Mexico, Norway, and France became the latest teams to qualify for the World Cup Round of 16 yesterday.
They will join Canada, Brazil, Paraguay, and Morocco. Several elite teams will bid to join them in the next round by winning their games today.
Prediction markets give the USA a 71% chance of beating Bosnia and Herzegovina in regulation time today. Team USA is trading at 83% to advance to the Round of 16 at Bosnia and Herzegovina’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Before that game gets underway, there are two big matchups on the slate: England vs. DR Congo in Atlanta, followed by Belgium vs. Senegal in Seattle.
Here’s how markets are pricing the USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET on FOX from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina, 8 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (*trading available in 49 states)
Prediction markets expect the USA to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina in regulation time when the teams clash in the Bay Area tonight. Captain Christian Pulisic is expected to return to the starting lineup, which should give the team a major boost.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (USA) | 83% | 83% |
| To Advance (Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 18% | 17% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (USA) | 71% | 72% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 20% | 19% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 11% | 11% |
| Regulation Time Spread (USA -1.5) | 45% | 47% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Bosnia and Herzegovina +1.5) | 56% | 54% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 56% | 57% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 45% | 44% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 48% | 49% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 53% | 52% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (USA) | 73% | 74% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 6% | 5% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 23% | 23% |
How USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina breaks down
The USMNT won its World Cup group after beating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0 in its first two games. Manager Mauricio Pochettino then rested most of his key players for a narrow defeat to Türkiye on Matchday 3. They should now be fresh for this high-profile Round of 32 showdown with Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Pulisic is expected to start for the first time since that 4-1 win against Paraguay after shaking off a calf injury. He is Team USA’s star player, with 33 goals and 20 assists in 86 games for his country, so he could light up this match. Pulisic is priced at 57% with Kalshi to either score or assist this evening.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is a tough nut to crack: it beat Wales and Italy to qualify for this tournament, before drawing 1-1 with Canada on Matchday 1. The Bosnians lost 4-1 to Switzerland in their second game, but only after a player was sent off, and they then beat Qatar 3-1 to qualify for the Round of 32.
Both teams to score has paid off in each of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s last 10 competitive games. That could be a popular market today, priced at 48% on Polymarket. However, traders expect the USA to outscore its opponent, and it’s priced at 45% to cover a 1.5-goal spread.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There are two more World Cup matchups taking place today. The action begins with England vs. DR Congo, and we can then look forward to an intriguing game between Belgium and Senegal.
England vs. DR Congo, 12 p.m. ET
Polymarket traders give England an 89% chance of eliminating DR Congo. Kalshi traders aren’t quite as bullish on the Three Lions, but they still anticipate a heavy England win.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on England vs. DR Congo (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (England) | 89% | 87% |
| To Advance (DR Congo) | 12% | 13% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (England) | 77% | 77% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 19% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (DR Congo) | 6% | 7% |
| Regulation Time Spread (England -1.5) | 50% | 51% |
| Regulation Time Spread (DR Congo +1.5) | 51% | 50% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 48% | 48% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 53% | 53% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 36% | 37% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 65% | 64% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (England) | 78% | 80% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 8% | 6% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (DR Congo) | 17% | 18% |
England won its World Cup group after beating Croatia 4-2, drawing 0-0 with Ghana, and beating Panama 2-0. Key players like Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka have recovered from injuries, so the Three Lions should be close to full strength, despite issues at right-back.
They could have too much firepower for DR Congo to contain. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham were in fine form during the group stage, while England’s bench is full of dangerous forwards. The Three Lions are trading at 50% with Polymarket to cover a 1.5-goal spread, which highlights the gulf in quality between these teams.
DR Congo exceeded expectations in the group stage, drawing with Portugal, losing narrowly to Colombia, and then beating Uzbekistan 3-1. However, traders expect this to be the end of the road for the Leopards, who have a 6% chance of reaching the next round.
Belgium vs. Senegal, 5 p.m. ET
Belgium is the narrow favorite to advance to the Round of 16 at Senegal’s expense, but traders anticipate a tight game. A draw in regulation time is priced at 30%, which highlights just how evenly matched these teams are.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Belgium vs. Senegal (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Belgium) | 60% | 59% |
| To Advance (Senegal) | 41% | 41% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Belgium) | 46% | 45% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 30% | 30% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Senegal) | 26% | 26% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Belgium -1.5) | 23% | 23% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Senegal +1.5) | 78% | 78% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 49% | 49% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 52% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 56% | 57% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 45% | 44% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Belgium) | 55% | 56% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 9% | 8% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Senegal) | 38% | 39% |
This game could offer a fascinating clash of styles. Belgium has technically gifted players like Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Youri Tielemans in its ranks. The Belgians are patient in building up their attacks, and they often play attractive soccer, but they’re a little lightweight in defense.
By contrast, the Senegalese players are quick, strong, and direct. They should win the physical battle in this game, but they could struggle to keep the likes of De Bruyne at bay. Markets price Over 2.5 goals at 49%, which looks interesting. It landed in all three of Senegal’s group stage games – a 3-1 defeat to France, a 3-2 loss to Norway, and a 5-0 win against Iraq – while Belgium is coming off a 5-1 victory over New Zealand.
Knockout stage continues tomorrow
Three teams will book their places in the World Cup Round of 16 today. The knockout stage continues with three more games tomorrow:
- Spain vs. Austria
- Portugal vs. Croatia
- Switzerland vs. Algeria
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
