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Fed Decision Odds for January

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Updated 28 minutes ago · 5:41 PM PST

Following a weak jobs report showing unemployment at a four-year high of 4.6%, prediction markets firmly expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates unchanged at its January 27-28 meeting, with no change sitting at 78.6% probability (-367 odds). A 25 basis point decrease stands at just 19.5% (+413), while deeper cuts remain unlikely at 1.5% (+6567) for 50+ basis points. With the Fed having just cut rates by 25bp in December to 3.50%-3.75%, the committee appears to be in wait-and-see mode as it assesses how tariff pressures and a softening labor market will shape inflation expectations into 2026. Our Fed rate tracker aggregates live odds from Kalshi and Polymarket on the probability of an upcoming rate cut or hike. The data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing.

📊 Trade on Kalshi 📈 Trade on Polymarket ♊️ Trade on Gemini

Largest Spread

-0.25%

Maintains Rate

Consensus Leader

89.4%

Maintains Rate

24H Volume (Share)

$9.9M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Chart settings

Outcome:

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Maintains Rate

Vol $941.7K Spread 2.5%

Agg 89.4%

↓ -0.1%

G 91.0%

P 89.5%

K 88.5%

Gemini 91.0%

Vol $258 90–92¢

Polymarket 89.5%

Vol $850.4K 89–90¢

Kalshi 88.5%

Vol $91.0K 88–89¢

2BD

25 bps decrease

Vol $734.3K Spread 1.5%

Agg 9.5%

↓ -1.0%

G 11.0%

K 10.5%

P 9.5%

Gemini 11.0%

Vol $375 10–12¢

Kalshi 10.5%

Vol $12.4K 10–11¢

Polymarket 9.5%

Vol $721.6K 9–10¢

MT2

More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)

Vol $5.5M Spread 1.0%

Agg 0.6%

↓ -0.1%

K 1.5%

G 1.5%

P 0.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $1.3K 1–2¢

Gemini 1.5%

Vol $31 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $5.5M 0.5–0.6¢

MT2

More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps)

Vol $8 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $8 0–1¢

2BI

25 bps increase

Vol $2.8M Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $64 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $2.8M 0.3–0.4¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
MR Maintains Rate	89.4% ↓ -0.1%	2.5%	$941.7K	Kalshi 88.5% 88–89¢ Vol $91.0K	Polymarket 89.5% 89–90¢ Vol $850.4K	Gemini 91.0% 90–92¢ Vol $258
2BD 25 bps decrease	9.5% ↓ -1.0%	1.5%	$734.3K	Kalshi 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $12.4K	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $721.6K	Gemini 11.0% 10–12¢ Vol $375
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	0.6% ↓ -0.1%	1.0%	$5.5M	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $1.3K	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $5.5M	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $31
MT2 More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps)	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$8	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $8	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0
2BI 25 bps increase	0.4% — +0.0%	0.2%	$2.8M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $64	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $2.8M	Gemini — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Quick Links
MR Maintains Rate	Kalshi → Gemini	Buy @ K 89¢	Sell @ G 90¢	+1.00%	-0.25%	No	K ↗︎ G ↗︎
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
2BD 25 bps decrease	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 10¢	Sell @ K 10¢	+0.00%	-0.10%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
2BI 25 bps increase	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.40%	-0.40%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Quick Link
MR Maintains Rate	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	Gemini	A 91.00%	B 1.50%	+89.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Maintains Rate	2BI 25 bps increase	Polymarket	A 89.50%	B 0.35%	+89.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Maintains Rate	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	Polymarket	A 89.50%	B 0.55%	+88.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Maintains Rate	MT2 More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps)	Kalshi	A 88.50%	B 0.50%	+88.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Maintains Rate	2BI 25 bps increase	Kalshi	A 88.50%	B 0.50%	+88.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Maintains Rate	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	Kalshi	A 88.50%	B 1.50%	+87.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Maintains Rate	2BD 25 bps decrease	Polymarket	A 89.50%	B 9.50%	+80.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Maintains Rate	2BD 25 bps decrease	Gemini	A 91.00%	B 11.00%	+80.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Maintains Rate	2BD 25 bps decrease	Kalshi	A 88.50%	B 10.50%	+78.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
2BD 25 bps decrease	MT2 More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps)	Kalshi	A 10.50%	B 0.50%	+10.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
2BD 25 bps decrease	2BI 25 bps increase	Kalshi	A 10.50%	B 0.50%	+10.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
2BD 25 bps decrease	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	Gemini	A 11.00%	B 1.50%	+9.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
2BD 25 bps decrease	2BI 25 bps increase	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 0.35%	+9.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
2BD 25 bps decrease	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	Kalshi	A 10.50%	B 1.50%	+9.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
2BD 25 bps decrease	MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 0.55%	+8.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	MT2 More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps)	Kalshi	A 1.50%	B 0.50%	+1.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	2BI 25 bps increase	Kalshi	A 1.50%	B 0.50%	+1.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps)	2BI 25 bps increase	Polymarket	A 0.55%	B 0.35%	+0.20%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.