World Cup Golden Boot Odds and Favorites: Messi leads over Mbappe
Lionel Messi is the favorite to win the World Cup Golden Boot, with prediction markets giving him a 57.5% implied chance of taking the award, ahead of Kylian Mbappe at 40.5%. Mbappe has scored eight goals through seven games. France fell in the semifinals 2-0 to Spain and will next be in action for the third-place game against England on Saturday (5 p.m. ET on FOX). Messi is tied for the lead with eight goals across seven matches. He'll next take the pitch on Sunday when Argentina faces Spain in the World Cup finals. The game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on FOX from MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Our odds tracker below is capturing data every 30 minutes from Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds on Who Will Score the Most Goals?
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
LMLionel Messi
Vol $43.3K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
57.5%↑ +52.5%
O
58.0%
K
57.5%
KMKylian Mbappe
Vol $31.3K
Spread 6.5%
Agg
40.5%↑ +24.5%
O
47.0%
K
40.5%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 39
Vol $236
Spread —
Agg
1.8%↓ -3.2%
U
1.8%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 11
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%— +0.0%
U
1.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 37
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%↓ -1.0%
U
1.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 48
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.8%↓ -1.0%
U
0.8%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 2
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.7%↓ -1.3%
U
0.7%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 44
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.7%↓ -10.7%
U
0.7%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.6%↓ -0.8%
U
0.6%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 26
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.6%↓ -7.9%
U
0.6%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 8
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.6%↓ -7.3%
U
0.6%
BSBukayo Saka
Vol $6
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -2.5%
O
1.0%
K
0.5%
FTFerran Torres
Vol $0
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.5%
O
1.0%
K
0.5%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 16
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -2.0%
U
0.5%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 6
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -0.5%
U
0.5%
HKHarry Kane
Vol $400
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -10.5%
O
1.0%
K
0.5%
JAJulian Alvarez
Vol $8
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -2.5%
O
1.0%
K
0.5%
LYLamine Yamal
Vol $159
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -8.0%
O
1.0%
K
0.5%
LMLautaro Martinez
Vol $11
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -2.5%
O
1.0%
K
0.5%
MOMikel Oyarzabal
Vol $117
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.0%
O
1.0%
K
0.5%
ODOusmane Dembele
Vol $5
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -3.0%
K
0.5%
RKMRandal Kolo Muani
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -0.5%
K
0.5%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 35
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↓ -7.6%
U
0.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 38
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↓ -5.9%
U
0.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 4
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.6%
U
0.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 50
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↓ -1.3%
U
0.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 34
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.3%↓ -0.3%
U
0.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 17
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -1.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 24
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -1.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 25
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -1.6%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 7
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -1.8%
U
0.2%
ARAlbert Rusnák
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
AMAlonso Martínez
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
ADAnders Dreyer
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
BWBrian White
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
CSCheikh Sabaly
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DMDanny Musovski
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DJDejan Joveljić
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DBDenis Bouanga
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DRDiego Rossi
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DMDjordje Mihailovic
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
EMCEric Maxim Choupo-Moting
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
EVEvander
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 10
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -1.0%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 12
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.0%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 13
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.0%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 14
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.9%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 15
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -1.6%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 18
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -1.9%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 19
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -1.2%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 20
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.5%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 21
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -7.5%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 22
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.5%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 23
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.5%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 27
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -1.5%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 28
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.0%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 29
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.9%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 3
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.0%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 30
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.2%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 31
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.0%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 32
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -8.4%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 33
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.7%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 36
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.3%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 40
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.6%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 42
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.2%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 43
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -10.3%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 45
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.1%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 46
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.1%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 47
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -1.9%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 49
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -1.6%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 5
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -8.0%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 53
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.9%
U
0.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 9
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.0%
U
0.0%
GBGermán Berterame
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
