US Elections

Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.

US Elections

NJ GOP Senate Primary Attracts Trading Volume Despite Strong Democratic Hold Odds

Polymarket traders have wagered nearly $440K on New Jersey's GOP Senate primary, while prediction markets continue to price Democrats as overwhelming favorites to hold Sen. Cory Booker's...

Pat Evans

May 29, 2026

US Elections

Iowa Split: Prediction Markets Back Rob Sand but Favor GOP Senate Hold Ahead of Primary

Prediction markets give Democrat Rob Sand a 64%-66% chance to win Iowa's governor race, while Republicans remain favored to hold the open Senate seat. Here's why traders are pricing the two...

Pat Evans

May 29, 2026

Becerra and Hilton favored in CA governor primary

US Elections

CA Governor Primary Markets Signal Becerra vs Hilton Matchup as Polls Catch Up

The California governor race is turning into what prediction markets have signaled for weeks. The markets have been calling a top two showdown between Democrat Xavier Becerra and...

Pat Evans

May 28, 2026

US Elections

Texas Made the Senate Map Harder for Republicans, Markets Reacted

Winning the nomination fight is not the same as building a November strong hold. Trump can still pick a nominee, but he does not make the nominee more palatable to independents. And in a...

Pat Evans

May 27, 2026

US Elections

Texas Senate Runoff: Prediction Markets Saw the Trump Wave Before the Vote Did

Prediction markets nailed another MAGA ouster in the Texas Senate GOP runoff, but it could set up a tough November slate for...

Pat Evans

May 27, 2026

US Elections

Texas Political Volume at Kalshi Focusing on Cornyn-Paxton Runoff

Texas political markets have reached $24.2 million of trading volume on Kalshi, but less than $200K in open interest separates Paxton from...

Derek Helling

May 25, 2026

US Elections

Trump’s Primary Wave Hits Texas Senate Runoff but Markets Still See Democratic Senate Path

Prediction markets pushed Ken Paxton to dominant odds after President Trump’s endorsement in the Texas Senate runoff, continuing a trend seen in Louisiana and Kentucky while Senate...

Pat Evans

May 21, 2026

Trump Paxton endorsement sends odds soaring

US Elections

Trump’s Paxton Endorsement Has Prediction Markets Treating Texas Senate Runoff as a Done Deal

Ken Paxton odds surged to 94% in the Texas Senate GOP primary following President Donald Trump's...

Pat Evans

May 19, 2026

US Elections

GOP Turns Prime Georgia Senate Pickup Into a Primary Mess as Ossoff Holds Strong

A three-way Republican battle in the Georgia Senate primary has prediction markets breaking heavily for Democratic sitting Sen. Jon...

Pat Evans

May 19, 2026

US Elections

Markets Flip on Massie Ahead of KY-04 Vote: Can Trump-Backed Gallrein Pull Off Upset?

Tuesday’s Republican primary for the 4th House District in Kentucky is a raw test of the President Donald Trump revenge narrative playing out on prediction markets. Can a...

Pat Evans

May 19, 2026

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