September Fed Rate Decision Predictions & Odds
Prediction markets currently give the Federal Reserve a 49.5% probability of holding rates steady at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with Fed maintains rate at 49.3% (or +103 odds). The Fed held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, but three policymakers dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, and the minutes released August 19 showed broader concern that rates may need to rise if inflation remains elevated. With July payrolls weakening and inflation data coming in relatively soft, traders have shifted back toward a September hold while keeping a hike firmly in play. Our Fed decision odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction markets to show consensus probabilities on the next FOMC decision. Total volume stands at — as traders price the September meeting. This data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).
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Kalshi vs. Polymarket Odds and Probability of a Fed Rate in September
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
H2Hike 25bps
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
49.5%↓ -4.0%
O
51.0%
K
49.5%
P
49.5%
G
49.5%
U
48.0%
F
47.0%
FMRFed maintains rate
Vol —
Spread 6.5%
Agg
49.3%↑ +6.2%
O
55.0%
F
51.0%
P
49.5%
G
49.5%
U
49.0%
K
48.5%
H5OHike 50bps or more
Vol —
Spread 6.0%
Agg
4.0%↓ -0.5%
F
7.0%
U
1.0%
C2Cut >25bps
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
1.5%— +0.0%
G
1.5%
H2Hike >25bps
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↓ -1.0%
G
1.5%
H2OHike 25bps or more
Vol $1.6M
Spread 2.5%
Agg
1.5%↓ -1.0%
O
4.0%
K
1.5%
C2Cut 25bps
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -20.5%
O
3.0%
G
2.5%
U
1.0%
F
1.0%
K
0.5%
L2OLower 25bps or more
Vol $26.6M
Spread 1.7%
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.2%
O
2.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
C5OCut 50bps or more
Vol —
Spread 1.8%
Agg
0.2%↓ -1.0%
F
2.0%
U
1.0%
P
0.2%
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...
Christopher Feery
Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten...
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, 2026, matching what prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket had been signaling for days. Ahead of the decision, contracts on Kalshi were pricing roughly a 92–93% probability that policymakers would hold rates steady, correctly reflecting where traders believed the meeting would resolve. The markets overwhelmingly expected another pause despite growing debate over the Fed's path later this year.
Reuters reported the decision came with three dissents in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, highlighting one of the more hawkish voting splits in recent years even as the committee ultimately kept rates unchanged.
The result also reinforced a growing trend in macro markets: prediction markets once again called the outcome more accurately than traditional Fed funds futures markets. While Fed funds futures continued to assign a meaningfully higher probability to a surprise rate hike heading into the announcement, Kalshi's market remained firmly anchored around a hold.
Barron's recently highlighted Federal Reserve research showing Kalshi's day-before FOMC forecasts have outperformed Fed funds futures when predicting policy decisions, strengthening the case that prediction markets are becoming an increasingly valuable real-time measure of market expectations.
Attention now shifts to the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where traders will assess whether persistent inflation and the committee's unusually hawkish voting split translate into another hold or the Fed's next move. The September 16 meeting will also include updated economic projections and a revised dot plot, giving markets a clearer view of policymakers' expectations for rates through the end of the year.
Chair Kevin Warsh offered little forward guidance following the July decision, leaving inflation, employment and energy data as the key drivers likely to reshape market pricing in the weeks ahead
Major events and how September Fed decision odds moved
Listed latest first, the table tracks Kalshi’s Yes price for the Federal Reserve maintaining its target rate at the September meeting. Movement is measured from the last hourly price before the event’s UTC date to the final hourly price approximately 48 hours later; notable interim lows or highs are included. The timing is descriptive and does not prove that each event caused the full move.
