Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets: Real-time Data & Volume Aggregator

Our live dashboard tracks the prediction market landscape in real-time, comparing Kalshi and Polymarket across the metrics that matter. Track daily, weekly and YTD volume across individual contracts. This includes active markets, transaction counts, and category-level breakdowns. Kalshi posted a record $2.9B in weekly notional volume for the week of March 9-15 ahead of March Madness as Polymarket dipped 6.1%. If you are looking for an exchange, see our list of prediction markets here.

Prediction markets are a real-time signal for everything from Fed decisions to election outcomes. Whether you’re comparing Kalshi vs. Polymarket for arbitrage opportunities or tracking which platform dominates specific categories, this is your central hub.

Live Data
Weekly Notional Volume Total USD value of contracts traded during the last complete calendar week.
$5.3B
K Kalshi
$2.9B (56%)
P Polymarket
$2.3B (44%)
U Polymarket US
$5.9M (0%)
Active Markets Number of prediction markets currently open for trading on each platform.
537,563
K Kalshi
501,271 (93%)
P Polymarket
35,557 (7%)
U Polymarket US
735 (0%)
Weekly Transactions Total number of trades executed during the last complete calendar week.
44,419,059
K Kalshi
19,747,251 (44%)
P Polymarket
24,671,808 (56%)
U Polymarket US
— (—)
Open Interest Total USD value of unsettled contracts currently held by traders.
$981.8M
K Kalshi
$497.0M (50%)
P Polymarket
$477.6M (49%)
U Polymarket US
$7.3M (1%)
Last updated: March 22, 2026 at 11:37 AM PDT

Kalshi
CFTC Regulated
Volume (rolling)
24H $223.4M -34.4%
7D $1.5B +19.9%
30D $6.6B +0.8%
Top Categories (24h)
1 ⚽ Sports $197.9M
2 ₿ Crypto $21.3M
3 🌍 World $1.9M
Top Markets (24h)
1
Vanderbilt at Nebraska
⚽ Sports $9.8M
2
Texas at Gonzaga
⚽ Sports $7.5M
3
High Point at Arkansas
⚽ Sports $7.4M
Polymarket
Decentralized Platform
Volume (rolling)
24H $370.6M -24.3%
7D $3.1B +13.9%
30D $10.9B +43.6%
Top Categories (24h)
1 ⚽ Sports $208.8M
2 ₿ Crypto $70.5M
3 🏛️ Politics $54.1M
Top Markets (24h)
1
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
🏛️ Politics $12.1M
2
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
🏛️ Politics $11.6M
3
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
⚽ Sports $5.2M

Top Markets by Volume

Highest trading activity across platforms

1
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 37%
$12.1M
$13.9M
Nov 6
Active
1

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 37%
Marco Rubio 28%
Tucker Carlson 4%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Mike Pence 1%
John Thune 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Joe Kent 1%
Volume
$12.1M
Open Int.
$13.9M
Ends
Nov 6
2
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 25%
$11.6M
$10.0M
Nov 6
Active
2

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Jon Ossoff 7%
Kamala Harris 5%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
J.B. Pritzker 3%
Andy Beshear 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Wes Moore 2%
Mark Kelly 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Gretchen Whitmer 2%
James Talarico 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
MrBeast 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
George Clooney 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Volume
$11.6M
Open Int.
$10.0M
Ends
Nov 6
3
Vanderbilt at Nebraska
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Nebraska Outcome
$9.8M
—
Mar 21
Closed
3

Vanderbilt at Nebraska

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Nebraska
Volume $9.8M
4
Texas at Gonzaga
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Texas Longhorns Outcome
$7.5M
—
Mar 21
Closed
4

Texas at Gonzaga

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Texas Longhorns
Volume $7.5M
5
High Point at Arkansas
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Arkansas Outcome
$7.4M
—
Mar 21
Closed
5

High Point at Arkansas

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Arkansas
Volume $7.4M
6
Louisville at Michigan St.
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Michigan State Spartans Outcome
$7.0M
—
Mar 21
Closed
6

Louisville at Michigan St.

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Michigan State Spartans
Volume $7.0M
7
TCU at Duke
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Duke Outcome
$6.8M
—
Mar 21
Closed
7

TCU at Duke

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Duke
Volume $6.8M
8
Los Angeles L at Orlando
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Los Angeles Lakers Outcome
$5.9M
—
Mar 21
Closed
8

Los Angeles L at Orlando

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Los Angeles Lakers
Volume $5.9M
9
Milwaukee at Phoenix
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Milwaukee Bucks Outcome
$5.9M
—
Mar 21
Closed
9

Milwaukee at Phoenix

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Milwaukee Bucks
Volume $5.9M
10
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 15%
$5.2M
$4.9M
Jul 19
Active
10

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 15%
England 13%
Argentina 11%
France 11%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 5%
Norway 3%
Netherlands 3%
Morocco 2%
South Alabama 2%
Colombia 2%
Italy 2%
Belgium 2%
Cape Verde 1%
Uzbekistan 1%
New Zealand 1%
Qatar 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Haiti 1%
Curaçao 1%
Japan 1%
South Korea 1%
Uruguay 1%
Egypt 1%
Croatia 1%
Switzerland 1%
Algeria 1%
Iran 1%
Ghana 1%
Scotland 1%
Jordan 1%
Canada 1%
Ecuador 1%
Austria 1%
South Africa 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Australia 1%
Senegal 1%
Tunisia 1%
Paraguay 1%
Mexico 1%
Volume
$5.2M
Open Int.
$4.9M
Ends
Jul 19
11
Saint Louis at Michigan
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Michigan Wolverines Outcome
$4.8M
—
Mar 21
Closed
11

Saint Louis at Michigan

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Michigan Wolverines
Volume $4.8M
12
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$65,000 51%
$4.3M
$12.6M
Mar 31
Active
12

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Active
$65,000 51%
$60,000 17%
$80,000 9%
$55,000 6%
$85,000 2%
$50,000 2%
$150,000 1%
$95,000 1%
$90,000 1%
$100,000 1%
$45,000 1%
$110,000 1%
$40,000 1%
$35,000 1%
$105,000 1%
$20,000 1%
$25,000 1%
$30,000 1%
Volume
$4.3M
Open Int.
$12.6M
Ends
Mar 31
13
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Illinois Fighting Illini Outcome
$4.1M
—
Mar 21
Closed
13

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Illinois Fighting Illini
Volume $4.1M
14
Miami at Houston
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Houston Outcome
$4.1M
—
Mar 21
Closed
14

Miami at Houston

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Houston
Volume $4.1M
15
F1 Drivers' Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Will George Russell be the 2026 56%
$4.0M
$858.7K
Dec 5
Active
15

F1 Drivers' Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Will George Russell be the 2026 56%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 18%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 7%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 6%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 5%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 2%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 1%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 1%
Volume
$4.0M
Open Int.
$858.7K
Ends
Dec 5
16
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Cavaliers Outcome
$3.6M
—
Mar 21
Closed
16

Cavaliers vs. Pelicans

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Cavaliers
Volume $3.6M
17
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 20%
$3.4M
$34.1M
Nov 6
Active
17

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 20%
Gavin Newsom 18%
Marco Rubio 12%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Jon Ossoff 4%
Donald Trump 3%
Tucker Carlson 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%
JB Pritzker 2%
Josh Shapiro 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Andy Beshear 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
James Talarico 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Thomas Massie 1%
Volume
$3.4M
Open Int.
$34.1M
Ends
Nov 6
18
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 65%
$3.4M
$352.6K
Apr 11
Active
18

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 65%
Fidesz–KDNP 36%
the Momentum Movement (Momentum) 1%
Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) 1%
the Democratic Coalition (DK) 1%
LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) 1%
the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) 1%
Volume
$3.4M
Open Int.
$352.6K
Ends
Apr 11
19
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 69%
$3.3M
$10.4M
May 30
Active
19

