2026-27 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds: David Bailey Leads at 29.1%

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Updated 45 minutes ago · 12:52 PM PDT

With the 2026 NFL preseason underway, David Bailey is the early Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite at 29.1% (+244), followed by Jacob Rodriguez at 19.5% (+413). Traders have put — into this award market across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. The feed updates hourly as roles, playing time and regular-season performances reshape the race.

Largest Spread
7.00%
David Bailey → View arbs
Current Favorite
29.1%
David Bailey +12.6%
30D Volume (Share)
K: — P: — U: —
Momentum Leader
+13.0%
Jacob Rodriguez YTD change

Top prediction apps for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year futures

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:
DB
David Bailey
Vol Spread 9.0%
Agg 29.1%
↑ +12.6%
K 30.0%
P 29.0%
U 21.0%
JR
Jacob Rodriguez
Vol $16.6K Spread
Agg 19.5%
↑ +13.0%
K 19.5%
SS
Sonny Styles
Vol Spread 4.5%
Agg 12.5%
↑ +2.0%
U 16.0%
K 12.5%
P 11.5%
CD
Caleb Downs
Vol Spread 1.8%
Agg 11.5%
↑ +2.0%
U 12.0%
K 11.5%
P 10.2%
RBJ
Rueben Bain Jr.
Vol Spread 4.2%
Agg 10.3%
↓ -6.2%
U 14.0%
K 10.5%
P 9.9%
AR
Arvell Reese
Vol Spread 15.0%
Agg 7.5%
↓ -4.5%
P 22.5%
U 8.0%
K 7.5%
DT
Dillon Thieneman
Vol Spread 2.5%
Agg 6.5%
↑ +4.0%
K 6.5%
U 4.0%
MD
Mansoor Delane
Vol Spread 0.5%
Agg 6.5%
↑ +1.0%
P 7.0%
U 7.0%
K 6.5%
ML
Malachi Lawrence
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 3.8%
↑ +0.3%
P 3.8%
AM
Akheem Mesidor
Vol Spread 1.5%
Agg 1.5%
↓ -6.3%
U 3.0%
P 2.9%
K 1.5%
CH
Cashius Howell
Vol Spread 1.5%
Agg 1.5%
↓ -1.0%
U 3.0%
K 1.5%
BC
Brandon Cisse
Vol Spread 1.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -3.3%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
CB
Caleb Banks
Vol Spread 1.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -1.0%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
CA
CJ Allen
Vol Spread 1.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -0.5%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
DAP
D'Angelo Ponds
Vol Spread 1.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -0.5%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
JM
Jermod McCoy
Vol Spread 0.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -0.5%
K 1.0%
U 1.0%
KF
Keldric Faulk
Vol Spread 1.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -0.5%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
PW
Peter Woods
Vol Spread 2.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -1.5%
U 3.0%
K 1.0%
ZY
Zion Young
Vol Spread 1.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -0.5%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
CH
Colton Hood
Vol Spread 1.5%
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
EMW
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
Vol Spread 1.5%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -2.5%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
KM
Kayden McDonald
Vol Spread 1.5%
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
TCW
Tie/Co-Winners
Vol $78 Spread
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketPolymarket US
DB
David Bailey
29.1%
↑ +12.6%
9.0%
Kalshi 30.0%
23–37¢ Vol $10.9K
Polymarket 29.0%
28–30¢ Vol $2.0K
Polymarket US 21.0%
20–21¢
JR
Jacob Rodriguez
19.5%
↑ +13.0%
$16.6K
Kalshi 19.5%
19–20¢ Vol $16.6K
Polymarket
Polymarket US
SS
Sonny Styles
12.5%
↑ +2.0%
4.5%
Kalshi 12.5%
11–14¢ Vol $5.9K
Polymarket 11.5%
11–12¢ Vol $606
Polymarket US 16.0%
15–16¢
CD
Caleb Downs
11.5%
↑ +2.0%
1.8%
Kalshi 11.5%
11–12¢ Vol $14.6K
Polymarket 10.2%
8.6–11.8¢ Vol $600
Polymarket US 12.0%
11–12¢
RBJ
Rueben Bain Jr.
10.3%
↓ -6.2%
4.2%
Kalshi 10.5%
10–11¢ Vol $14.6K
Polymarket 9.9%
9.7–10¢ Vol $1.1K
Polymarket US 14.0%
13–14¢
AR
Arvell Reese
7.5%
↓ -4.5%
15.0%
Kalshi 7.5%
7–8¢ Vol $5.9K
Polymarket 22.5%
7–38¢ Vol $520
Polymarket US 8.0%
7–8¢
DT
Dillon Thieneman
6.5%
↑ +4.0%
2.5%
Kalshi 6.5%
1–12¢ Vol $2.9K
Polymarket
Polymarket US 4.0%
2–4¢
MD
Mansoor Delane
6.5%
↑ +1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 6.5%
6–7¢ Vol $6.4K
Polymarket 7.0%
5–9¢ Vol $60
Polymarket US 7.0%
6–7¢
ML
Malachi Lawrence
3.8%
↑ +0.3%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 3.8%
0.7–6.9¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
AM
Akheem Mesidor
1.5%
↓ -6.3%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%
1–2¢ Vol $2.3K
Polymarket 2.9%
0.3–5.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 3.0%
2–3¢
CH
Cashius Howell
1.5%
↓ -1.0%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%
1–2¢ Vol $13.7K
Polymarket
Polymarket US 3.0%
2–3¢
BC
Brandon Cisse
1.0%
↓ -3.3%
1.0%
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $1.9K
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
CB
Caleb Banks
1.0%
↓ -1.0%
1.0%
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $744
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
CA
CJ Allen
1.0%
↓ -0.5%
1.0%
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $896
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
DAP
D'Angelo Ponds
1.0%
↓ -0.5%
1.0%
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $640
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
JM
Jermod McCoy
1.0%
↓ -0.5%
0.0%
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $610
Polymarket
Polymarket US 1.0%
KF
Keldric Faulk
1.0%
↓ -0.5%
1.0%
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $1.1K
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
PW
Peter Woods
1.0%
↓ -1.5%
2.0%
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $1.3K
Polymarket
Polymarket US 3.0%
2–3¢
ZY
Zion Young
1.0%
↓ -0.5%
1.0%
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $812
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
CH
Colton Hood
0.5%
— +0.0%
1.5%
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $15
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
EMW
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
0.5%
↓ -2.5%
1.5%
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $484
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
KM
Kayden McDonald
0.5%
— +0.0%
1.5%
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $147
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢
TCW
Tie/Co-Winners
0.5%
— +0.0%
$78
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $78
Polymarket
Polymarket US