HMHany Mukhtar
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
HCHugo Cuypers
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
ITIdan Toklomati
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
KDKévin Denkey
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
LMLouis Munteanu
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
MPMarco Pašalić
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
MOMartín Ojeda
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
MIMilan Iloski
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
PMPetar Musa
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
PZPhilip Zinckernagel
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
POOPrince-Osei Owusu
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SSSam Surridge
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
TATadeo Allende
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
TBTai Baribo
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
AMAlvaro Morata
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
BFBruno Fernandes
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
CPChristian Pulisic
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
CGCody Gakpo
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
CRCristiano Ronaldo
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
DNDarwin Nunez
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
EHErling Haaland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
JDJonathan David
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
LDLuis Diaz
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
MCMatheus Cunha
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
MDMemphis Depay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
MSMohamed Salah
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
NWNick Woltemade
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
PFPhil Foden
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
RARaphinha
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
RIRicharlison
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
RORodrygo
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
RLRomelu Lukaku
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
SMScott McTominay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
SHMSon Heung-min
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
VJVinicius Junior
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LM Lionel Messi | 57.5% ↑ +52.5% | 0.5% | $43.3K |
Kalshi
57.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
58.0%
|
KM Kylian Mbappe | 40.5% ↑ +24.5% | 6.5% | $31.3K |
Kalshi
40.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
47.0%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 39 | 1.8% ↓ -3.2% | — | $236 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
1.8%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 11 | 1.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
1.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 37 | 1.0% ↓ -1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
1.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 48 | 0.8% ↓ -1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.8%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 2 | 0.7% ↓ -1.3% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.7%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 44 | 0.7% ↓ -10.7% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.7%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner | 0.6% ↓ -0.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.6%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 26 | 0.6% ↓ -7.9% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.6%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 8 | 0.6% ↓ -7.3% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.6%
|
OG
—
|
BS Bukayo Saka | 0.5% ↓ -2.5% | 0.5% | $6 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
FT Ferran Torres | 0.5% ↓ -1.5% | 0.5% | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 16 | 0.5% ↓ -2.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.5%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 6 | 0.5% ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.5%
|
OG
—
|
HK Harry Kane | 0.5% ↓ -10.5% | 0.5% | $400 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
JA Julian Alvarez | 0.5% ↓ -2.5% | 0.5% | $8 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
LY Lamine Yamal | 0.5% ↓ -8.0% | 0.5% | $159 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
LM Lautaro Martinez | 0.5% ↓ -2.5% | 0.5% | $11 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
MO Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.5% ↓ -1.0% | 0.5% | $117 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
OD Ousmane Dembele | 0.5% ↓ -3.0% | — | $5 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
RKM Randal Kolo Muani | 0.5% ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 35 | 0.4% ↓ -7.6% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.4%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 38 | 0.4% ↓ -5.9% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.4%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 4 | 0.4% ↓ -0.6% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.4%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 50 | 0.4% ↓ -1.3% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.4%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 34 | 0.3% ↓ -0.3% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.3%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 17 | 0.2% ↓ -1.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 24 | 0.2% ↓ -1.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 25 | 0.2% ↓ -1.6% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 7 | 0.2% ↓ -1.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
OG
—
|
AR Albert Rusnák | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
AM Alonso Martínez | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
AD Anders Dreyer | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
BW Brian White | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
CS Cheikh Sabaly | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
DM Danny Musovski | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
DJ Dejan Joveljić | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
DB Denis Bouanga | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
DR Diego Rossi | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
DM Djordje Mihailovic | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
EMC Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
EV Evander | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 10 | 0.0% ↓ -1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 12 | 0.0% ↓ -2.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 13 | 0.0% ↓ -3.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 14 | 0.0% ↓ -2.9% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 15 | 0.0% ↓ -1.6% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 18 | 0.0% ↓ -1.9% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 19 | 0.0% ↓ -1.2% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 20 | 0.0% ↓ -2.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 21 | 0.0% ↓ -7.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 22 | 0.0% ↓ -2.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 23 | 0.0% ↓ -2.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner - 27 | 0.0% ↓ -1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
OG
—
|
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Martin Green
Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin…
Christopher Feery
Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten…
Latest FIFA World Cup Golden Boot predictions update
Some of the world’s best strikers are in fine form as they gear up for the tournament. These are the latest developments impacting the World Cup Golden Boot predictions market this week:
- Messi edges ahead of Mbappé. Lionel Messi provided two assists in Argentina’s 2-1 win against England on Wednesday. He’s still level with Kylian Mbappé on eight goals apiece, but FIFA will use assists as a tiebreaker for the Golden Boot. Messi now has four assists at this tournament, compared to three for Mbappé, giving him the slenderest of leads as we approach the final fixtures. Messi will play against Spain in the final, while Mbappé could still add to his tally when France takes on England in the third-place playoff game on Saturday. Kashi now makes Messi the 61.5% favorite, while Mbappé is trading at 37.5%.
