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2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

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Updated 27 minutes ago · 5:41 PM PST

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee odds at 36% probability, down slightly from 37% as rivals plot to undermine his frontrunner status. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 10.5% (+809) while Vice President Kamala Harris has climbed to 5.3% (+1800). Harris's odds ticked up following her DNC winter meeting speech unveiling new 'both parties failed' message.Our Democratic nominee odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket to show consensus probabilities across both prediction markets. This data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).

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Largest Spread

2.23%

Gretchen Whitmer → View arbs

Consensus Leader

36.4%

Gavin Newsom

24H Volume (Share)

$3.8M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Gavin Newsom

Vol $112.4K Spread 2.0%

Agg 36.4%

— +0.0%

California Governor

P 36.5%

K 34.5%

Polymarket 36.5%

Vol $108.3K 36–37¢

Kalshi 34.5%

Vol $4.1K 34–35¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $9.9K Spread 1.0%

Agg 10.3%

↓ -0.7%

NY Representative

P 10.5%

K 9.5%

Polymarket 10.5%

Vol $8.2K 10–11¢

Kalshi 9.5%

Vol $1.7K 9–10¢

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $5.5K Spread 0.0%

Agg 4.5%

— +0.0%

K 4.5%

P 4.5%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $74 4–5¢

Polymarket 4.5%

Vol $5.5K 4–5¢

Josh Shapiro

Vol $6.9K Spread 2.3%

Agg 4.3%

↓ -0.1%

K 6.5%

P 4.3%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $233 6–7¢

Polymarket 4.3%

Vol $6.6K 4.2–4.3¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $12.8K Spread 1.9%

Agg 3.7%

— +0.0%

K 5.5%

P 3.7%

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $346 5–6¢

Polymarket 3.7%

Vol $12.4K 3.6–3.7¢

Jon Ossoff

Vol $38.7K Spread 2.5%

Agg 3.1%

— +0.0%

K 5.5%

P 3.1%

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $108 5–6¢

Polymarket 3.1%

Vol $38.5K 3–3.1¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $21.8K Spread 2.4%

Agg 2.1%

↓ -0.2%

K 4.5%

P 2.1%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $596 4–5¢

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $21.2K 2–2.1¢

Wes Moore

Vol $15.8K Spread 1.5%

Agg 2.1%

↓ -0.2%

K 3.5%

P 2.1%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $209 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $15.6K 2–2.1¢

Mark Kelly

Vol $27.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 2.1%

↑ +0.1%

K 2.5%

P 2.1%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $991 2–3¢

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $26.1K 2–2.1¢

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $12.4K Spread 1.7%

Agg 2.0%

— +0.0%

K 3.5%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $1.5K 3–4¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $10.9K 1.8–1.9¢

Ro Khanna

Vol $164.1K Spread 0.8%

Agg 1.7%

↓ -0.1%

K 2.5%

P 1.7%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $245 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $163.8K 1.6–1.8¢

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $16.1K Spread 2.8%

Agg 1.7%

↓ -0.1%

K 4.5%

P 1.7%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $13 4–5¢

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $16.1K 1.6–1.7¢

Rahm Emanuel

Vol $9.3K Spread 0.0%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -0.2%

K 1.5%

P 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $191 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $9.2K 1.4–1.5¢

John Fetterman

Vol $84.2K Spread 0.8%

Agg 1.2%

— +0.0%

P 1.3%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $84.1K 1.2–1.3¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $16 0–1¢

Ruben Gallego

Vol $26.3K Spread 1.7%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.2%

K 2.5%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $27 2–3¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $26.2K 0.8–0.9¢

Lebron James

Vol $50.5K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $50.5K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Dwayne Johnson

Vol $21.5K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $21.5K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $3 0–1¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $58.2K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $58.1K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $50 0–1¢

Roy Cooper

Vol $71.8K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $71.8K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Mark Cuban

Vol $32.7K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $32.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $5 0–1¢

