Coinbase Prediction Markets: Referral Code, Legal Status and App Review

Coinbase added prediction markets to its app in January 2026, making it the largest consumer platform to offer event contract trading alongside crypto and traditional assets. The product is called Predict, and it gives Coinbase’s existing user base a way to bet on sports outcomes, elections, crypto prices, economic data, and cultural events in a single app. Trades start at $1, funded from your existing Coinbase balance in USD or USDC.

What Coinbase doesn’t advertise as clearly is that Predict isn’t its own exchange. Every trade routes through Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market that also powers prediction contracts on Robinhood. Coinbase layers on its own interface, adds a broker fee on top of Kalshi’s, and handles the trade through Coinbase Financial Markets. There is no Coinbase Predicts promo code or welcome offer right now. If you want a signup bonus, your best bet is Kalshi, which is offering all new users $10 free with code DEFI after $10 in trades.

This review covers my overall experience and what I could find when I tested Coinbase Predict, where the app wins and falls short.

Kalshi vs. Coinbase: Lower fees and better bonus at Kalshi

Prediction Market

Available in all 50 states

$10 bonus

Trade $10, Get $10 Free

CODE: DEFI

Trade Now

Contracts available for Olympics, NBA Championship & Mentions

Prediction Market

Available in 49 states

$0 bonus

No prediction bonus available

Trade on Coinbase

Kalshi fees + Coinbase brokerage fees

Coinbase market details

Coinbase referral code and signup bonus

Coinbase does not have a prediction markets promo code. There is no welcome bonus, deposit match, or signup offer tied to the Predict product.

What Coinbase does offer is a general referral bonus for new users. If you don’t already have a Coinbase account, signing up through a referral link can earn you up to $200 in Bitcoin. The requirements: deposit at least $25, complete a qualifying crypto trade of $100 or more within 180 days, and the bonus credits to your account. This applies to crypto trading only — prediction market trades do not count toward the requirement. But if you’re coming to Coinbase for predictions, there’s a good chance you’re also interested in crypto, and the bonus is worth claiming while you’re setting up.

If you’re signing up specifically to trade predictions and want a bonus on those trades, Kalshi is the better option. Every Coinbase prediction routes through Kalshi’s exchange anyway. This includes contracts, pricing, and counterparties. It’s all identical. The main difference is you get a bonus at Kalshi, you earn interest between 3.75% and 4% APY and you’ll pay lower fees since you’re trading directly on the exchange without Coinbase’s broker markup. The tradeoff is a separate account, but signup takes under five minutes. For a full breakdown of what each platform is offering, see our prediction market promos page.

Robinhood also routes prediction trades to Kalshi, making it structurally identical to Coinbase Predict. But Robinhood’s signup bonus is $5–10 in free stock (98% chance of the low end), not crypto. If you’re interested in both predictions and crypto, Coinbase’s referral bonus is the stronger offer even though it requires a $25 deposit and $100 crypto trade to unlock.

How Coinbase Predict works

Compared to what I found at Kalshi and Polymarket, Coinbase is super simple. The Predict tab gives you a grid of market cards across sports, crypto, politics, economics, and a handful of other categories. Each card shows the probability, 24-hour volume, and what a $100 position pays out. It’s was a little too simple for my liking and lacked the community features and market depth that Kalshi and Polymarket both offer.

In my opinion, it felt like it was built to deter Coinbase users from moving away from Coinbase and into Kalshi or Polymarket.

The way the markets work is simple. Each market has a Yes or No question. For example, if you click on Kansas St. at Houston, you’re choosing whether Kansas State wins or doesn’t. You pick a side, enter a dollar amount, and buy. If you’re right, the contract pays out $1. If you’re wrong, you lose what you put in. So if “Yes” is priced at 62¢, you’re paying 62 cents to win a dollar — that spread is where your profit comes from.

The left side shows a “Make your prediction” panel where you enter a dollar amount, pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and hit “Buy prediction.” The right side shows a probability chart with 1H, 1D, 1W, and All views, plus key stats: expiry date, open interest, 24-hour volume, and total market size.

