Prediction Markets Fed Decision Trading Odds

Fed Rate Decision in April: FOMC Prediction Odds

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Updated 1 minute ago · 9:04 AM PDT

Prediction markets price a 99.8% probability the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the April 28–29 FOMC meeting. Polymarket dominates the 24-hour volume at $12.7M of $12.7M total, with Kalshi at $5.3K. The hold was priced in after the Iran war sent March energy prices up 10.9% in a single month — the largest jump since 2005 — pushing headline CPI to 3.3%. Fed officials project one cut in 2026, though JPMorgan now forecasts zero cuts this year and a hike in Q3 2027. DeFi Rate aggregates live FOMC trading odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).

Largest Spread

98.85%

Fed maintains rate

Current Favorite

99.8%

Fed maintains rate +1.9%

24H Volume (Share)

$12.7M

Momentum Leader

+1.9%

Fed maintains rate YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Outcome:

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Probability of an FOMC Increase / Decrease in April 2026

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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FMR

Fed maintains rate

Vol $3.2M Spread 98.9%

Agg 99.8%

↑ +1.9%

P 99.9%

K 99.5%

G 25.0%

U 1.0%

Polymarket 99.9%

Vol $3.2M 99.8–99.9¢

Kalshi 99.5%

Vol $1.4K 99–100¢

Gemini 25.0%

Vol $0 0–3¢

Polymarket US 1.0%

Vol $0 99¢

Hike 25bps

Vol $546 Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

U 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket US 1.0%

Vol $27 1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $519 0–1¢

Cut 25bps

Vol $2.7K Spread 1.5%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -1.0%

G 2.0%

K 0.5%

Gemini 2.0%

Vol $24 1–3¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2.7K 0–1¢

Hike >25bps

Vol $4.1M Spread 1.8%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.6%

U 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Polymarket US 2.0%

Vol $764 2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $136 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $4.1M 0.1–0.2¢

Cut >25bps

Vol $3.4M Spread 2.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.6%

U 2.0%

G 1.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Polymarket US 2.0%

Vol $161 2¢

Gemini 1.5%

Vol $0 0–3¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $532 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $3.4M 0.1¢

Hike >50bps

Vol $2.1M Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $2.1M 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Polymarket US	Gemini
FMR Fed maintains rate	99.8% ↑ +1.9%	98.9%	$3.2M	Kalshi 99.5% 99–100¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket 99.9% 99.8–99.9¢ Vol $3.2M	Polymarket US 1.0% 99¢ Vol $0	Gemini 25.0% 0–3¢ Vol $0
H2 Hike 25bps	0.5% — +0.0%	0.5%	$546	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $519	Polymarket — —	Polymarket US 1.0% 1¢ Vol $27	Gemini — —
C2 Cut 25bps	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	1.5%	$2.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket — —	Polymarket US — —	Gemini 2.0% 1–3¢ Vol $24
H2 Hike >25bps	0.2% ↓ -0.6%	1.8%	$4.1M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $136	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $4.1M	Polymarket US 2.0% 2¢ Vol $764	Gemini — —
C2 Cut >25bps	0.1% ↓ -0.6%	2.0%	$3.4M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $532	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $3.4M	Polymarket US 2.0% 2¢ Vol $161	Gemini 1.5% 0–3¢ Vol $0
H5 Hike >50bps	0.1% ↓ -0.3%	—	$2.1M	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $2.1M	Polymarket US — —	Gemini — —

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