- No goals for Kane and Bellingham. England captain Harry Kane and midfielder Jude Bellingham are still both on six goals apiece at this tournament after failing to score in that defeat to Argentina. They’re both still in contention for the Golden Boot, but they’d need to score at least three goals against France in the third-place playoff.
- Mbappé blunted. Kylian Mbappé was powerless to stop France from losing 2-0 to Spain in the World Cup semifinals on Tuesday. He still has eight goals in seven games, leaving him level with Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race. However, Messi has played fewer games, and he’s looking forward to playing for Argentina against England today. Traders responded by making Messi the 48.5% favorite to win the Golden Boot. However, Mbappé could still play in the third place playoff, giving him a chance to add to his tally.
- Oyarzabal still in contention. Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal scored from the penalty spot in that 2-0 win against France. That was his fifth goal of the tournament, leaving him three behind Messi and Mbappé. He can still win the Golden Boot, but only if he puts in a performance for the ages in the final.
Last updated: July 16, 2026
2026 World Cup Golden Boot pre-tournament odds
| Rank | Player, Team | Kalshi Odds | Team Odds to Win | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kylian Mbappé, France | 27% | 16.8% | Group I |
| 2 | Harry Kane, England | 13% | 11.2% | Group L |
| 3 | Lamine Yamal, Spain | 9% | 17.2% | Group H |
| 4 | Erling Haaland, Norway | 9% | 2.2% | Group I |
| 5 | Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain | 8% | 17.2% | Group H |
| 6 | Julián Alvarez, Argentina | 6% | 9.4% | Group J |
| 7 | Vinícius Júnior, Brazil | 6% | 9.6% | Group C |
| 8 | Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal | 4% | 7.7% | Group K |
| 9 | Lionel Messi, Argentina | 4% | 9.4% | Group J |
| 10 | Luis Díaz, Colombia | 3% | 2% | Group K |
Favorites to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot
Kalshi is offering contracts on 32 players to win the Golden Boot. The list includes long shots like Scotland’s Scott McTominay and Canada’s Jonathan David, but most of the action will go on a few high-profile strikers. These are the key contenders to become the top scorer at the World Cup:
Lionel Messi Golden Boot Odds
Messi is currently the top scorer at the 2026 World Cup. He scored a hat-trick in Argentina’s 3-1 win against Algeria on Matchday 1. That left him level with Miroslav Klose as the joint-top scorer in the tournament’s history. Messi then scored two more goals in a 2-0 victory over Algeria on Matchday 2. He only played for 30 minutes against Jordan on Matchday 3, but he fired in a free-kick in that game. Messi then scored his seventh goal of the tournament against Cape Verde in the Round of 32, before scoring against in a 3-2 victory over Egypt in the Round of 16. He didn’t score against Switzerland in the quarterfinals or against England in the semifinals, but he provided a few assists, which has seen him edge ahead of Kylian Mbappé in the Golden Boot race.
The Argentina captain fired in seven goals to lead his team to glory at the 2022 World Cup, leaving him just one behind Mbappé in the Golden Boot race that year. He has already matched that tally in four games this summer. Messi is arguably the greatest player of all time, but he’s now past his physical peak. He has just turned 39, and it remains to be seen if he can find a way past Spain’s elite defense in the final.
Kylian Mbappé Golden Boot odds
Mbappé has scored eight goals in seven games at the 2026 World Cup. He’s currently level with Messi on eight goals apiece, but Messi has one extra assist.