Scrolling down, I found the About section explaining the settlement rules, a Timeline & payout section showing when the market closes and how long settlement takes (usually within 24 hours of the outcome, with projected payout five minutes after), and Trading prohibitions listing who can’t trade the contract — current and former players, coaches, staff, owners, and their immediate family members.

One thing that stood out — Coinbase is market orders only. There’s no limit order option and no order book. You see the current price, enter a dollar amount, and buy at whatever the market gives you. If it is there, I couldn’t find it.

If you’re used to setting a limit and waiting for a fill, Coinbase’s approach will feel restrictive. If you’ve never traded a prediction market before and just want to bet on tonight’s basketball game through Coinbase, it’s exactly the right amount of friction.

One detail I noticed browsing Coinbase’s market pages is the “Discover more” section at the bottom. Below any prediction market, Coinbase surfaces Popular prediction markets, Popular derivatives, Popular cryptocurrencies, and Popular cryptocurrency conversions — all on the same page. This is the “everything exchange” strategy in action.

The other notable difference is how Coinbase presents pricing. Coinbase shows dollar amounts: “$100 → $10,000” for a 1% outcome. Kalshi shows contract pricing in cents: “Yes · 1¢.” Both represent the same underlying math — a 1¢ contract pays $1 if correct, so 100 contracts at 1¢ costs $1 and pays $100.

But Coinbase’s framing is designed to make the potential payout feel tangible to someone who’s never thought in terms of contracts. It works for casual users but obscures the per-contract economics that matter when you’re comparing fees or evaluating value.

Getting started

To start trading, you need a Coinbase account plus a separate CFM onboarding step. This isn’t just a checkbox — Coinbase reviews your age, trading experience, occupation, income, and net worth to determine suitability, and applications can be rejected. You’re limited to three application attempts per day, with a seven-day cooldown if you exceed that.

This is more involved than signing up on Kalshi, where standard KYC gets you in, or Polymarket, which requires only a crypto wallet.

Your funds move from your primary Coinbase balance into a separate CFM predictions balance when you buy, and winnings auto-transfer back to your primary account every two hours between 6am and 4pm ET on business days. There are no transfers on weekends or bank holidays.

Available markets and categories

The underlying markets are all Kalshi markets, but I wasn’t able to find every Kalshi market on Coinbase — the selection appears to be a curated subset. If you’re looking for a specific niche market that isn’t showing up, check Kalshi directly before assuming it doesn’t exist.

The Mentions category surprised me. It’s not just NFL broadcast mentions — it spans pop culture, press conferences, earnings calls, and sports. If you’ve seen Kalshi’s mentions markets and assumed they were limited to game broadcasts, the full scope here is broader than you’d expect.

Coinbase Predict fees

Unlike other prediction markets, I could not find a fee schedule anywhere on Coinbase. It’s as if it’s not public. There’s no formula on their website, no fee page in the help center, and no way to calculate what you’ll pay before opening the trade preview screen. The only place you see your fee is on the order confirmation page, after you’ve selected a market, picked a side, and entered an amount.

This is a legitimate criticism. Coinbase gives you nothing to work with until you’re one tap away from buying.

What I do know: Coinbase charges more than Kalshi direct. Coinbase adds a broker markup on top of Kalshi’s base fee. The closest thing to an explanation is buried in the FAQ dropdown on individual market pages, where Coinbase says the fee “covers costs for operating the market and the broker fee” and that “fees vary by market.” That’s the extent of their public disclosure.

I haven’t been able to determine the exact markup formula, and Coinbase hasn’t responded to requests for clarification. I will update this review with a side-by-side fee comparison using identical trades on both platforms once I complete testing. Until then, the takeaway is straightforward: you will pay more to bet on Coinbase than you would placing the same bet on Kalshi directly.

This is not new. I covered the same problem in my MetaMask/Polymarket analysis — MetaMask charges a 4% fee on every Polymarket trade for the convenience of trading inside the wallet rather than navigating to Polymarket’s interface. Coinbase is doing the same thing with Kalshi — layering a broker fee on top of an existing exchange so you don’t have to leave the Coinbase app. Convenience has a price, and in both cases, the platform doesn’t make it easy to see how much that price is.

Learn more: How prediction market fees work

Is Coinbase Predict legal?