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 69%
June 30 56%
May 31 49%
April 30 38%
April 15 28%
March 31 9%
Volume
$3.3M
Open Int.
$10.4M
Ends
May 30
20
# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 100%
$3.1M
$811.5K
Mar 30
Active
20

# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1 1%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1 1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 1%
Volume
$3.1M
Open Int.
$811.5K
Ends
Mar 30
21
Netanyahu out by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
end of 2026 48%
$3.1M
$23.9M
Dec 30
Active
21

Netanyahu out by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
end of 2026 48%
June 30 11%
April 30 4%
March 31 1%
Volume
$3.1M
Open Int.
$23.9M
Ends
Dec 30
22
TCU at Duke: Spread
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Duke by over 1.5 Outcome
$3.1M
—
Mar 21
Closed
22

TCU at Duke: Spread

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Duke by over 1.5
Volume $3.1M
23
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Texas Longhorns Outcome
$3.1M
—
Mar 21
Closed
23

Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Texas Longhorns
Volume $3.1M
24
Los Angeles C at Dallas
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Los Angeles Clippers Outcome
$3.0M
—
Mar 21
Closed
24

Los Angeles C at Dallas

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Los Angeles Clippers
Volume $3.0M
25
Warriors vs. Hawks
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Hawks Outcome
$2.9M
—
Mar 21
Closed
25

Warriors vs. Hawks

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Hawks
Volume $2.9M
26
Louisville at Michigan St.: Spread
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Michigan State by over 3.5 Outcome
$2.8M
—
Mar 21
Closed
26

Louisville at Michigan St.: Spread

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Michigan State by over 3.5
Volume $2.8M
27
VCU at Illinois
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Illinois Fighting Illini Outcome
$2.7M
—
Mar 21
Closed
27

VCU at Illinois

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Illinois Fighting Illini
Volume $2.7M
28
Philadelphia at Utah
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Philadelphia 76ers Outcome
$2.7M
—
Mar 21
Closed
28

Philadelphia at Utah

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Philadelphia 76ers
Volume $2.7M
29
Cleveland at New Orleans
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers Outcome
$2.7M
—
Mar 21
Closed
29

Cleveland at New Orleans

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Cleveland Cavaliers
Volume $2.7M
30
Saint Louis at Michigan: Spread
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Michigan +12.5 pts Outcome
$2.6M
—
Mar 21
Closed
30

Saint Louis at Michigan: Spread

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Michigan +12.5 pts
Volume $2.6M
1
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 25%
$54.9M
$10.0M
Nov 6
Active
1

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Jon Ossoff 7%
Kamala Harris 5%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
J.B. Pritzker 3%
Andy Beshear 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Wes Moore 2%
Mark Kelly 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Gretchen Whitmer 2%
James Talarico 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
MrBeast 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
George Clooney 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Volume
$54.9M
Open Int.
$10.0M
Ends
Nov 6
2
Netanyahu out by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
end of 2026 48%
$47.1M
$23.9M
Dec 30
Active
2

Netanyahu out by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
end of 2026 48%
June 30 11%
April 30 4%
March 31 1%
Volume
$47.1M
Open Int.
$23.9M
Ends
Dec 30
3
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 15%
$46.8M
$4.9M
Jul 19
Active
3

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 15%
England 13%
Argentina 11%
France 11%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 5%
Norway 3%
Netherlands 3%
Morocco 2%
South Alabama 2%
Colombia 2%
Italy 2%
Belgium 2%
Cape Verde 1%
Uzbekistan 1%
New Zealand 1%
Qatar 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Haiti 1%
Curaçao 1%
Japan 1%
South Korea 1%
Uruguay 1%
Egypt 1%
Croatia 1%
Switzerland 1%
Algeria 1%
Iran 1%
Ghana 1%
Scotland 1%
Jordan 1%
Canada 1%
Ecuador 1%
Austria 1%
South Africa 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Australia 1%
Senegal 1%
Tunisia 1%
Paraguay 1%
Mexico 1%
Volume
$46.8M
Open Int.
$4.9M
Ends
Jul 19
4
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 37%
$41.3M
$13.9M
Nov 6
Active
4

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 37%
Marco Rubio 28%
Tucker Carlson 4%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Mike Pence 1%
John Thune 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Joe Kent 1%
Volume
$41.3M
Open Int.
$13.9M
Ends
Nov 6
5
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 20%
$29.4M
$34.1M
Nov 6
Active
5

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 20%
Gavin Newsom 18%
Marco Rubio 12%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Jon Ossoff 4%
Donald Trump 3%
Tucker Carlson 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%
JB Pritzker 2%
Josh Shapiro 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Andy Beshear 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
James Talarico 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Thomas Massie 1%
Volume
$29.4M
Open Int.
$34.1M
Ends
Nov 6
6
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$65,000 51%
$27.1M
$12.6M
Mar 31
Active
6

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Active
$65,000 51%
$60,000 17%
$80,000 9%
$55,000 6%
$85,000 2%
$50,000 2%
$150,000 1%
$95,000 1%
$90,000 1%
$100,000 1%
$45,000 1%
$110,000 1%
$40,000 1%
$35,000 1%
$105,000 1%
$20,000 1%
$25,000 1%
$30,000 1%
Volume
$27.1M
Open Int.
$12.6M
Ends
Mar 31
7
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
$19.2M
$2.2M
Jun 30
Active
7

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
San Antonio Spurs 14%
Boston Celtics 12%
Denver Nuggets 8%
Los Angeles Lakers 5%
Cleveland Cavaliers 5%
New York Knicks 5%
Detroit Pistons 4%
Los Angeles Clippers 2%
Houston Rockets 2%
Minnesota Timberwolves 2%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Chicago Bulls 1%
Memphis Grizzlies 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Miami Heat 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
New Orleans Pelicans 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Charlotte Hornets 1%
Milwaukee Bucks 1%
Dallas Mavericks 1%
Volume
$19.2M
Open Int.
$2.2M
Ends
Jun 30
8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
$100 73%
$17.6M
$10.9M
Mar 30
Active
8

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
$100 73%
$105 57%
$110 37%
$120 22%
$90 21%
$85 12%
$130 11%
$80 6%
$140 5%
$150 4%
$75 3%
$180 2%
$70 2%
$200 1%
$65 1%
$60 1%
$45 1%
$55 1%
$50 1%
$40 1%
Volume
$17.6M
Open Int.
$10.9M
Ends
Mar 30
9
F1 Drivers' Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Will George Russell be the 2026 56%
$14.9M
$858.7K
Dec 5
Active
9

F1 Drivers' Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Will George Russell be the 2026 56%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 18%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 7%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 6%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 5%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 2%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 1%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 1%
Volume
$14.9M
Open Int.
$858.7K
Ends
Dec 5
10
2026 NCAA Tournament Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Michigan 21%
$14.1M
$1.0M
Apr 3
Active
10

2026 NCAA Tournament Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Michigan 21%
Arizona 20%
Duke 17%
Florida 10%
Houston 8%
Purdue 5%
Iowa State 4%
Illinois 4%
Connecticut 3%
Michigan State 2%
St. John's 2%
Arkansas 2%
Alabama 1%
Miami (FL) 1%
UCLA 1%
Kansas 1%
Kentucky 1%
Tennessee 1%
Virginia 1%
Nebraska 1%
Texas Tech 1%
Utah State 1%
Iowa 1%
Texas 1%
Volume
$14.1M
Open Int.
$1.0M
Ends
Apr 3
11
Men's College Basketball Champion
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Michigan 21%
$12.3M
$92.3M
Apr 21
Active
11

