Prediction Markets Oil Spot Price Predictions

Oil Price Predictions: How High Will It Get?

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Updated 51 minutes ago · 6:25 AM PDT

Prediction markets are pricing oil above $100 by year end as a near-certainty, and the spot price is doing a lot of the work for them. WTI crude has already breached $98 a barrel i March, putting the $100 threshold within striking distance and explaining why the higher price brackets have seen the most trading activity on Kalshi. One important caveat before reading too much into the cross-platform data: Kalshi's oil markets resolve against the end-of-year price, while Polymarket prices monthly contracts. They're not answering the same question, and the volume split heavily favors Kalshi's annual markets as a result. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for price of oil in 2026 is updated every 30 minutes with probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Largest Spread

82.00%

$110.01 or above

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$85.01 or above 0.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$677.1K

Momentum Leader

+26.0%

$114 or above 30D change

Probability Over Time

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Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

Cross-Venue Spread

Oil Price Predictions: Probability of Reaching $150/bbl

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

80O

$85.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

90O

$95.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

10O

$100.01 or above

Vol $28.6K Spread 37.0%

Agg 63.0%

↓ -26.3%

K 100.0%

P 63.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 99.8–99.9¢

Polymarket 63.0%

Vol $28.6K 62–64¢

90O

$90.01 or above

Vol $76 Spread 43.0%

Agg 57.0%

↓ -43.0%

K 100.0%

G 57.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Gemini 57.0%

Vol $76 26–88¢

10O

$135.01 or above

Vol $3.7K Spread —

Agg 54.5%

↑ +9.5%

K 54.5%

Kalshi 54.5%

Vol $3.7K 54–55¢

10O

$105.01 or above

Vol $24.1K Spread 66.5%

Agg 33.5%

↓ -44.5%

K 100.0%

G 39.5%

P 33.5%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 96.1–99.7¢

Gemini 39.5%

Vol $0 0–79¢

Polymarket 33.5%

Vol $24.1K 33–34¢

1OA

$114 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 30.0%

↑ +26.0%

G 30.0%

Gemini 30.0%

Vol $0 0–60¢

10O

$180.01 or above

Vol $396 Spread —

Agg 20.3%

↑ +1.8%

K 20.3%

Kalshi 20.3%

Vol $396 19.6–21¢

10O

$110.01 or above

Vol $27.7K Spread 82.0%

Agg 18.0%

↓ -54.6%

K 100.0%

P 18.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 96.2–99.8¢

Polymarket 18.0%

Vol $27.7K 17–19¢

1OA

$102 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 12.5%

↑ +0.5%

G 12.5%

Gemini 12.5%

Vol $0 0–25¢

10O

$115.01 or above

Vol $21.2K Spread 54.4%

Agg 11.8%

↓ -52.7%

K 64.1%

P 9.8%

Kalshi 64.1%

Vol $818 62.3–66¢

Polymarket 9.8%

Vol $20.4K 9.7–9.8¢

10O

$120.01 or above

Vol $143.0K Spread 52.9%

Agg 8.0%

↓ -55.0%

K 60.6%

G 21.5%

P 7.6%

Kalshi 60.6%

Vol $1.0K 60.5–60.6¢

Gemini 21.5%

Vol $0 0–43¢

Polymarket 7.6%

Vol $141.9K 7.6–7.7¢

1OA

$123 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.5%

↑ +3.0%

G 7.5%

Gemini 7.5%

Vol $0 0–15¢

9OA

$93 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -22.0%

G 6.5%

Gemini 6.5%

Vol $0 13–0¢

10O

$125.01 or above

Vol $32.6K Spread 53.6%

Agg 3.4%

↓ -53.1%

K 56.7%

P 3.1%

Kalshi 56.7%

Vol $210 54.3–59¢

Polymarket 3.1%

Vol $32.4K 2.9–3.3¢

10O

$150.01 or above

Vol $21.0K Spread 29.4%

Agg 2.8%

↓ -27.9%

K 30.2%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 30.2%

Vol $1.5K 29.4–30.9¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $19.5K 0.7–0.8¢

10O

$140.01 or above

Vol $26.9K Spread 42.8%

Agg 2.5%

↓ -35.0%

K 43.6%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 43.6%

Vol $1.0K 43–44.2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $25.9K 0.8–0.9¢

10O

$130.01 or above

Vol $65.7K Spread 52.6%

Agg 2.2%

↓ -48.3%

K 54.1%

P 1.5%

Kalshi 54.1%

Vol $900 52.3–55.8¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $64.8K 1.4–1.6¢