The France captain began the tournament with two superb goals in a 3-1 win against Senegal, followed by two more goals in a 3-0 win against Iraq, but he couldn’t find the back of the net against Norway. Mbappé then scored twice against Sweden in the Round of 32, taking his tally to six goals for the tournament. He scored against Paraguay in the Round of 16 and Morocco in the quarterfinals, leaving him level with Messi in the Golden Boot race.
Mbappé can still add to his tally in the third place playoff. France will face the loser of the other semifinal – either England or Spain – in that game on Saturday. However, it remains to be seen if France manager Didier Deschamps will field his strongest team for that game.
Harry Kane Golden Boot odds
Kane made an excellent start to the 2026 World Cup by scoring twice in England’s 4-2 win against Croatia, but he drew a blank against Ghana on Matchday 2. He was on target in England’s 2-0 victory over Panama, before firing in two goals against DR Congo in the Round of 32 and grabbing another against Mexico, so he’s still a leading contender for the award.
It follows a superb club season for Kane, who won the European Golden Shoe after firing in 36 goals in 31 games for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. That left him well clear of Mbappé and Man City’s Erling Haaland in the race to be named Europe’s top striker for the 2025/26 campaign.
Kane also scored 14 goals in 13 Champions League games for Bayern, proving that he can thrive against the best defenses in the business. In all competitions, Kane has scored 66 goals in 56 matches this season – a rate of 1.18 per game. He will aim to replicate that form for England at the World Cup.
Kane is England’s record goalscorer, with 85 goals in 119 games, and he won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup. He takes England’s penalties, and he’s lethal in and around the box, but he needs at least a hat trick against France in the third place playoff to win the award this year.
Jude Bellingham Golden Boot odds
The England midfielder has emerged as a Golden Boot contender after scoring six goals in six games. He was on target against Croatia and Panama in the group stage, before scoring twice in a 3-2 victory over Mexico in the Round of 32. Bellingham then scored both of England’s goals in a 2-1 win against Norway in the quarterfinals, but he drew a blank against Argentina in the semifinals. His chances of winning the Golden Boot are now slim.
Mikel Oyarzabal Golden Boot odds
Oyarzabal is another outside contender for the World Cup Golden Boot. The Spain striker has scored five goals in seven games so far, leaving him three behind Messi and Mbappé. He’s still in Golden Boot contention, but he needs to go on an absolute tear in the final.
The 28-year-old striker couldn’t find a breakthrough as Spain drew 0-0 with Cape Verde on Matchday 1, but he then scored twice in Spain 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia. Oyarzabal didn’t add to his tally in a 1-0 victory over Uruguay, but he scored twice against Austria in the Round of 32, leaving him with four goals for the tournament. He failed to score in Spain’s knockout stage games against Portugal and Belgium, but he added a fifth goal from the penalty spot as La Roja beat Spain 2-0 in the semifinals.
How the 2026 World Cup format changed the Golden Boot race
The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to include 48 teams. In the past, the tournament only featured 32 teams, and they were divided into eight groups. The top two teams in each group would advance to the Round of 16, meaning each team could play a maximum of seven games. FIFA has now tweaked the format.
There are now 12 groups, and the expanded tournament features an extra round. The top two teams in each group will advance to the Round of 32, along with the eight best third-place teams. That means teams can play a maximum of eight games instead of seven. Here’s how the changes could impact the Golden Boot race:
- Weaker group stage opponents: Unheralded teams like Curaçao, Haiti, New Zealand, Cape Verde, Jordan, and Uzbekistan have qualified for this tournament. For some of them, it will be their first World Cup appearance. They could get crushed by elite opponents in the group stage. For example, Portugal will play DR Congo and Uzbekistan in Group K, which could give Cristiano Ronaldo a chance to rack up plenty of goals.
- Mismatches in the Round of 32: In the Round of 32, some group winners will face teams that only finished third in their groups. This could create some lopsided games, giving the top strikers more opportunities to boost their goal tallies. For example, if England wins its group, it will face the third-placed team from Group E, H, I, J, or K in the Round of 32. England would be a heavy favorite, potentially giving Harry Kane the chance to score multiple goals.
- Potential for an upset: Adding a Round of 32 means that a striker could win the Golden Boot even if his team doesn’t go too deep into the tournament. For example, a team could be eliminated in the Round of 16, but that still gives the striker five games to score plenty of goals. If he’s playing against weak opponents, he could score seven-plus goals in that timeframe.
