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2028 Presidential Election Winner Odds

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Updated 24 minutes ago · 10:40 PM PST

Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 25.6% probability (+291). A Gavin Newsom win stands at 19.5% (+413), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $3.9M, with $3.9K at Kalshi and $3.9M at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

2.30%

Marco Rubio → View arbs

Consensus Leader

25.6%

J.D. Vance

24H Volume (Share)

$3.9M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $24.0K Spread 1.0%

Agg 25.6%

↑ +1.1%

K 26.5%

P 25.5%

Kalshi 26.5%

Vol $1.9K 26–27¢

Polymarket 25.5%

Vol $22.1K 25–26¢

Gavin Newsom

Vol $13.0K Spread 0.0%

Agg 19.5%

— +0.0%

K 19.5%

P 19.5%

Kalshi 19.5%

Vol $429 19–20¢

Polymarket 19.5%

Vol $12.6K 19–20¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $21.7K Spread 2.9%

Agg 7.6%

↓ -1.0%

K 10.5%

P 7.6%

Kalshi 10.5%

Vol $157 10–11¢

Polymarket 7.6%

Vol $21.5K 7.5–7.6¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $4.8K Spread 0.0%

Agg 5.5%

— +0.0%

K 5.5%

P 5.5%

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $957 5–6¢

Polymarket 5.5%

Vol $3.9K 5–6¢

Josh Shapiro

Vol $26.1K Spread 0.2%

Agg 4.3%

↓ -0.2%

K 4.5%

P 4.3%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $17 4–5¢

Polymarket 4.3%

Vol $26.1K 4.2–4.4¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $50.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 3.4%

↑ +0.2%

K 3.5%

P 3.4%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $1 3–4¢

Polymarket 3.4%

Vol $50.8K 3.3–3.5¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $28.6K Spread 0.7%

Agg 2.9%

↓ -0.1%

K 3.5%

P 2.9%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $27 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.9%

Vol $28.6K 2.8–2.9¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $38.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 2.5%

↑ +0.1%

K 2.5%

P 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $66 2–3¢

Polymarket 2.5%

Vol $38.7K 2.4–2.5¢

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $23.8K Spread 1.3%

Agg 2.2%

— +0.0%

K 3.5%

P 2.2%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $11 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $23.8K 2.1–2.3¢

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $344.4K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.9%

↓ -0.3%

K 2.5%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $50 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $344.3K 1.8–1.9¢

DTR

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Vol $31.9K Spread —

Agg 1.6%

— +0.0%

P 1.6%

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $31.9K 1.5–1.6¢

Wes Moore

Vol $71.5K Spread 1.2%

Agg 1.4%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.4%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $26 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $71.5K 1.3–1.4¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $39.5K Spread 0.1%

Agg 1.4%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.4%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $38 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $39.4K 1.3–1.4¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $10.9K Spread —

Agg 1.3%

— +0.0%

P 1.3%

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $10.9K 1.2–1.3¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $26.3K Spread —

Agg 1.2%

— +0.0%

P 1.2%

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $26.3K 1.1–1.2¢

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $37.4K Spread 1.5%

Agg 1.1%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.1%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $252 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $37.2K 1–1.1¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $129.7K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $129.7K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Jamie Dimon

Vol $46.0K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $46.0K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $124.8K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $1 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $124.8K 0.9–1¢

Elon Musk

Vol $105.0K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $105.0K 0.9–1¢

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $160.1K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $160.1K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $44.1K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $44.1K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $233.0K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $2 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $233.0K 0.8–0.9¢

LeBron James

Vol $330.6K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $330.6K 0.8–0.9¢

Tim Walz

Vol $844.7K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $844.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $205.6K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $205.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $233.4K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $233.4K 0.7–0.8¢

