Odds on the US Confirming Aliens Exist Before 2027

Do aliens exist? Maybe, maybe not, but traders are betting on it

Betting on whether aliens exist isn’t a fringe curiosity anymore. Trump’s Feb. 20 directive to the Pentagon to begin identifying and releasing government files on UAPs and extraterrestrial life sent Kalshi and Polymarket markets into the spotlight. Kalshi jumped from 17.3% to 28.4% in a single session. Polymarket moved from roughly 11% to the low 20s. Prices have since cooled, but remain well above the 10-15% range that held through most of January.

The alien confirmation market has drawn more volume than many political and economic contracts, fueled by a series of real catalysts: Obama saying aliens are “real” on the No Lie podcast, Trump ordering the Pentagon to release UFO files, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirming the review is underway.

The question driving the market isn’t whether life exists somewhere in the universe. It’s whether anyone in the executive branch will say so on the record before December 31, 2026.

The point spread between Kalshi and Polymarket is unusually wide for a market tracking the same question, and worth understanding before placing a trade. Our alien disclosure tracker aggregates live pricing from both platforms with cross-platform spread data updated daily.

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Both Kalshi and Polymarket have this listed as a binary contract (Yes or No). You’re basically purchasing Yes or No shares priced between $0.01 and $0.99. The price reflects what the market thinks the probability is. If Yes is trading at $0.23, the market is pricing a 23% chance of confirmation. If the event happens, Yes pays $1.00 per share. If it doesn’t, No pays $1.00.

The key benefit, and likely why this market has so much attention right now, is that you can sell your shares at any time. You don’t need to hold until Dec. 31. If purchased shares at 17¢ before Trump’s directive, you could have then sold at 28¢ after the spike, locking in a 65% return.

This is why this market is so interesting for short-term traders. Alien disclosure markets are event-driven, meaning prices spike when someone important says something about UFOs and tend to drift lower once the news cycle moves on. Traders who recognize that pattern can buy the dip and sell the headline without taking a long-term view on whether the government is hiding ET.

Note, this is a very very specific bet. The resolution criteria are stricter than most people assume. For Yes to pay out, a current government official needs to definitively state that extraterrestrial life exists. That bar is why the No side is still heavily favored, even after the biggest news cycle this market has seen.

How does this market resolve/payout?

The resolution criteria are identical on both platforms. The market pays out Yes if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, any of the following individuals or bodies definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists:

The President of the United States. Any member of the Cabinet. Any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Any U.S. federal agency.

Kalshi’s rule set goes further, specifying that qualifying Cabinet members include the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet, plus:

• EPA Administrator
• President’s Chief of Staff
• Director of National Intelligence
• Director of the OMB
• Director of the CIA
• U.S. Trade Representative
• Ambassador to the UN
• Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers
• SBA Administrator
• Director of OSTP

The keyword is “definitively.” This eliminates a wide range of statements that might feel like disclosure but don’t actually qualify.

When Obama said aliens are “real,” he later clarified he meant statistically, given the size of the universe, not that he’d seen evidence during his presidency. His original answer wouldn’t count.

When Trump told agencies to release UAP files, that was an order to review and publish records, not a confirmation that extraterrestrial life exists. Even if Trump’s file review produces unexplained sensor data or footage of unidentified objects, the market will not resolve Yes unless an official makes a very explicit confirmation. File releases and ambiguous acknowledgments of “unexplained phenomena” aren’t enough.

This distinction explains a lot about the pricing and what’s happening to the market. The No side isn’t just betting that aliens don’t exist. It’s betting that no one in the executive branch will say they do on the record in the next ten months. That’s a much easier bet to make.

What’s driving the market pricing

The alien confirmation market launched on Kalshi on December 5, 2025 and opened around 10%. Polymarket’s version went live on November 25, 2025. For the first two months, both markets traded in a narrow band between 10% and 15% with relatively low volume.

That changed in February 2026.

On February 9, Steven Spielberg’s trailer for “Disclosure Day” aired during the Super Bowl. Kalshi reported record trading volume that weekend on alien-adjacent markets, though the price impact on the confirmation contract itself was modest. It’s also why the term was added to Trump’s mention market on the State of the Union.

On February 14, former President Obama appeared on the No Lie podcast with Brian Tyler Cohen. During a rapid-fire lightning round, Cohen asked: “Are aliens real?” Obama answered: “They’re real, but I haven’t seen them, and they’re not being kept in, what is it — Area 51.” When asked what the first question he wanted answered as president, he laughed and said: “Where are the aliens?” Cohen moved on without pressing further, and that clip went viral, spiking the odds.

He later clarified on Instagram that he’d seen no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency and was speaking about the statistical likelihood of life existing somewhere in the universe. The market ticked up a few points but the clarification kept the move contained.

Then on February 20, Trump posted on Truth Social that he would direct the Secretary of Defense and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files on aliens, UAPs, and UFOs. He framed it as a response to “tremendous interest” and took a shot at Obama, suggesting his predecessor had shared classified information.

Both markets spiked. Kalshi ran from 17.3% to 28.4%. Polymarket jumped from around 11% to the low 20s. Combined trading volume surged past $10 million in a matter of days.

On February 23, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon is actively working on the file review. He told reporters he didn’t want to “oversell how much time it will take” but that his team was “digging in” and in “full compliance” with Trump’s instructions.

Since the peak, prices have pulled back considerably and remain relatively flat. The pattern so far has been consistent: prices spike on headlines, then mean-revert as the news cycle moves on and the resolution bar reasserts itself.