- Extra games mean more chances of a player getting injured. It has been a long club season, and the world’s best forwards may be tired by the time they arrive at the World Cup. Managers may try to mitigate the risk of injury by rotating their players, so we could see the likes of Kylian Mbappé and Julián Alvarez getting a breather. That could be good news for players who are all but guaranteed to start in each game, like Erling Haaland and Cristiano Ronaldo.
How the Golden Boot prediction market works
Prediction markets let you buy yes/no contracts on whether a player will win the World Cup Golden Boot. They’re functionally similar to sportsbooks, as they give you the chance to earn a profit by making correct predictions. However, they have a completely different legal status.
Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are regulated at a federal level by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). They’re particularly popular in states that haven’t legalized online sports betting, like California and Texas. These prediction sites aren’t sportsbooks, so you can’t place wagers against the house.
Instead, you’re trading against fellow users, and the sites take a hosting fee. They allow you to buy and sell contracts on real-world events, from the World Cup Golden Boot to elections and inflation prints. You’ll see a “yes” price and a “no” price alongside each Golden Boot contender.
If you think he’ll win the Golden Boot, buy “yes” contracts. If not, buy “no” contracts. You can sell your contracts before the winner is decided if you like. At most sites, each contract settles at $1 if the player wins the Golden Boot and at $0 if he doesn’t. Here’s an example:
- You think Lamine Yamal will win the Golden Boot, and you want to put $20 on him.
- Kalshi offers this market: Lamine Yamal – yes 10¢, no 94¢.
- Click “Yes 10¢” and your selection will appear on the trading slip.
- Enter $20 in the “Amount” section. The site will explain that you’re buying 200 contracts at 10¢ each. Your payout if he wins the Golden Boot will be $200.
- Click to confirm the trade, and Kalshi will open the position for you.
You then have two options: wait to see if he wins the Golden Boot, or sell your contracts before the market resolves. For example, let’s say Yamal scores four times in the group stage. At that point, he might be trading at 20¢ to win the Golden Boot.
You could then sell your contracts for a 100% profit, without waiting to see how he performs in the knockout stage. Alternatively, you can sell some of your contracts and leave the rest riding on the outcome.
Golden Boot resolution criteria
This market resolves to “Yes” if your chosen player is the top scorer at the World Cup. Kalshi is using official FIFA data to verify the outcome. At Kalshi, if two or more players finish the tournament tied for most goals scored and no official tiebreaker is used to declare a single winner, all tied players will share the payout equally.
Each tied outcome will pay $1 divided by the number of tied players, rounded down to the nearest cent. For example, if Kane and Mbappé share the Golden Boot, contracts on each player will pay out at $0.50. If Kane, Mbappé, and Haaland share the award, contracts on each player will pay out at $0.33.
What history tells us about Golden Boot winners
These are the last 10 World Cup Golden Boot winners:
| Year | Player | Team | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Team | Goals |
| 2022 | Kylian Mbappé | France | 8 |
| 2018 | Harry Kane | England | 6 |
| 2014 | James Rodríguez | Colombia | 6 |
| 2010 | Thomas Müller | Germany | 5 |
| 2006 | Miroslav Klose | Germany | 5 |
| 2002 | Ronaldo | Brazil | 8 |
| 1998 | Davor Šuker | Croatia | 6 |
| 1994 | Oleg Salenko / Hristo Stoichkov | Russia / Bulgaria | 6 |
| 1990 | Salvatore Schillaci | Italy | 6 |
| 1986 | Gary Lineker | England | 6 |
As you can see, there were nine outright winners. The Golden Boot has only been shared once in the modern era, with Oleg Salenko and Hristo Stoichkov both scoring six times in 1994. Most Golden Boot winners played for teams that went deep into the tournament.
Ronaldo won the World Cup with Brazil in 2002, and Mbappé was a runner-up with France in 2022. Three Golden Boot winners played for teams that finished third: Schillaci in 1990, Šuker in 1998, and Müller in 2010.