| Date | Major event | Kalshi hold Yes movement | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 19, 2026 | Minutes from the July FOMC meeting showed that several officials favored a 25-basis-point hike and many believed tightening could be necessary if inflation did not decline. | 71% → 70% (briefly 74%) | The minutes kept a September hike firmly in play, although the hold price finished the following 48 hours close to where it started. |
| Aug. 12, 2026 | July CPI rose 0.1% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI increased 0.2% and 2.5% year over year. | 60% → 70% (briefly 71%) | Inflation matched expectations and the September hold price increased. |
| Aug. 7, 2026 | The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, while the prior month’s payroll figure was revised sharply lower. | 49% → 66% | The weak labor report produced the largest sustained increase among the selected August events. |
| July 29, 2026 | The Fed kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75%, but three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate hike. | 43% → 46% (briefly 39%) | The immediate hold was confirmed, although the unusually hawkish split kept a September hike in play. |
| July 23, 2026 | Oil prices climbed as the Iran conflict intensified, adding to inflation concerns and increasing expectations for a possible September hike. | 49% → 46% (briefly 44%) | The hold price declined modestly as energy-driven inflation risk moved back to the foreground. |
| July 14, 2026 | June CPI came in softer than expected, including a 0.4% monthly decline, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress. | 37% → 64% (briefly 67%) | The cooler inflation report coincided with the biggest upward repricing of the selected hold events. |
| July 8, 2026 | Minutes from the June meeting showed policymakers split over the direction of rates and increasingly concerned about inflation. | 68% → 60% (briefly 52%) | The divided, inflation-focused minutes pushed the hold price lower. |
| June 17, 2026 | The Fed held rates steady at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair, while signaling that a future hike remained possible. | 72% → 53% (briefly 49%) | The current rate was maintained, but the more hawkish path sharply reduced confidence in another hold by September. |
The Fed’s June messaging and July energy shock increased expectations for a hike, while softer inflation and July payroll data later moved traders back toward a September hold. The July meeting minutes kept a hike firmly in play, while August 20 jobless claims showed that layoffs remained low.
How a Federal Reserve rate cut betting market is priced
Fed prediction markets turn the September FOMC decision into a series of yes/no contracts. A share priced at 71¢ implies roughly a 71% probability of that outcome, before accounting for fees, bid-ask spreads, and other market frictions. If you buy a "yes" share at 71¢ and the Fed holds rates, the contract pays $1; if the Fed hikes instead, it pays $0.
The current market illustrates how traders can price a decision that is not yet settled. The aggregate September market has the Fed maintaining its 3.50%–3.75% target range as the favorite, while a 25-basis-point hike remains the main alternative.
Prices are not forecasts from the Federal Reserve itself. They represent the probability traders are willing to assign to each outcome based on available economic data, Fed communication, and positioning. The gap between the traded price and the eventual probability can also reflect fees, bid-ask spreads, liquidity, and market-specific biases.
For FOMC markets, the most useful signal is often the direction of the price rather than a single snapshot. A move from 50¢ to 70¢ represents a major shift in how traders view the odds, while divergence between venues can show where liquidity or information is being priced differently.
How resolution works
FOMC markets resolve to the official Federal Reserve press release at federalreserve.gov, not to media reporting or analyst commentary. Resolution typically lands within hours of the 2:00 p.m. ET statement, with payouts processed shortly after. Emergency rate moves outside scheduled meetings count toward the same market — a between-meeting cut would resolve the relevant "yes" outcome immediately on both platforms.
A statement that holds the rate but signals future cuts can swing related markets ("rate cuts in 2026," "first cut by which meeting") even when the headline market resolves cleanly. Reading the dot plot release alongside the statement is how informed traders reposition in the first thirty minutes after a Fed decision.
Why these markets matter
Fed rate markets aggregate millions of dollars of capital into a single number that updates in real time. CME's FedWatch tool does the same thing using federal funds futures, but Kalshi and Polymarket bring in retail and global flow that futures markets don't capture, and the spread between the three sources is where pricing dislocations show up. When Polymarket prices a 57% probability of zero cuts in 2026 while the Fed's own dot plot shows one, traders are positioning for the dot plot to revise.
Watch for three things: large directional shifts in the hours before and after FOMC statements, divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket pricing on the same question, and unusual volume on tail outcomes — 50bp cuts, surprise hikes — that suggest informed positioning.
How prediction markets differ
DeFi Rate aggregates FOMC odds across six prediction-market data sources, including Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini, ForecastEx, and OG. Each venue structures and settles its economic contracts differently, so prices can vary even when markets are tracking the same Federal Reserve decision.
DeFi Rate normalizes the available outcomes and uses volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP) as the default aggregation method, weighting each mapped market by its reported 24-hour trading volume. When volume is unavailable, the calculation falls back to a simple average for that snapshot. Event data is updated hourly.