Probability Over Time

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Mode:
Average:
Outcome:
Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms
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Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

OutcomeVenue PairLeg A (Buy)Leg B (Sell)Gross SpreadAfter FeesActionableTrade Now
DB
David Bailey
Polymarket US Polymarket
Buy @ U
21¢
Sell @ P
28¢
+7.00%
+7.00%
Yes
SS
Sonny Styles
Polymarket Polymarket US
Buy @ P
12¢
Sell @ U
15¢
+3.00%
+3.00%
Yes
RBJ
Rueben Bain Jr.
Polymarket Polymarket US
Buy @ P
10¢
Sell @ U
13¢
+3.00%
+3.00%
Yes
AM
Akheem Mesidor
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
CH
Cashius Howell
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
PW
Peter Woods
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
CH
Colton Hood
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
EMW
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
KM
Kayden McDonald
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
CD
Caleb Downs
Polymarket Polymarket US
Buy @ P
11.8¢
Sell @ U
11¢
-0.80%
-0.80%
No
AR
Arvell Reese
Polymarket US Polymarket
Buy @ U
Sell @ P
-1.00%
-1.00%
No
JM
Jermod McCoy
Polymarket US Kalshi
Buy @ U
Sell @ K
-1.00%
-1.00%
No
BC
Brandon Cisse
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
-1.00%
-1.07%
No
CB
Caleb Banks
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
-1.00%
-1.07%
No
CA
CJ Allen
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
-1.00%
-1.07%
No
DAP
D'Angelo Ponds
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
-1.00%
-1.07%
No
KF
Keldric Faulk
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
-1.00%
-1.07%
No
ZY
Zion Young
Kalshi Polymarket US
Buy @ K
Sell @ U
-1.00%
-1.07%
No
MD
Mansoor Delane
Polymarket US Kalshi
Buy @ U
Sell @ K
-1.00%
-1.07%
No
DT
Dillon Thieneman
Polymarket US Kalshi
Buy @ U
Sell @ K
-3.00%
-3.07%
No