Kane, Klose, and Stoichkov all played for teams that reached the semifinals. Lineker and Rodríguez both went to the quarterfinals. The only exception was Salenko, who scored six goals for Russia in 1994, but couldn’t stop them from being eliminated in the group stage.
The most common winning total has been six goals, but the expanded 48-team format in 2026 could push that number higher. Teams could previously only play a maximum of seven games, but that will rise to eight this summer. There will be the usual three group stage matches, plus up to five knockout rounds.
That extra game, combined with weaker group stage opponents, could potentially see the winning tally reach 10. The last player to score 10 goals at the World Cup was Gerd Müller in 1970. Just Fontaine of France holds the all-time single-tournament record with 13 goals at the 1958 World Cup in Sweden.
His record has stood for 68 years, but can someone break it this summer? Nobody has ever won the Golden Boot twice, but Mbappé and Kane both have a shot at doing so in 2026.
Where to trade or bet the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot
The leading prediction sites will offer World Cup Golden Boot markets this summer. These are the best sites to visit:
- Kalshi: Kalshi was the first site to publish a World Cup Golden Boot market. The market went live in December 2025, and it has already generated around $200,000 in volume. You’ll find contracts on 32 leading forwards at Kalshi, from Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane to Matheus Cunha and Memphis Depay. The site is available in all 50 states, but sports contracts aren’t available in certain states.
- Polymarket: Polymarket is a major rival to Kalshi. Both sites are CFTC-registered, and they offer a wide range of World Cup prediction markets. Polymarket hasn’t published a World Cup Golden Boot market yet, but we expect to see one soon. The site allows you to buy top scorer contracts in an extensive list of soccer leagues and cups.
- DraftKings Predictions app: DraftKings expanded into the fast-growing prediction markets industry in December 2025. The DraftKings Predictions app launched in 38 states, featuring sports trading in 17 of them, including California and Texas. You’ll find a World Cup winner market, and the Golden Boot should be added soon. DraftKings also offers a larger welcome bonus than most competitors.
- FanDuel Predicts: FanDuel also launched its own prediction market in December 2025. The site is available in all 50 states, but it only offers sports contracts in states where FanDuel Sportsbook doesn’t operate. FanDuel Predicts offers a $25 welcome bonus, fast payouts, and a smooth user interface.
- Underdog Predict: This is another CFTC-registered site that lets you trade sports event contracts. Underdog teamed up with Crypto.com to launch the site in September 2025. Liquidity is thin compared to Kalshi and Polymarket, but Underdog Predict should grow in popularity over the coming months.
Other World Cup prediction markets to watch
Leading sites like Kalshi and Polymarket have published a wide range of World Cup prediction markets. These are the most popular markets to keep an eye on:
- World Cup winner: You can buy simple yes/no contracts on whether each team will win the World Cup this summer. Spain is the favorite after winning Euro 2024, but La Roja faces competition from rivals like France, England, Argentina, and Brazil. The USMNT is an outsider, as all previous World Cup winners have come from either Europe or South America.
- Group winner: Prediction sites are offering markets on the winning team in each group. The 48 teams are divided into 12 groups, giving you lots of markets to explore. The current group favorites are Mexico, Switzerland, Brazil, the USA, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, France, Argentina, Portugal, and England.
- To qualify from each group: You can also predict whether a certain team will qualify for the knockout stage. A team needs to secure a top-two finish in its group, or it must be one of the eight best third-place teams, to advance to the Round of 32.
- To reach a certain round: Kalshi is offering contracts on whether each team will reach a certain stage of the tournament. You can back a team to qualify for the Round of 16, the quarterfinals, the semifinals, or the final.
- Markets on each game: Prediction markets are available on each game, too. Sites like Kalshi and DraftKings Predictions are already offering moneylines, spreads, and totals. We expect more markets to appear in the build-up to each game, including game props and player props.
New traders looking to get started can find a full breakdown of how fees work across all major platforms before placing their first trade. For readers in states without legal sports betting, such as California and Texas, prediction markets are fully available. If you’re deciding between platforms, our Kalshi vs. Polymarket comparison covers fees, market depth, and resolution differences in detail.