Men's College Basketball Champion

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Active
Michigan 21%
Arizona 20%
Duke 18%
Florida 10%
Houston 7%
Purdue 5%
Illinois 5%
Iowa State 4%
Arkansas 3%
St. John's 3%
UConn 3%
Michigan State 3%
Nebraska 2%
Tennessee 2%
UCLA 1%
Kansas 1%
Virginia 1%
Alabama 1%
Texas Tech 1%
Kentucky 1%
Texas 1%
Miami (FL) 1%
Iowa 1%
Utah State 1%
Volume
$12.3M
Open Int.
$92.3M
Ends
Apr 21
12
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 69%
$11.9M
$10.4M
May 30
Active
12

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 69%
June 30 56%
May 31 49%
April 30 38%
April 15 28%
March 31 9%
Volume
$11.9M
Open Int.
$10.4M
Ends
May 30
13
Fed decision in April?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting 95%
$11.6M
$3.4M
Apr 28
Active
13

Fed decision in April?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting 95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting 4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$11.6M
Open Int.
$3.4M
Ends
Apr 28
14
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 2%
$11.3M
$15.1M
Mar 30
Active
14

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 2%
Volume
$11.3M
Open Int.
$15.1M
Ends
Mar 30
15
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 65%
$9.5M
$352.6K
Apr 11
Active
15

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 65%
Fidesz–KDNP 36%
the Momentum Movement (Momentum) 1%
Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) 1%
the Democratic Coalition (DK) 1%
LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) 1%
the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) 1%
Volume
$9.5M
Open Int.
$352.6K
Ends
Apr 11
16
US forces enter Iran by..?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 70%
$9.2M
$5.9M
Dec 30
Active
16

US forces enter Iran by..?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 70%
April 30 60%
March 31 19%
Volume
$9.2M
Open Int.
$5.9M
Ends
Dec 30
17
Eurovision Winner 2026
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
Finland 38%
$8.6M
$710.3K
May 15
Active
17

Eurovision Winner 2026

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Finland 38%
Denmark 13%
France 13%
Greece 7%
Australia 5%
Israel 4%
Sweden 4%
Ukraine 3%
Italy 2%
Albania 1%
Estonia 1%
Azerbaijan 1%
Portugal 1%
Poland 1%
United Kingdom 1%
Montenegro 1%
Lithuania 1%
Austria 1%
Armenia 1%
Latvia 1%
Switzerland 1%
Georgia 1%
San Marino 1%
Bulgaria 1%
Czechia 1%
Cyprus 1%
Croatia 1%
Belgium 1%
Norway 1%
Romania 1%
Serbia 1%
Malta 1%
Germany 1%
Moldova 1%
Luxembourg 1%
Volume
$8.6M
Open Int.
$710.3K
Ends
May 15
18
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Scottie Scheffler 18%
$8.5M
$473.3K
Apr 12
Active
18

Augusta National Invitational - Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Scottie Scheffler 18%
Rory McIlroy 9%
Ludvig Aberg 6%
Bryson Dechambeau 6%
Jon Rahm 6%
Xander Schauffele 4%
Tommy Fleetwood 4%
Matt Fitzpatrick 3%
Justin Rose 3%
Cameron Young 3%
Viktor Hovland 2%
Akshay Bhatia 2%
Jordan Spieth 2%
Robert MacIntyre 2%
Hideki Matsuyama 2%
Brooks Koepka 2%
Collin Morikawa 2%
Joaquin Niemann 2%
Patrick Reed 2%
Tiger Woods 1%
Tom Kim 1%
Taylor Pendrith 1%
Zach Johnson 1%
Denny McCarthy 1%
Adam Scott 1%
Fred Couples 1%
Rasmus Hojgaard 1%
Aaron Rai 1%
Danny Willett 1%
Will Zalatoris 1%
Billy Horschel 1%
Keegan Bradley 1%
Jason Day 1%
Charl Schwartzel 1%
Shane Lowry 1%
Sergio Garcia 1%
Sahith Theegala 1%
Byeong Hun An 1%
Corey Conners 1%
Min Woo Lee 1%
Davis Thompson 1%
Sepp Straka 1%
Russell Henley 1%
Tony Finau 1%
Brian Harman 1%
Cameron Smith 1%
Tyrrell Hatton 1%
Justin Thomas 1%
Sam Burns 1%
Patrick Cantlay 1%
Phil Mickelson 1%
Thomas Detry 1%
Maverick McNealy 1%
Wyndham Clark 1%
Bubba Watson 1%
Max Homa 1%
Sungjae Im 1%
Dustin Johnson 1%
Nicolai Hojgaard 1%
Volume
$8.5M
Open Int.
$473.3K
Ends
Apr 12
19
UEFA Champions League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 28%
$8.1M
$1.9M
May 30
Active
19

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 28%
Bayern Munich 22%
Barcelona 17%
PSG 13%
Real Madrid 11%
Liverpool 8%
Atletico Madrid 4%
Sporting 1%
Club Brugge 1%
Volume
$8.1M
Open Int.
$1.9M
Ends
May 30
20
NBA MVP
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 88%
$6.7M
$700.3K
Jun 9
Active
20

NBA MVP

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 88%
Luka Doncic 8%
Nikola Jokic 2%
Victor Wembanyama 2%
Cade Cunningham 1%
Anthony Edwards 1%
Tyrese Maxey 1%
Jaylen Brown 1%
Cooper Flagg 1%
Donovan Mitchell 1%
Giannis Antetokounmpo 1%
Jalen Brunson 1%
Kawhi Leonard 1%
Kevin Durant 1%
Devin Booker 1%
Ja Morant 1%
Stephen Curry 1%
LeBron James 1%
Joel Embiid 1%
Trae Young 1%
Paolo Banchero 1%
Anthony Davis 1%
Volume
$6.7M
Open Int.
$700.3K
Ends
Jun 9
21
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Colorado Avalanche 22%
$6.3M
$620.2K
Jun 29
Active
21

2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Colorado Avalanche 22%
Tampa Bay Lightning 14%
Carolina Hurricanes 11%
Dallas Stars 8%
Edmonton Oilers 7%
Buffalo Sabres 6%
Vegas Golden Knights 6%
Minnesota Wild 4%
Montreal Canadiens 3%
Columbus Blue Jackets 3%
Pittsburgh Penguins 3%
Utah Mammoth 3%
Ottawa Senators 3%
New York Islanders 2%
Anaheim Ducks 2%
San Jose Sharks 1%
Toronto Maple Leafs 1%
Florida Panthers 1%
Chicago Blackhawks 1%
Winnipeg Jets 1%
Philadelphia Flyers 1%
Nashville Predators 1%
Boston Bruins 1%
Washington Capitals 1%
New Jersey Devils 1%
Los Angeles Kings 1%
New York Rangers 1%
Seattle Kraken 1%
Detroit Red Wings 1%
Calgary Flames 1%
Vancouver Canucks 1%
St. Louis Blues 1%
Volume
$6.3M
Open Int.
$620.2K
Ends
Jun 29
22
Valspar Championship Winner?
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Sungjae Im 44%
$6.2M
$22.5M
Apr 4
Active
22

Valspar Championship Winner?

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Active
Sungjae Im 44%
Matt Fitzpatrick 20%
David Lipsky 11%
Brandt Snedeker 10%
Marco Penge 10%
Xander Schauffele 2%
Corey Conners 2%
Seonghyeon Kim 2%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart 2%
Brooks Koepka 1%
Jordan Spieth 1%
Jacob Bridgeman 1%
Ryo Hisatsune 1%
Billy Horschel 1%
Justin Thomas 1%
Tom Kim 1%
Nicolai Hojgaard 1%
Patrick Cantlay 1%
Blades Brown 1%
Chandler Blanchet 1%
Matthieu Pavon 1%
Jordan L. Smith 1%
Keegan Bradley 1%
Doug Ghim 1%
Andrew Putnam 1%
Tony Finau 1%
Ricky Castillo 1%
Pierceson Coody 1%
Stephan Jaeger 1%
Alex Smalley 1%
Bud Cauley 1%
Patrick Rodgers 1%
Gary Woodland 1%
Davis Thompson 1%
Denny McCarthy 1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 1%
Rico Hoey 1%
Hank Lebioda 1%
Danny Walker 1%
David Ford 1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1%
Matti Schmid 1%
Chad Ramey 1%
Lee Hodges 1%
Mackenzie Hughes 1%
Patrick Fishburn 1%
Kevin Streelman 1%
Andrew Novak 1%
Joel Dahmen 1%
Sam Ryder 1%
A.J. Ewart 1%
Chandler Phillips 1%
Seamus Power 1%
Rasmus Hojgaard 1%
Michael Kim 1%
Emiliano Grillo 1%
Alejandro Tosti 1%
Webb Simpson 1%
Kevin Yu 1%
Matt Wallace 1%
Kevin Roy 1%
Dylan Wu 1%
Kensei Hirata 1%
John Parry 1%
Vince Whaley 1%
Takumi Kanaya 1%
Jimmy Stanger 1%
David Skinns 1%
Isaiah Salinda 1%
Davis Chatfield 1%
Henrik Norlander 1%
John VanDerLaan 1%
Karl Vilips 1%
Justin Lower 1%
Volume
$6.2M
Open Int.
$22.5M
Ends
Apr 4
23
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Illinois Fighting Illini Outcome
$6.1M
—
Mar 21
Closed
23

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Illinois Fighting Illini
Volume $6.1M
24
What price will Ethereum hit in March?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$2,400 20%
$6.1M
$3.4M
Mar 31
Active
24

What price will Ethereum hit in March?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Active
$2,400 20%
$1,800 19%
$1,600 6%
$2,600 5%
$2,800 2%
$1,400 2%
$4,000 1%
$200 1%
$3,000 1%
$1,200 1%
$3,200 1%
$1,000 1%
$400 1%
$3,800 1%
$3,600 1%
$3,400 1%
$800 1%
$600 1%
Volume
$6.1M
Open Int.
$3.4M
Ends
Mar 31
25
Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
Kalshi 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 29%
$5.7M
$46.1M
Nov 7
Active
25

Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Kalshi
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 29%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Jon Ossoff 7%
Josh Shapiro 7%
Kamala Harris 5%
James Talarico 4%
Andy Beshear 4%
J.B. Pritzker 4%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Rahm Emanuel 3%
Mark Kelly 3%
Ro Khanna 3%
Wes Moore 3%
Michelle Obama 2%
Stephen A. Smith 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Gretchen Whitmer 2%
Chris Murphy 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Cory Booker 2%
Raphael Warnock 2%
Mark Cuban 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Barack Obama 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Elissa Slotkin 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Dwayne Johnson 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Lebron James 1%
Volume
$5.7M
Open Int.
$46.1M
Ends
Nov 7
26
Elon Musk # tweets March 17 - March 24, 2026?
Polymarket 🔬 Tech
380–399 21%
$5.5M
$596.9K
Mar 24
Closing Soon
26

Elon Musk # tweets March 17 - March 24, 2026?

Polymarket
🔬 Tech Closing Soon
380–399 21%
400–419 19%
360–379 16%
420–439 16%
440–459 11%
460–479 6%
340–359 6%
480–499 2%
March 24, 2026 1%
280–299 1%
300–319 1%
540–559 1%
560–579 1%
520–539 1%
320–339 1%
500–519 1%
Volume
$5.5M
Open Int.
$596.9K
Ends
Mar 24
27
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Texas Longhorns Outcome
$5.4M
—
Mar 21
Closed
27

Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Texas Longhorns
Volume $5.4M
28
Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
the Freedom Movement (GS) 60%
$4.3M
$614.4K
Mar 30
Active
28

Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
the Freedom Movement (GS) 60%
the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) 41%
the Democrats (D) 1%
Resni.ca (Res) 1%
the Social Democrats (SD) 1%
New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) 1%
Our Country (ND) 1%
The Left (Levica) 1%
the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) 1%
Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) 1%
the Slovenian National Party (SNS) 1%
Volume
$4.3M
Open Int.
$614.4K
Ends
Mar 30
29
Largest Company end of March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
NVIDIA 99%
$4.2M
$971.5K
Mar 30
Active
29

Largest Company end of March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Active
NVIDIA 99%
Tesla 1%
Amazon 1%
Saudi Aramco 1%
Microsoft 1%
Alphabet 1%
Apple 1%
Volume
$4.2M
Open Int.
$971.5K
Ends
Mar 30
30
Next US Presidential Election Winner?
Kalshi 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 20%
$3.9M
$18.5M
Nov 7
Active
30

Next US Presidential Election Winner?

Kalshi
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 20%
J.D. Vance 19%
Marco Rubio 16%
Jon Ossoff 5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Donald J. Trump 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Josh Shapiro 3%
Stephen A. Smith 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
Wes Moore 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Gretchen Whitmer 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Donald J. Trump Jr. 2%
Mark Kelly 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Volume
$3.9M
Open Int.
$18.5M
Ends
Nov 7
1
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 25%
$190.7M
$10.0M
Nov 6
Active
1

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Jon Ossoff 7%
Kamala Harris 5%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
J.B. Pritzker 3%
Andy Beshear 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Wes Moore 2%
Mark Kelly 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Gretchen Whitmer 2%
James Talarico 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
MrBeast 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
George Clooney 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Volume
$190.7M
Open Int.
$10.0M
Ends
Nov 6
2
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 15%
$172.4M
$4.9M
Jul 19
Active
2

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 15%
England 13%
Argentina 11%
France 11%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 5%
Norway 3%
Netherlands 3%
Morocco 2%
South Alabama 2%
Colombia 2%
Italy 2%
Belgium 2%
Cape Verde 1%
Uzbekistan 1%
New Zealand 1%
Qatar 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Haiti 1%
Curaçao 1%
Japan 1%
South Korea 1%
Uruguay 1%
Egypt 1%
Croatia 1%
Switzerland 1%
Algeria 1%
Iran 1%
Ghana 1%
Scotland 1%
Jordan 1%
Canada 1%
Ecuador 1%
Austria 1%
South Africa 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Australia 1%
Senegal 1%
Tunisia 1%
Paraguay 1%
Mexico 1%
Volume
$172.4M
Open Int.
$4.9M
Ends
Jul 19
3
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 37%
$140.7M
$13.9M
Nov 6
Active
3

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 37%
Marco Rubio 28%
Tucker Carlson 4%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Mike Pence 1%
John Thune 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Joe Kent 1%
Volume
$140.7M
Open Int.
$13.9M
Ends
Nov 6
4
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 20%
$124.5M
$34.1M
Nov 6
Active
4

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 20%
Gavin Newsom 18%
Marco Rubio 12%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Jon Ossoff 4%
Donald Trump 3%
Tucker Carlson 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%
JB Pritzker 2%
Josh Shapiro 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Andy Beshear 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
James Talarico 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Thomas Massie 1%
Volume
$124.5M
Open Int.
$34.1M
Ends
Nov 6
5
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
$77.9M
$2.2M
Jun 30
Active
5

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
San Antonio Spurs 14%
Boston Celtics 12%
Denver Nuggets 8%
Los Angeles Lakers 5%
Cleveland Cavaliers 5%
New York Knicks 5%
Detroit Pistons 4%
Los Angeles Clippers 2%
Houston Rockets 2%
Minnesota Timberwolves 2%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Chicago Bulls 1%
Memphis Grizzlies 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Miami Heat 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
New Orleans Pelicans 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Charlotte Hornets 1%
Milwaukee Bucks 1%
Dallas Mavericks 1%
Volume
$77.9M
Open Int.
$2.2M
Ends
Jun 30
6
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$65,000 51%
$65.6M
$12.6M
Mar 31
Active
6

