Nineteen teams have now qualified for the World Cup Round of 32 after crucial wins for Ivory Coast and Ecuador yesterday.
The bracket is starting to take shape, as four games are already set, including South Africa vs. Canada and the USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Prediction markets give France a 62% chance of beating Norway in today’s blockbuster clash. The other game in Group I sees Senegal take on Iraq. Group H will then conclude with Spain vs. Uruguay and Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia, before Group G wraps as New Zealand faces Belgium and Egypt goes up against Iran.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Norway vs. France matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 3 p.m. ET on FOX from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Norway vs. France (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Norway) | 21% | 21% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 20% | 20% |
| Moneyline (France) | 61% | 62% |
| Spread (Norway +1.5) | 65% | 64% |
| Spread (France -1.5) | 36% | 37% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 42% | 43% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 59% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 63% | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 38% | 35% |
| First Team to Score (Norway) | 32% | 33% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 4% | 5% |
| First Team to Score (France) | 64% | 63% |
Norway and France will fight for first place in Group I this afternoon. They’re level on six points each at the top of the table, but France currently has the superior goal difference. A draw would be enough to clinch first place for Les Bleus, whereas the Norwegians need to win.
How Norway vs. France breaks down
This matchup will pit two of the world’s greatest strikers against one another. France captain Kylian Mbappé has scored four goals in two games at this tournament. He scored twice in France’s 3-1 win against Senegal, before adding another two goals in a 3-0 victory over Iraq. Mbappé is priced at 54% with Kalshi and Polymarket to score in this game. That could be a popular market, as Mbappé has scored 16 goals in 16 World Cup games during his career.
Norway striker Erling Haaland has also been in sensational form at this tournament. He scored twice in a 4-1 win against Iraq, and his two goals then inspired Norway to a 3-2 win against Senegal earlier this week. Mbappé and Haaland are now on four goals apiece for the tournament, leaving them just one behind Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race.
Who will win this personal duel? “Honestly, I don’t care too much,” said Haaland in a frank interview. “We’re through [to the knockout stage], which is incredible. They [France] are probably going to win against us; they’re probably going to win the whole tournament.”
Prediction markets agree with him, as France is the clear favorite to win the World Cup this summer. Both France and Norway have already qualified for the Round of 32, but prediction sites expect France to win this game and finish first in the group. Les Bleus are priced at 62% to win the game and 36% to cover a 1.5-goal handicap. Both teams to score is priced at 63% with Polymarket, which could be interesting, as it has paid off in both of Norway’s games so far. The Norwegians have scored in 19 of their last 20 games, so they could cause problems for France’s defense.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There are five more World Cup matchups taking place today. We’re now on Matchday 3, so all four teams in each group need to play simultaneously. That’s designed to prevent any team from gaining an unfair tactical advantage.
Senegal vs. Iraq, 3 p.m. ET
These teams will battle for third place in Group I. The game will be held at BMO Field in Toronto, and prediction markets make Senegal the heavy favorite.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Senegal vs. Iraq (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Senegal) | 80% | 79% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 14% | 14% |
| Moneyline (Iraq) | 8% | 8% |
| Spread (Senegal -1.5) | 58% | 59% |
| Spread (Iraq +1.5) | 43% | 42% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 42% | 41% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 59% | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 46% | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 55% | 55% |
| First Team to Score (Senegal) | 77% | 77% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 4% | 6% |
| First Team to Score (Iraq) | 21% | 20% |
Senegal began the tournament by losing 3-1 to France, but the Lions of Teranga were a little unfortunate to lose 3-2 to Norway on Matchday 2. Ismaïla Sarr scored twice in that game, and Senegal’s forwards looked dangerous throughout, but the defense just couldn’t cope with Haaland. Senegal still has a chance of qualifying for the Round of 32 as one of the eight best third-place teams, but only if it secures a heavy win against Iraq today.
Prediction markets give Senegal a 58% chance of covering a 1.5-goal spread, suggesting this will be a lopsided game. Iraq was far less competitive against France and Norway. It lost 4-1 to the Norwegians and 3-0 to France. Senegal will need to make a strong start, with markets pricing it at 77% to score first in this game.
Uruguay vs. Spain, 8 p.m. ET
Spain will aim to extend its unbeaten streak to 34 games when it takes on Uruguay in Guadalajara this evening. La Roja are priced at 61% with Polymarket and 63% with Kalshi to win this game.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Uruguay vs. Spain (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Uruguay) | 15% | 13% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 26% | 25% |
| Moneyline (Spain) | 61% | 63% |
| Spread (Uruguay +1.5) | 67% | 66% |
| Spread (Spain -1.5) | 34% | 35% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 44% | 45% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 57% | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 44% | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 57% | 56% |
| First Team to Score (Uruguay) | 26% | 25% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 8% | 9% |
| First Team to Score (Spain) | 67% | 66% |
Spain is the reigning European champion, so it’s among the favorites to win the World Cup this summer. La Roja could only draw 0-0 with Cape Verde in their opener, but they were missing star winger Lamine Yamal for most of that game. He returned to the starting lineup on Matchday 2 after recovering from a hamstring injury, and it took him just 10 minutes to open the scoring against Saudi Arabia. Spain ultimately won 4-0, with Mikel Oyarzabal scoring twice and Hassan Altambakti scoring an own goal.
