US Elections

Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.

US Elections

Iowa Governor Primary Hands Trump and Prediction Markets a Rare Miss

Trump-backed Randy Feenstra entered Iowa’s GOP governor primary with 80% prediction market odds, but 19% underdog Zach Lahn pulled off the upset. What it means for Iowa and 2026...

Pat Evans

June 3, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Markets See Bass-Pratt Runoff Taking Shape For Los Angeles Mayor

Prediction markets favor a Karen Bass–Spencer Pratt runoff in the Los Angeles Mayor race. Despite Pratt's surge, traders still give Bass a commanding 75% chance to win...

Pat Evans

June 3, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Markets Still Favor Becerra as California Primary Count Drags On

As California governor primary votes continue to be counted, Xavier Becerra remains the frontrunner at prediction markets with odds at 77-81% to be the next Golden State...

Pat Evans

June 3, 2026

Platner scandal odds steady Maine senate

US Elections

Platner Scandal Barely Moves Maine Senate Prediction Market Odds

Prediction markets tighten but still favor Democrats in Maine, with Platner holding 60-65% odds despite a recent texting...

Pat Evans

June 1, 2026

US Elections

Montana Senate Race Tests Whether Prediction Markets Are Underpricing Seth Bodnar

Prediction markets give Republicans a 74% chance to win Montana's open Senate seat, but polls suggest independent Seth Bodnar may be more competitive than traders expect heading into the...

Pat Evans

June 1, 2026

US Elections

NJ GOP Senate Primary Attracts Trading Volume Despite Strong Democratic Hold Odds

Polymarket traders have wagered nearly $440K on New Jersey's GOP Senate primary, while prediction markets continue to price Democrats as overwhelming favorites to hold Sen. Cory Booker's...

Pat Evans

May 29, 2026

US Elections

Iowa Split: Prediction Markets Back Rob Sand but Favor GOP Senate Hold Ahead of Primary

Prediction markets give Democrat Rob Sand a 64%-66% chance to win Iowa's governor race, while Republicans remain favored to hold the open Senate seat. Here's why traders are pricing the two...

Pat Evans

May 29, 2026

Becerra and Hilton favored in CA governor primary

US Elections

CA Governor Primary Markets Signal Becerra vs Hilton Matchup as Polls Catch Up

The California governor race is turning into what prediction markets have signaled for weeks. The markets have been calling a top two showdown between Democrat Xavier Becerra and...

Pat Evans

May 28, 2026

US Elections

Texas Made the Senate Map Harder for Republicans, Markets Reacted

Winning the nomination fight is not the same as building a November strong hold. Trump can still pick a nominee, but he does not make the nominee more palatable to independents. And in a...

Pat Evans

May 27, 2026

US Elections

Texas Senate Runoff: Prediction Markets Saw the Trump Wave Before the Vote Did

Prediction markets nailed another MAGA ouster in the Texas Senate GOP runoff, but it could set up a tough November slate for...

Pat Evans

May 27, 2026

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