The 2026 World Cup will begin when Mexico and South Africa clash in front of 83,000 fans in Mexico City later today. Shakira and Burna Boy will get the party started when they perform the official tournament song during the opening ceremony.
We can then look forward to an intriguing clash between two well-drilled teams, but Mexico is the clear favorite to win. The action then shifts to Guadalajara this evening, where South Korea will take on Czechia.
Canada will host a separate opening ceremony tomorrow in Toronto before its game against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Performers include Alanis Morissette and Michael Bublé. The final opening ceremony takes place in Los Angeles on Saturday, featuring superstars like Katy Perry.
It promises to be a spectacular celebration, and soccer fans can enjoy 12 high-profile games over the next three days. Trading sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are offering a wide range of markets, so we’ve rounded up everything you can trade.
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World Cup Game Markets
You’ll find a few core markets on each World Cup game on prediction markets:
- Moneyline: Simply predict the result of each game. There are three options. For example, Kalshi has 70% on Mexico to beat South Africa, 21% on a tie (draw), and 11% on South Africa to win.
- Spread: The stronger team is given a handicap, and you can predict who will cover the resulting spread. For example, Polymarket gives Switzerland a 58% chance of covering a -1.5 spread against Qatar on Friday. If you think the Swiss will win by at least 2 goals, buy “Yes” contracts on Switzerland -1.5. Alternatively, if you expect Qatar to win, draw, or lose by just a single goal, buy “Yes” contracts on Qatar +1.5.
- Totals: A simple over/under prediction on the number of goals scored in a game. For example, you’ll find this market at Kalshi on the game between South Korea and Czechia: “Over 2.5 goals scored – yes 43¢, no 58¢.” If you expect to see at least 3 goals in the game, buy “Yes” contracts. Alternatively, buy “No” contracts if you think there will be no more than two goals.
- Both teams to score: A yes/no prediction on whether both teams will find the back of the net. Here’s how Kalshi displays this market for the Mexico vs. South Africa game: “Both teams to score – yes 38¢, no 63¢.”
- Half markets: You can also make trades on each half of a game. For example, you’ll find a moneyline, spreads, totals, and team totals on the first half of the Mexico vs. South Africa game, plus a market on whether both teams will score in the first half.
- Alternative lines: You can move the spreads and totals in either direction to change the odds. For instance, you can buy contracts on over/under 0.5 goals, 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals, 3.5 goals, 4.5 goals, or 5.5 goals.
- Exact score: Predict the exact final score. For example, Polymarket is offering these odds on Mexico 1-0 South Africa: “yes 19¢, no 82¢.” You’ll also find contracts on 0-0, 2-0 to Mexico, 2-1 to Mexico, 1-1, 2-2, 1-0 to South Africa, and so on.
Contracts settle at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t. For example, let’s say you think both teams will score in the Mexico vs. South Africa game, and you want to trade $100. Here’s how that trade would work:
- Hit the “Yes 38¢” button and enter $100 as your trade amount.
- The site will tell you that you’re buying 263 “Yes” contracts for 38¢ each. Confirm the trade.
- If both teams score, each contract will settle at $1, so you’ll be paid $263. If not, each contract will settle at $0, so you’ll lose your $100 investment.
You can also sell your contracts before the market settles. For example, let’s say South Africa scores in the opening 15 minutes. At that point, your contracts might be worth 65¢, as traders are pricing in that South Africa goal. You could then sell each contract for a 27¢ profit, without waiting to see if Mexico finds the back of the net. Another option is to sell some contracts and leave the rest riding on the result.
World Cup Player Props and Game Props
The best prediction market sites are offering a long list of props on each game. Here are the top markets to consider:
- Goalscorer: A yes/no prediction on whether a player will score during the game. For example: “Raúl Jiménez to score against South Africa – yes 40¢, no 40¢.”
- Multiple goals: You can also predict whether a player will score at least 2 goals in a game.
- Score or assist: Predict whether a player will either score or provide an assist. For example, you could opt for Roberto Alvarado to score or assist for Mexico.
- Assist: Buy yes/no contracts on whether a specific player will provide 1+ assists or 2+ assists during the game.
- Shots: Predict how many shots a certain player will make during the match.
- Total corners: An over/under prediction on the number of corners in the game. For example, Kalshi is offering this market on 9+ corners in the Mexico vs. South Africa match: “yes 54¢, no 48¢.”
- Team corners: You can also predict how many corners a specific team will be awarded during the game. For instance, “South Africa 4+ corners – yes 44¢, no 60¢.”
- Other corner markets: Polymarket also offers markets on the number of corners in each half, plus an odd/even corners market. There’s a contract on which team will win the first corner too.
- First team to score: A simple prediction on which team will find the back of the net first.
World Cup Mention Markets
These markets are available on Kalshi. You can predict which words or phrases the announcers will say during the broadcast. Here are some examples from the Mexico vs. South Africa game:
- Qatar – yes 83¢, no 24¢
- Header – yes 93¢, no 16¢
- Captain – yes 82¢, no 20¢
- Assist – yes 81¢, no 26¢
- History – yes 80¢, no 21¢
- Crossbar – yes 53¢, no 57¢
- What a save – yes 28¢, no 80¢
- Ronaldo – yes 25¢, no 80¢
- Trump – yes 12¢, no 92¢
World Cup Group Stage Futures
The 48 World Cup contenders have been divided into 12 groups. The top two teams in each group will advance to the Round of 32, along with the eight best third-place teams. Prediction sites are offering a wide range of markets for each of the World Cup groups. Here are your main options:
- Group winner: A yes/no prediction on whether a team will finish first in their group. Sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are offering contracts on every team, covering all 12 groups.
- Group qualifier: Predict whether a team will reach the Round of 32.
- Finish bottom: Guess who will finish bottom of each group. You can also predict the exact finishing order of all four teams in a group.
- Group stage props: Make over/under predictions on the total goals scored in each group, or the total goals a certain team will score during the group stage.
- Group stage specials: You can predict the lowest-scoring team in the group stage, the highest-scoring group, the lowest-scoring group, and much more. Kalshi also has a yes/no contract on whether each team will score at least one goal.
World Cup Futures
You can also predict the World Cup winner. France and Spain are the favorites, ahead of England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil.
Prediction sites are offering markets on whether a team will make the final, semifinals, quarterfinals, Round of 16, or Round of 32, too. You can also predict the specific stage of elimination for each team. There are markets on which continent will win the tournament, and on which team will advance the furthest from each region.
You’ll find markets on player awards too: Golden Boot, Golden Glove, Golden Ball, Silver Ball, and Bronze Ball. There’s even a market at Kalshi on the brand of cleats worn by the Golden Boot winner (top scorer at the tournament). Adidas is the narrow favorite ahead of Nike.
World Cup Tournament Specials and Props
Prediction sites, many of which have exclusive promos for the World Cup, are offering a long list of tournament specials and exotic props too. Here are some of my favorites:
- Total goals: An over/under prediction on how many goals will be scored during the 104 World Cup matches.
- Hat-tricks: Predict how many hat-tricks (a player scores 3+ goals in a game) there will be during the tournament.
- Goalie to score: Will a goalkeeper find the back of the net?
- Fastest goal scored in the World Cup: For example, in the 3rd minute or earlier.
- President Trump to attend the final: Polymarket gives him an 89% chance.
- Records: Polymarket is offering contracts on which World Cup records could be broken. They include most goals for a single player, most yellow cards for a single player, the largest winning margin, the fastest goal in a game, and more.
- Halftime show: Predict who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show. Key contenders include Shakira and Beyoncé.