That result left Spain top of Group H, two points clear of Uruguay and Cape Verde. They will finish first if they beat Uruguay today. Uruguay has endured a difficult tournament so far. La Celeste drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia in their opener, as Saudi goalkeeper Mohammed Al-Owais made nine superb saves. Uruguay’s goalkeeper, Fernando Muslera, then made two costly errors in a 2-2 draw with Cape Verde on Matchday 2. La Celeste could struggle to contain Spain’s attack now that Yamal is back in business, and he’s trading at 51% with Kalshi to either score or assist in this game.
Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia, 8 p.m. ET
Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia will be fighting for their World Cup survival when they clash in Houston this evening. Prediction markets expect a tight, low-scoring game.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Cape Verde) | 37% | 37% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 29% | 29% |
| Moneyline (Saudi Arabia) | 36% | 35% |
| Spread (Cape Verde -1.5) | 16% | 16% |
| Spread (Saudi Arabia +1.5) | 85% | 85% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 43% | 44% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 58% | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 52% | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 49% | 48% |
| First Team to Score (Cape Verde) | 46% | 46% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 11% | 10% |
| First Team to Score (Saudi Arabia) | 46% | 45% |
Cape Verde stunned the world by holding Spain to a 0-0 draw on Matchday 1. Veteran goalkeeper Vozinha was the hero, as he made a string of excellent saves to keep the Spaniards at bay. He was finally beaten when Cape Verde faced Uruguay earlier this week, but goals from Kevin Pina and Hélio Varela earned the Blue Sharks a 2-2 draw.
That left them third in Group H, but they will qualify for the Round of 32 if they beat Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have only taken one point from two games so far, and they’ll be eliminated if they lose or draw this game. It promises to be a tense, cagey game, as so much is at stake for both teams, so under 2.5 goals is priced at 58%. Prediction markets can’t really split them, with Cape Verde trading at 37% on Polymarket and Saudi Arabia priced at 36%.
New Zealand vs. Belgium, 11 p.m. ET
Belgium’s players will be desperate to return to winning ways when they face New Zealand in Vancouver tonight. Kalshi prices the Red Devils at 83% to beat New Zealand. Polymarket lists 84% for the same result.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on New Zealand vs. Belgium (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (New Zealand) | 6% | 7% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 12% | 12% |
| Moneyline (Belgium) | 83% | 84% |
| Spread (New Zealand +2.5) | 57% | 58% |
| Spread (Belgium -2.5) | 44% | 43% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 54% | 51% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 47% | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 48% | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 53% | 55% |
| First Team to Score (New Zealand) | 18% | 18% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 3% | 3% |
| First Team to Score (Belgium) | 80% | 80% |
Belgium was the heavy favorite to win Group G, but it is now staring down the barrel of a humiliating early exit. The Belgians could only draw 1-1 with Egypt in their first game, and they then drew 0-0 with Iran on Matchday 2. That result left them third in their group and facing elimination if they lose to New Zealand tonight.
That would be a travesty, as the Belgian squad is stacked with elite players. Thibaut Courtois is arguably the world’s best goalkeeper, Kevin De Bruyne is a superb playmaker, and Romelu Lukaku is a handful up front. Star winger Jérémy Doku missed the Iran game, but he will likely return against New Zealand, which would give the team a boost.
New Zealand is at the bottom of Group G after drawing 2-2 with Iran and then losing 3-1 to Egypt. The Kiwis struggled to deal with set pieces in that defeat to Egypt, which doesn’t bode well for their chances of containing De Bruyne and Lukaku. Belgium is the heavy favorite, but you can unlock more value by backing the Red Devils at 44% to cover a 2.5-goal spread.
Egypt vs. Iran, 11 p.m. ET
Egypt will win Group G if it gets the better of Iran at Lumen Field in Seattle tonight. Kalshi prices Pharaohs at 40% to win the game, and Polymarket lists 39%.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Egypt vs. Iran (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Egypt) | 39% | 40% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 38% | 36% |
| Moneyline (Iran) | 25% | 25% |
| Spread (Egypt -1.5) | 17% | 17% |
| Spread (Iran +1.5) | 85% | 85% |
| Total Goals (Over 1.5) | 62% | 62% |
| Total Goals (Under 1.5) | 39% | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 43% | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 57% | 56% |
| First Team to Score (Egypt) | 50% | 49% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 15% | 14% |
| First Team to Score (Iran) | 38% | 38% |
Egypt has made an excellent start to the 2026 World Cup. Emam Ashour’s first international goal earned the Pharaohs an impressive 1-1 draw with Belgium. They then earned their first World Cup win by beating New Zealand 3-1 earlier this week. Egypt trailed 1-0 at half-time, but goals from Mostafa Ziko, Mohamed Salah, and Trézéguet put the Kiwis to the sword.
The players should now be full of confidence as they prepare to face Iran, which has struggled amid travel restrictions and behind-the-scenes political pressure at this tournament. Egypt is the favorite to win this game, but its defense has looked a little shaky at the World Cup. Polymarket prices both teams to score at 43%, which looks interesting.
Final stretch of group stage
Several teams will book their places in the World Cup Round of 32 today. Matchday 3 concludes tomorrow, and soccer fans can look forward to six games:
- Panama vs. England
- Croatia vs. Ghana
- Colombia vs. Portugal
- DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan
- Algeria vs. Austria
- Jordan vs. Argentina
The Round of 32 will then begin with South Africa vs. Canada at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Sunday. For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
