US Elections

Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.

US Elections

Texas Political Volume at Kalshi Focusing on Cornyn-Paxton Runoff

Texas political markets have reached $24.2 million of trading volume on Kalshi, but less than $200K in open interest separates Paxton from...

Derek Helling

May 25, 2026

US Elections

Trump’s Primary Wave Hits Texas Senate Runoff but Markets Still See Democratic Senate Path

Prediction markets pushed Ken Paxton to dominant odds after President Trump’s endorsement in the Texas Senate runoff, continuing a trend seen in Louisiana and Kentucky while Senate...

Pat Evans

May 21, 2026

Trump Paxton endorsement sends odds soaring

US Elections

Trump’s Paxton Endorsement Has Prediction Markets Treating Texas Senate Runoff as a Done Deal

Ken Paxton odds surged to 94% in the Texas Senate GOP primary following President Donald Trump's...

Pat Evans

May 19, 2026

US Elections

GOP Turns Prime Georgia Senate Pickup Into a Primary Mess as Ossoff Holds Strong

A three-way Republican battle in the Georgia Senate primary has prediction markets breaking heavily for Democratic sitting Sen. Jon...

Pat Evans

May 19, 2026

US Elections

Markets Flip on Massie Ahead of KY-04 Vote: Can Trump-Backed Gallrein Pull Off Upset?

Tuesday’s Republican primary for the 4th House District in Kentucky is a raw test of the President Donald Trump revenge narrative playing out on prediction markets. Can a...

Pat Evans

May 19, 2026

US Elections

Louisiana Senate Markets Turn on Cassidy as Trump-Backed Letlow Gains Ground

Trump-backed Julia Letlow is the clear favorite over incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy on prediction markets in the Louisiana GOP Senate...

Pat Evans

May 15, 2026

US Elections

Markets Aren’t Buying AOC‑Backed Rabb Surge in PA-03 Democratic House Primary

Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary isn’t just a local House race anymore. It’s turned into the hottest early test of the party’s 2028 fault lines. ...

Pat Evans

May 13, 2026

US Elections

Kentucky GOP House Primary Odds Briefly Flip to Gallrein After Massie Scandal

A Kentucky House race has become perhaps the nastiest, priciest House primary of the cycle, a match between incumbent libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie and President Donald...

Pat Evans

May 13, 2026