Home | Prediction Markets | 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee

2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

LIVE

Updated 32 minutes ago · 1:40 AM PDT

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee odds at 36% probability, down slightly from 37% as rivals plot to undermine his frontrunner status. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 10.5% (+809) while Vice President Kamala Harris has climbed to 5.3% (+1800). Harris's odds ticked up following her DNC winter meeting speech unveiling new 'both parties failed' message. Our Democratic nominee odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket to show consensus probabilities across both prediction markets. This data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).

Largest Spread

2.23%

Gavin Newsom → View arbs

Consensus Leader

24.6%

Gavin Newsom 10.3%

24H Volume (Share)

$4.9M

Momentum Leader

+2.0%

Beshear YTD change

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Gavin Newsom

Vol $225.0K Spread 5.5%

Agg 24.6%

↓ -10.3%

California Governor

F 30.0%

K 27.5%

P 24.5%

ForecastEx 30.0%

Vol $0 30¢

Kalshi 27.5%

Vol $8.9K 27–28¢

Polymarket 24.5%

Vol $216.1K 24.4–24.5¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $51.4K Spread 4.5%

Agg 8.6%

↓ -3.8%

NY Representative

F 13.0%

P 8.6%

K 8.5%

ForecastEx 13.0%

Vol $0 13¢

Polymarket 8.6%

Vol $48.3K 8.6–8.7¢

Kalshi 8.5%

Vol $3.1K 8–9¢

Beshear

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

↑ +2.0%

F 7.0%

ForecastEx 7.0%

Vol $0 7¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $170.0K Spread 6.5%

Agg 5.6%

↑ +1.7%

F 12.0%

K 6.5%

P 5.6%

ForecastEx 12.0%

Vol $0 12¢

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $197 6–7¢

Polymarket 5.6%

Vol $169.8K 5.5–5.6¢

Jon Ossoff

Vol $25.3K Spread 1.5%

Agg 5.1%

↑ +1.4%

K 6.5%

P 5.1%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $106 6–7¢

Polymarket 5.1%

Vol $25.2K 5–5.1¢

Josh Shapiro

Vol $48.7K Spread 7.1%

Agg 4.0%

↓ -1.4%

F 11.0%

K 6.5%

P 4.0%

ForecastEx 11.0%

Vol $0 11¢

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $961 6–7¢

Polymarket 4.0%

Vol $47.7K 3.9–4¢

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $92.8K Spread 4.5%

Agg 3.5%

↓ -1.1%

F 8.0%

P 3.6%

K 3.5%

ForecastEx 8.0%

Vol $0 8¢

Polymarket 3.6%

Vol $91.4K 3.5–3.6¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $1.4K 3–4¢

Mark Kelly

Vol $56.3K Spread 0.9%

Agg 2.7%

↑ +0.8%

K 3.5%

P 2.7%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $807 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.7%

Vol $55.5K 2.6–2.7¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $296.8K Spread 0.9%

Agg 2.6%

↓ -2.2%

K 3.5%

P 2.6%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $1.5K 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.6%

Vol $295.3K 2.5–2.7¢

James Talarico

Vol $733 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↑ +2.0%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $733 2–3¢

Jon Stewart

Vol $27.9K Spread 0.3%

Agg 2.3%

↑ +1.4%

Comedian

K 2.5%

P 2.3%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $18 2–3¢

Polymarket 2.3%

Vol $27.9K 2.2–2.3¢

Ruben Gallego

Vol $9.3K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.9%

↑ +0.8%

K 2.5%

P 1.9%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $25 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.9%

Vol $9.3K 1.8–2¢

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $122.2K Spread 2.7%

Agg 1.9%

↓ -0.3%

K 4.5%

F 4.0%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $62 4–5¢

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $122.1K 1.8–1.9¢

Ro Khanna

Vol $12.4K Spread 0.8%

Agg 1.7%

↑ +0.5%

K 2.5%

P 1.7%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $485 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $11.9K 1.6–1.8¢

Wes Moore

Vol $288.0K Spread 2.4%

Agg 1.6%

↓ -0.8%

F 4.0%

K 3.5%

P 1.6%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $84 3–4¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $287.9K 1.5–1.7¢

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $12.4K Spread 2.6%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -3.1%

F 4.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.5%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $111 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $12.3K 1.4–1.5¢

Rahm Emanuel

Vol $26.3K Spread 1.2%

Agg 1.4%

↓ -0.5%

K 2.5%

P 1.4%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $1.5K 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $24.8K 1.3–1.4¢

Dwayne Johnson

Vol $7.6K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.3%

↑ +0.1%

P 1.4%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $7.6K 1.3–1.4¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $7 0–1¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $17.9K Spread 0.8%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.3%

P 1.3%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $17.8K 1.2–1.3¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $32 0–1¢

