US Elections
Prediction Markets Saw Becerra’s California Governor Win Coming
Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton are set for a November showdown for California governor, but prediction markets already have a...
Pat Evans
June 11, 2026
US Elections
Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.
US Elections
Bass Holds 64% to Win LA Mayor Runoff Fight in Prediction Markets
Incumbent LA Mayor Karen Bass remains the favorite on prediction markets at 64% as her runoff opponent officially is Nithya...
Pat Evans
June 11, 2026
US Elections
Evette Heads to SC Governor Runoff Still Backed by 76% at Prediction Markets
Trump-endorsed South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette is heading to a runoff for SC governor and still heavily favored by prediction...
Pat Evans
June 10, 2026
US Elections
Prediction Markets Start Pricing Jon Ossoff as 2028 Contender for President
Prediction markets are warming to Jon Ossoff for 2028, lifting him to 9% on Kalshi and 7% on Polymarket as Gavin Newsom slips and the Georgia senator remains a heavy Senate reelection...
Pat Evans
June 9, 2026
US Elections
Trump Endorsement Faces Iowa-Style Test in South Carolina GOP Governor Primary
Prediction markets give Trump-backed Pamela Evette an 81% chance to win South Carolina’s GOP governor primary, but polling and recent Iowa results suggest the race may be closer than...
Pat Evans
June 8, 2026
US Elections
Platner Holds Maine Senate Edge as Markets Brush Off Scandals; Polls Less Convinced
Prediction markets still favor Graham Platner in Maine’s Senate race despite scandals and mixed polling, with traders pricing him as the likely Democratic nominee and slight general...
Pat Evans
June 8, 2026
US Elections
Pratt Falls to Third in LA Mayor Race as Prediction Markets Correct Course
Prediction markets over-estimated Spencer Pratt’s early LA mayoral surge before vote counts pushed him to third. Karen Bass remains favored for November, with Nithya Raman now the likely...
Pat Evans
June 8, 2026
US Elections
Rubio Closes on Vance in 2028 GOP Nomination Market After Trump Comments
Prediction markets show Marco Rubio closing sharply on JD Vance after fresh comments from Donald Trump in the 2028 Republican primary...
Pat Evans
June 5, 2026
US Elections
Democratic Momentum Builds in Iowa Senate Race But Odds Still Lean Republican
Iowa's open Senate race is drawing new Democratic optimism after Josh Turek's primary win, but prediction markets still favor Republicans, creating one of the clearest media-versus-market...
Pat Evans
June 4, 2026
US Elections
Murphy Upsets Prediction Markets in New Jersey GOP Senate Primary
Justin Murphy stunned prediction markets in New Jersey’s GOP Senate primary, defeating an 80% favorite as traders poured more than $600K into a race with little impact on...
Pat Evans
June 4, 2026