10O

$160.01 or above

Vol $36.3K Spread 27.1%

Agg 0.6%

↓ -23.4%

K 27.6%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 27.6%

Vol $235 26.4–28.7¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $36.1K 0.4–0.5¢

1OA

$170 or above

Vol $23.3K Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -1.2%

P 0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $23.3K 0.1–0.2¢

2OA

$200 or above

Vol $143.8K Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.5%

P 0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $143.8K 0.1–0.2¢

1OA

$108 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -4.5%

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $0 0–0¢

1OA

$111 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -4.5%

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $0 0–0¢

1OA

$117 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -4.0%

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $0 0–0¢

1OA

$126 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -4.0%

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $0 0–0¢

8OA

$87 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -57.5%

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $0 0–0¢

9OA

$96 or above

Vol $12 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -17.0%

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $12 0–0¢

9OA

$99 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -10.5%

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $0 0–0¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
80O $85.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
90O $95.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
10O $100.01 or above	63.0% ↓ -26.3%	37.0%	$28.6K	Kalshi 100.0% 99.8–99.9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 63.0% 62–64¢ Vol $28.6K	Gemini — —
90O $90.01 or above	57.0% ↓ -43.0%	43.0%	$76	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini 57.0% 26–88¢ Vol $76
10O $135.01 or above	54.5% ↑ +9.5%	—	$3.7K	Kalshi 54.5% 54–55¢ Vol $3.7K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
10O $105.01 or above	33.5% ↓ -44.5%	66.5%	$24.1K	Kalshi 100.0% 96.1–99.7¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 33.5% 33–34¢ Vol $24.1K	Gemini 39.5% 0–79¢ Vol $0
1OA $114 or above	30.0% ↑ +26.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 30.0% 0–60¢ Vol $0
10O $180.01 or above	20.3% ↑ +1.8%	—	$396	Kalshi 20.3% 19.6–21¢ Vol $396	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
10O $110.01 or above	18.0% ↓ -54.6%	82.0%	$27.7K	Kalshi 100.0% 96.2–99.8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 18.0% 17–19¢ Vol $27.7K	Gemini — —
1OA $102 or above	12.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 12.5% 0–25¢ Vol $0
10O $115.01 or above	11.8% ↓ -52.7%	54.4%	$21.2K	Kalshi 64.1% 62.3–66¢ Vol $818	Polymarket 9.8% 9.7–9.8¢ Vol $20.4K	Gemini — —
10O $120.01 or above	8.0% ↓ -55.0%	52.9%	$143.0K	Kalshi 60.6% 60.5–60.6¢ Vol $1.0K	Polymarket 7.6% 7.6–7.7¢ Vol $141.9K	Gemini 21.5% 0–43¢ Vol $0
1OA $123 or above	7.5% ↑ +3.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 7.5% 0–15¢ Vol $0
9OA $93 or above	6.5% ↓ -22.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 6.5% 13–0¢ Vol $0
10O $125.01 or above	3.4% ↓ -53.1%	53.6%	$32.6K	Kalshi 56.7% 54.3–59¢ Vol $210	Polymarket 3.1% 2.9–3.3¢ Vol $32.4K	Gemini — —
10O $150.01 or above	2.8% ↓ -27.9%	29.4%	$21.0K	Kalshi 30.2% 29.4–30.9¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $19.5K	Gemini — —
10O $140.01 or above	2.5% ↓ -35.0%	42.8%	$26.9K	Kalshi 43.6% 43–44.2¢ Vol $1.0K	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $25.9K	Gemini — —
10O $130.01 or above	2.2% ↓ -48.3%	52.6%	$65.7K	Kalshi 54.1% 52.3–55.8¢ Vol $900	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $64.8K	Gemini — —
10O $160.01 or above	0.6% ↓ -23.4%	27.1%	$36.3K	Kalshi 27.6% 26.4–28.7¢ Vol $235	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $36.1K	Gemini — —
1OA $170 or above	0.2% ↓ -1.2%	—	$23.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $23.3K	Gemini — —
2OA $200 or above	0.2% ↓ -0.5%	—	$143.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $143.8K	Gemini — —
1OA $108 or above	0.0% ↓ -4.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢ Vol $0
1OA $111 or above	0.0% ↓ -4.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢ Vol $0
1OA $117 or above	0.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢ Vol $0
1OA $126 or above	0.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢ Vol $0
8OA $87 or above	0.0% ↓ -57.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢ Vol $0
9OA $96 or above	0.0% ↓ -17.0%	—	$12	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢ Vol $12
9OA $99 or above	0.0% ↓ -10.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% 0–0¢ Vol $0