Fed Decision Odds for January
Prediction markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates unchanged at its January 27-28 meeting, with no change sitting at 75% probability (-300 odds). A 25 basis point decrease stands at 23% (+335), while deeper cuts remain unlikely at 2% (+4900) for 50+ basis points.Our Fed decision tracker aggregates live odds from Kalshi and Polymarket on the probability of an upcoming rate cut or hike. The data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing.
Probability Over Time
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Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Total Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FMR Fed maintains rate | 76.5% ↓ -0.2% | 0.0% | $667.6K K: $71.9K | P: $595.7K |
K
76.5%
76–77¢ |
P
76.5%
76–77¢ |
2BD 25 bps decrease | 20.6% — +0.0% | 2.0% | $972.8K K: $34.6K | P: $938.2K |
K
22.5%
22–23¢ |
P
20.5%
20–21¢ |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) | 1.5% ↓ -0.2% | 0.1% | $1.6M K: $1.6K | P: $1.6M |
K
1.5%
1–2¢ |
P
1.6%
1.5–1.6¢ |
2BI 25 bps increase | 1.3% ↓ -0.1% | 0.8% | $2.0M K: $72 | P: $2.0M |
K
0.5%
0–1¢ |
P
1.3%
1.2–1.3¢ |
MT2 More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps) | 0.5% — +0.0% | — | $2 K: $2 | P: $0 |
K
0.5%
0–1¢ |
P
—
— |
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Quick Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2BD 25 bps decrease |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 21¢ | Sell @ K 22¢ | +1.00% | +0.78% |
No | |
2BI 25 bps increase |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 1.2¢ | +0.20% | +0.13% |
No | |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ P 1.5¢ | -0.50% | -0.57% |
No | |
FMR Fed maintains rate |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 77¢ | Sell @ P 76¢ | -1.00% | -1.77% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Quick Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FMR Fed maintains rate |
2BI 25 bps increase |
Kalshi | A 76.50% | B 0.50% | +76.00% | Buy spread | |
FMR Fed maintains rate |
MT2 More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps) |
Kalshi | A 76.50% | B 0.50% | +76.00% | Buy spread | |
FMR Fed maintains rate |
2BI 25 bps increase |
Polymarket | A 76.50% | B 1.25% | +75.25% | Buy spread | |
FMR Fed maintains rate |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) |
Kalshi | A 76.50% | B 1.50% | +75.00% | Buy spread | |
FMR Fed maintains rate |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) |
Polymarket | A 76.50% | B 1.55% | +74.95% | Buy spread | |
FMR Fed maintains rate |
2BD 25 bps decrease |
Polymarket | A 76.50% | B 20.50% | +56.00% | Buy spread | |
FMR Fed maintains rate |
2BD 25 bps decrease |
Kalshi | A 76.50% | B 22.50% | +54.00% | Buy spread | |
2BD 25 bps decrease |
2BI 25 bps increase |
Kalshi | A 22.50% | B 0.50% | +22.00% | Buy spread | |
2BD 25 bps decrease |
MT2 More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps) |
Kalshi | A 22.50% | B 0.50% | +22.00% | Buy spread | |
2BD 25 bps decrease |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) |
Kalshi | A 22.50% | B 1.50% | +21.00% | Buy spread | |
2BD 25 bps decrease |
2BI 25 bps increase |
Polymarket | A 20.50% | B 1.25% | +19.25% | Buy spread | |
2BD 25 bps decrease |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) |
Polymarket | A 20.50% | B 1.55% | +18.95% | Buy spread | |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) |
2BI 25 bps increase |
Kalshi | A 1.50% | B 0.50% | +1.00% | Buy spread | |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) |
MT2 More than 25 bps increase (ie. +50 bps) |
Kalshi | A 1.50% | B 0.50% | +1.00% | Buy spread | |
MT2 More than 25 bps decrease (ie. -50 bps) |
2BI 25 bps increase |
Polymarket | A 1.55% | B 1.25% | +0.30% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Absolute difference between Kalshi and Polymarket probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.