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Fed Rate Odds for January

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Updated 32 seconds ago · 7:40 PM PST

Will the Fed raise, maintain or lower rates in January? With the FOMC decision just two days away, prediction markets have reached near-unanimous consensus: a 99.4% probability the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The 24-hour volume of $57.1M is dominated by Polymarket ($56.2M), with Kalshi contributing 2.2% ($842.2K). Despite unemployment sitting at a four-year high of 4.6%, the committee appears locked into wait-and-see mode as it weighs tariff pressures against a softening labor market. A surprise cut would be the story - but markets aren't pricing one in. Our FOMC rate tracker aggregates live odds from Kalshi and Polymarket on the probability of an upcoming rate cut or hike. The data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing.

Largest Spread

0.53%

25 bps decrease

Consensus Leader

99.4%

Maintains Rate

24H Volume (Share)

$57.1M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Chart settings

Outcome:

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Maintains Rate

Vol $15.7M Spread 1.5%

Agg 99.4%

↑ +0.4%

P 99.5%

K 98.5%

G 98.0%

F 98.0%

Polymarket 99.5%

Vol $14.9M 99.4–99.5¢

Kalshi 98.5%

Vol $809.1K 98–99¢

Gemini 98.0%

Vol $10.6K 97–99¢

ForecastEx 98.0%

Vol $11.0K 98¢

MT2

More than 25 bps increase

Vol $95 Spread 2.5%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

F 3.0%

K 0.5%

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $95 0–1¢

2BD

25 bps decrease

Vol $9.0M Spread 2.7%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.4%

F 3.0%

G 2.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.4%

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $30 3¢

Gemini 2.0%

Vol $365 1–3¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $29.4K 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $8.9M 0.3–0.4¢

2BI

25 bps increase

Vol $14.8M Spread 2.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.1%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $0 2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1.8K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $14.8M 0.1¢

MT2

More than 25 bps decrease

Vol $17.6M Spread 2.0%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

G 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $0 2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1.8K 0–1¢

Gemini 0.5%

Vol $28 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $17.6M 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	ForecastEx
MR Maintains Rate	99.4% ↑ +0.4%	1.5%	$15.7M	Kalshi 98.5% 98–99¢ Vol $809.1K	Polymarket 99.5% 99.4–99.5¢ Vol $14.9M	Gemini 98.0% 97–99¢ Vol $10.6K	ForecastEx 98.0% 98¢ Vol $11.0K
MT2 More than 25 bps increase	0.5% — +0.0%	2.5%	$95	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $95	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
2BD 25 bps decrease	0.4% ↓ -0.4%	2.7%	$9.0M	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $29.4K	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $8.9M	Gemini 2.0% 1–3¢ Vol $365	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $30
2BI 25 bps increase	0.1% ↓ -0.1%	2.0%	$14.8M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $14.8M	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢ Vol $0
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease	0.1% — +0.0%	2.0%	$17.6M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $17.6M	Gemini 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $28	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢ Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
2BD 25 bps decrease	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
MR Maintains Rate	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 99¢	Sell @ P 99.4¢	+0.40%	-0.59%	No
2BI 25 bps increase	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
MR Maintains Rate	2BI 25 bps increase	Polymarket	A 99.45%	B 0.05%	+99.40%	Buy spread
MR Maintains Rate	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease	Polymarket	A 99.45%	B 0.05%	+99.40%	Buy spread
MR Maintains Rate	2BD 25 bps decrease	Polymarket	A 99.45%	B 0.35%	+99.10%	Buy spread
MR Maintains Rate	MT2 More than 25 bps increase	Kalshi	A 98.50%	B 0.50%	+98.00%	Buy spread
MR Maintains Rate	2BI 25 bps increase	Kalshi	A 98.50%	B 0.50%	+98.00%	Buy spread
MR Maintains Rate	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease	Kalshi	A 98.50%	B 0.50%	+98.00%	Buy spread
MR Maintains Rate	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease	Gemini	A 98.00%	B 0.50%	+97.50%	Buy spread
MR Maintains Rate	2BD 25 bps decrease	Kalshi	A 98.50%	B 1.50%	+97.00%	Buy spread
MR Maintains Rate	2BD 25 bps decrease	Gemini	A 98.00%	B 2.00%	+96.00%	Buy spread
2BD 25 bps decrease	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease	Gemini	A 2.00%	B 0.50%	+1.50%	Buy spread
2BD 25 bps decrease	MT2 More than 25 bps increase	Kalshi	A 1.50%	B 0.50%	+1.00%	Buy spread
2BD 25 bps decrease	2BI 25 bps increase	Kalshi	A 1.50%	B 0.50%	+1.00%	Buy spread
2BD 25 bps decrease	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease	Kalshi	A 1.50%	B 0.50%	+1.00%	Buy spread
2BD 25 bps decrease	2BI 25 bps increase	Polymarket	A 0.35%	B 0.05%	+0.30%	Buy spread
2BD 25 bps decrease	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease	Polymarket	A 0.35%	B 0.05%	+0.30%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.