kalshi by combining multiple outcomes on a single game.

Robinhood and Coinbase mirror Kalshi’s full menu. DraftKings recently added contracts through Crypto.com alongside its CME markets, expanding its Super Bowl menu significantly. FanDuel offers the very basic set up through CME’s shared order book. Sleeper, which launched prediction markets just two days ago, has Super Bowl moneylines, spreads, totals, and novelty props.

Positions can be opened and adjusted throughout the game. If you take a first-half position and momentum shifts at halftime, you can sell before the second-half kickoff at whatever the market price dictates. That flexibility, the ability to trade in and out of a live sporting event based on real-time probability, is something no traditional online sportsbook offers you in Texas, legally or otherwise.

Why Texas doesn’t have sports betting and when that might change

Prediction markets have given Texans access to sports trading, but they don’t address the larger economic question hanging over the state: Texas is leaving significant tax revenue uncollected by not legalizing regulated sports betting. The Texas sports betting debate has stalled repeatedly, and the numbers only get bigger each session.

The 2025 legislative failure

The Texas Legislature meets only in odd-numbered years, and the 2025 session produced nothing on sports betting. Rep. Sam Harless filed House Joint Resolution 134 in February 2025, proposing a constitutional amendment to authorize regulated sports betting with licenses for professional sports teams, PGA Tour event hosts, and Class I racetracks. HJR 134 never made it out of the House State Affairs Committee. Its final status: “Introduced, Dead.”

The story was familiar. In 2023, HJR 102 had passed the House with a convincing 100-43 vote, only for Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick to block it before the Senate could vote. Patrick controls the Senate agenda as its presiding officer, and he has repeatedly said he lacks Republican support to move gambling legislation forward, claiming only three or four GOP senators back it. A dozen House Republicans publicly opposed gambling expansion during the 2025 session, further narrowing the path.

Patrick announced in April 2025 that he’s running for another four-year term, which signals no change in his position. Gov. Greg Abbott took a different tack, signaling support for legal online sports betting in early 2025, a notable shift from prior opposition. The Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers, Houston Texans, Houston Astros, and Dallas Mavericks have all pushed for legalization through the Texas Sports Betting Alliance. A University of Houston survey found 73% of Texans support casino gambling and 60% support online sports betting.

The votes may exist. The political will at the top of the Senate does not.

The economic stakes

A 2024 study by Eilers & Krejcik Gaming projected that legalized mobile sports betting would generate $360 million or more in annual direct tax revenue, $2.6 billion in annual economic output, 8,000+ jobs, $32 billion in handle at market maturity, and $24.3 million in additional non-gaming tax revenue. The Tax Foundation estimated in January 2026 that Texas would collect $326 million annually at a 10% gross gaming revenue tax rate, making it the second-largest untapped market in the country behind California. The Sports Betting Alliance projects $1.12 billion in revenue over the first five years and has framed the funds as a vehicle for property tax relief.

These are revenue streams that prediction markets cannot generate. Event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges don’t produce tax revenue for the state of Texas. The exchanges operate under federal regulation and don’t pay into state coffers. Prediction markets give individual Texans a legal way to trade on sports outcomes, but they don’t address the hundreds of millions in annual revenue the state is forgoing.

Prediction markets don’t require a road trip

What prediction markets do solve is the access problem. Neighboring states have legal sports betting. Louisiana offers full mobile wagering, and Oklahoma’s WinStar World Casino sits roughly an hour north of Dallas-Fort Worth. Texans have been crossing state lines for years to bet legally, sending their money to Oklahoma and Louisiana in the process.

Prediction market apps are accessible from anywhere in Texas: El Paso, Beaumont, Amarillo, Brownsville, and everywhere in between. Texas prediction markets don’t require a road trip or a state border crossing. You can deposit funds, trade on tomorrow’s Super Bowl or a midweek Mavericks game, and cash out winnings the same day, all from your phone. No state lines to cross. No unregulated offshore site.

Whether the state eventually captures the broader economic opportunity through legalized sports betting is a question for the 2027 Texas legislature. The earliest a constitutional amendment could reach voters, assuming it passes both chambers by a two-thirds supermajority, would be a November 2027 ballot. Legal bets at a licensed Texas sportsbook are years away under the most optimistic scenario.

In the meantime, prediction markets are here now.

The national legal battle and what it means for Texas

The prediction market industry is fighting a multi-front legal war across the country, and the outcome will shape what Texas traders can access going forward. Kalshi alone is involved in 19 federal lawsuits, a mix of offensive suits against state regulators, defensive cases brought by state gaming commissions and tribal interests, and consumer class-action complaints.

Every case circles the same question: does federal regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act preempt state gambling laws? Kalshi says yes. State regulators say no. Federal courts have split.

Nevada and New Jersey initially sided with Kalshi, finding that the CEA grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over designated contract market transactions. Maryland went the other direction, ruling that Congress didn’t intend for CFTC oversight to override state gambling authority. Massachusetts became the first state court to order Kalshi geofenced. Nevada later reversed its own earlier ruling in favor of state regulators.

Texas sits outside this fight entirely. The state has issued no cease-and-desist orders, filed no lawsuits, and made no public statements challenging prediction market operators. The current attorney general declined to join the multi-state coalition opposing Kalshi. The CFTC under Chairman Selig has withdrawn its proposed ban on prediction markets and signaled willingness to challenge states that go after the industry.

For you, the immediate risk is low. The legal question will be resolved in federal appellate courts. The Third Circuit (New Jersey appeal), the Fourth Circuit (Maryland appeal), and the Ninth Circuit (Nevada appeal) are all active, and potentially at the Supreme Court. Whatever those courts decide will apply nationally, including in Texas, regardless of what Austin does or doesn’t do.

The 2026 attorney general race introduces some theoretical uncertainty, but any Texas challenge would face the same federal preemption arguments that have already prevailed in multiple jurisdictions, and would cut against the posture of the current CFTC.

Until the federal courts or Congress draw a definitive line, prediction markets remain fully operational and legal in Texas with no impediment from any state authority.

Know before you trade

This guide is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or tax advice. The regulatory landscape for prediction markets is evolving, and rules may change. Before trading:

• Read each app’s terms of service
• Understand that you can lose your entire investment on any trade
• Consult a tax professional about reporting requirements for your situation
• Consider speaking with an attorney if you have legal questions
• Trade only with money you can afford to lose
• All trading involves speculation and risk

If you or someone you know is struggling with a gambling problem, help is available through the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700 or by texting 1-800-522-4700.