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Fed Rate Odds for March 2026

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Updated 16 minutes ago · 4:58 AM PDT

Prediction markets show a 99.5% probability the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The 24-hour volume of $23.1M is dominated by Polymarket ($21.6M), with Kalshi contributing ($1.5M). Despite unemployment sitting at a four-year high of 4.6%, the committee appears locked into wait-and-see mode as it weighs tariff pressures against a softening labor market. A surprise cut would be the story - but markets aren't pricing one in. Our FOMC rate tracker aggregates live odds from Kalshi and Polymarket on the probability of an upcoming rate cut or hike. The data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing.

Largest Spread

-0.20%

Hike 25bps

Consensus Leader

99.5%

Fed maintains rate +7.8%

24H Volume (Share)

$23.1M

Momentum Leader

+7.8%

Fed maintains rate YTD change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Chart settings

Outcome:

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

FMR

Fed maintains rate

Vol $4.3M Spread 0.0%

Agg 99.5%

↑ +7.8%

K 99.5%

P 99.5%

Kalshi 99.5%

Vol $1.5M 99–100¢

Polymarket 99.5%

Vol $2.8M 99.4–99.5¢

Cut 25bps

Vol $2.6K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -6.5%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2.6K 0–1¢

Hike >25bps

Vol $10 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $10 0–1¢

Cut >25bps

Vol $2.8M Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -6.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $272 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $2.8M 0.3–0.4¢

C5B

Cut >50 bps

Vol $3.6M Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.5%

P 0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $3.6M 0.1–0.2¢

Hike 25bps

Vol $12.5M Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.6%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $44 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $12.5M 0.1–0.2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
FMR Fed maintains rate	99.5% ↑ +7.8%	0.0%	$4.3M	Kalshi 99.5% 99–100¢ Vol $1.5M	Polymarket 99.5% 99.4–99.5¢ Vol $2.8M
C2 Cut 25bps	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$2.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2.6K	Polymarket — —
H2 Hike >25bps	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$10	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $10	Polymarket — —
C2 Cut >25bps	0.4% ↓ -6.1%	0.2%	$2.8M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $272	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $2.8M
C5B Cut >50 bps	0.2% ↓ -0.5%	—	$3.6M	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $3.6M
H2 Hike 25bps	0.2% ↓ -0.6%	0.4%	$12.5M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $44	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $12.5M

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
H2 Hike 25bps	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
C2 Cut >25bps	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.40%	-0.40%	No
FMR Fed maintains rate	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 99.5¢	Sell @ K 99¢	-0.50%	-1.49%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
FMR Fed maintains rate	C5B Cut >50 bps	Polymarket	A 99.5%	B 0.2%	+99.30%	Buy spread
FMR Fed maintains rate	H2 Hike 25bps	Polymarket	A 99.5%	B 0.2%	+99.30%	Buy spread
FMR Fed maintains rate	C2 Cut >25bps	Polymarket	A 99.5%	B 0.4%	+99.10%	Buy spread
FMR Fed maintains rate	C2 Cut 25bps	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 0.5%	+99.00%	Buy spread
FMR Fed maintains rate	H2 Hike >25bps	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 0.5%	+99.00%	Buy spread
FMR Fed maintains rate	C2 Cut >25bps	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 0.5%	+99.00%	Buy spread
FMR Fed maintains rate	H2 Hike 25bps	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 0.5%	+99.00%	Buy spread
C2 Cut >25bps	C5B Cut >50 bps	Polymarket	A 0.4%	B 0.2%	+0.20%	Buy spread
C2 Cut >25bps	H2 Hike 25bps	Polymarket	A 0.4%	B 0.2%	+0.20%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.