2026-27 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds: David Bailey Leads at 29.1%
With the 2026 NFL preseason underway, David Bailey is the early Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite at 29.1% (+244), followed by Jacob Rodriguez at 19.5% (+413). Traders have put — into this award market across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. The feed updates hourly as roles, playing time and regular-season performances reshape the race.
Top prediction apps for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year futures
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DBDavid Bailey
Vol —
Spread 9.0%
Agg
29.1%↑ +12.6%
K
30.0%
P
29.0%
U
21.0%
JRJacob Rodriguez
Vol $16.6K
Spread —
Agg
19.5%↑ +13.0%
K
19.5%
SSSonny Styles
Vol —
Spread 4.5%
Agg
12.5%↑ +2.0%
U
16.0%
K
12.5%
P
11.5%
CDCaleb Downs
Vol —
Spread 1.8%
Agg
11.5%↑ +2.0%
U
12.0%
K
11.5%
P
10.2%
RBJRueben Bain Jr.
Vol —
Spread 4.2%
Agg
10.3%↓ -6.2%
U
14.0%
K
10.5%
P
9.9%
ARArvell Reese
Vol —
Spread 15.0%
Agg
7.5%↓ -4.5%
P
22.5%
U
8.0%
K
7.5%
DTDillon Thieneman
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
6.5%↑ +4.0%
K
6.5%
U
4.0%
MDMansoor Delane
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
6.5%↑ +1.0%
P
7.0%
U
7.0%
K
6.5%
MLMalachi Lawrence
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.8%↑ +0.3%
P
3.8%
AMAkheem Mesidor
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
1.5%↓ -6.3%
U
3.0%
P
2.9%
K
1.5%
CHCashius Howell
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
1.5%↓ -1.0%
U
3.0%
K
1.5%
BCBrandon Cisse
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -3.3%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
CBCaleb Banks
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -1.0%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
CACJ Allen
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -0.5%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
DAPD'Angelo Ponds
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -0.5%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
JMJermod McCoy
Vol —
Spread 0.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -0.5%
K
1.0%
U
1.0%
KFKeldric Faulk
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -0.5%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
PWPeter Woods
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -1.5%
U
3.0%
K
1.0%
ZYZion Young
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -0.5%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
CHColton Hood
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
EMWEmmanuel McNeil-Warren
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -2.5%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
KMKayden McDonald
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
TCWTie/Co-Winners
Vol $78
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DB David Bailey |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 21¢ | Sell @ P 28¢ | +7.00% | +7.00% |
Yes | |
SS Sonny Styles |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 12¢ | Sell @ U 15¢ | +3.00% | +3.00% |
Yes | |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 10¢ | Sell @ U 13¢ | +3.00% | +3.00% |
Yes | |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CH Cashius Howell |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
PW Peter Woods |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CH Colton Hood |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
EMW Emmanuel McNeil-Warren |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
KM Kayden McDonald |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CD Caleb Downs |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 11.8¢ | Sell @ U 11¢ | -0.80% | -0.80% |
No | |
AR Arvell Reese |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 8¢ | Sell @ P 7¢ | -1.00% | -1.00% |
No | |
JM Jermod McCoy |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 1¢ | Sell @ K 0¢ | -1.00% | -1.00% |
No | |
BC Brandon Cisse |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
CB Caleb Banks |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
CA CJ Allen |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
DAP D'Angelo Ponds |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
KF Keldric Faulk |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
ZY Zion Young |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 7¢ | Sell @ K 6¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No | |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 4¢ | Sell @ K 1¢ | -3.00% | -3.07% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DB David Bailey |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Kalshi | A 30.0% | B 1.5% | +28.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
CH Cashius Howell |
Kalshi | A 30.0% | B 1.5% | +28.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Polymarket | A 29.0% | B 2.9% | +26.15% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
