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WTI Oil Price Predictions: How High Will Spot Price Get in 2026?

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Updated 20 minutes ago · 5:42 PM PDT

Prediction markets are pricing oil above $100 by year end as a near-certainty, and the spot price is doing a lot of the work for them. WTI crude has already breached $98 a barrel i March, putting the $100 threshold within striking distance and explaining why the higher price brackets have seen the most trading activity on Kalshi. One important caveat before reading too much into the cross-platform data: Kalshi's oil markets resolve against the end-of-year price, while Polymarket prices monthly contracts. They're not answering the same question, and the volume split heavily favors Kalshi's annual markets as a result. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for price of oil in 2026 is updated every 30 minutes with probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Largest Spread

0.00%

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$85.01 or above +0.5%

24H Volume (Share)

$201.9K

Momentum Leader

+0.5%

$85.01 or above YTD change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Kalshi vs. Polymarket price of oil markets

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

80O

$85.01 or above

Vol $39.6K Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +0.5%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $39.6K 0–100¢

90O

$90.01 or above

Vol $25.3K Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +0.5%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $25.3K 0–100¢

$48

Vol $301 Spread —

Agg 98.9%

— +0.0%

P 98.9%

Polymarket 98.9%

Vol $301 98–99.7¢

$52

Vol $497 Spread —

Agg 98.6%

— +0.0%

P 98.6%

Polymarket 98.6%

Vol $497 97.5–99.7¢

$56

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 97.4%

↓ -0.1%

P 97.4%

Polymarket 97.4%

Vol $0 96–98.8¢

$60

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 93.5%

— +0.0%

P 93.5%

Polymarket 93.5%

Vol $0 90–97¢

$64

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 90.5%

↓ -0.5%

P 90.5%

Polymarket 90.5%

Vol $0 85–96¢

90O

$95.01 or above

Vol $35.0K Spread —

Agg 86.5%

↓ -11.0%

K 86.5%

Kalshi 86.5%

Vol $35.0K 84–89¢

$76

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 83.0%

↓ -8.0%

P 83.0%

Polymarket 83.0%

Vol $0 73–93¢

10O

$100.01 or above

Vol $10.4K Spread —

Agg 80.0%

↓ -12.0%

K 80.0%

Kalshi 80.0%

Vol $10.4K 78–82¢

10O

$105.01 or above

Vol $4.4K Spread —

Agg 72.0%

↓ -25.5%

K 72.0%

Kalshi 72.0%

Vol $4.4K 66–78¢

$80

Vol $137 Spread —

Agg 70.5%

↓ -24.5%

P 70.5%

Polymarket 70.5%

Vol $137 54–87¢

10O

$110.01 or above

Vol $3.9K Spread —

Agg 68.0%

↓ -24.5%

K 68.0%

Kalshi 68.0%

Vol $3.9K 63–73¢

$72

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 59.0%

↓ -22.5%

P 59.0%

Polymarket 59.0%

Vol $0 23–95¢

10O

$115.01 or above

Vol $7.3K Spread —

Agg 57.5%

↓ -37.0%

K 57.5%

Kalshi 57.5%

Vol $7.3K 56–59¢

$68

Vol $52 Spread —

Agg 50.5%

↓ -44.5%

P 50.5%

Polymarket 50.5%

Vol $52 9–92¢

10O

$120.01 or above

Vol $16.3K Spread —

Agg 50.0%

↓ -30.0%

K 50.0%

Kalshi 50.0%

Vol $16.3K 48–52¢

$84

Vol $210 Spread —

Agg 49.0%

↓ -28.0%

P 49.0%

Polymarket 49.0%

Vol $210 14–84¢

10O

$125.01 or above

Vol $7.4K Spread —

Agg 40.0%

↓ -32.0%

K 40.0%

Kalshi 40.0%

Vol $7.4K 38–42¢

10O

$130.01 or above

Vol $12.6K Spread —

Agg 36.0%

↓ -35.0%

K 36.0%

Kalshi 36.0%

Vol $12.6K 35–37¢

10O

$135.01 or above

Vol $5.7K Spread —

Agg 32.0%

↓ -29.0%

K 32.0%

Kalshi 32.0%

Vol $5.7K 27–37¢

10O

$140.01 or above

Vol $11.8K Spread —

Agg 28.0%

↓ -20.5%

K 28.0%

Kalshi 28.0%

Vol $11.8K 27–29¢

10O

$150.01 or above

Vol $11.1K Spread —

Agg 27.5%

↓ -4.5%

K 27.5%

Kalshi 27.5%

Vol $11.1K 25–30¢

10O

$160.01 or above

Vol $4.2K Spread —

Agg 19.5%

↓ -7.0%

K 19.5%

Kalshi 19.5%

Vol $4.2K 18–21¢

10O

$180.01 or above

Vol $5.7K Spread —

Agg 15.5%

— +0.0%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $5.7K 15–16¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
80O $85.01 or above	100.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$39.6K	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $39.6K	Polymarket — —
90O $90.01 or above	100.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$25.3K	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $25.3K	Polymarket — —
48 $48	98.9% — +0.0%	—	$301	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 98.9% 98–99.7¢ Vol $301
52 $52	98.6% — +0.0%	—	$497	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 98.6% 97.5–99.7¢ Vol $497
56 $56	97.4% ↓ -0.1%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 97.4% 96–98.8¢ Vol $0
60 $60	93.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 93.5% 90–97¢ Vol $0
64 $64	90.5% ↓ -0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 90.5% 85–96¢ Vol $0
90O $95.01 or above	86.5% ↓ -11.0%	—	$35.0K	Kalshi 86.5% 84–89¢ Vol $35.0K	Polymarket — —
76 $76	83.0% ↓ -8.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 83.0% 73–93¢ Vol $0
10O $100.01 or above	80.0% ↓ -12.0%	—	$10.4K	Kalshi 80.0% 78–82¢ Vol $10.4K	Polymarket — —
10O $105.01 or above	72.0% ↓ -25.5%	—	$4.4K	Kalshi 72.0% 66–78¢ Vol $4.4K	Polymarket — —
80 $80	70.5% ↓ -24.5%	—	$137	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 70.5% 54–87¢ Vol $137
10O $110.01 or above	68.0% ↓ -24.5%	—	$3.9K	Kalshi 68.0% 63–73¢ Vol $3.9K	Polymarket — —
72 $72	59.0% ↓ -22.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 59.0% 23–95¢ Vol $0
10O $115.01 or above	57.5% ↓ -37.0%	—	$7.3K	Kalshi 57.5% 56–59¢ Vol $7.3K	Polymarket — —
68 $68	50.5% ↓ -44.5%	—	$52	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 50.5% 9–92¢ Vol $52
10O $120.01 or above	50.0% ↓ -30.0%	—	$16.3K	Kalshi 50.0% 48–52¢ Vol $16.3K	Polymarket — —
84 $84	49.0% ↓ -28.0%	—	$210	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 49.0% 14–84¢ Vol $210
10O $125.01 or above	40.0% ↓ -32.0%	—	$7.4K	Kalshi 40.0% 38–42¢ Vol $7.4K	Polymarket — —
10O $130.01 or above	36.0% ↓ -35.0%	—	$12.6K	Kalshi 36.0% 35–37¢ Vol $12.6K	Polymarket — —
10O $135.01 or above	32.0% ↓ -29.0%	—	$5.7K	Kalshi 32.0% 27–37¢ Vol $5.7K	Polymarket — —
10O $140.01 or above	28.0% ↓ -20.5%	—	$11.8K	Kalshi 28.0% 27–29¢ Vol $11.8K	Polymarket — —
10O $150.01 or above	27.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$11.1K	Kalshi 27.5% 25–30¢ Vol $11.1K	Polymarket — —
10O $160.01 or above	19.5% ↓ -7.0%	—	$4.2K	Kalshi 19.5% 18–21¢ Vol $4.2K	Polymarket — —
10O $180.01 or above	15.5% — +0.0%	—	$5.7K	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $5.7K	Polymarket — —

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.