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Active
$65,000 51%
$60,000 17%
$80,000 9%
$55,000 6%
$85,000 2%
$50,000 2%
$150,000 1%
$95,000 1%
$90,000 1%
$100,000 1%
$45,000 1%
$110,000 1%
$40,000 1%
$35,000 1%
$105,000 1%
$20,000 1%
$25,000 1%
$30,000 1%
Volume
$65.6M
Open Int.
$12.6M
Ends
Mar 31
7
Netanyahu out by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
end of 2026 48%
$59.9M
$23.9M
Dec 30
Active
7

Netanyahu out by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
end of 2026 48%
June 30 11%
April 30 4%
March 31 1%
Volume
$59.9M
Open Int.
$23.9M
Ends
Dec 30
8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
$100 73%
$48.3M
$10.9M
Mar 30
Active
8

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
$100 73%
$105 57%
$110 37%
$120 22%
$90 21%
$85 12%
$130 11%
$80 6%
$140 5%
$150 4%
$75 3%
$180 2%
$70 2%
$200 1%
$65 1%
$60 1%
$45 1%
$55 1%
$50 1%
$40 1%
Volume
$48.3M
Open Int.
$10.9M
Ends
Mar 30
9
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Scottie Scheffler 18%
$46.8M
$473.3K
Apr 12
Active
9

Augusta National Invitational - Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Scottie Scheffler 18%
Rory McIlroy 9%
Ludvig Aberg 6%
Bryson Dechambeau 6%
Jon Rahm 6%
Xander Schauffele 4%
Tommy Fleetwood 4%
Matt Fitzpatrick 3%
Justin Rose 3%
Cameron Young 3%
Viktor Hovland 2%
Akshay Bhatia 2%
Jordan Spieth 2%
Robert MacIntyre 2%
Hideki Matsuyama 2%
Brooks Koepka 2%
Collin Morikawa 2%
Joaquin Niemann 2%
Patrick Reed 2%
Tiger Woods 1%
Tom Kim 1%
Taylor Pendrith 1%
Zach Johnson 1%
Denny McCarthy 1%
Adam Scott 1%
Fred Couples 1%
Rasmus Hojgaard 1%
Aaron Rai 1%
Danny Willett 1%
Will Zalatoris 1%
Billy Horschel 1%
Keegan Bradley 1%
Jason Day 1%
Charl Schwartzel 1%
Shane Lowry 1%
Sergio Garcia 1%
Sahith Theegala 1%
Byeong Hun An 1%
Corey Conners 1%
Min Woo Lee 1%
Davis Thompson 1%
Sepp Straka 1%
Russell Henley 1%
Tony Finau 1%
Brian Harman 1%
Cameron Smith 1%
Tyrrell Hatton 1%
Justin Thomas 1%
Sam Burns 1%
Patrick Cantlay 1%
Phil Mickelson 1%
Thomas Detry 1%
Maverick McNealy 1%
Wyndham Clark 1%
Bubba Watson 1%
Max Homa 1%
Sungjae Im 1%
Dustin Johnson 1%
Nicolai Hojgaard 1%
Volume
$46.8M
Open Int.
$473.3K
Ends
Apr 12
10
La Liga Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Barcelona 84%
$44.8M
$695.8K
May 29
Active
10

La Liga Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Barcelona 84%
Real Madrid 17%
Atletico Madrid 1%
Villarreal 1%
Celta Vigo 1%
Betis 1%
Volume
$44.8M
Open Int.
$695.8K
Ends
May 29
11
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 2%
$39.4M
$15.1M
Mar 30
Active
11

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 2%
Volume
$39.4M
Open Int.
$15.1M
Ends
Mar 30
12
F1 Drivers' Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Will George Russell be the 2026 56%
$35.2M
$858.7K
Dec 5
Active
12

F1 Drivers' Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Will George Russell be the 2026 56%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 18%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 7%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 6%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 5%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 2%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 1%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 1%
Volume
$35.2M
Open Int.
$858.7K
Ends
Dec 5
13
NBA MVP
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 88%
$35.0M
$700.3K
Jun 9
Active
13

NBA MVP

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 88%
Luka Doncic 8%
Nikola Jokic 2%
Victor Wembanyama 2%
Cade Cunningham 1%
Anthony Edwards 1%
Tyrese Maxey 1%
Jaylen Brown 1%
Cooper Flagg 1%
Donovan Mitchell 1%
Giannis Antetokounmpo 1%
Jalen Brunson 1%
Kawhi Leonard 1%
Kevin Durant 1%
Devin Booker 1%
Ja Morant 1%
Stephen Curry 1%
LeBron James 1%
Joel Embiid 1%
Trae Young 1%
Paolo Banchero 1%
Anthony Davis 1%
Volume
$35.0M
Open Int.
$700.3K
Ends
Jun 9
14
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Delcy Rodríguez 62%
$27.1M
$509.0K
Dec 30
Active
14

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Delcy Rodríguez 62%
Nicolás Maduro 15%
María Corina Machado 13%
Edmundo González 2%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón 1%
Donald Trump 1%
Frank Donovan 1%
Vladimir Padrino López 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026 1%
Jorge Rodríguez 1%
Dinorah Figuera 1%
Richard Grenell 1%
Evan Pettus 1%
Dan Caine 1%
Volume
$27.1M
Open Int.
$509.0K
Ends
Dec 30
15
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 69%
$25.8M
$10.4M
May 30
Active
15

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 69%
June 30 56%
May 31 49%
April 30 38%
April 15 28%
March 31 9%
Volume
$25.8M
Open Int.
$10.4M
Ends
May 30
16
Eurovision Winner 2026
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
Finland 38%
$23.4M
$710.3K
May 15
Active
16

Eurovision Winner 2026

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Finland 38%
Denmark 13%
France 13%
Greece 7%
Australia 5%
Israel 4%
Sweden 4%
Ukraine 3%
Italy 2%
Albania 1%
Estonia 1%
Azerbaijan 1%
Portugal 1%
Poland 1%
United Kingdom 1%
Montenegro 1%
Lithuania 1%
Austria 1%
Armenia 1%
Latvia 1%
Switzerland 1%
Georgia 1%
San Marino 1%
Bulgaria 1%
Czechia 1%
Cyprus 1%
Croatia 1%
Belgium 1%
Norway 1%
Romania 1%
Serbia 1%
Malta 1%
Germany 1%
Moldova 1%
Luxembourg 1%
Volume
$23.4M
Open Int.
$710.3K
Ends
May 15
17
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Colorado Avalanche 22%
$21.3M
$620.2K
Jun 29
Active
17

2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Colorado Avalanche 22%
Tampa Bay Lightning 14%
Carolina Hurricanes 11%
Dallas Stars 8%
Edmonton Oilers 7%
Buffalo Sabres 6%
Vegas Golden Knights 6%
Minnesota Wild 4%
Montreal Canadiens 3%
Columbus Blue Jackets 3%
Pittsburgh Penguins 3%
Utah Mammoth 3%
Ottawa Senators 3%
New York Islanders 2%
Anaheim Ducks 2%
San Jose Sharks 1%
Toronto Maple Leafs 1%
Florida Panthers 1%
Chicago Blackhawks 1%
Winnipeg Jets 1%
Philadelphia Flyers 1%
Nashville Predators 1%
Boston Bruins 1%
Washington Capitals 1%
New Jersey Devils 1%
Los Angeles Kings 1%
New York Rangers 1%
Seattle Kraken 1%
Detroit Red Wings 1%
Calgary Flames 1%
Vancouver Canucks 1%
St. Louis Blues 1%
Volume
$21.3M
Open Int.
$620.2K
Ends
Jun 29
18
US forces enter Iran by..?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 70%
$20.1M
$5.9M
Dec 30
Active
18

US forces enter Iran by..?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 70%
April 30 60%
March 31 19%
Volume
$20.1M
Open Int.
$5.9M
Ends
Dec 30
19
UEFA Champions League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 28%
$19.9M
$1.9M
May 30
Active
19

