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2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 46 minutes ago · 7:40 PM PST

Prediction markets have J.D. Vance as the favorite candidate to win the 2028 Republican nominee race, with a 50.1% probability or, -101 odds. Marco Rubio holds second at 17.3% (+477) , while Donald J. Trump sits in third at 4.3% (+2,199). Total volume for Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $7.1M in the last 24 hours with $3.9K on Kalshi and $7.1M on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

2.53%

J.D. Vance → View arbs

Consensus Leader

50.1%

J.D. Vance

24H Volume (Share)

$7.1M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $16.2K Spread 4.0%

Agg 50.1%

↓ -0.2%

P 50.5%

F 47.0%

K 46.5%

Polymarket 50.5%

Vol $14.7K 50–51¢

ForecastEx 47.0%

Vol $0 47¢

Kalshi 46.5%

Vol $1.5K 46–47¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $22.0K Spread 2.0%

Agg 17.3%

↑ +1.4%

F 19.0%

P 17.3%

K 17.0%

ForecastEx 19.0%

Vol $246 19¢

Polymarket 17.3%

Vol $19.9K 17.3–17.4¢

Kalshi 17.0%

Vol $1.8K 16–18¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $46.9K Spread 3.5%

Agg 4.3%

↓ -0.1%

F 7.0%

P 4.4%

K 3.5%

ForecastEx 7.0%

Vol $0 7¢

Polymarket 4.4%

Vol $46.8K 4.3–4.4¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $52 3–4¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $81.8K Spread 0.6%

Agg 3.0%

↑ +0.1%

K 3.5%

F 3.0%

P 2.9%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $55 3–4¢

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

Polymarket 2.9%

Vol $81.8K 2.9–3¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $1.8K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.9%

↓ -0.2%

K 2.5%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $25 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $1.8K 1.8–1.9¢

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $1.9K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.7%

↓ -0.1%

K 2.5%

P 1.7%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $1 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $1.9K 1.6–1.7¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $173.1K Spread 0.2%

Agg 1.7%

↑ +0.3%

P 1.7%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $173.1K 1.6–1.7¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $3 1–2¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $4.5K Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.6%

↓ -0.1%

K 2.5%

P 1.6%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $165 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $4.3K 1.5–1.6¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $5.5K Spread 3.5%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -0.1%

F 5.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.5%

ForecastEx 5.0%

Vol $0 5¢

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $195 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $5.3K 1.4–1.6¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $26.4K Spread 0.1%

Agg 1.4%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.4%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $14 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $26.4K 1.3–1.4¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $18.2K Spread 2.7%

Agg 1.4%

— +0.0%

F 4.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.4%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $0 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $18.2K 1.3–1.4¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $814.4K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.2%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $814.4K 1.1–1.2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Rand Paul

Vol $557.6K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.1%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $557.6K 0.9–1.1¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $272.9K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.1%

K 1.5%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $39 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $272.8K 0.9–1¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $1.6M Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.1%

K 1.5%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $1.6M 0.9–1¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $317.4K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $317.4K 0.8–1¢

John Thune

Vol $34.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $34.8K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $513.8K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $513.8K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $34.4K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $34.4K 0.7–0.8¢

Elise Stefanik

Vol $118.6K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $118.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Elon Musk

Vol $165.2K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $165.2K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Byron Donalds

Vol $83.6K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $83.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Tom Brady

Vol $127.6K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $127.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $77.3K Spread 3.4%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

F 4.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $77.3K 0.6–0.7¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $172.6K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $172.6K 0.6–0.7¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $136.0K Spread 3.4%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

F 4.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $3 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $136.0K 0.6–0.7¢

Mike Pence

Vol $567.3K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $567.3K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Katie Britt

Vol $370.3K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $370.3K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $210.8K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $210.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Erika Kirk

Vol $376.5K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $376.5K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $197.1K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $197.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	50.1% ↓ -0.2%	4.0%	$16.2K	Kalshi 46.5% 46–47¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 50.5% 50–51¢ Vol $14.7K	ForecastEx 47.0% 47¢ Vol $0
MR Marco Rubio	17.3% ↑ +1.4%	2.0%	$22.0K	Kalshi 17.0% 16–18¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket 17.3% 17.3–17.4¢ Vol $19.9K	ForecastEx 19.0% 19¢ Vol $246
DJT Donald J. Trump	4.3% ↓ -0.1%	3.5%	$46.9K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $52	Polymarket 4.4% 4.3–4.4¢ Vol $46.8K	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
RD Ron DeSantis	3.0% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$81.8K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $55	Polymarket 2.9% 2.9–3¢ Vol $81.8K	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	1.9% ↓ -0.2%	0.7%	$1.8K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $25	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $1.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	1.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.9%	$1.9K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $1.9K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.7% ↑ +0.3%	0.2%	$173.1K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $173.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
TC Ted Cruz	1.6% ↓ -0.1%	1.0%	$4.5K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $165	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $4.3K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	1.5% ↓ -0.1%	3.5%	$5.5K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $195	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $5.3K	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
TM Thomas Massie	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
NH Nikki Haley	1.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$26.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $14	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $26.4K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.4% — +0.0%	2.7%	$18.2K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $18.2K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
MG Matt Gaetz	1.2% ↑ +0.4%	0.7%	$814.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $814.4K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RP Rand Paul	1.0% ↑ +0.1%	—	$557.6K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1.1¢ Vol $557.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
SB Steve Bannon	1.0% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$272.9K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $39	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $272.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BK Brian Kemp	1.0% ↓ -0.1%	0.5%	$1.6M	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $1.6M	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
IT Ivanka Trump	0.9% ↓ -0.1%	—	$317.4K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $317.4K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JT John Thune	0.9% — +0.0%	0.4%	$34.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $34.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KN Kristi Noem	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.2%	$513.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $513.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JH Josh Hawley	0.8% — +0.0%	0.8%	$34.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $34.4K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
ES Elise Stefanik	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$118.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $118.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
EM Elon Musk	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$165.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $165.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BD Byron Donalds	0.8% — +0.0%	0.8%	$83.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $83.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
TB Tom Brady	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	—	$127.6K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $127.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.7% — +0.0%	3.4%	$77.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $77.3K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$172.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $172.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.7% — +0.0%	3.4%	$136.0K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $136.0K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
MP Mike Pence	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$567.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $567.3K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KB Katie Britt	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$370.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $370.3K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
GA Greg Abbott	0.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$210.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $210.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
EK Erika Kirk	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$376.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $376.5K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$197.1K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $197.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 47¢	Sell @ P 50¢	+3.00%	+2.53%	Yes
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
GA Greg Abbott	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.7¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 4¢	Sell @ P 4.3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
JH Josh Hawley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
BD Byron Donalds	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
SB Steve Bannon	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2¢	Sell @ P 1.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
MP Mike Pence	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 18¢	Sell @ P 17.3¢	-0.70%	-0.88%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
JDV J.D. Vance	NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 1.35%	+49.15%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 1.50%	+49.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 1.55%	+48.95%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 1.65%	+48.85%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 1.65%	+48.85%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 1.85%	+48.65%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 2.95%	+47.55%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 4.35%	+46.15%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 1.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 2.50%	+44.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 2.50%	+44.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 2.50%	+44.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 2.50%	+44.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 2.50%	+44.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 3.50%	+43.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 3.50%	+43.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 50.50%	B 17.35%	+33.15%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 17.00%	+29.50%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket	A 17.35%	B 1.35%	+16.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 17.35%	B 1.50%	+15.85%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 17.35%	B 1.55%	+15.80%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 17.35%	B 1.65%	+15.70%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 17.35%	B 1.65%	+15.70%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi	A 17.00%	B 1.50%	+15.50%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 17.35%	B 1.85%	+15.50%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 17.00%	B 2.50%	+14.50%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 17.00%	B 2.50%	+14.50%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 17.00%	B 2.50%	+14.50%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 17.00%	B 2.50%	+14.50%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 17.00%	B 2.50%	+14.50%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.