US Elections

Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.

US Elections

Platner Holds Maine Senate Edge as Markets Brush Off Scandals; Polls Less Convinced

Prediction markets still favor Graham Platner in Maine’s Senate race despite scandals and mixed polling, with traders pricing him as the likely Democratic nominee and slight general...

Pat Evans

June 8, 2026

US Elections

Pratt Falls to Third in LA Mayor Race as Prediction Markets Correct Course

Prediction markets over-estimated Spencer Pratt’s early LA mayoral surge before vote counts pushed him to third. Karen Bass remains favored for November, with Nithya Raman now the likely...

Pat Evans

June 8, 2026

US Elections

Rubio Closes on Vance in 2028 GOP Nomination Market After Trump Comments

Prediction markets show Marco Rubio closing sharply on JD Vance after fresh comments from Donald Trump in the 2028 Republican primary...

Pat Evans

June 5, 2026

US Elections

Democratic Momentum Builds in Iowa Senate Race But Odds Still Lean Republican

Iowa's open Senate race is drawing new Democratic optimism after Josh Turek's primary win, but prediction markets still favor Republicans, creating one of the clearest media-versus-market...

Pat Evans

June 4, 2026

US Elections

Murphy Upsets Prediction Markets in New Jersey GOP Senate Primary

Justin Murphy stunned prediction markets in New Jersey’s GOP Senate primary, defeating an 80% favorite as traders poured more than $600K into a race with little impact on...

Pat Evans

June 4, 2026

US Elections

Iowa Governor Primary Hands Trump and Prediction Markets a Rare Miss

Trump-backed Randy Feenstra entered Iowa’s GOP governor primary with 80% prediction market odds, but 19% underdog Zach Lahn pulled off the upset. What it means for Iowa and 2026...

Pat Evans

June 3, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Markets See Bass-Pratt Runoff Taking Shape For Los Angeles Mayor

Prediction markets favor a Karen Bass–Spencer Pratt runoff in the Los Angeles Mayor race. Despite Pratt's surge, traders still give Bass a commanding 75% chance to win...

Pat Evans

June 3, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Markets Still Favor Becerra as California Primary Count Drags On

As California governor primary votes continue to be counted, Xavier Becerra remains the frontrunner at prediction markets with odds at 77-81% to be the next Golden State...

Pat Evans

June 3, 2026

Platner scandal odds steady Maine senate

US Elections

Platner Scandal Barely Moves Maine Senate Prediction Market Odds

Prediction markets tighten but still favor Democrats in Maine, with Platner holding 60-65% odds despite a recent texting...

Pat Evans

June 1, 2026

US Elections

Montana Senate Race Tests Whether Prediction Markets Are Underpricing Seth Bodnar

Prediction markets give Republicans a 74% chance to win Montana's open Senate seat, but polls suggest independent Seth Bodnar may be more competitive than traders expect heading into the...

Pat Evans

June 1, 2026

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