Jared Polis

Vol $122.3K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $122.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Jon Stewart

Vol $25.2K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.1%

Comedian

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $82 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $25.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Cory Booker

Vol $39.5K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $27 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $39.4K 0.6–0.7¢

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $498.0K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $35 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $497.9K 0.6–0.7¢

Chris Murphy

Vol $61.5K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $61.5K 0.6–0.7¢

BOR

Beto O’Rourke

Vol $26.7K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $26.7K 0.6–0.7¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $17.5K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $17.5K 0.6–0.7¢

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $18.4K Spread 1.0%

Agg 0.6%

— +0.0%

NYC Mayor

K 1.5%

P 0.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $14 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $18.4K 0.5–0.6¢

Raphael Warnock

Vol $23.0K Spread 1.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $23.0K 0.5–0.6¢

Phil Murphy

Vol $64.7K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $64.7K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Liz Cheney

Vol $50.1K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $50.1K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Hunter Biden

Vol $32.2K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $32.2K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Barack Obama

Vol $43.9K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $43.9K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

George Clooney

Vol $570.8K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $570.8K 0.5–0.6¢

Jasmine Crockett

Vol $82.0K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $82.0K 0.5–0.6¢

James Talarico

Vol $12 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $12 0–1¢

Jamie Dimon

Vol $35 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $35 0–1¢

Elissa Slotkin

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Tim Walz

Vol $96.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $5 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $96.8K 0.4–0.5¢

Gina Raimondo

Vol $35.7K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $35.7K 0.4–0.5¢

Bernie Sanders

Vol $104.7K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $5 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $104.7K 0.4–0.5¢