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $133.0K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $133.0K 0.7–0.8¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $135.4K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $135.4K 0.7–0.8¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $349.9K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $349.9K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
JDV J.D. Vance	25.6% ↑ +1.1%	1.0%	$24.0K	Kalshi 26.5% 26–27¢ Vol $1.9K	Polymarket 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $22.1K
GN Gavin Newsom	19.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$13.0K	Kalshi 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $429	Polymarket 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $12.6K
MR Marco Rubio	7.6% ↓ -1.0%	2.9%	$21.7K	Kalshi 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $157	Polymarket 7.6% 7.5–7.6¢ Vol $21.5K
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	5.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$4.8K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $957	Polymarket 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $3.9K
JS Josh Shapiro	4.3% ↓ -0.2%	0.2%	$26.1K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $17	Polymarket 4.3% 4.2–4.4¢ Vol $26.1K
KH Kamala Harris	3.4% ↑ +0.2%	0.1%	$50.8K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 3.4% 3.3–3.5¢ Vol $50.8K
DJT Donald J. Trump	2.9% ↓ -0.1%	0.7%	$28.6K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $27	Polymarket 2.9% 2.8–2.9¢ Vol $28.6K
AB Andy Beshear	2.5% ↑ +0.1%	0.1%	$38.8K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $66	Polymarket 2.5% 2.4–2.5¢ Vol $38.7K
PB Pete Buttigieg	2.2% — +0.0%	1.3%	$23.8K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $11	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.3¢ Vol $23.8K
JBP J.B. Pritzker	1.9% ↓ -0.3%	0.7%	$344.4K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $50	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $344.3K
DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.6% — +0.0%	—	$31.9K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $31.9K
WM Wes Moore	1.4% — +0.0%	1.2%	$71.5K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $26	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $71.5K
RD Ron DeSantis	1.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$39.5K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $38	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $39.4K
IT Ivanka Trump	1.3% — +0.0%	—	$10.9K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $10.9K
TC Tucker Carlson	1.2% — +0.0%	—	$26.3K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $26.3K
GW Gretchen Whitmer	1.1% — +0.0%	1.5%	$37.4K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $252	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $37.2K
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.0% — +0.0%	0.4%	$129.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $129.7K
JD Jamie Dimon	1.0% — +0.0%	0.4%	$46.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $46.0K
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	1.0% — +0.0%	0.5%	$124.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $124.8K
EM Elon Musk	1.0% — +0.0%	—	$105.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $105.0K
SAS Stephen A. Smith	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$160.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $160.1K
NH Nikki Haley	0.9% — +0.0%	0.4%	$44.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $44.1K
GY Glenn Youngkin	0.9% — +0.0%	0.6%	$233.0K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $233.0K
LJ LeBron James	0.9% — +0.0%	—	$330.6K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $330.6K
TW Tim Walz	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.2%	$844.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $844.7K
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$205.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $205.6K
KK Kim Kardashian	0.8% — +0.0%	—	$233.4K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $233.4K
ZM Zohran Mamdani	0.8% — +0.0%	—	$133.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $133.0K
MO Michelle Obama	0.8% — +0.0%	—	$135.4K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $135.4K
GA Greg Abbott	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$349.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $349.9K

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 7.6¢	Sell @ K 10¢	+2.40%	+2.30%	Yes
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No
PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.9¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
JDV J.D. Vance	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 26¢	Sell @ K 26¢	+0.00%	-0.26%	No
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
JD Jamie Dimon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.4¢	Sell @ K 4¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.5¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.5¢	Sell @ K 3¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 6¢	Sell @ P 5¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No
GN Gavin Newsom	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 20¢	Sell @ P 19¢	-1.00%	-1.20%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
JDV J.D. Vance	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 1.8%	+23.65%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 2.2%	+23.30%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 2.5%	+23.05%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 3.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 3.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 3.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 2.9%	+22.65%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 3.4%	+22.10%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 4.5%	+22.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 4.3%	+21.20%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 5.5%	+21.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 5.5%	+20.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 7.6%	+17.95%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 19.5%	B 1.8%	+17.65%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 19.5%	B 2.2%	+17.30%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 19.5%	B 2.5%	+17.05%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 19.5%	B 2.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 19.5%	B 2.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 19.5%	B 2.9%	+16.65%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 19.5%	B 3.4%	+16.10%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 10.5%	+16.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 19.5%	B 3.5%	+16.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 19.5%	B 3.5%	+16.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 19.5%	B 3.5%	+16.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 19.5%	B 4.3%	+15.20%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 19.5%	B 4.5%	+15.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 19.5%	B 5.5%	+14.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 19.5%	B 5.5%	+14.00%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.