- Kalshi: CFTC-regulated US derivatives exchange. Settles in USD. Economic markets include FOMC rate decisions, CPI, GDP, employment data, S&P 500 close levels, and inflation thresholds. Combo contracts let traders pair the rate decision with the number of dissenting votes in a single position. Cited alongside CME FedWatch by macro desks for real-time rate expectations. Kalshi's user growth has pushed the platform to roughly 67% of combined Kalshi-Polymarket weekly volume. Bonus: Trade $10, Get $25. Promo code: RATE.
- Polymarket: Decentralized prediction market settling in USDC on Polygon, with a CFTC-regulated US version operating through QCX. Economic markets include single-meeting FOMC contracts, full-year rate cut counts, CPI, and jobs data. Strongest on year-out and tail-outcome markets — the "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" market alone has cleared $21M+ in volume. Bonus: Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus. Promo code: RATE.
- Gemini Predictions: CFTC-regulated designated contract market operated by Gemini Titan, an affiliate of Gemini. Settles in USD through the Gemini Exchange account. Economic markets include FOMC rate decisions structured as binary contracts (for example, "Will Fed Funds Rate drop at least 0.25% at the next meeting?"). Available to US customers on web, iOS, and Android since December 2025. Bonus: Trade $10, Get $10. Promo code: Not Required.
- OG: CFTC-regulated through Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA). Settles in USD. Economic markets include FOMC rate decisions, CPI, and employment data. Available in 49 states plus DC. The first US prediction market with planned margin trading on event contracts, pending CFTC certification. Launched February 2026. Bonus: Trade $10, Get $10
DeFi Rate aggregates these feeds using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), which weights each platform's quote by its 24-hour trading volume.
Common misconceptions about the FOMC
The Fed sets mortgage rates: The Fed sets the federal funds rate, which is the overnight rate banks charge each other to borrow reserves. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves on inflation expectations and broader bond market demand. The two often move in the same direction but aren't directly linked.
The chair decides the rate: The FOMC has 12 voting members — seven members of the Board of Governors, the New York Fed president, and four rotating regional Fed presidents. Decisions are made by majority vote.
The Fed targets a single rate: The Fed targets a range, currently 3.50%–3.75%, and uses open market operations to keep the effective federal funds rate inside that band. The rate quoted in headlines is usually the upper bound of the target range.
A rate cut immediately lowers all borrowing costs: Prime rate moves with the fed funds rate within a day, but mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and corporate credit price off different curves and adjust over weeks or months. The transmission is neither instant nor uniform across loan types.
The Fed has only one job: The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Tension between those two goals is what drives many FOMC debates and can produce dissenting votes, including the three members who favored a 25-basis-point hike at the July 2026 meeting.
Emergency rate cuts mean a recession is already here: Emergency cuts have happened for varied reasons, including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic shock, and they signal serious Fed concern about financial stability or rapid economic deterioration. They aren't always followed by a recession, and they aren't a routine policy tool.
Frequently asked questions
Are FOMC prediction markets legal in the US?
Several prediction market platforms now offer contracts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, giving traders a way to speculate on whether policymakers will raise, cut, or hold rates. Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings Predict all offer Fed decision markets, although availability may vary depending on your jurisdiction and the platform's eligibility requirements.
What happens if the Fed doesn't release a statement?
FOMC prediction markets use platform-specific resolution rules to determine what happens if a scheduled decision is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise does not produce the expected announcement. Traders should review the individual contract's rules before taking a position rather than assuming every venue handles an unusual meeting outcome the same way.
Can I trade Fed rate markets after the FOMC statement is released?
Trading availability depends on the platform and contract. Markets may remain open briefly while the decision is verified, but liquidity can change rapidly once the 2:00 p.m. ET statement is released. Traders should check the specific market's trading and resolution rules rather than assuming that a contract will remain available after the announcement.
How does VWAP aggregation differ from a simple average?
VWAP weights each platform's quote by its trading volume, so a thinly-traded $50K market doesn't pull the aggregate price the way a $5M market does. A simple average gives the two platforms equal weight regardless of liquidity.
What's the difference between the single-meeting FOMC market and the "rate cuts in 2026" market?
The single-meeting market resolves on one outcome — hold, cut, or hike — at one specific FOMC meeting. The annual "rate cuts in 2026" market counts every cut across every meeting in the year, including emergency moves. The two markets often disagree, and the disagreement carries analytical value when comparing single-meeting odds against the year-end view.