Super Bowl MVP Winner Odds

Sam Darnold is the current favorite to win Super Bowl MVP

Sam Darnold leads the MVP market at 44.4% with $43.9K in combined volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, holding steady with a slight 0.9-point uptick. Drake Maye sits second at 26.6% ($12.2K volume), while Jaxon Smith-Njigba rounds out the top three at 14.3% ($11.7K volume) after slipping 0.9 points.

Platform pricing remains tight across the board. Darnold trades 44.5¢ on Kalshi versus 43.5¢ on Polymarket, with similar sub-2% spreads on Maye and Smith-Njigba. Kalshi commands the bulk of the action, accounting for roughly 70% of total volume on each market.

How Super Bowl MVP markets resolve

Kalshi and Polymarket both offer Super Bowl MVP contracts, but they use different market names and resolution rules. Understanding the settlement criteria is important if you’re trading on both platforms.

Kalshi lists the market as “Pro Football Championship Game MVP.” Each player contract resolves to Yes if that player wins the award, verified through the NFL (referred to as “the Governing League” in their rules). The market is mutually exclusive, meaning only one outcome can settle at $1.

Polymarket calls this prop “Pro Football Championship MVP” and includes more detailed edge-case rules. The market resolves based on the official Super Bowl LX MVP Award winner, with the NFL as the primary source. If co-MVPs are named (this has happened once, in Super Bowl XII), the market resolves to whichever player’s last name comes first alphabetically. If the game isn’t completed or no MVP is announced by February 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.”

The key difference: Polymarket explicitly addresses the co-MVP scenario and includes a deadline for resolution. Kalshi’s rules are simpler but don’t specify how ties would be handled. For most, this won’t matter, but it’s worth reading the full rules before taking a large position.

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Position breakdown trends

The current MVP market reflects a familiar reality: quarterbacks dominate this award. Sam Darnold and Drake Maye combine for 71% of implied probability, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the only non-QB commanding meaningful market share at 14.3%.

Historically, this pricing makes sense. Quarterbacks have won 34 of 59 Super Bowl MVPs (57.6%), and that number climbs even higher in recent years. Over the last decade, QBs have taken home 7 of 10 trophies (70%). Wide receivers account for two wins in that span, with Von Miller’s Super Bowl 50 performance representing the lone defensive winner since 2016.

The market’s reluctance to price non-QBs higher reflects a bit of truth: the MVP vote skews heavily toward whoever orchestrates the winning team’s offensive success. Defensive standouts need a historically dominant performance to break through.

Last 10 Super Bowl MVP winners

Source: ESPN Super Bowl History

Patterns worth noting

The winning team’s quarterback is almost always the default choice. Only one player in Super Bowl history, Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V, has won MVP from the losing side.

Patrick Mahomes owns three of the last six awards, showing how a single dominant quarterback can reshape MVP futures pricing. Brady similarly collected two in this window before retiring.

Wide receivers occasionally break through (Kupp, Edelman), but require monster statistical games. Kupp caught the game-winning touchdown. Edelman posted 10 catches for 141 yards in a defensive slugfest. Neither scenario is predictable pre-game.

For bettors, unless you’re fading both starting quarterbacks entirely, MVP futures heavily favor picking which signal-caller will be holding the Lombardi Trophy.