ML Malachi Lawrence |
Polymarket | A 29.0% | B 3.8% | +25.20% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Kalshi | A 30.0% | B 6.5% | +23.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Kalshi | A 30.0% | B 6.5% | +23.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
AR Arvell Reese |
Kalshi | A 30.0% | B 7.5% | +22.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Polymarket | A 29.0% | B 7.0% | +22.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Arvell Reese |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Polymarket | A 22.5% | B 2.9% | +19.65% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
Kalshi | A 30.0% | B 10.5% | +19.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
RBJ Rueben Bain Jr. |
Polymarket | A 29.0% | B 9.9% | +19.15% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
CD Caleb Downs |
Polymarket | A 29.0% | B 10.2% | +18.80% | Buy spread | |
AR Arvell Reese |
ML Malachi Lawrence |
Polymarket | A 22.5% | B 3.8% | +18.70% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
CD Caleb Downs |
Kalshi | A 30.0% | B 11.5% | +18.50% | Buy spread | |
JR Jacob Rodriguez |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Kalshi | A 19.5% | B 1.5% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
JR Jacob Rodriguez |
CH Cashius Howell |
Kalshi | A 19.5% | B 1.5% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Polymarket US | A 21.0% | B 3.0% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
CH Cashius Howell |
Polymarket US | A 21.0% | B 3.0% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
PW Peter Woods |
Polymarket US | A 21.0% | B 3.0% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
SS Sonny Styles |
Kalshi | A 30.0% | B 12.5% | +17.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
SS Sonny Styles |
Polymarket | A 29.0% | B 11.5% | +17.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Polymarket US | A 21.0% | B 4.0% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Arvell Reese |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Polymarket | A 22.5% | B 7.0% | +15.50% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Polymarket US | A 21.0% | B 7.0% | +14.00% | Buy spread | |
JR Jacob Rodriguez |
DT Dillon Thieneman |
Kalshi | A 19.5% | B 6.5% | +13.00% | Buy spread | |
JR Jacob Rodriguez |
MD Mansoor Delane |
Kalshi | A 19.5% | B 6.5% | +13.00% | Buy spread | |
DB David Bailey |
AR Arvell Reese |
Polymarket US | A 21.0% | B 8.0% | +13.00% | Buy spread | |
SS Sonny Styles |
AM Akheem Mesidor |
Polymarket US | A 16.0% | B 3.0% | +13.00% | Buy spread | |
SS Sonny Styles |
CH Cashius Howell |
Polymarket US | A 16.0% | B 3.0% | +13.00% | Buy spread | |
SS Sonny Styles |
PW Peter Woods |
Polymarket US | A 16.0% | B 3.0% | +13.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Build a free 2026 NFL Pick’em pool with no sign-up required. Invite friends, colleagues and share on social. We keep track and do the work for you. You can also opt for a paper copy with our printable NFL schedules.
NFL Week 3 Odds: Daily Predictions and Lines
Week 3 opens with Falcons 28% (+257) vs. Packers 73% (-270) on Thursday Night Football. Kansas City is the strongest early favorite at 84% against Miami, while Vikings vs. Buccaneers is the closest-priced matchup at Minnesota 51% and Tampa Bay 49%.
Kalshi Promo Code RATE: $25 Bonus for Colts vs. Chiefs SNF
The Colts and Chiefs collide on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium. The Kalshi promo code RATE is available, offering new users a $25 bonus after trading $10.
Polymarket Promo Code RATE: $50 Bonus and Zero Fees for Commanders vs. Cowboys
Polymarket is waiving fees on every football market Sept. 19-20. Dallas is priced at 66% for Sunday’s NFC East matchup against Washington. New users can separately unlock a $50 bonus with promo code RATE.
Polymarket Promo Code Rate: $50 Bonus for Lions vs. Bills TNF
The forecast calls for points when the Lions and Bills meet on Thursday Night Football. Polymarket pricing leans toward the Bills winning in a high-scoring game. Unlock a $50 bonus when you sign up to trade with the Polymarket promo code RATE.
NFL Prediction Market Volume Tops $1.035B as Kalshi Reaches $983.36M
NFL prediction market volume reached at least $1.035 billion from Sept. 7-13, with Kalshi accounting for $983.36 million as regular-season trading spread across the Week 1 slate.
NFL Week 2 Odds: Daily Predictions and Lines
Kyler Murray is out for Minnesota’s Sunday game at Chicago, with Carson Wentz set to start and Kalshi pricing the Vikings at 34% against the Bears at 66%. Eagles vs. Titans leads the remaining slate with 3,647,177 contracts in Kalshi game composite volume as of 7:25 a.m. ET on Sept. 20. Panthers vs. Falcons is the closest-priced matchup at Carolina 58% and Atlanta 43%.