Major League Baseball is stepping into the prediction market space just days before Opening Day, striking a partnership with Polymarket while also signing a first-of-its-kind agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to coordinate on market oversight.
The Polymarket deal gives the exchange access to official league data and branding. MLB and the CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) establishing an information-sharing relationship, enabling closer coordination on how prediction markets tied to the sport are monitored and policed.
“The MOU is a collaborative step towards promoting the integrity and resilience of the prediction markets relating to professional baseball,” CFTC Chairman Mike Selig said in a statement. “Through this MOU, the CFTC is well-positioned to add additional tools to protect these markets and its participants from fraud, manipulation, and other abuses.”
MLB helps shape markets through Polymarket deal
The Polymarket agreement makes the platform MLB’s official prediction market partner, giving the platform access to league data and intellectual property, including logos and branding, according to The Wall Street Journal. The designation allows Polymarket to offer markets tied to MLB games with official backing, a step that moves prediction markets closer to the type of data-driven integration long seen in traditional sports betting.
As part of the deal, the Polymarket and MLB will also work together to shape which markets are available to users, with a particular focus on limiting contracts that could raise integrity concerns. That includes avoiding wagers tied to highly specific, individual actions, where outcomes could be more easily influenced, in favor of broader, game-level markets that are less susceptible to manipulation.
“Integrity was the foundation of the conversation, not something that was bolted on after we started discussions,” Ari Borod, Polymarket’s president of sports business development, told WSJ. “We will continue to engage in a constant conversation with them about what is the best thing to do for the game of baseball, for our consumers and for the prediction market category as a whole.”
The structure mirrors how leagues have approached sportsbook partnerships in recent years, where official data and branding are paired with oversight into how betting markets are constructed. But in this case, the collaboration extends beyond data licensing, with MLB taking a more active role in shaping the design of prediction markets themselves.
While most major U.S. sports leagues were initially hesitant to engage with prediction market platforms, that stance has begun to shift as the popularity of sports event contracts has grown. The National Hockey League last year became the first to sign prediction market deals, inking partnerships with both Polymarket and Kalshi. Keith Wachtel, president of NHL business, told ESPN that a key part of that deal was allowing the league to have some say in what types of markets are offered.
Polymarket also has partnerships with Major League Soccer and the UFC.
CFTC agreement creates new federal coordination model
While the Polymarket partnership expands MLB’s commercial presence in the space, the agreement with the CFTC may carry broader implications for how prediction markets tied to sports are structured and overseen. The MOU establishes a formal information-sharing relationship between the league and the federal regulator, creating an ongoing channel for communication around integrity risks, suspicious activity, and market design.
That type of coordination is new at the federal level. The agreement creates a direct line of communication between MLB and the CFTC, similar to how leagues coordinate with state gaming regulators.
“We need to understand and work together with the league to know what could potentially be easily manipulated on the field,” Selig said in comments to WSJ, highlighting the agency’s reliance on leagues for insight into market risks.
The agreement also aligns with a broader push from the CFTC to define how prediction markets tied to real-world events, including sports, should operate. In recent guidance and rulemaking discussions, the agency has emphasized the need for stronger integrity protections, credible data sources, and limits on contracts that could be susceptible to manipulation.
Could NBA, NFL be next to partner with prediction exchange?
While the MLB, NHL and MLS have come to embrace prediction markets, other major U.S. sports leagues have yet to formally enter the space. The NBA has emerged as one of the more engaged holdouts, with league executives acknowledging the growing visibility of prediction markets while stopping short of announcing partnerships. But that could change.
“We currently are looking at prediction markets essentially in the same way that we’re looking at sports betting markets or sports betting companies,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver told reporters in February during NBA All-Star Weekend.
The NFL has been cautious in its public comments on prediction markets, though recent remarks point to more openness. NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller told Front Office Sports the league sees the sector as “innovative” and “dynamic,” while noting it is continuing to track how regulation develops before determining how to engage.
Sports event contracts being contested by state regulators
Prediction markets tied to sports are now at the center of a growing legal fight between states and event contract exchanges. States like Nevada and Massachusetts have taken steps to block platforms from offering sports event contracts, while Arizona is pursuing criminal charges alleging Kalshi is operating an illegal gambling business and offering election wagering, both of which violate state law.
The CFTC has pushed back, arguing that event contracts fall under federal derivatives law and should be regulated at the national level. That position is now being tested in court, where rulings and ongoing cases will likely determine whether states can restrict markets or if federal oversight prevails. It’s widely believed that the ultimate resolution will come from the Supreme Court.
MLB’s decision to partner with a platform and formalize coordination with the CFTC adds legitimacy to prediction markets tied to sports at a time when their legal status is still being contested. By aligning with both an operator and the federal regulator overseeing the space, the league is reinforcing a framework that treats these markets as something distinct from traditional state-regulated gambling.