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 28%
Bayern Munich 22%
Barcelona 17%
PSG 13%
Real Madrid 11%
Liverpool 8%
Atletico Madrid 4%
Sporting 1%
Club Brugge 1%
Volume
$19.9M
Open Int.
$1.9M
Ends
May 30
20
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30 24%
$18.3M
$7.2M
Jun 29
Active
20

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30 24%
Volume
$18.3M
Open Int.
$7.2M
Ends
Jun 29
21
Fed decision in April?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting 95%
$16.9M
$3.4M
Apr 28
Active
21

Fed decision in April?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting 95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting 4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$16.9M
Open Int.
$3.4M
Ends
Apr 28
22
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 65%
$16.7M
$352.6K
Apr 11
Active
22

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 65%
Fidesz–KDNP 36%
the Momentum Movement (Momentum) 1%
Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) 1%
the Democratic Coalition (DK) 1%
LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) 1%
the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) 1%
Volume
$16.7M
Open Int.
$352.6K
Ends
Apr 11
23
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
No 96%
$16.1M
$1.9M
Dec 30
Active
23

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Yes 4%
No 96%
Volume
$16.1M
Open Int.
$1.9M
Ends
Dec 30
24
2026 NCAA Tournament Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Michigan 21%
$15.9M
$1.0M
Apr 3
Active
24

2026 NCAA Tournament Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Michigan 21%
Arizona 20%
Duke 17%
Florida 10%
Houston 8%
Purdue 5%
Iowa State 4%
Illinois 4%
Connecticut 3%
Michigan State 2%
St. John's 2%
Arkansas 2%
Alabama 1%
Miami (FL) 1%
UCLA 1%
Kansas 1%
Kentucky 1%
Tennessee 1%
Virginia 1%
Nebraska 1%
Texas Tech 1%
Utah State 1%
Iowa 1%
Texas 1%
Volume
$15.9M
Open Int.
$1.0M
Ends
Apr 3
25
What price will Ethereum hit in March?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$2,400 20%
$15.6M
$3.4M
Mar 31
Active
25

What price will Ethereum hit in March?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Active
$2,400 20%
$1,800 19%
$1,600 6%
$2,600 5%
$2,800 2%
$1,400 2%
$4,000 1%
$200 1%
$3,000 1%
$1,200 1%
$3,200 1%
$1,000 1%
$400 1%
$3,800 1%
$3,600 1%
$3,400 1%
$800 1%
$600 1%
Volume
$15.6M
Open Int.
$3.4M
Ends
Mar 31
26
English Premier League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 90%
$15.1M
$1.8M
May 26
Active
26

English Premier League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 90%
Manchester City 9%
Manchester United 1%
Liverpool 1%
Aston Villa 1%
Volume
$15.1M
Open Int.
$1.8M
Ends
May 26
27
Men's College Basketball Champion
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Michigan 21%
$15.0M
$92.3M
Apr 21
Active
27

Men's College Basketball Champion

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Active
Michigan 21%
Arizona 20%
Duke 18%
Florida 10%
Houston 7%
Purdue 5%
Illinois 5%
Iowa State 4%
Arkansas 3%
St. John's 3%
UConn 3%
Michigan State 3%
Nebraska 2%
Tennessee 2%
UCLA 1%
Kansas 1%
Virginia 1%
Alabama 1%
Texas Tech 1%
Kentucky 1%
Texas 1%
Miami (FL) 1%
Iowa 1%
Utah State 1%
Volume
$15.0M
Open Int.
$92.3M
Ends
Apr 21
28
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027 17%
$13.7M
$5.4M
Dec 30
Active
28

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027 17%
March 31 1%
Volume
$13.7M
Open Int.
$5.4M
Ends
Dec 30
29
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the 64%
$12.8M
$3.0M
Apr 11
Active
29

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the 64%
Volume
$12.8M
Open Int.
$3.0M
Ends
Apr 11
30
Largest Company end of March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
NVIDIA 99%
$12.3M
$971.5K
Mar 30
Active
30

Largest Company end of March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Active
NVIDIA 99%
Tesla 1%
Amazon 1%
Saudi Aramco 1%
Microsoft 1%
Alphabet 1%
Apple 1%
Volume
$12.3M
Open Int.
$971.5K
Ends
Mar 30

Category Breakdown

Compare volume and activity across platforms by category

K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics26,658$1.8M-4.2%
Sports454,857$197.9M-34.1%
Crypto4,547$21.3M-44%
Economics3,139$859.9K-34%
Finance590$20.1K-93.6%
Tech507$54.4K-21.2%
Culture6,090$384.6K-6.4%
Weather2,178$948.7K-2.6%
Misc663$17.9K-18.2%
World49,333$1.9M-40.4%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics5,378$54.1M+6.5%
Sports17,721$208.8M-17.5%
Crypto6,296$70.5M+48.5%
Economics827$4.2M+2.4%
Finance1,390$4.4M-13.4%
Tech634$5.4M-31.9%
Culture954$6.3M+11.2%
Weather1,564$5.1M-30.3%
Misc8,837$14.1M-84.2%
Mentions24$29.6K-73.4%
K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics24,874$26.5M+79.7%
Sports610,675$1.3B+15.8%
Crypto11,798$191.5M+43%
Economics2,508$13.9M+54.9%
Finance1,253$3.0M+156.2%
Tech387$593.6K-18.5%
Culture6,239$2.9M-56.6%
Weather3,608$6.8M+13.7%
Misc7,355$2.7M-10.1%
World48,498$10.7M+129.4%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics4,922$370.0M-15.6%
Sports24,292$1.3B+46.6%
Crypto6,385$387.1M+7.3%
Economics855$162.5M-1.3%
Finance1,754$47.2M-25.6%
Tech862$84.9M+9%
Culture1,168$35.9M-26.2%
Weather3,326$45.6M+31.6%
Misc27,018$647.3M+1.3%
Mentions48$1.6M+243.6%
K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics57,997$147.6M-6.4%
Sports2,416,258$5.5B-2.6%
Crypto54,778$742.9M+47.4%
Economics5,245$39.0M-14%
Finance4,582$8.3M-22.9%
Tech4,313$4.2M-47.2%
Culture44,603$24.9M-54.1%
Weather14,069$32.2M-1.4%
Misc22,778$14.6M+52.8%
World154,875$36.0M+90.7%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics7,582$1.9B+19.2%
Sports67,812$4.3B+51.5%
Crypto14,709$1.4B+33.5%
Economics1,402$510.0M+2.2%
Finance4,028$205.6M+40.7%
Tech1,544$348.7M+14.3%
Culture2,409$138.9M+18.7%
Weather6,466$123.0M+128.4%
Misc71,384$2.0B+100.6%
Mentions152$3.4M-5.7%
Last updated: March 22, 2026 at 11:37 AM PDT

Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US APIs

Latest news making headlines

  • March 16: Kalshi launched the billion dollar perfect bracket contest, giving away $1 billion for a perfect bracket or $1 milllion + $1 million for charity to the highest scoring bracket. This trumps all other contests in the space and pushed Kalshi to the top of the list of best bracket contests.
  • March 13: A $50M USDT swap executed through the Aave interface returned only 324 AAVE after a 99% price impact, highlighting how even properly functioning DeFi systems can still expose users to catastrophic outcomes when liquidity and UX guardrails fall short.
  • March 12: The CFTC launched its first formal prediction-market rulemaking process and issued new guidance on manipulation and sports event contracts, opening a 45-day comment period that could shape the first comprehensive federal framework for event-based trading.
  • March 12: Congress introduced a wave of five bills targeting prediction markets, addressing issues ranging from insider trading risks to sports event contracts and controversial “death markets,” signaling growing political scrutiny of the sector.
  • March 11: Mastercard signed more than 85 crypto companies to its payments network, highlighting how crypto rewards programs already running on traditional payment rails complicate banks’ push to ban stablecoin yield and activity-based rewards in the CLARITY Act.
  • March 10: A new industry report projects prediction markets could surpass $1 trillion in annual trading, citing rapid growth from $63.5B in global volume in 2025 and expectations of weekly trading eventually reaching $25B.
  • March 10: Polymarket US partnered with Palantir and TWG AI to monitor sports prediction markets, deploying AI-driven surveillance tools designed to detect suspicious trading activity and potential insider information.
  • March 9: Cboe unveiled a new “payout zone” framework for prediction markets, adding a third outcome that allows partial payouts alongside the traditional yes-or-no contract structure.
  • March 9: Underdog acquired Aristotle Exchange’s CFTC-approved trading and clearing entities, giving the fantasy sports operator the regulatory infrastructure to list and clear its own U.S. prediction markets rather than relying on partner exchanges.
  • March 6: Smarkets moves toward launching a U.S. prediction market exchange after filing with the CFTC for Designated Contract Mar ket status, a step that would allow the U.K. betting exchange to list federally regulated event contracts nationwide.
  • March 5: New U.S. guidance on tokenized securities could reshape prediction market infrastructure, potentially enabling blockchain-based collateral, margin trading, and deeper integration with traditional financial markets.
  • March 4: Kevin Warsh’s official nomination as Federal Reserve chair resolves one of the largest political prediction markets to date, with roughly $807 million traded across Kalshi and Polymarket before the confirmation filing reached the Senate.
  • March 4: Trump accuses major banks of blocking the CLARITY Act, arguing financial institutions are resisting stablecoin yield provisions that could compete with traditional savings products.
  • March 3: CFTC Chair Michael Selig signaled a major regulatory push for prediction markets, announcing plans for formal rulemaking and clearer self-certification standards for event contracts.
  • March 3: Kalshi inked a deal with the AP that will allow the exchange to use official AP election data in its markets. Negative public reactions reflect the industry’s current public trust issues.

What are prediction markets? 

Prediction markets are a venue for trading contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow participants to buy and sell shares in contracts tied to various markets, including politics, economics, pop culture events, and weather forecasts. 

Contracts are the financial instruments used to facilitate trade in prediction markets. At most sites, traders can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on the outcome, with prices ranging from 1 cent to $1. The price serves as an indicator of the perceived likelihood of an event happening. As an example, consider the following market for an economic indicator: 

Example of how a prediction market works

Using the contracts’ pricing as a guide, traders view it as less likely that the funds rate will not decrease when this contract closes. If their speculation proves to be correct, they would earn $1 per contract. Meanwhile, those who hold “Yes” shares would see the value of their holdings go to zero. 

As prediction markets remain open, the price of contracts will fluctuate as traders buy and sell shares in response to new developments. Naturally, there are no guarantees that the market pricing will translate into exactly what will happen.

However, it is a “wisdom of the crowds” indicator that points to an outcome’s overall probability and likelihood.         

How prediction markets work

Prediction market apps function similarly to other financial markets. Traders buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event. For comparison, stock market traders buy and sell shares of companies, while popular markets on a commodities exchange include the price of oil or gold. 

In all of the above, traders are speculating on a result in hopes of being correct and ultimately earning a profit. For prediction markets, there are three main components to know:

  • Contracts: These are the financial instruments that are traded and tied to the outcome of future events.  
  • Participants: Those who are trading in the markets and providing liquidity as they buy and sell based on their predictions. 
  • Mechanisms: The platforms that make the markets available, calculate prices, and facilitate transactions. 

Most prediction platforms feature binary options markets, which translates into participants choosing “Yes” or “No” on the available contracts that they are interested in speculating on. The apps make money by charging a fee that varies based on the price of the market. Using the Crypto.com app and a $100 trade as an example, the fee is capped at a maximum of $1.74.       

As you view the available contracts on prediction market platforms, you’ll notice that the total value of “Yes” and “No” options does not equal exactly $1. For example: 

  • Winner of the March Madness tournament semifinal
  • Duke: $0.72
  • Houston: $0.29

The total of the two prices works out to $1.01. This is due to the spread, which is the difference in demand. There is high demand for a market such as this one with a tight spread. If the spread is more prominent, such as $0.05, there’s lower demand and likely less volume and liquidity in the market for that contract. 

Kalshi and Polymarket provide diverse market options for traders to choose from, such as: 

The pricing of contracts can be viewed as the market’s collective “best guess” on the likelihood of an event outcome.

Most popular markets

You can trade on a wide range of real-world events on prediction market platforms. Contracts are available on outcomes in a variety of markets, including: 

  • Sports: Game results, championships, build combo trades
  • Politics: Elections, candidate nominations, legislative outcomes
  • Economics: Central bank rates, inflation, indicators
  • Crypto: Cryptocurrency prices, market events
  • Culture: Award shows, celebrity news, viral trends
  • Climate: Temperature records, storm predictions
  • Companies & Financials: Corporate achievements, stock market trends, index prices
  • Tech & Science: Tech adoption milestones, scientific breakthroughs
  • Health & World: Health and wellness issues, global news, and developments  
  • Mentions: Predictions on words and phrases used by public figures

In terms of overall coverage, Kalshi and Polymarket provide the broadest range of options. Crypto.com is currently limited to sports, PredictIt focuses on politics, while other niche platforms have yet to capture a good deal of mainstream attention. Some platforms allow users to propose new markets, while others curate their offerings centrally. 

In terms of overall usage, Polymarket leads in global web traffic, while Kalshi is tops among US-regulated options. Beyond the trading aspect, prediction markets are often cited for their forecast accuracy. The platforms essentially aggregate the opinions of traders, offering a “wisdom of the crowds’ look at the probability of an event or outcome happening. 

How does pricing work on contracts?

Prediction market contracts are binary options that pay out a fixed amount. It’s typically set at $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it does not. Before the contract settles, prices will fluctuate between those ranges as traders enter and exit positions. 

When viewing a contract offering on a prediction market platform, the pricing reflects the market’s collective estimate of the probability that the event will happen. Consider the following example:

  • Contract: “Will the Fed raise interest rates in May?” 
  • Pricing: $0.70 for “Yes” and $0.32 for “No.”
  • Implication: The market implies a 70% chance of a rate hike and a 32% chance it won’t happen.

As you’ll notice, the pricing doesn’t exactly equal $1, while the implied probability is greater than 100%. Small differences such as these are common and often reflect the spread between bid and ask pricing or trading fees. Markets with higher liquidity tend to have more stable prices and tighter spreads, while wider price swings can happen in less active contracts. 

While contracts remain open, prices will continue to move as traders react to new information and shifting sentiment, providing a real-time snapshot of the overall market sentiment. At settlement, the resolution for a correct contract call is $1, while the other side will drop to $0.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket fee comparison

The trading fees and costs on prediction markets can impact your overall returns. The table below has a breakdown of the main fees you’ll encounter on Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Fee TypeKalshiPolymarket
Trading Fee$0.07–$1.74 per 100 contracts (varies by contract price; see example)No trading fee
Profit/SettlementNoneNone
Deposit FeeACH free; Debit card 2%None (USDC only)
Withdrawal FeeACH free; Debit card $21.5% on USDC withdrawals

Kalshi’s trading fee is variable and depends on the contract price. For 100 contracts, it can be as low as $0.07 and up to $1.74. There are no settlement fees to worry about. Meanwhile, Polymarket does not charge any trading or settlement fees. 

To illustrate the difference, assume that you’re buying 100 contracts at $0.55 on either platform. At Kalshi, this price point triggers the maximum fee for 100 contracts of $1.74, while Polymarket charges $0. You’d be in for a total of $56.74 at the former, and $55 at the latter.  