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $29.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.2%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $61 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $29.5K 1.1–1.2¢

Cory Booker

Vol $19.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.4%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $18 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $19.6K 1.1–1.2¢

Gina Raimondo

Vol $45.7K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.6%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $45.7K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Phil Murphy

Vol $14.5K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.5%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $14.5K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $28.3K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.5%

NYC Mayor

K 1.5%

P 1.1%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $28.3K 1–1.1¢

Chris Murphy

Vol $25.4K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.3%

K 1.5%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $35 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $25.3K 0.9–1¢

Andrew Yang

Vol $194.9K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $194.9K 0.9–1¢

Barack Obama

Vol $63.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.3%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $63.8K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

John Fetterman

Vol $112.4K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.3%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $112.4K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Lebron James

Vol $106.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.1%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $106.8K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

MrBeast

Vol $60.7K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $60.7K 0.9–1¢

Mark Cuban

Vol $78.0K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $77.9K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $38 0–1¢

BOR

Beto O’Rourke

Vol $127.4K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $127.4K 0.8–0.9¢

Hilary Clinton

Vol $58.9K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $58.9K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Hunter Biden

Vol $85.7K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $85.7K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $32.2K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $32.2K 0.8–0.9¢

Liz Cheney

Vol $203.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $203.6K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Roy Cooper

Vol $36.3K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $36.3K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $23 0–1¢

Raphael Warnock

Vol $37.3K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $37 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $37.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Bernie Sanders

Vol $347.8K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $347.8K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Chelsea Clinton

Vol $300.5K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $300.5K 0.7–0.8¢

George Clooney

Vol $69.4K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $69.4K 0.7–0.8¢

Jasmine Crockett

Vol $729.4K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $729.4K 0.7–0.8¢

Jared Polis

Vol $101.5K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $101.5K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $25 0–1¢

Oprah Winfrey

Vol $237.8K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $237.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Tim Walz

Vol $266.5K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $266.5K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Elissa Slotkin