Related alien prediction markets

The alien confirmation contract is the highest-volume UAP market, but Kalshi lists several related contracts for traders interested in the broader theme.

• Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027? This is a different question than alien confirmation. File release asks whether new government documents on UAPs will be made public. Given Trump’s directive and Hegseth’s confirmation that a review is underway, Kalshi is pricing Yes at 81% as of late February. The bar is much lower: releasing previously classified materials doesn’t require anyone to say aliens exist. Polymarket has shorter-dated versions of this question with rolling expiration dates.
• Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Interstellar objects are bodies that originate outside our solar system. Unlike alien life, their existence is already established. Astronomers confirmed the first one, ‘Oumuamua, in 2017. This market is about detection and timing, not existential confirmation. Improved telescope infrastructure makes new detections increasingly likely, and Kalshi is pricing Yes above 50%.
• Will Trump visit outer space this year? This one already resolved No on Kalshi, but it shows the range of space-adjacent markets traders are willing to price.
• What will Trump say this week? Kalshi’s weekly mention markets aren’t alien-specific, but they frequently include UFO and disclosure-related terms as tradeable strikes. These markets aren’t guaranteed to run every week, but when they do, they offer a short-term way to trade the news cycle around alien and UAP topics. You can monitor this week’s market on our Trump mentions page.

How likely is alien disclosure?

The honest answer is that the market is pricing this about right, and probably generously.

Every official U.S. government investigation into UAPs has reached the same conclusion. The Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office published its historical record report in March 2024, covering nearly eight decades of sightings dating back to 1945. It found no empirical evidence that any reported UAP represented extraterrestrial technology.

The office’s first director, Sean Kirkpatrick, said after leaving the position that nothing would have made him happier than discovering alien technology, but the evidence wasn’t there. His successor, Jon Kosloski, said in November 2024 that AARO has “discovered no evidence of extraterrestrial beings, activity or technology.” He did acknowledge 21 cases that remain genuinely unexplained and merit further analysis.

On the legislative side, the Schumer-Rounds UAP Disclosure Act has been introduced as an amendment to the NDAA three times: in 2023, 2024, and 2025. It has been either stripped or heavily watered down each time, primarily due to opposition from the House Intelligence Committee.

The version that made it into the FY2024 NDAA had its key provisions removed, including the independent review board and eminent domain authority over recovered materials. The FY2025 version was stripped entirely by the House Rules Committee. Legislative momentum toward forced disclosure has stalled repeatedly.

Trump’s directive is the most significant executive action on the topic to date, but it’s important to understand what it actually is. He ordered agencies to identify and begin releasing files. He did not claim aliens exist. When asked directly aboard Air Force One whether he believes aliens are real, he said, “I don’t know if they’re real or not.” That’s not the language of a president about to confirm extraterrestrial life.

Transparency advocates like former Navy pilot Ryan Graves have cautioned against expecting definitive proof, noting that there’s a difference between releasing files and declassifying them.

The odds on Kalshi’s alien market offer a 3.3-to-1 payout on an event that has no historical precedent and requires a sitting government official to say something no official has ever said. The market is pricing tail risk: a very small but nonzero chance that something in the file review forces an inadvertent confirmation.

That latter scenario is genuinely novel and is probably what separates this market from a baseline probability closer to 5%.

For traders, the next catalysts to watch are any actual file releases from the Pentagon review, the Roswell anniversary in July, and any congressional hearings that surface new testimony. Each of those events will likely create short-term volatility without changing the fundamental picture.

FAQ

What does “confirm aliens exist” mean in prediction markets?

It means a specific government official, including the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs, or a federal agency, issues a definitive public statement confirming extraterrestrial life or technology exists. Speculation, hedged language, or releasing files that are ambiguous do not count.

What happens if the government releases UAP files but doesn’t confirm alien life?

The market resolves No. File releases and alien confirmation are different questions. Even if declassified documents contain unexplained footage or sensor data, the market only pays Yes if an official explicitly says the word: extraterrestrial life exists.

Why are Kalshi and Polymarket prices different for the same question?

The resolution criteria are essentially the same, but the platforms have different trader bases, liquidity profiles, and resolution infrastructure. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where resolution is handled by Kalshi itself. Polymarket uses UMA’s Optimistic Oracle, a token-weighted voting system for settling disputes.

In December 2025, Polymarket had a closely related market, “Will Trump declassify UFO files in 2025?”, that resolved Yes despite no actual declassification documents being released. Whales bought in near 99¢ right before resolution, and the UMA token vote overruled what traders considered to be the obvious outcome. Comment threads called it a scam, and the incident sparked a credibility debate about Polymarket’s dispute resolution process.

It’s possible traders that got burned on a different UFO market may be pricing in oracle risk. The point spread between Kalshi and Polymarket is wider than typical for markets tracking the same question, and the oracle history is the most plausible explanation beyond normal liquidity differences.

When does this market expire?

December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying statement has been made by that time, the market resolves No.

What triggered the recent spike in alien market odds?

Three events in quick succession. Obama said aliens are “real” on the No Lie podcast on February 14. Trump directed agencies to release UAP files on February 20. Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon is actively reviewing files on February 23. Combined, these pushed Kalshi from around 17% to 28% before prices pulled back.

Has the U.S. government ever confirmed alien life?

No. Every official investigation, from Project Blue Book (1952-1969) through AARO’s 2024 historical report, has concluded that no evidence of extraterrestrial origin was found among reported UAP sightings. Individual officials have acknowledged that UAPs are “real” in the sense that unexplained sightings occur, but no one has attributed them to extraterrestrial life or technology in an official capacity.