Prediction Markets Oil Spot Price Predictions

Oil Price Predictions and Odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket

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Updated 44 minutes ago · 12:26 PM PDT

Prediction markets are pricing oil above $100 by year end as a near-certainty, and the spot price is doing a lot of the work for them. WTI crude has already breached $98 a barrel i March, putting the $100 threshold within striking distance and explaining why the higher price brackets have seen the most trading activity on Kalshi. One important caveat before reading too much into the cross-platform data: Kalshi's oil markets resolve against the end-of-year price, while Polymarket prices monthly contracts. They're not answering the same question, and the volume split heavily favors Kalshi's annual markets as a result. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for price of oil in 2026 is updated every 30 minutes with probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Largest Spread

33.45%

$115.01 or above

Current Favorite

100.0%

$100.01 or above 0.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$40.2K

Momentum Leader

0.0%

$100.01 or above 30D change

Probability Over Time

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Oil Price Predictions: Probability of Reaching $150/bbl

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

10O

$100.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 12.1–100¢

10O

$105.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

10O

$110.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

80O

$85.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

—

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 —

90O

$90.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

—

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 —

90O

$95.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 —

9OA

$99 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 36.5%

—

G 36.5%

Gemini 36.5%

Vol $0 —

10O

$115.01 or above

Vol $7.4K Spread 33.5%

Agg 33.5%

↓ -31.1%

K 33.5%

P 0.0%

1OA

$114 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 30.0%

—

G 30.0%

Gemini 30.0%

Vol $0 —

9OA

$96 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 30.0%

—

G 30.0%

Gemini 30.0%

Vol $0 —

10O

$120.01 or above

Vol $3.2K Spread 29.5%

Agg 29.5%

↓ -28.9%

K 29.5%

P 0.0%

8OA

$87 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 29.5%

—

G 29.5%

Gemini 29.5%

Vol $0 —

10O

$125.01 or above

Vol $1.3K Spread 28.2%

Agg 28.2%

↓ -22.5%

K 28.2%

P 0.0%

10O

$130.01 or above

Vol $1.6K Spread 23.8%

Agg 23.8%

↓ -20.4%

K 23.8%

P 0.0%

10O

$135.01 or above

Vol $3.2K Spread —

Agg 23.0%

↓ -17.4%

K 23.0%

Kalshi 23.0%

Vol $3.2K 22.5–23.5¢

10O

$140.01 or above

Vol $4.9K Spread 19.0%

Agg 19.0%

↓ -15.5%

K 19.0%

P 0.0%

10O

$150.01 or above

Vol $7.2K Spread 19.0%

Agg 19.0%

↓ -12.3%

K 19.0%

P 0.0%

10O

$160.01 or above

Vol $4.1K Spread 18.0%

Agg 18.0%

↓ -7.1%

K 18.0%

P 0.0%

1OA

$108 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 15.0%

—

G 15.0%

Gemini 15.0%

Vol $0 —

10O

$180.01 or above

Vol $7.3K Spread —

Agg 14.5%

↓ -4.6%

K 14.5%

Kalshi 14.5%

Vol $7.3K 13.7–15.3¢

1OA

$111 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 12.0%

—

G 12.0%

Gemini 12.0%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$123 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.5%

—

G 7.5%

Gemini 7.5%

Vol $0 —

9OA

$93 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

—

G 6.5%

Gemini 6.5%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$117 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

—

G 5.0%

Gemini 5.0%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$126 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.0%

—

G 1.0%

Gemini 1.0%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$102 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

—

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$170 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

P 0.0%

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $0 0.1¢

2OA

$200 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

P 0.0%

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $0 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
10O $100.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 12.1–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $105.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0
10O $110.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
80O $85.01 or above	100.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
90O $90.01 or above	100.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — — Vol $0
90O $95.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
9OA $99 or above	36.5% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 36.5% — Vol $0
10O $115.01 or above	33.5% ↓ -31.1%	33.5%	$7.4K	Kalshi 33.5% 33.3–33.6¢ Vol $7.4K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
1OA $114 or above	30.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 30.0% — Vol $0
9OA $96 or above	30.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 30.0% — Vol $0
10O $120.01 or above	29.5% ↓ -28.9%	29.5%	$3.2K	Kalshi 29.5% 29.1–29.9¢ Vol $3.2K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0
8OA $87 or above	29.5% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 29.5% — Vol $0
10O $125.01 or above	28.2% ↓ -22.5%	28.2%	$1.3K	Kalshi 28.2% 28–28.5¢ Vol $1.3K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $130.01 or above	23.8% ↓ -20.4%	23.8%	$1.6K	Kalshi 23.8% 23.7–23.8¢ Vol $1.6K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $135.01 or above	23.0% ↓ -17.4%	—	$3.2K	Kalshi 23.0% 22.5–23.5¢ Vol $3.2K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
10O $140.01 or above	19.0% ↓ -15.5%	19.0%	$4.9K	Kalshi 19.0% 18.9–19¢ Vol $4.9K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $150.01 or above	19.0% ↓ -12.3%	19.0%	$7.2K	Kalshi 19.0% 18.3–19.6¢ Vol $7.2K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $160.01 or above	18.0% ↓ -7.1%	18.0%	$4.1K	Kalshi 18.0% 17.7–18.3¢ Vol $4.1K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
1OA $108 or above	15.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 15.0% — Vol $0
10O $180.01 or above	14.5% ↓ -4.6%	—	$7.3K	Kalshi 14.5% 13.7–15.3¢ Vol $7.3K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
1OA $111 or above	12.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 12.0% — Vol $0
1OA $123 or above	7.5% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 7.5% — Vol $0
9OA $93 or above	6.5% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 6.5% — Vol $0
1OA $117 or above	5.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 5.0% — Vol $0
1OA $126 or above	1.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 1.0% — Vol $0
1OA $102 or above	0.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% — Vol $0
1OA $170 or above	0.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
2OA $200 or above	0.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —