Super Bowl Guest Predictions and Odds

Kalshi and Polymarket traders are pricing in which A-listers will be spotted inside Levi’s Stadium when the Seattle Seahawks face the New England Patriots on Sunday. Celebrity sightings have always been part of the Super Bowl spectacle, but prediction markets are turning that red-carpet tradition into a tradeable proposition. Think of them as celebrity prop bets — similar to the novelty wagers sportsbooks offer on the coin toss or national anthem length, except here you’re buying and selling shares on whether Tom Brady or Taylor Swift will actually be in the building. The other major difference, it’s open to all 50 states, including California where Super Bowl betting is not currently available.

The celebrity attendance markets have attracted over $1.8 million in volume on Kalshi and $96K on Polymarket — and for several names near the top, the reasoning is obvious. Here’s a breakdown of the most likely Super Bowl LX celebrity predictions, according to prediction markets as of February 5, 2026.

Tom Brady: 99.4% (Yes)

This one is as close to a lock as prediction markets get. Brady confirmed during FOX’s NFC Championship broadcast that he’ll be at Levi’s Stadium to watch his former team compete. “I’m going to be there in San Francisco watching in my hometown,” Brady said. The game is in Santa Clara — roughly 30 miles from his hometown of San Mateo. His former franchise is playing for a seventh Super Bowl title, and Brady spent 20 seasons as the Patriots’ quarterback. He won’t be in the booth (NBC holds the broadcast rights this year, not FOX), but he’ll be in the building.

Volume: $644

Cardi B: 95.5% (Yes)

Cardi B’s near-certain attendance likely reflects connections to the Bad Bunny halftime performance circle. Bad Bunny is headlining the Super Bowl LX Halftime Show, and the two artists share deep ties in the Latin music space, having collaborated multiple times. Super Bowl halftime headliners frequently bring high-profile guests to the event, and Cardi B fits the profile as a fixture at major entertainment spectacles. She’s also positioned as a lock for the Super Bowl halftime odds.

Volume: $5.3K

Gavin Newsom: 92.0% (Yes)

California’s governor has been the public face of Super Bowl LX’s economic narrative, touting a projected $500 million regional impact and 90,000 out-of-town visitors. His office issued a formal press release framing the game as part of an $18 billion multi-year sports event pipeline for the state. Newsom tweeted directly at Bad Bunny welcoming him to California for the event. It would be a major political miss for the governor to skip the biggest event happening on his home turf.

Volume: $2.7K

Jason Kelce: 91.5% (Yes)

Kelce is already in the Bay Area. The ESPN analyst called the Pro Bowl Games on February 3 at San Francisco’s Moscone Center and is part of ESPN’s on-site Super Bowl week coverage. He’s scheduled to appear on the four-hour Postseason NFL Countdown on Super Bowl Sunday morning at Levi’s Stadium alongside Mike Greenberg, Tedy Bruschi, Rex Ryan, and Randy Moss. He’s literally working the event.

Volume: $3.6K

Ben Affleck: 83.0% (Yes)

Affleck is a lifelong, vocal New England Patriots fan from Cambridge, Massachusetts. His Patriots fandom is well-documented across decades of public appearances, and the franchise is back in the Super Bowl for the first time since the Brady-Belichick era. For a die-hard fan like Affleck, this is a can’t-miss moment — especially with the game in the Bay Area, where he frequently works.

Volume: $2.1K

Lady Gaga: 75.5% (Yes)

Gaga headlined the Super Bowl LI halftime show in 2017 and has remained closely tied to NFL entertainment culture. She performed at the last Super Bowl held at Levi’s Stadium (Super Bowl 50). With the game back in the Bay Area and Bad Bunny headlining, there’s a strong probability she attends as a high-profile guest. The +8.0% price movement suggests traders are increasingly confident.

Volume: $2.8K

Matt Damon: 71.0% (Yes)

Another Boston-area native and close friend of Ben Affleck, Damon’s attendance odds are closely linked to the Patriots’ return to the Super Bowl. The two are frequently spotted together at major events, and a Patriots Super Bowl appearance provides the occasion. The -9.0% drop in price may reflect some uncertainty, but at 71%, the market still favors him showing up.

Volume: $2.4K

Donald Trump: ~6% (Unlikely)

Trump is unlikely to attend Super Bowl LX despite being the first sitting president to ever appear at a Super Bowl in person when he went to last year’s game in New Orleans. He told the New York Post the game is “just too far away” and has publicly criticized the halftime performers, calling Bad Bunny and Green Day “a terrible choice.” Trump has instead opted for a pre-taped interview with NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Llamas that will air during Super Bowl Sunday pre-game coverage. With the game less than three days out, the ~6% price reflects a near-consensus that the president will not be in attendance.

Volume: Low

The biggest movers this week

Several names saw significant price swings heading into game week:

• Zendaya surged +14.5% to 34.5%, possibly reflecting Bay Area connections or halftime show speculation.
• Jeff Bezos dropped 28.0% to 35.5%, the largest decline on the board.
• Timothée Chalamet fell 26.0% to 36.5% despite having the highest volume on the board at $13.7K — suggesting heavy two-way trading with no consensus.
• Sydney Sweeney dropped 12.0% to 54.5%.
• Sam Altman climbed +9.0% to 31.0%, consistent with Silicon Valley’s home-turf advantage for a Bay Area Super Bowl.

What “attending” means on Kalshi and Polymarket

These Super Bowl entertainment props work differently from traditional sports betting. On sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, traders buy and sell contracts that settle at $1 (Yes) or (No), rather than placing fixed wagers against a sportsbook. The price reflects the market’s real-time consensus probability — so a 92¢ contract implies a 92% chance of attending the Super Bowl.

For the celebrity attendance markets specifically, “attending” is defined as being physically present inside Levi’s Stadium between the start and end of the game. Resolution is sourced from major news agency reports and social media posts by the celebrities themselves. Pre-game and post-game appearances outside the stadium don’t count.

The bottom line

Super Bowl prop bets have expanded far beyond the coin toss and Gatorade color. The top tier of celebrity attendance odds at Super Bowl LX is driven by professional obligations (Brady, Kelce), political positioning (Newsom), established fandom (Affleck, Damon), and entertainment industry ties (Cardi B, Gaga). The Bay Area location also adds a Silicon Valley dimension, with tech figures like Sam Altman and Elon Musk generating speculative interest despite lower probabilities.

With $13.7K in volume, the Timothée Chalamet market is the most actively traded celebrity contract. If you are looking for value in Super Bowl prop bet market, the mid-range names between 50% and 70% offer the most interesting risk-reward profiles heading into Sunday.

DeFi Rate data sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets as of February 5, 2026. Odds and volume are subject to change.