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Jamie Dimon

Vol $23 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $23 0–1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	24.6% ↓ -10.3%	5.5%	$225.0K	Kalshi 27.5% 27–28¢ Vol $8.9K	Polymarket 24.5% 24.4–24.5¢ Vol $216.1K	ForecastEx 30.0% 30¢ Vol $0
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	8.6% ↓ -3.8%	4.5%	$51.4K	Kalshi 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $3.1K	Polymarket 8.6% 8.6–8.7¢ Vol $48.3K	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $0
BE Beshear	7.0% ↑ +2.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
KH Kamala Harris	5.6% ↑ +1.7%	6.5%	$170.0K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $197	Polymarket 5.6% 5.5–5.6¢ Vol $169.8K	ForecastEx 12.0% 12¢ Vol $0
JO Jon Ossoff	5.1% ↑ +1.4%	1.5%	$25.3K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $106	Polymarket 5.1% 5–5.1¢ Vol $25.2K	ForecastEx — —
JS Josh Shapiro	4.0% ↓ -1.4%	7.1%	$48.7K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $961	Polymarket 4.0% 3.9–4¢ Vol $47.7K	ForecastEx 11.0% 11¢ Vol $0
PB Pete Buttigieg	3.5% ↓ -1.1%	4.5%	$92.8K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket 3.6% 3.5–3.6¢ Vol $91.4K	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $0
MK Mark Kelly	2.7% ↑ +0.8%	0.9%	$56.3K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $807	Polymarket 2.7% 2.6–2.7¢ Vol $55.5K	ForecastEx — —
AB Andy Beshear	2.6% ↓ -2.2%	0.9%	$296.8K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 2.6% 2.5–2.7¢ Vol $295.3K	ForecastEx — —
JT James Talarico	2.5% ↑ +2.0%	—	$733	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $733	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	2.3% ↑ +1.4%	0.3%	$27.9K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $18	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $27.9K	ForecastEx — —
RG Ruben Gallego	1.9% ↑ +0.8%	0.6%	$9.3K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $25	Polymarket 1.9% 1.8–2¢ Vol $9.3K	ForecastEx — —
JBP J.B. Pritzker	1.9% ↓ -0.3%	2.7%	$122.2K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $62	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $122.1K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
RK Ro Khanna	1.7% ↑ +0.5%	0.8%	$12.4K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $485	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.8¢ Vol $11.9K	ForecastEx — —
WM Wes Moore	1.6% ↓ -0.8%	2.4%	$288.0K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $84	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.7¢ Vol $287.9K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
GW Gretchen Whitmer	1.5% ↓ -3.1%	2.6%	$12.4K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $111	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $12.3K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
RE Rahm Emanuel	1.4% ↓ -0.5%	1.2%	$26.3K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $24.8K	ForecastEx — —
DJ Dwayne Johnson	1.3% ↑ +0.1%	0.9%	$7.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $7	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $7.6K	ForecastEx — —
MO Michelle Obama	1.2% ↑ +0.3%	0.8%	$17.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $32	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $17.8K	ForecastEx — —
SAS Stephen A. Smith	1.2% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$29.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $61	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $29.5K	ForecastEx — —
CB Cory Booker	1.2% ↑ +0.4%	0.4%	$19.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $18	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $19.6K	ForecastEx — —
GR Gina Raimondo	1.1% ↑ +0.6%	0.6%	$45.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $45.7K	ForecastEx — —
PM Phil Murphy	1.1% ↑ +0.5%	0.6%	$14.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $14.5K	ForecastEx — —
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	1.1% ↑ +0.5%	0.4%	$28.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $28.3K	ForecastEx — —
CM Chris Murphy	1.0% ↑ +0.3%	0.5%	$25.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $35	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $25.3K	ForecastEx — —
AY Andrew Yang	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	—	$194.9K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $194.9K	ForecastEx — —
BO Barack Obama	1.0% ↑ +0.3%	0.4%	$63.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $63.8K	ForecastEx — —
JF John Fetterman	1.0% ↓ -0.3%	0.4%	$112.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $112.4K	ForecastEx — —
LJ Lebron James	1.0% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$106.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $106.8K	ForecastEx — —
MR MrBeast	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	—	$60.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $60.7K	ForecastEx — —
MC Mark Cuban	0.9% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$78.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $38	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $77.9K	ForecastEx — —
BOR Beto O’Rourke	0.9% — +0.0%	—	$127.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $127.4K	ForecastEx — —
HC Hilary Clinton	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	0.4%	$58.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $58.9K	ForecastEx — —
HB Hunter Biden	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	0.4%	$85.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $85.7K	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.9% ↑ +0.2%	—	$32.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $32.2K	ForecastEx — —
LC Liz Cheney	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	0.4%	$203.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $203.6K	ForecastEx — —
RC Roy Cooper	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$36.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $23	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $36.3K	ForecastEx — —
RW Raphael Warnock	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.8%	$37.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $37	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $37.3K	ForecastEx — —
BS Bernie Sanders	0.8% ↑ +0.3%	0.2%	$347.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $347.8K	ForecastEx — —
CC Chelsea Clinton	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	—	$300.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $300.5K	ForecastEx — —
GC George Clooney	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	—	$69.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $69.4K	ForecastEx — —
JC Jasmine Crockett	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	—	$729.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $729.4K	ForecastEx — —
JP Jared Polis	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	0.2%	$101.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $25	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $101.5K	ForecastEx — —
OW Oprah Winfrey	0.7% ↑ +0.2%	—	$237.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $237.8K	ForecastEx — —
TW Tim Walz	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.1%	$266.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $266.5K	ForecastEx — —
ES Elissa Slotkin	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
JD Jamie Dimon	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$23	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $23	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 24.5¢	Sell @ K 27¢	+2.50%	+2.23%	Yes
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+2.10%	+2.03%	Yes
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+2.00%	+1.93%	Yes
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.7¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.30%	+1.23%	No
JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5.1¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No
RE Rahm Emanuel	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5.6¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.7¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.7¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
DJ Dwayne Johnson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
RK Ro Khanna	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.8¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
MO Michelle Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.2¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
RW Raphael Warnock	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
GR Gina Raimondo	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
PM Phil Murphy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
CM Chris Murphy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
BO Barack Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
JF John Fetterman	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
LJ Lebron James	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
MC Mark Cuban	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
CB Cory Booker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
HC Hilary Clinton	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
HB Hunter Biden	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
LC Liz Cheney	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
RC Roy Cooper	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
BS Bernie Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
JP Jared Polis	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 9¢	Sell @ P 8.6¢	-0.40%	-0.49%	No
PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 4¢	Sell @ P 3.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 3.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 3.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 3.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 3.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 4.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 1.9%	+22.55%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 2.3%	+22.20%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 2.6%	+21.85%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 2.7%	+21.80%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 6.5%	+21.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 6.5%	+21.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 6.5%	+21.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 3.6%	+20.90%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 4.0%	+20.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 5.1%	+19.40%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 27.5%	B 8.5%	+19.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 5.6%	+18.90%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 24.5%	B 8.6%	+15.80%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket	A 8.6%	B 1.9%	+6.75%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 8.6%	B 2.3%	+6.40%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 8.6%	B 2.6%	+6.05%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 8.6%	B 2.7%	+6.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 8.6%	B 3.6%	+5.10%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 3.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 3.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 3.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 3.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 8.6%	B 4.0%	+4.70%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 4.5%	+4.00%	Buy spread
KH Kamala Harris	RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket	A 5.6%	B 1.9%	+3.65%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

Home | Prediction Markets | 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee