2028 Presidential Election Winner Odds
Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 26.5% probability (+277). A Gavin Newsom win stands at 18.5% (+441), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $2.9M, with $7.1K at Kalshi and $2.9M at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.
Largest Spread
1.03%
Gretchen Whitmer
Consensus Leader
26.5%
J.D. Vance
24H Volume (Share)
$2.9M
K: 0.2%
P: 99.8%
Momentum Leader
—
24H change
Period:
Platform:
Probability Over Time
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Chart settings
Outcome:
Aggregated (VWAP)
Volume
Kalshi
Polymarket
Cross-Venue Spread
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
Sort:
JDVJ.D. Vance
Vol $105.0K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
26.5%— +0.0%
K
28.0%
P
26.5%
JDV
J.D. Vance
Vol $105.0K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
26.5%
— +0.0%
K
28.0%
P
26.5%
GNGavin Newsom
Vol $40.9K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
18.5%— +0.0%
K
18.5%
P
18.5%
GN
Gavin Newsom
Vol $40.9K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
18.5%
— +0.0%
K
18.5%
P
18.5%
MRMarco Rubio
Vol $36.4K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
10.2%↑ +1.5%
P
10.3%
K
10.0%
MR
Marco Rubio
Vol $36.4K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
10.2%
↑ +1.5%
P
10.3%
K
10.0%
AOCAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Vol $21.5K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
7.4%— +0.0%
P
7.5%
K
6.0%
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Vol $21.5K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
7.4%
— +0.0%
P
7.5%
K
6.0%
JSJosh Shapiro
Vol $234.3K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
3.2%↓ -0.3%
K
3.5%
P
3.2%
JS
Josh Shapiro
Vol $234.3K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
3.2%
↓ -0.3%
K
3.5%
P
3.2%
DJTDonald J. Trump
Vol $20.3K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
3.0%↓ -0.3%
K
3.5%
P
2.9%
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Vol $20.3K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
3.0%
↓ -0.3%
K
3.5%
P
2.9%
KHKamala Harris
Vol $15.6K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
2.5%— +0.0%
P
2.6%
K
2.5%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $15.6K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
2.5%
— +0.0%
P
2.6%
K
2.5%
PBPete Buttigieg
Vol $13.7K
Spread 1.2%
Agg
2.4%— +0.0%
K
3.5%
P
2.4%
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Vol $13.7K
Spread 1.2%
Agg
2.4%
— +0.0%
K
3.5%
P
2.4%
JBPJ.B. Pritzker
Vol $43.1K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
2.3%↓ -2.2%
K
2.5%
P
2.3%
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
Vol $43.1K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
2.3%
↓ -2.2%
K
2.5%
P
2.3%
ABAndy Beshear
Vol $69.8K
Spread 0.9%
Agg
1.7%— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
1.7%
AB
Andy Beshear
Vol $69.8K
Spread 0.9%
Agg
1.7%
— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
1.7%
DTRDwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Vol $28.3K
Spread —
Agg
1.6%— +0.0%
P
1.6%
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Vol $28.3K
Spread —
Agg
1.6%
— +0.0%
P
1.6%
RDRon DeSantis
Vol $36.2K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
1.5%— +0.0%
K
1.5%
P
1.5%
RD
Ron DeSantis
Vol $36.2K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
1.5%
— +0.0%
K
1.5%
P
1.5%
WMWes Moore
Vol $18.4K
Spread 1.3%
Agg
1.3%— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
1.3%
WM
Wes Moore
Vol $18.4K
Spread 1.3%
Agg
1.3%
— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
1.3%
DJTDonald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $15.6K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.2%— +0.0%
K
1.5%
P
1.2%
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $15.6K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.2%
— +0.0%
K
1.5%
P
1.2%
ITIvanka Trump
Vol $30.2K
Spread —
Agg
1.2%↓ -0.1%
P
1.2%
IT
Ivanka Trump
Vol $30.2K
Spread —
Agg
1.2%
↓ -0.1%
P
1.2%
VRVivek Ramaswamy
Vol $70.7K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.0%— +0.0%
P
1.0%
K
0.5%
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vol $70.7K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.0%
— +0.0%
P
1.0%
K
0.5%
EMElon Musk
Vol $147.5K
Spread —
Agg
1.0%— +0.0%
P
1.0%
EM
Elon Musk
Vol $147.5K
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
— +0.0%
P
1.0%
TCTucker Carlson
Vol $154.4K
Spread —
Agg
1.0%↓ -0.2%
P
1.0%
TC
Tucker Carlson
Vol $154.4K
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
↓ -0.2%
P
1.0%
GWGretchen Whitmer
Vol $8.3K
Spread 1.7%
Agg
0.9%— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
0.9%
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
Vol $8.3K
Spread 1.7%
Agg
0.9%
— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
0.9%
LJLeBron James
Vol $285.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.9%— +0.0%
P
0.9%
LJ
LeBron James
Vol $285.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.9%
— +0.0%
P
0.9%
KKKim Kardashian
Vol $158.3K
Spread —
Agg
0.9%— +0.0%
P
0.9%
KK
Kim Kardashian
Vol $158.3K
Spread —
Agg
0.9%
— +0.0%
P
0.9%
TGTulsi Gabbard
Vol $93.3K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
Vol $93.3K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
SASStephen A. Smith
Vol $95.9K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
Vol $95.9K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