Hilary Clinton

Vol $105.3K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $105.3K 0.4–0.5¢

Chelsea Clinton

Vol $50.2K Spread —

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $50.2K 0.4–0.5¢

MrBeast

Vol $168.5K Spread —

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $168.5K 0.4–0.5¢

Oprah Winfrey

Vol $321.4K Spread —

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $321.4K 0.4–0.5¢

Andrew Yang

Vol $417.8K Spread —

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $417.8K 0.4–0.5¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	36.4% — +0.0%	2.0%	$112.4K	Kalshi 34.5% 34–35¢ Vol $4.1K	Polymarket 36.5% 36–37¢ Vol $108.3K
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	10.3% ↓ -0.7%	1.0%	$9.9K	Kalshi 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $1.7K	Polymarket 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $8.2K
PB Pete Buttigieg	4.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$5.5K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $74	Polymarket 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $5.5K
JS Josh Shapiro	4.3% ↓ -0.1%	2.3%	$6.9K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $233	Polymarket 4.3% 4.2–4.3¢ Vol $6.6K
KH Kamala Harris	3.7% — +0.0%	1.9%	$12.8K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $346	Polymarket 3.7% 3.6–3.7¢ Vol $12.4K
JO Jon Ossoff	3.1% — +0.0%	2.5%	$38.7K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $108	Polymarket 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $38.5K
AB Andy Beshear	2.1% ↓ -0.2%	2.4%	$21.8K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $596	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $21.2K
WM Wes Moore	2.1% ↓ -0.2%	1.5%	$15.8K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $209	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $15.6K
MK Mark Kelly	2.1% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$27.1K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $991	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $26.1K
JBP J.B. Pritzker	2.0% — +0.0%	1.7%	$12.4K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $10.9K
RK Ro Khanna	1.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.8%	$164.1K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $245	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.8¢ Vol $163.8K
GW Gretchen Whitmer	1.7% ↓ -0.1%	2.8%	$16.1K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $13	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $16.1K
RE Rahm Emanuel	1.5% ↓ -0.2%	0.0%	$9.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $191	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $9.2K
JF John Fetterman	1.2% — +0.0%	0.8%	$84.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $16	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $84.1K
RG Ruben Gallego	0.9% ↓ -0.2%	1.7%	$26.3K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $27	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $26.2K
LJ Lebron James	0.9% — +0.0%	0.4%	$50.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $50.5K
DJ Dwayne Johnson	0.9% ↓ -0.1%	0.4%	$21.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $21.5K
MO Michelle Obama	0.8% — +0.0%	0.4%	$58.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $50	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $58.1K
RC Roy Cooper	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$71.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $71.8K
MC Mark Cuban	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$32.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $32.7K
JP Jared Polis	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	0.2%	$122.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $122.3K
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.9%	$25.2K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $82	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $25.1K
CB Cory Booker	0.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$39.5K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $27	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $39.4K
SAS Stephen A. Smith	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	0.9%	$498.0K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $35	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $497.9K
CM Chris Murphy	0.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$61.5K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $61.5K
BOR Beto O’Rourke	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$26.7K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $26.7K
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$17.5K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $17.5K
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	0.6% — +0.0%	1.0%	$18.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $14	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $18.4K
RW Raphael Warnock	0.5% — +0.0%	1.0%	$23.0K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $23.0K
PM Phil Murphy	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$64.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $64.7K
LC Liz Cheney	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$50.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $50.1K
HB Hunter Biden	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$32.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $32.2K
BO Barack Obama	0.5% ↓ -0.1%	0.0%	$43.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $43.9K
GC George Clooney	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$570.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $570.8K
JC Jasmine Crockett	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$82.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $82.0K
JT James Talarico	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$12	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $12	Polymarket — — Vol $0
JD Jamie Dimon	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$35	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $35	Polymarket — — Vol $0
ES Elissa Slotkin	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0
TW Tim Walz	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$96.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $96.8K
GR Gina Raimondo	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$35.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $35.7K
BS Bernie Sanders	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$104.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $104.7K
HC Hilary Clinton	0.4% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$105.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $105.3K
CC Chelsea Clinton	0.4% ↓ -0.1%	—	$50.2K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $50.2K
MR MrBeast	0.4% — +0.0%	—	$168.5K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $168.5K
OW Oprah Winfrey	0.4% — +0.0%	—	$321.4K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $321.4K
AY Andrew Yang	0.4% — +0.0%	—	$417.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $417.8K

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Quick Links
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.7¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+2.30%	+2.23%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.1¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+1.90%	+1.83%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+1.90%	+1.83%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.3¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+1.70%	+1.63%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.7¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+1.30%	+1.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 35¢	Sell @ P 36¢	+1.00%	+0.65%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RW Raphael Warnock	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CB Cory Booker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CM Chris Murphy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RK Ro Khanna	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.8¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JF John Fetterman	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.2¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 10¢	Sell @ P 10¢	+0.00%	-0.10%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
LJ Lebron James	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
DJ Dwayne Johnson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MO Michelle Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RC Roy Cooper	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MC Mark Cuban	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JP Jared Polis	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RE Rahm Emanuel	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PM Phil Murphy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
LC Liz Cheney	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
HB Hunter Biden	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BO Barack Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TW Tim Walz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GR Gina Raimondo	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BS Bernie Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
HC Hilary Clinton	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 5¢	Sell @ P 4¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Quick Link
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 1.85%	+34.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 2.05%	+34.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	WM Wes Moore	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 2.05%	+34.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 2.05%	+34.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 3.05%	+33.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 3.65%	+32.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 4.25%	+32.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 4.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 3.50%	+31.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 3.50%	+31.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 4.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 4.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	GW Gretchen Whitmer	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 4.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 5.50%	+29.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 5.50%	+29.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 6.50%	+28.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 10.50%	+26.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 34.50%	B 9.50%	+25.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 1.85%	+8.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.05%	+8.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	WM Wes Moore	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.05%	+8.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.05%	+8.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 3.05%	+7.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 3.65%	+6.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 4.25%	+6.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 3.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 3.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 4.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 4.50%	+5.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 4.50%	+5.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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