Yes. Coinbase Predict is legal in 49 states. It operates through Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and NFA member. This is a federally regulated product on a federally regulated exchange.

The complication is that several states disagree with that framing. Coinbase launched Predict to all 50 states on January 28, 2026, and within 24 hours preemptively sued Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan in federal court, seeking orders that prediction markets fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction. Rather than waiting for states to come after it, Coinbase sued first.

Nevada’s Gaming Control Board filed its own enforcement action on February 2, alleging Coinbase’s sports contracts constitute unlicensed wagering. A state court declined to immediately shut Coinbase down but scheduled a hearing. Coinbase countersued in federal court three days later. Courts have sided with the NGCB in similar cases against Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Polymarket — all three blocked Nevada users. In Illinois, 23 tribal nations filed to intervene, arguing prediction markets threaten tribal gaming compacts. Connecticut heard oral arguments but hasn’t ruled. Michigan is pending.

One thing worth noting: CFM and KalshiEX are separate legal entities. A ruling against Kalshi doesn’t automatically apply to Coinbase, and vice versa.

Coinbase Predict vs. Kalshi

Since the contracts are identical on both platforms, the difference is what each wraps around them. Coinbase gives you a unified app with crypto and predictions in one portfolio. Kalshi gives you lower fees, limit orders, an order book, and interest on your balance. For a broader look at how all the prediction sites stack up, see our full comparison. Here’s how Coinbase and Kalshi compare head-to-head:

Deposits and withdrawals

Coinbase Predict doesn’t require a separate deposit. Trades are funded from your existing Coinbase USD or USDC balance — the same money you’d use to buy crypto. When you place a prediction, funds move from your primary account into a separate CFM predictions balance. When a position settles, winnings auto-transfer back to your primary account every two hours between 6am and 4pm ET on business days. There are no transfers on weekends or bank holidays.

That means there’s no withdrawal step specific to predictions. Your winnings land back in your main Coinbase balance, and from there you can withdraw to your bank, spend, or trade as you normally would.

Coinbase supports ACH bank transfer (free), wire transfer ($10 incoming fee), debit card, PayPal, Apple Pay, and crypto. PayPal and Apple Pay are notable differentiators — Kalshi doesn’t support either. Deposit fees vary by method, and Coinbase doesn’t publish a consolidated schedule, so check the transaction screen before confirming.

Tax reporting

Coinbase Financial Markets issues Form 1099-B for futures activity, and prediction market trades route through the same entity. Coinbase has not published specific guidance on how prediction market P&L appears in its tax reporting tools, but traders should expect to receive tax documentation from CFM for reportable activity. Coinbase also issues Form 1099-MISC for USDC rewards over $600, and starting with the 2025 tax year, Form 1099-DA for digital asset sales.

The harder question is how to classify prediction market gains. The IRS hasn’t issued guidance, and tax professionals are split on whether event contracts should be treated as capital gains, gambling income, or Section 1256 contracts. This matters because each classification carries different rates, deduction limits, and reporting requirements. Keep detailed records of every trade, and talk to a tax advisor before filing.

If you trade on both Coinbase and Kalshi directly, expect separate tax documents from each entity — CFM and KalshiEX are different legal entities with different reporting obligations.

User feedback and app experience

Coinbase’s main app carries strong ratings — 4.6 out of 5 on the iOS App Store across 185,000+ reviews, 4.5 out of 5 on Google Play with over 900,000 reviews, and 4 out of 5 on Trustpilot from roughly 21,500 reviews. These ratings reflect the full Coinbase experience, not just predictions, so take that into consideration as it doesn’t tell you the full picture of what to expect with predictions.

The Predict tab inherits that polish. Navigation is clean, market cards load quickly, and placing a trade is genuinely fast — select a market, pick a side, enter your amount, confirm. During Super Bowl LX weekend, the app handled live trading without noticeable lag or pricing delays, but Coinbase does not have the same volume of users as Kalshi or Polymarket.

Where the experience breaks down is search. The in-app search tool assumes your intent before you’ve finished typing, and the auto-suggestions pull from Coinbase’s full product catalog rather than filtering to predictions. Try searching for “Super Bowl” and the app interrupts to surface crypto assets and stock tickers instead of prediction markets. It works if you persist through a few attempts, but it’s friction that shouldn’t exist in a product this mature.

What Coinbase doesn’t offer is a social layer. I couldn’t find comments, community feeds, or any way to see what large traders are doing. Polymarket has whale-watching tools and an active trading community. Kalshi has a Discord. Both have live chat feeds built into each market. Coinbase keeps the experience transactional and private, which is either a feature or a gap depending on how you trade.

Customer support routes through general Coinbase channels — I couldn’t find a prediction-specific support line or chat queue. Coinbase offers a help center, chatbot, and live chat, but when I tested support, response times were slow and getting to a human took more effort than it should. If you’re a Coinbase One subscriber you get priority support (I’m not), so the base experience is frustrating for anything beyond simple issues.

One detail worth watching: during the Q4 2025 earnings call, CEO Brian Armstrong confirmed that the Kalshi arrangement is non-exclusive and that Coinbase has the ability to launch its own prediction markets. Nothing is announced yet, but the comment signals that the current product may not be the permanent architecture.

Responsible trading

Coinbase does not offer any prediction-specific responsible trading tools — no deposit limits, cooling-off periods, or self-exclusion. Kalshi does offer voluntary trading breaks, self-exclusion, and funding caps. But Kalshi’s self-exclusion explicitly does not apply to trades placed through a futures commission merchant, and Coinbase Financial Markets is a registered FCM. A trader who self-excludes on Kalshi could continue trading the same contracts through Coinbase without restriction.

This gap is drawing attention from lawmakers and regulators. Days before Super Bowl LX, New York Attorney General Letitia James issued a consumer alert warning that prediction markets “do not have the same consumer protections as regulated platforms” and operate without the safeguards New Yorkers expect from licensed gambling operators — including self-exclusion tools, underage gambling prevention, and restrictions on predatory advertising.

In Congress, Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act on February 10, calling prediction markets “predatory practices” that circumvent state gaming laws. Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont has proposed restricting prediction market access to users 21 and older. Illinois legislators have filed bills requiring responsible gambling safeguards and advertising restrictions for prediction market operators.

If you or someone you know is struggling with compulsive gambling or trading behavior, the following resources offer free, confidential support:

• National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700 (call or text, 24/7) or chat at ncpgambling.org
• Gamblers Anonymous: gamblersanonymous.org
• SAMHSA National Helpline: 1-800-662-4357 (free, confidential, 24/7)

FAQs

What is Coinbase Predict and how does it work?

A prediction markets product inside the Coinbase app. You trade Yes/No contracts on sports, politics, crypto, economics, and other events. Every trade routes to Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated exchange through Coinbase Financial Markets. Trades start at $1, funded from your existing Coinbase balance.

How much does it cost to trade on Coinbase Predict?

Coinbase doesn’t publish a fee schedule. Each trade includes Kalshi’s exchange fee plus a Coinbase broker markup, but you only see the total on the order confirmation screen. You’ll pay more than trading the same contract on Kalshi directly, where the fee formula is public.

Am I just trading on Kalshi through Coinbase?

Essentially, yes. Same contracts, same order book, same settlement. Coinbase adds its own interface and a broker fee. What you give up versus Kalshi direct: lower fees, limit orders, order book visibility, and interest on your balance.

Is it legal to trade predictions on Coinbase?

Yes — it’s a federally regulated product operating through a CFTC-registered FCM. Available in 49 states. Nevada is excluded after an enforcement action, and lawsuits are active in Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan. The central legal question — derivatives or gambling — remains unresolved.

Do I earn interest on money sitting in my predictions balance?

No. Funds in your CFM predictions balance earn nothing. Kalshi pays 3.75–4% APY on cash and open positions with no subscription required.

How do I get my winnings out?

You don’t need to do anything — winnings auto-transfer from your CFM predictions balance to your primary Coinbase account every two hours, 6 AM–4 PM ET, business days only. No weekend or holiday transfers. From there, withdraw to your bank as you normally would.

Is there a promo code for Coinbase Predict?

No prediction-specific promo exists. The general Coinbase referral offers up to $200 in BTC for new users, but prediction trades don’t count toward the requirement. For a bonus on prediction trading, Kalshi offers $10 free with code DEFI after $10 in trades.