2026-27 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Rueben Bain Jr. Leads at 20.5%
With the 2026 NFL preseason underway, Rueben Bain Jr. is the early Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite at 20.5% (+388), followed by David Bailey at 16.1% (+522). Traders have put — into this award market across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. The feed updates hourly as roles, playing time and regular-season performances reshape the race.
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Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RBJRueben Bain Jr.
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
20.5%↑ +4.0%
U
23.0%
K
20.5%
P
20.5%
DBDavid Bailey
Vol —
Spread 4.5%
Agg
16.1%↓ -0.4%
U
20.0%
K
17.5%
P
15.5%
ARArvell Reese
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
15.0%↑ +3.0%
U
16.0%
K
15.0%
P
12.0%
SSSonny Styles
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
10.5%— +0.0%
U
11.0%
K
10.5%
P
8.5%
CDCaleb Downs
Vol —
Spread 3.5%
Agg
10.3%↑ +0.8%
K
11.5%
U
9.0%
P
8.1%
JRJacob Rodriguez
Vol $3.4K
Spread —
Agg
7.5%↑ +1.0%
K
7.5%
AMAkheem Mesidor
Vol —
Spread 1.7%
Agg
5.5%↓ -2.3%
U
6.0%
K
5.5%
P
4.3%
MDMansoor Delane
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
5.5%— +0.0%
K
5.5%
U
5.0%
P
4.5%
CHCashius Howell
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
5.0%↑ +2.5%
U
6.0%
K
5.0%
MLMalachi Lawrence
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↑ +0.4%
P
4.0%
DTDillon Thieneman
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
2.5%— +0.0%
U
3.0%
K
2.5%
CACJ Allen
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
1.5%— +0.0%
U
3.0%
K
1.5%
DAPD'Angelo Ponds
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
1.5%— +0.0%
U
2.0%
K
1.5%
JMJermod McCoy
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
1.5%— +0.0%
U
2.0%
K
1.5%
ZYZion Young
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
1.5%— +0.0%
U
2.0%
K
1.5%
BCBrandon Cisse
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -3.3%
U
3.0%
K
1.0%
CBCaleb Banks
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -1.0%
U
3.0%
K
1.0%
EMWEmmanuel McNeil-Warren
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -2.0%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
KFKeldric Faulk
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -0.5%
U
3.0%
K
1.0%
PWPeter Woods
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -1.5%
U
3.0%
K
1.0%
CHColton Hood
Vol —
Spread 3.5%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
U
4.0%
K
0.5%
KMKayden McDonald
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
U
3.0%
K
0.5%
TCWTie/Co-Winners
Vol $33
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
Probability Over Time
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Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DB David Bailey |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 16¢ | Sell @ U 19¢ | +3.00% | +3.00% |
Yes | |
CH Colton Hood |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ U 3¢ | +2.00% | +1.93% |
Yes | |
KM Kayden McDonald |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +1.00% | +0.93% |
No | |
CD Caleb Downs |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 9¢ | Sell @ K 10¢ | +1.00% | +0.90% |
No | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 21¢ | Sell @ U 22¢ | +1.00% | +0.79% |
No | |
AR Arvell Reese |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 15¢ | Sell @ U 15¢ | +0.00% | +0.00% |
No | |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 5¢ | Sell @ K 5¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CA CJ Allen |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
BC Brandon Cisse |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CB Caleb Banks |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
KF Keldric Faulk |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
PW Peter Woods |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 5.9¢ | Sell @ U 5¢ | -0.90% | -0.90% |
No | |
SS Sonny Styles |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 11¢ | Sell @ U 10¢ | -1.00% | -1.00% |
No | |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 3¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
DAP D'Angelo Ponds |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
JM Jermod McCoy |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
ZY Zion Young |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
EMW Emmanuel McNeil-Warren |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
CH Cashius Howell |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 7¢ | Sell @ U 5¢ | -2.00% | -2.07% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Polymarket US | A 23.0% | B 3.0% | +20.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
CH Colton Hood |
Polymarket US | A 23.0% | B 4.0% | +19.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Kalshi | A 20.5% | B 2.5% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Polymarket US | A 23.0% | B 5.0% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Polymarket US | A 23.0% | B 6.0% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
CH Cashius Howell |
Polymarket US | A 23.0% | B 6.0% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Polymarket US | A 20.0% | B 3.0% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
ML Malachi Lawrence |
Polymarket | A 20.5% | B 4.0% | +16.55% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Polymarket | A 20.5% | B 4.3% | +16.20% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
CH Colton Hood |
Polymarket US | A 20.0% | B 4.0% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Polymarket | A 20.5% | B 4.5% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
CH Cashius Howell |
Kalshi | A 20.5% | B 5.0% | +15.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Polymarket US | A 20.0% | B 5.0% | +15.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Kalshi | A 20.5% | B 5.5% | +15.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Kalshi | A 20.5% | B 5.5% | +15.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Kalshi | A 17.5% | B 2.5% | +15.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
CD Caleb Downs |
Polymarket US | A 23.0% | B 9.0% | +14.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Polymarket US | A 20.0% | B 6.0% | +14.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
CH Cashius Howell |
Polymarket US | A 20.0% | B 6.0% | +14.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
JR Jacob Rodriguez |
Kalshi | A 20.5% | B 7.5% | +13.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Arvell Reese |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Polymarket US | A 16.0% | B 3.0% | +13.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Arvell Reese |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Kalshi | A 15.0% | B 2.5% | +12.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
CH Cashius Howell |
Kalshi | A 17.5% | B 5.0% | +12.50% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
CD Caleb Downs |
Polymarket | A 20.5% | B 8.1% | +12.45% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
SS Sonny Styles |
Polymarket US | A 23.0% | B 11.0% | +12.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Kalshi | A 17.5% | B 5.5% | +12.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Kalshi | A 17.5% | B 5.5% | +12.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Arvell Reese |
CH Colton Hood |
Polymarket US | A 16.0% | B 4.0% | +12.00% | Buy spread | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
SS Sonny Styles |
Polymarket | A 20.5% | B 8.5% | +12.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
ML Malachi Lawrence |
Polymarket | A 15.5% | B 4.0% | +11.55% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
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