If you make the right call, the contract settles at $1 in both spots. At Kalshi, you’ll get back $100, less your fee of $1.74, for a total of $98.26. Polymarket will return an even $100 since there are no fees attached. 

Beyond trading and settlement, be sure to consider the deposit and withdrawal fees that are outlined above. Traders should also be aware of potential “hidden costs” like bid-ask spreads, and the potential challenges of exiting positions in less liquid markets.

Profit potential for betting on predictions

Prediction markets offer opportunities for traders to profit by buying and selling contracts. In its simplest form, the goal is to make the correct calls so your contracts settle at full value. Traders can also aim to “buy low and sell high.”

Strategies for doing just that include looking for mispriced outcomes and acting before the rest of the market catches on. While the potential for returns is real, profits aren’t guaranteed. Market efficiency, liquidity, and timing all play a big role in shaping your results. 

How much can you make by buying a low-priced contract?

Buying low-priced contracts can be enticing due to the potential for big returns. Naturally, there’s plenty of risk here. The contract is priced low for a reason, namely that the chances of that outcome happening aren’t great. 

Let’s consider the following fictitious example for an NBA Playoff game in which there’s a clear favorite to win, at least as far as the market is concerned. 

  • Underdog contract price: $0.10 (10% chance)
  • Quantity: You buy 100 contracts for a total of $10. 
  • Kalshi trading fee: $0.63 (for 100 contracts at this price point)
  • Total upfront cost: $10 + $0.63 = $10.63
  • Outcome: Underdog wins; contracts settle at $1 each
  • Payout: 100 × $1 = $100
  • Net profit: $100 – $10.63 = $89.37

In this case, a small investment yields a large return if the prediction is correct. Seeking out low-priced contracts with realistic profit potential can be part of a well-rounded trading approach, but remember to account for the increased risks of trading less-likely outcomes.  

What happens if you sell your contract before the event?

Prediction markets aren’t just about holding contracts to settlement. You can also sell your position before the event concludes if the odds move in your favor. This is especially common in political markets, where news cycles and polling shifts can cause prices to swing rapidly.

Consider the following as an example: “Will Candidate X win the election?”

  • Polymarket contract price: $0.45 (45% chance)..
  • Quantity: You buy 50 contracts for a total of $22.50.
  • New developments and polling substantially boosts Candidate X’s chances. 
  • The contract price rises to $0.70.
  • You decide to sell all 50 contracts at $0.70 each for a total of $35
  • Polymarket trading fee: $0 (no trading fee; only a withdrawal fee applies if you cash out)
  • Net profit: $35 – $22.50 = $12.50
  • If you withdraw your USDC, a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies: $35 × 0.015 = $0.53

By selling before the event, you lock in your gains and avoid the uncertainty of the final outcome. This approach can be especially useful when you think the market has overreacted or you want to cash out and take your profit after a favorable news development. 

Can you profit by betting ‘No’ on an event?

Prediction markets also allow you to profit by betting against an outcome happening. This is where you would buy the “No” side of the equation when you anticipate that the contract will ultimately resolve to that end result. 

Consider the following example: “Will U.S. inflation exceed 4% this quarter?”

  • Kalshi “No” contract price: $0.60 (60% chance).
  • Quantity: You buy 75 contracts for a total of $45. 
  • Kalshi trading fee: $1.50 (at $0.02 per contract for this price point)
  • Total upfront cost: $45 + $1.50 = $46.50
  • If inflation comes in below 4%, each contract settles at $1
  • Payout: 75 × $1 = $75
  • Net profit: $75 – $46.50 = $28.50

Taking the “No” side can be a valuable strategy when you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of an event. Regardless of which outcome you choose, stick to your comfort level for both contract pricing and the total amount of your trades.   

Are prediction markets the same as gambling? 

Prediction markets are not, by definition, the same as gambling. The former is considered a tool for forecasting outcomes based on probabilities. Casino, sports, and lottery are generally viewed as games of chance. That said, there are similarities between the two, most notably that the goal is to turn a profit.   

From the perspective of a prediction platform, the contracts are on equal footing to a commodities exchange. Using the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an example, futures and options are traded on stock indexes, precious metals, energy commodities, and more. Traders take positions on the various instruments based on their expectations of what will happen.  

In a prediction market, traders are doing the same thing, albeit in a broader variety of options, such as political, cultural, and economic events. The gambling label has been attached to these platforms as they have risen in popularity, even more so since the introduction of contracts on various sporting events, such as the winner of March Madness or the next Super Bowl winner.  

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi, PredictIt, and ForecastEx are currently available across the US. However, questions on their overall legality continue to linger. A case between Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission remains unresolved. Kalshi won the latest round, but litigation is ongoing. 

The platform offered contracts for the 2024 US elections, and has since expanded into sports futures. Meanwhile, states like Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio have presented the company with cease-and-desist letters, essentially arguing that they’re offering unregulated sports betting.     

If interest in prediction markets is a guide, then the future looks incredibly bright. Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted extensive volume for tentpole events that it has offered contracts for, including the 2024 US elections, the Super Bowl, and March Madness.

Understanding the math of prediction market contracts

Prediction market contract pricing is generally straightforward. You can view an available market and quickly determine the implied probability of an event happening, at least as far as the overall market sentiment is concerned. 

That said, the actual trading of contracts takes a little more doing on the calculation front. You can use the below formulas and examples as a cheat sheet to help gain even more of a comfort level with prediction market trading. 

How to calculate the number of contracts you can buy

Formula: Number of Contracts = (Available Capital) ÷ (Contract Price + Fees)

Example:

  • You want to trade $50. 
  • Each contract you’re interested in costs $0.25.
  • Kalshi fee: $0.02 per contract at this price point.
  • Calculation: $50 ÷ ($0.25 + $0.02) ≈ 192 contracts

Estimating potential profit and loss

Formula: Profit = (Sell Price – Buy Price) × Number of Contracts – Fees

Example:

  • You buy 100 contracts at $0.30 and sell at $0.60.
  • Profit = ($0.60 – $0.30) × 100 = $30
  • Kalshi fee: $1.68 (for 100 contracts at $0.60)
  • Net profit = $30 – $1.68 = $28.32

Finding your break-even price

Formula: Break-even Price = (Buy Price + Total Fees) ÷ Number of Contracts

Example:

  • You buy 50 contracts at $0.40, for a total of $20. 
  • Total fees if you sold at the same price: $1 ($0.02 per contract). 
  • Break-even = ($20 + $1) ÷ 50 = $0.42 per contract
  • You need to sell above $0.42 to make a profit.

By taking the time to understand these quick calculations, you could spot appealing opportunities that much quicker. As an added benefit, you’ll be better equipped to manage risk and make more informed trades. 

Risks to consider when trading in prediction markets

Trading in prediction markets can be entertaining and potentially profitable, but it’s not devoid of risk. Understanding the potential pitfalls can help you mitigate unnecessary mistakes and ultimately make more informed decisions. Key risks to consider include: 

  • Unexpected outcomes: There’s always the potential for a complete loss of your stake, even when the odds seem overwhelmingly in your favor.
  • Low liquidity: Certain markets attract a limited amount of volume, which can make it difficult to buy or sell contracts at fair prices.
  • Platform issues: While top platforms tend to operate without lengthy interruptions, there are simply no guarantees when it comes to security or technical glitches. 
  • Regulatory environment: Prediction markets are soaring in popularity and readily accessible, but are also subject to developments from ongoing legal challenges. 
  • Distorted prices: Biases, groupthink, manipulation, and misinformation could all impact contract pricing in both high- and low-volume markets.   

If you trade in prediction markets, there is risk. However, you can take steps to help manage it better. At the top of the list, you should only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed with trading, no matter what the odds may suggest. 

Next, stay informed about what’s happening. Knowing what’s going on with the regulatory front can help you make better decisions on where to park your funds. Lastly, stick to what you know and don’t blindly chase volume. After all, the herd isn’t always correct.