NHNikki Haley
Vol $98.3K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
NH
Nikki Haley
Vol $98.3K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
GYGlenn Youngkin
Vol $167.7K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
GY
Glenn Youngkin
Vol $167.7K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
MOMichelle Obama
Vol $86.7K
Spread —
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
MO
Michelle Obama
Vol $86.7K
Spread —
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
JDJamie Dimon
Vol $113.2K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.7%— +0.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
JD
Jamie Dimon
Vol $113.2K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.7%
— +0.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
GAGreg Abbott
Vol $133.1K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.7%— +0.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
GA
Greg Abbott
Vol $133.1K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.7%
— +0.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
ZMZohran Mamdani
Vol $270.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.7%— +0.0%
P
0.7%
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
Vol $270.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
— +0.0%
P
0.7%
TWTim Walz
Vol $255.9K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
P
0.5%
K
0.5%
TW
Tim Walz
Vol $255.9K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%
— +0.0%
P
0.5%
K
0.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JDV J.D. Vance | 26.5% — +0.0% | 1.5% | $105.0K |
Kalshi
28.0% |
Polymarket
26.5% |
GN Gavin Newsom | 18.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $40.9K |
Kalshi
18.5% |
Polymarket
18.5% |
MR Marco Rubio | 10.2% ↑ +1.5% | 0.2% | $36.4K |
Kalshi
10.0% |
Polymarket
10.3% |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 7.4% — +0.0% | 1.5% | $21.5K |
Kalshi
6.0% |
Polymarket
7.5% |
JS Josh Shapiro | 3.2% ↓ -0.3% | 0.4% | $234.3K |
Kalshi
3.5% |
Polymarket
3.2% |
DJT Donald J. Trump | 3.0% ↓ -0.3% | 0.6% | $20.3K |
Kalshi
3.5% |
Polymarket
2.9% |
KH Kamala Harris | 2.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $15.6K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
2.6% |
PB Pete Buttigieg | 2.4% — +0.0% | 1.2% | $13.7K |
Kalshi
3.5% |
Polymarket
2.4% |
JBP J.B. Pritzker | 2.3% ↓ -2.2% | 0.3% | $43.1K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
2.3% |
AB Andy Beshear | 1.7% — +0.0% | 0.9% | $69.8K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
1.7% |
DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.6% — +0.0% | — | $28.3K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
1.6% |
RD Ron DeSantis | 1.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $36.2K |
Kalshi
1.5% |
Polymarket
1.5% |
WM Wes Moore | 1.3% — +0.0% | 1.3% | $18.4K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
1.3% |
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr. | 1.2% — +0.0% | 0.4% | $15.6K |
Kalshi
1.5% |
Polymarket
1.2% |
IT Ivanka Trump | 1.2% ↓ -0.1% | — | $30.2K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
1.2% |
VR Vivek Ramaswamy | 1.0% — +0.0% | 0.4% | $70.7K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
1.0% |
EM Elon Musk | 1.0% — +0.0% | — | $147.5K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
1.0% |
TC Tucker Carlson | 1.0% ↓ -0.2% | — | $154.4K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
1.0% |
GW Gretchen Whitmer | 0.9% — +0.0% | 1.7% | $8.3K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
0.9% |
LJ LeBron James | 0.9% — +0.0% | — | $285.0K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.9% |
KK Kim Kardashian | 0.9% — +0.0% | — | $158.3K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.9% |
TG Tulsi Gabbard | 0.8% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $93.3K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.8% |
SAS Stephen A. Smith | 0.8% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $95.9K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.8% |
NH Nikki Haley | 0.8% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $98.3K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.8% |
GY Glenn Youngkin | 0.8% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $167.7K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.8% |
MO Michelle Obama | 0.8% — +0.0% | — | $86.7K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.8% |
JD Jamie Dimon | 0.7% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $113.2K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.7% |
GA Greg Abbott | 0.7% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $133.1K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.7% |
ZM Zohran Mamdani | 0.7% — +0.0% | — | $270.6K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.7% |
TW Tim Walz | 0.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $255.9K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.5% |
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Quick Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GW Gretchen Whitmer |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.9¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +1.10% | +1.03% |
No | |
WM Wes Moore |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.3¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +0.70% | +0.63% |
No | |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 2.4¢ | Sell @ K 3¢ | +0.60% | +0.53% |
No | |
AB Andy Beshear |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.7¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +0.30% | +0.23% |
No | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 27¢ | Sell @ K 27¢ | +0.00% | -0.27% |
No | |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 7¢ | Sell @ P 7¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 3¢ | Sell @ K 3¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
VR Vivek Ramaswamy |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.9¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr. |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.2¢ | Sell @ K 1¢ | -0.20% | -0.27% |
No | |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 3.2¢ | Sell @ K 3¢ | -0.20% | -0.27% |
No | |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 2.3¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
TG Tulsi Gabbard |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
SAS Stephen A. Smith |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
NH Nikki Haley |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
GY Glenn Youngkin |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
JD Jamie Dimon |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.6¢ | -0.40% | -0.47% |
No | |
GA Greg Abbott |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.6¢ | -0.40% | -0.47% |
No | |
KH Kamala Harris |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 3¢ | Sell @ P 2.5¢ | -0.50% | -0.57% |
No | |
RD Ron DeSantis |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.5¢ | Sell @ K 1¢ | -0.50% | -0.57% |
No | |
TW Tim Walz |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.5¢ | -0.50% | -0.57% |
No | |
MR Marco Rubio |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 11¢ | Sell @ P 10.2¢ | -0.80% | -0.91% |
No | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 19¢ | Sell @ P 18¢ | -1.00% | -1.19% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Quick Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JDV J.D. Vance |
KH Kamala Harris |
Kalshi | A 28.00% | B 2.50% | +25.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Kalshi | A 28.00% | B 2.50% | +25.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
AB Andy Beshear |
Kalshi | A 28.00% | B 2.50% | +25.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
AB Andy Beshear |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 1.65% | +24.85% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Kalshi | A 28.00% | B 3.50% | +24.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Kalshi | A 28.00% | B 3.50% | +24.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Kalshi | A 28.00% | B 3.50% | +24.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 2.25% | +24.25% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 2.35% | +24.15% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
KH Kamala Harris |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 2.55% | +23.95% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 2.95% | +23.55% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 3.15% | +23.35% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Kalshi | A 28.00% | B 6.00% | +22.00% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 7.50% | +19.00% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
MR Marco Rubio |
Kalshi | A 28.00% | B 10.00% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
AB Andy Beshear |
Polymarket | A 18.50% | B 1.65% | +16.85% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
MR Marco Rubio |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 10.25% | +16.25% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Polymarket | A 18.50% | B 2.25% | +16.25% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Polymarket | A 18.50% | B 2.35% | +16.15% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
KH Kamala Harris |
Kalshi | A 18.50% | B 2.50% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Kalshi | A 18.50% | B 2.50% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
AB Andy Beshear |
Kalshi | A 18.50% | B 2.50% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
KH Kamala Harris |
Polymarket | A 18.50% | B 2.55% | +15.95% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Polymarket | A 18.50% | B 2.95% | +15.55% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Polymarket | A 18.50% | B 3.15% | +15.35% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Kalshi | A 18.50% | B 3.50% | +15.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Kalshi | A 18.50% | B 3.50% | +15.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Kalshi | A 18.50% | B 3.50% | +15.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Kalshi | A 18.50% | B 6.00% | +12.50% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Polymarket | A 18.50% | B 7.50% | +11.00% | Buy spread |
Kalshi Trading Fee
1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side
Polymarket Trading Fee
0% (gas only)
Gemini Trading Fee
0.40% per side
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Aggregation Method
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Data Sources & Cadence
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Outcome Mapping
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Spread & Liquidity
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.