Latest News
Michigan Senate Markets Give El-Sayed Significant Edge as Polling Shows a Dead Heat
More than $5.7 million has traded across Kalshi and Polymarket on Michigan’s open Senate race, with both platforms putting Abdul El-Sayed in the low- to mid-60s. But a new Detroit-area poll gives Republican Mike Rogers a narrow lead, underscoring how far prediction-market confidence has moved ahead of the conventional view in a race central to Senate control.
CFTC
Kalshi Certifies Gold and Silver Perpetual Contracts While Lawsuit Challenging Offerings Remains Pending
Kalshi’s self-certification of gold and silver perps raises the stakes of The CME Group’s legal challenge to the CFTC’s regulation of futures.
Regulation and Policy
New Jersey Asks Supreme Court to Decide Whether Prediction Markets Are Sportsbooks or Swaps
New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review its loss to Kalshi, giving the justices a direct chance to resolve the growing split over whether sports-event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling.
The petition comes days after the Ninth Circuit ruled for Nevada and against Kalshi, the opposite conclusion reached by the Third Circuit in New Jersey.
Regulation and Policy
Kalshi Sanctions Congressional Candidate Laurie Buckhout Following Trades She Placed On Her Own Race
Laurie Buckhout, who is running to represent North Carolina’s first congressional district, faces a fine and has been suspended by Kalshi after she traded on markets related to the race she is a candidate in.
Weekly Volume Report
Prediction Markets Grow 14% As NFL Season Sets Up Major Growth
Prediction markets hit $12.9B in weekly volume as Kalshi takes 92% share, while the NFL season could drive billions more in prediction market trading.
Political Reports
- Kalshi Sees Democrats Holding New Hampshire Senate Seat Despite Toss-Up Talk
- Texas Senate Race Continues To Trade Like a Toss-Up as Paxton Holds a Thin Kalshi Edge
- Over $106M Has Been Traded on LA’s Mayor Race as Bass Holds a Narrowing Edge
- AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In
- Prediction Markets Call Trump Candidate Wins In South Carolina and Oklahoma Runoffs, Margins Show His Grip Still Has Limits
- Trump Doubles Down on Mazzei in Oklahoma Governor Runoff After Prediction Markets Missed First Round
Promo News
NFL Win Totals 2026: What Prediction Markets Say About All 32 Teams
The Super Bowl favorite Rams and several other contenders are expected to battle for double digit wins, while others could have their work cut out to finish the season above .500.
Promo News
NFL Again Demands Prediction Markets Pull ‘Objectionable’ Bets Ahead of Kickoff
The league says contracts on player injuries, officiating, broadcast mentions and easily manipulated plays remain available months after its first warning. Its latest letter, sent days before the 2026 season begins, sharpens the pressure on Kalshi, Polymarket and other federally regulated exchanges, and notably calls their products “bets.”
Promo News
NFL Week 1 Predictions: Daily Updates and Odds
Trading in the Patriots vs. Seahawks accelerated ahead of Wednesday night’s opener, lifting Kalshi game composite volume to $2,993,670, up $1,634,959 overnight, as of 6:04 a.m. ET on Sept. 9. The Chargers remained Week 1’s strongest favorite at 82% against the Cardinals.