Kalshi is on track to set a new monthly activity record that could nearly double December’s total transactions. This shows rising demand for regulated prediction markets as the company simultaneously increases its policy footprint in Washington.
As of January 24, Kalshi had already recorded more than 39.5 million transactions for the month, the company shared on X, putting them on track for a record 51.5 million transactions in January.
Our prediction market data tracking confirms the increased pace. Last week, Kalshi logged more weekly transactions than Polymarket for the first time with 13.4 million to Polymarket’s 11.6 million.
Kalshi opening a Washington office
The transaction milestone comes as Kalshi formally expands its presence in Washington, D.C., opening a new office in the nation’s capital. The top U.S. exchange also appointed John Bivona as its first Head of Federal Government Relations.
These moves suggest a more structured approach to policy engagement as prediction markets draw increased scrutiny from both federal and state authorities. Kalshi said the expansion will help them promote “responsible innovation in financial markets.”
Bivona brings nearly two decades of experience in political campaigns and federal government roles. He previously served in the Biden administration as the first White House Liaison at the Department of Homeland Security. He was also chief of staff to then–Congressman Antonio Delgado of New York. Bivona also held senior roles at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the 2018 election cycle.
More recently, he founded Intersection Government Relations and Intersection Advocacy, organizations that advise campaigns, causes, Fortune 50 companies and startups.
“Kalshi spent four years getting regulatory approval before it even launched a product,” Bivona said in a statement. “It’s built the leading, most trusted prediction market platform, pioneering the category.”
In a LinkedIn post on Jan. 27, Bivona praised the Kalshi model, saying: “People decide the price and compete fairly against each other. To do well on Kalshi, you need to be smarter than your neighbor, not smarter than the house.”
Building a broader policy team
Alongside Bivona’s hire, Kalshi has also brought on Blake Bee to lead its state-level policy efforts. Bee joins the team from Amazon, where he served as a senior manager of state and local public policy. Additionally, he led engagement with state attorneys general.
Before Amazon, Bee spent seven years at the National Association of Attorneys General. He spent more than eight years as executive counsel and assistant attorney general in the Mississippi Attorney General’s Office. There, he oversaw legislative and public policy matters.
The dual focus on federal and state engagement comes amid ongoing legal and regulatory friction around prediction markets. At the moment, there are conflicts between state gambling laws intersecting with federal commodities regulation.
Several states have challenged the legality of event-based contracts offered by federally regulated platforms. This creates a complex compliance context even as CFTC oversight provides a national framework.
Regulatory-first strategy amid market expansion
Kalshi has consistently said that its growth is based on regulatory compliance. The exchange spent four years securing CFTC approval before going live. It has positioned that process as a competitive advantage as many new entrants explore the space.
Their regulatory-compliant approach contrasts with offshore or crypto prediction markets. Some have faced enforcement actions or temporary bans in the United States before seeking compliance, as was the case with Polymarket.
The opening of a Washington office suggests Kalshi expects prediction markets to remain a focal point of regulatory debate, particularly as volume scales and more platforms enter the category.
With transaction volumes this month far exceeding December’s total, January is shaping up to be a milestone month for Kalshi. A record-setting close further highlights the growing demand and rising engagement with prediction markets.
