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Fed Chair Nominee Odds and Predictions

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Updated 32 minutes ago · 4:41 PM PST

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Prediction markets currently have Kevin Warsh as the favorite at 41.5% probability of being named, or +141 odds and Kevin Hassett at 36.5%, or +174. Our Fed Chair nominee odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini to show consensus probabilities on who Trump will formally nominate to replace Jerome Powell. Total volume stands at $14.6M in the last 24 hours. It's expected the announcement will come early this month, though markets have set settlement date for Dec. 31, 2026. Our data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing across Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.

Largest Spread

0.33%

Scott Bessent

Consensus Leader

41.5%

Kevin Warsh

24H Volume (Share)

$14.6M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Kevin Warsh

Vol $195.7K Spread 0.0%

Agg 41.5%

↑ +2.7%

K 41.5%

P 41.5%

G 41.5%

Kalshi 41.5%

Vol $27.0K 41–42¢

Polymarket 41.5%

Vol $168.2K 41–42¢

Gemini 41.5%

Vol $434 39–44¢

Kevin Hassett

Vol $170.5K Spread 1.0%

Agg 36.5%

↓ -1.0%

G 37.5%

K 36.5%

P 36.5%

Gemini 37.5%

Vol $241 35–40¢

Kalshi 36.5%

Vol $24.9K 36–37¢

Polymarket 36.5%

Vol $145.3K 36–37¢

Christopher Waller

Vol $98.1K Spread 1.0%

Agg 11.7%

↓ -1.4%

K 12.5%

G 12.0%

P 11.5%

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $19.9K 12–13¢

Gemini 12.0%

Vol $19 10–14¢

Polymarket 11.5%

Vol $78.1K 11.4–11.6¢

Rick Rieder

Vol $95.4K Spread 0.9%

Agg 4.1%

↓ -0.5%

G 5.0%

K 4.5%

P 4.1%

Gemini 5.0%

Vol $268 3–7¢

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $8.2K 4–5¢

Polymarket 4.1%

Vol $86.9K 4–4.2¢

Scott Bessent

Vol $243.5K Spread 1.0%

Agg 2.5%

↑ +0.3%

K 3.5%

P 2.5%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $2.0K 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.5%

Vol $241.5K 2.4–2.6¢

Michelle Bowman

Vol $271.1K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.9%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $2.0K 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $269.1K 1.8–1.9¢

Judy Shelton

Vol $164.3K Spread 0.8%

Agg 1.8%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $2.0K 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $162.3K 1.7–1.8¢

Stephen Miran

Vol $149.4K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $53 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $149.4K 0.2–0.3¢

Jerome Powell

Vol $239.4K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

↑ +0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $7 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $239.4K 0.1–0.2¢

David Malpass

Vol $95.3K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $95.3K 0.1–0.2¢

David Zervos

Vol $102.1K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.1%

↑ +0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $649 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $101.5K 0.2¢

Howard Lutnick

Vol $147.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.1%

↑ +0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $147.8K 0.2¢

Philip Jefferson

Vol $3.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $3.0K 0.1¢

Arthur Laffer

Vol $45.8K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $12 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $45.8K 0.1¢

Ron Paul

Vol $74.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $5 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $74.0K 0.1¢

Marc Sumerlin

Vol $18.9K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $18.9K 0.1¢

Larry Lindsey

Vol $27.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $27.2K 0.1¢

Larry Kudlow

Vol $81.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $9 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $81.2K 0.1¢

Janet Yellen

Vol $702.6K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $702.6K 0.1¢

DTH

Donald Trump (Himself)

Vol $1.5M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $21 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $1.5M 0.1¢

Bill Pulte

Vol $8.4M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $3 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $8.4M 0.1¢