Outcome Diff

Outcome AOutcome BVenueA OddsB OddsDiffStrategyTrade Now
DB
David Bailey
AM
Akheem Mesidor
Kalshi
A
30.0%
B
1.5%
+28.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
CH
Cashius Howell
Kalshi
A
30.0%
B
1.5%
+28.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
AM
Akheem Mesidor
Polymarket
A
29.0%
B
2.9%
+26.15%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
ML
Malachi Lawrence
Polymarket
A
29.0%
B
3.8%
+25.20%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
DT
Dillon Thieneman
Kalshi
A
30.0%
B
6.5%
+23.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
MD
Mansoor Delane
Kalshi
A
30.0%
B
6.5%
+23.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
AR
Arvell Reese
Kalshi
A
30.0%
B
7.5%
+22.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
MD
Mansoor Delane
Polymarket
A
29.0%
B
7.0%
+22.00%
Buy spread
AR
Arvell Reese
AM
Akheem Mesidor
Polymarket
A
22.5%
B
2.9%
+19.65%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
RBJ
Rueben Bain Jr.
Kalshi
A
30.0%
B
10.5%
+19.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
RBJ
Rueben Bain Jr.
Polymarket
A
29.0%
B
9.9%
+19.15%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
CD
Caleb Downs
Polymarket
A
29.0%
B
10.2%
+18.80%
Buy spread
AR
Arvell Reese
ML
Malachi Lawrence
Polymarket
A
22.5%
B
3.8%
+18.70%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
CD
Caleb Downs
Kalshi
A
30.0%
B
11.5%
+18.50%
Buy spread
JR
Jacob Rodriguez
AM
Akheem Mesidor
Kalshi
A
19.5%
B
1.5%
+18.00%
Buy spread
JR
Jacob Rodriguez
CH
Cashius Howell
Kalshi
A
19.5%
B
1.5%
+18.00%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
AM
Akheem Mesidor
Polymarket US
A
21.0%
B
3.0%
+18.00%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
CH
Cashius Howell
Polymarket US
A
21.0%
B
3.0%
+18.00%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
PW
Peter Woods
Polymarket US
A
21.0%
B
3.0%
+18.00%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
SS
Sonny Styles
Kalshi
A
30.0%
B
12.5%
+17.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
SS
Sonny Styles
Polymarket
A
29.0%
B
11.5%
+17.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
DT
Dillon Thieneman
Polymarket US
A
21.0%
B
4.0%
+17.00%
Buy spread
AR
Arvell Reese
MD
Mansoor Delane
Polymarket
A
22.5%
B
7.0%
+15.50%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
MD
Mansoor Delane
Polymarket US
A
21.0%
B
7.0%
+14.00%
Buy spread
JR
Jacob Rodriguez
DT
Dillon Thieneman
Kalshi
A
19.5%
B
6.5%
+13.00%
Buy spread
JR
Jacob Rodriguez
MD
Mansoor Delane
Kalshi
A
19.5%
B
6.5%
+13.00%
Buy spread
DB
David Bailey
AR
Arvell Reese
Polymarket US
A
21.0%
B
8.0%
+13.00%
Buy spread
SS
Sonny Styles
AM
Akheem Mesidor
Polymarket US
A
16.0%
B
3.0%
+13.00%
Buy spread
SS
Sonny Styles
CH
Cashius Howell
Polymarket US
A
16.0%
B
3.0%
+13.00%
Buy spread
SS
Sonny Styles
PW
Peter Woods
Polymarket US
A
16.0%
B
3.0%
+13.00%
Buy spread
Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side
Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)
Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side
Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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