JBB

James B. Bullard

Vol $28.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $28.2K 0.1¢

LKL

Lorie K. Logan

Vol $1.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $1.1K 0.1¢

Barron Trump

Vol $1.6M Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $1.6M 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
KW Kevin Warsh	41.5% ↑ +2.7%	0.0%	$195.7K	Kalshi 41.5% 41–42¢ Vol $27.0K	Polymarket 41.5% 41–42¢ Vol $168.2K	Gemini 41.5% 39–44¢ Vol $434
KH Kevin Hassett	36.5% ↓ -1.0%	1.0%	$170.5K	Kalshi 36.5% 36–37¢ Vol $24.9K	Polymarket 36.5% 36–37¢ Vol $145.3K	Gemini 37.5% 35–40¢ Vol $241
CW Christopher Waller	11.7% ↓ -1.4%	1.0%	$98.1K	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $19.9K	Polymarket 11.5% 11.4–11.6¢ Vol $78.1K	Gemini 12.0% 10–14¢ Vol $19
RR Rick Rieder	4.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.9%	$95.4K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $8.2K	Polymarket 4.1% 4–4.2¢ Vol $86.9K	Gemini 5.0% 3–7¢ Vol $268
SB Scott Bessent	2.5% ↑ +0.3%	1.0%	$243.5K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $2.0K	Polymarket 2.5% 2.4–2.6¢ Vol $241.5K	Gemini — — Vol $0
MB Michelle Bowman	1.9% — +0.0%	0.7%	$271.1K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $2.0K	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $269.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0
JS Judy Shelton	1.8% — +0.0%	0.8%	$164.3K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $2.0K	Polymarket 1.8% 1.7–1.8¢ Vol $162.3K	Gemini — — Vol $0
SM Stephen Miran	0.3% — +0.0%	0.3%	$149.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $53	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $149.4K	Gemini — — Vol $0
JP Jerome Powell	0.2% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$239.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $7	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $239.4K	Gemini — — Vol $0
DM David Malpass	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.4%	$95.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $95.3K	Gemini — — Vol $0
DZ David Zervos	0.1% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$102.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $649	Polymarket 0.1% 0.2¢ Vol $101.5K	Gemini — — Vol $0
HL Howard Lutnick	0.1% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$147.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.1% 0.2¢ Vol $147.8K	Gemini — — Vol $0
PJ Philip Jefferson	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$3.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $3.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0
AL Arthur Laffer	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$45.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $12	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $45.8K	Gemini — — Vol $0
RP Ron Paul	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$74.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $74.0K	Gemini — — Vol $0
MS Marc Sumerlin	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$18.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $18.9K	Gemini — — Vol $0
LL Larry Lindsey	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$27.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $27.2K	Gemini — — Vol $0
LK Larry Kudlow	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$81.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $9	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $81.2K	Gemini — — Vol $0
JY Janet Yellen	0.1% ↓ -0.1%	0.5%	$702.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $702.6K	Gemini — — Vol $0
DTH Donald Trump (Himself)	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$1.5M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $21	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1.5M	Gemini — — Vol $0
BP Bill Pulte	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$8.4M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $8.4M	Gemini — — Vol $0
JBB James B. Bullard	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$28.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $28.2K	Gemini — — Vol $0
LKL Lorie K. Logan	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$1.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0
BT Barron Trump	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$1.6M	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1.6M	Gemini — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.6¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
CW Christopher Waller	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 11.6¢	Sell @ K 12¢	+0.40%	+0.28%	No
JS Judy Shelton	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.8¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
MB Michelle Bowman	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
PJ Philip Jefferson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
AL Arthur Laffer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
RP Ron Paul	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
MS Marc Sumerlin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
LL Larry Lindsey	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
LK Larry Kudlow	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
JY Janet Yellen	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
DTH Donald Trump (Himself)	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
BP Bill Pulte	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
JBB James B. Bullard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
LKL Lorie K. Logan	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
DM David Malpass	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
DZ David Zervos	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
RR Rick Rieder	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.2¢	Sell @ K 4¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
SM Stephen Miran	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No
KW Kevin Warsh	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 42¢	Sell @ P 41¢	-1.00%	-1.42%	No
KH Kevin Hassett	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 37¢	Sell @ P 36¢	-1.00%	-1.37%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
KW Kevin Warsh	JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket	A 41.50%	B 0.15%	+41.35%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	DM David Malpass	Polymarket	A 41.50%	B 0.15%	+41.35%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SM Stephen Miran	Polymarket	A 41.50%	B 0.25%	+41.25%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SM Stephen Miran	Kalshi	A 41.50%	B 0.50%	+41.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JP Jerome Powell	Kalshi	A 41.50%	B 0.50%	+41.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	DM David Malpass	Kalshi	A 41.50%	B 0.50%	+41.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JS Judy Shelton	Polymarket	A 41.50%	B 1.75%	+39.75%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	MB Michelle Bowman	Polymarket	A 41.50%	B 1.85%	+39.65%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	MB Michelle Bowman	Kalshi	A 41.50%	B 2.50%	+39.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JS Judy Shelton	Kalshi	A 41.50%	B 2.50%	+39.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket	A 41.50%	B 2.50%	+39.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SB Scott Bessent	Kalshi	A 41.50%	B 3.50%	+38.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	RR Rick Rieder	Polymarket	A 41.50%	B 4.10%	+37.40%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	RR Rick Rieder	Kalshi	A 41.50%	B 4.50%	+37.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	RR Rick Rieder	Gemini	A 41.50%	B 5.00%	+36.50%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 0.15%	+36.35%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	DM David Malpass	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 0.15%	+36.35%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	SM Stephen Miran	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 0.25%	+36.25%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	SM Stephen Miran	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 0.50%	+36.00%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	JP Jerome Powell	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 0.50%	+36.00%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	DM David Malpass	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 0.50%	+36.00%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	JS Judy Shelton	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 1.75%	+34.75%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	MB Michelle Bowman	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 1.85%	+34.65%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	MB Michelle Bowman	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 2.50%	+34.00%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	JS Judy Shelton	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 2.50%	+34.00%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 2.50%	+34.00%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	SB Scott Bessent	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 3.50%	+33.00%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	RR Rick Rieder	Gemini	A 37.50%	B 5.00%	+32.50%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	RR Rick Rieder	Polymarket	A 36.50%	B 4.10%	+32.40%	Buy spread
KH Kevin Hassett	RR Rick Rieder	Kalshi	A 36.50%	B 4.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.